WI: Axis Strategic Cooperation

Upon signing the Tri-Partite pact in late September of 1940, Germany, Italy and Japan realized that to achieve their true aims, they would eventually have to be at war with the British, USA and USSR. Realizing the combined economic and military power this could represent, they conclude that the best way to ensure victory is to cooperate on a strategic level. (POD here is that Hitler doesn't underestimate the Russians and consider the US to be one big razor blade factory).

Hitler admitted that an invasion of England was probably not going to happen, and that he planned on attacking the Soviet Union as soon as possible. The Italian foreign minister was eager for a commitment of forces in the balkans and North Africa. Japan needed access to raw material and oil.

Thought this would be a fun discussion. Suggestions include Japan, although not declaring war on USSR, stops US made goods from getting into Vladivostok. Also, after conquest of DEI and raid into Indian Ocean, invades Ceylon, the Maldives and Diego Garcia. Possibly also go after the Seychelles and stop British from importing mid east oil? Stop reinforcements to Russia through Iran? How about a recognition that they need Malta?

Scottyp said:

Upon signing the Tri-Partite pact in late September of 1940, Germany, Italy and Japan realized that to achieve their true aims, they would eventually have to be at war with the British, USA and USSR. Realizing the combined economic and military power this could represent, they conclude that the best way to ensure victory is to cooperate on a strategic level. (POD here is that Hitler doesn't underestimate the Russians and consider the US to be one big razor blade factory).

Hitler admitted that an invasion of England was probably not going to happen, and that he planned on attacking the Soviet Union as soon as possible. The Italian foreign minister was eager for a commitment of forces in the balkans and North Africa. Japan needed access to raw material and oil.

Thought this would be a fun discussion. Suggestions include Japan, although not declaring war on USSR, stops US made goods from getting into Vladivostok. Also, after conquest of DEI and raid into Indian Ocean, invades Ceylon, the Maldives and Diego Garcia. Possibly also go after the Seychelles and stop British from importing mid east oil? Stop reinforcements to Russia through Iran? How about a recognition that they need Malta?

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Is this supposed to be a serious thread or a joke? Because the idea that Japan was ever in any kind of position to take over Ceylon, Maldives or Diego Garcia is fantasy.

And when exactly did US convoys sail into Vladivostok? I'm pretty sure the Soviet Union was supplied with the Artic Convoys or via the Middle East.

And there was never a question the Axis needed Malta, but taking it is a completely different matter, especially since the german paratroopers were gutted as a fighting force in Crete.

yeah,i just dont see them working together.especially japan.
sinking convoys to russia isnt going to help them at all

You are overestimating Japan too much. As stated earlier....darn.

Just as an aside, the U.S. alone had about 40% more warmaking economic potential than ALL THREE Axis states combined.

If the Axis had ever, even for an instant, considered economics the war would never have happened.

cbr said:

And when exactly did US convoys sail into Vladivostok? I'm pretty sure the Soviet Union was supplied with the Artic Convoys or via the Middle East.

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There weren't U.S. convoys sailing to Vladivostok, it was all done with Soviet shipping, but the Vladivostok route was the largest of the 3 Lend-Lease routes to the USSR.

Eastern Russia

How about the Axis powers decide that the real enemy is Communism!? They all three decide to attack Rusia at the same time. Italy through the south, Germany proceeds about as OTL. Japan attacks from the east. Japaneese forces move to cut Russia in two. Russias forces are streached even thinner haveing to fight Japan too. America no friend of communism remains nutural. President Hoover alows American oil to land at Axis held ports.

xchen08 said:

There weren't U.S. convoys sailing to Vladivostok, it was all done with Soviet shipping, but the Vladivostok route was the largest of the 3 Lend-Lease routes to the USSR.

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Actually there was American shipping to Vladivostok, but Soviet flags were used to prevent Japanese interception.

cclittle said:

How about the Axis powers decide that the real enemy is Communism!? They all three decide to attack Rusia at the same time. Italy through the south, Germany proceeds about as OTL. Japan attacks from the east. Japaneese forces move to cut Russia in two. Russias forces are streached even thinner haveing to fight Japan too. America no friend of communism remains nutural. President Hoover alows American oil to land at Axis held ports.

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President Hoover?

In 1940?

cbr said:

Is this supposed to be a serious thread or a joke? Because the idea that Japan was ever in any kind of position to take over Ceylon, Maldives or Diego Garcia is fantasy.

