WI Vichy France contests invasion of French Indochina?

What if when Japan invaded French Indochina in September, Vichy France makes a serious effort to oppose this, and why did they not IOTL? They could sortie their navy in an attempt to send reinforcements. Such a mission could be caused by their desire to assert themselves as the rightful ruler of their colonies, and gain legitimacy as a regime in the eyes of the world.

Such a move would first have to deal with the fact that Vichy France would have to make a deal with the British just to get out of the Mediterranian. However, the United States opposed the invasion IOTL, and encourged Vichy France in its efforts against Axis domination. Perhaps Roosevelt could help broker a deal between Britain and France. It was hardly in Britain's best interests to have Japan snapping up unguarded colonies in the Pacific, so maybe they would be willing to listen. Vichy France may have pleeded the ability to restock at British colonies in their campaign.

If this goes ahead, and the Vichy French fleet sails to Vietnam, what would happen? The Japanese navy has an advantage in practically every catagory; numbers, supplies, quality of vessels. But the real question is whether this would drag the United States into a war, and if Japan was willing to risk it. IOTL, Japan recognized the need to neutralize the US before making a move on Dutch and British colonies. What if the US drew the line in the sand just a little bit sooner and threatened Japan with war?

Lots of dead Frenchman

Snowman23 said:

Lots of dead Frenchmen.

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Of course. Japanese naval aviators-the best in the world at the time-will send lots of French ships to the bottom.

Beyond that, the US might, I suppose, ramp up sanctions a little earlier (not gonna fight over Indochina, nohow). This could move the Japanese oil/rubber deadline up, forcing them to move earlier. With their forces a bit less prepared, and losses from the South China Sea battle with the Vichy fleet, their advances in the East Indies and the Philippines might be slower.

No idea how it would affect the little undclared UK-Vichy war, though.

I think that Vichy and Britain would have to come to terms in order for this to be viable at all. I'd expect something like the US turning the heat up on Britain to let the Vichy fleet out. I guess that they could get really really gutsy and try to sail straight though Gibralter but that would be like playing chicken with battleships. Also, the Japanese invasion was more or less simultanious with the Battle of Dakar. That pretty much destroys the chances of an agreement with Britain, but only if if Dakar goes as per OTL.


POD: The Battle of Dakar is a success for the Free French and British. De Gaulle presses on with the landings at Rufisque, and the Vichy forces capitulate. The fall of French West Africa sends shockwaves through the Vichy government. Admiral Darlan seizes his oppertunity and takes the French Fleet out of Toulon and joins Britian, in exchange for becoming the new leader of the Free French forces. De Gaule is outraged by this, but can effectively do nothing. The desertion of the Marine Nationale causes the collapse of the Vichy govenment and Germany occupies the rest of France. The Free French forces and Britain combined issue an ultimatum to Japan to desert French Indochina. Now what?

Da Pwnzlordd said:

What if when Japan invaded French Indochina in September, Vichy France makes a serious effort to oppose this, and why did they not IOTL? They could sortie their navy in an attempt to send reinforcements.

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What navy?
What did they have left?

Da Pwnzlordd said:

Such a move would first have to deal with the fact that Vichy France would have to make a deal with the British just to get out of the Mediterranian.

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Vichy was a Nazi Puppet and Britain was at war with them in all but name.

Cook said:

What navy?
What did they have left?

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In a battle ready state, they would have the Strasbourg, a modern battlecruiser (or Battleship, depending on who you ask) along with numerous modern destroyers and cruisers. (The French La Galissonnière light cruisers and Fantasque heavy destroyers, the fastest in the world, where some of the most modern escorts on the seas at that point). This would be along with some old WWI and 1920's ships, including a one or two old battleships that while still ready would be useless in any long range mission. So while a formidable, modern surface force could be mustered, it would just be wiped out by Japanese air power.

Snowman23 said:

In a battle ready state, they would have the Strasbourg, a modern battlecruiser...it would just be wiped out by Japanese air power.

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They wouldn’t get the opportunity. If the Strasbourg had sortied it would have been immediately sunk by the British.

Cook said:

They wouldn’t get the opportunity. If the Strasbourg had sortied it would have been immediately sunk by the British.

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I'm just going by what the OP said, though that is completely true

Wouldn't that seriously weaken their position in Europe - although they might not realize that?
They will be risking their most important military assest and, even if they think they'll be successful, they'll have their fleet away from home for, I don't know, at