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Japanese carrier based aircraft attacked Ceylon in early 1942 and the Japanese had been planning to base submarines in Vichy controlled Madagascar prior to British occupation of the Island. Diego Garcia would not present an impossible option for a raid or attack. It would not necessarily be very productive to occupy and would subsequently be isolated but it isn’t impossible to take.

cbr said:

And there was never a question the Axis needed Malta, but taking it is a completely different matter, especially since the german paratroopers were gutted as a fighting force in Crete.

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Prior to Greece there was planning to attack Malta with paratroops. An attack on Malta as opposed to Crete would have been a much more difficult assignment, the compact nature of the Island would be much better for defence.

The only way this would happen is if you eliminate the Japanese-Soviet border wars in 1939.

But if you do that then any Japanese attack on the Soviets would be met with miserable failure anyway.

CalBear said:

Just as an aside, the U.S. alone had about 40% more warmaking economic potential than ALL THREE Axis states combined.

If the Axis had ever, even for an instant, considered economics the war would never have happened.

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Here's Paul Kennedy's table, perhaps my favourite statistic ever.
http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm

A grimmer table of Statistics for you Riain:
http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/civilian_casualties_of_world_war.htm

Japanese carrier based aircraft attacked Ceylon in early 1942 and the Japanese had been planning to base submarines in Vichy controlled Madagascar prior to British occupation of the Island. Diego Garcia would not present an impossible option for a raid or attack. It would not necessarily be very productive to occupy and would subsequently be isolated but it isn’t impossible to take.

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Carrier based aircraft attacked Hawaii too, that still doesn't mean Japan was in anyway capable of taking it, just like german land based aircraft attacked London and yet they weren't able to take that, did they? There's a long road to walk from being able to bomb something, to being able to invade that something.

Prior to Greece there was planning to attack Malta with paratroops. An attack on Malta as opposed to Crete would have been a much more difficult assignment, the compact nature of the Island would be much better for defence.

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Agreed.

cbr said:

Carrier based aircraft attacked Hawaii too, that still doesn't mean Japan was in anyway capable of taking it, just like german land based aircraft attacked London and yet they weren't able to take that, did they? There's a long road to walk from being able to bomb something, to being able to invade that something.

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In early 1942 the Japanese dominated the seas of S.E. Asia and prior to the Battle of the Coral Sea it was all going their way. Landing a small force of marines after pounding Diego Garcia wouldn’t present any great difficulty. The value in doing so would be doubtful, there are several better targets.

cbr said:

Carrier based aircraft attacked Hawaii too, that still doesn't mean Japan was in anyway capable of taking it, just like german land based aircraft attacked London and yet they weren't able to take that, did they? There's a long road to walk from being able to bomb something, to being able to invade that something.

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Have a Pearl Harbour POD where Japan is able to attack (as planned IIRC) the naval base's facilities (cranes, fuel tanks, ship repair assets), making the base unusable for the US Navy. In his Pacific War, John Costello states that even with the intact US carriers it would practically have forced the USN back to operate from San Diego until Pearl could be fully repaired.

That gives Japan some maneuver room for other offensives - Midway probably falls, for example.

Anyway, even a more successful Japan would concentrate its efforts to the South, not against the Soviet Union. First, the resources they needed (oil in particular) was to the south, not in Siberia. Also, you have to integrate the various struggling factions that composed the Japanese High command: the Army competing with the Navy, General Araki's Kodoha competing against the General Ugaki's Toseiha, the consequences of the 2-2-36 coup attempt...

You can have a Japan much more successful (winning the battle of the Coral Sea would do the trick) and coordinating more with Germany, but going North doesn't offer as many spoils as going south.

A Japan going north is totally realistic, though, provided you have the 2-2-36 coup succeed and impose General Araki's views of a preemptive strike against Soviet Russia.

xchen08 said:

There weren't U.S. convoys sailing to Vladivostok, it was all done with Soviet shipping, but the Vladivostok route was the largest of the 3 Lend-Lease routes to the USSR.

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If Japan did start attack convoys, it's possible that the Soviet Union will kick them out of Manchuria quicker.

well with germany and italy attacking russia at that time,i dont think stalin would be crazy enough to attack manchuria

marked56 said:

well with germany and italy attacking russia at that time,i dont think stalin would be crazy enough to attack manchuria

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He would if his main Lend Lease route was being cut off. Anyway, he'd only need around 10 divisions with maybe 2 more armoured divisions to kick the Japanese out of Sakhalin and Manchuria, that isn't too much for a 200+Division Army.

yes but remember that this is in the 1940s germanys winning.russia needs every man it can get and besides,didnt russia sign a non-aggression pact or something with japan?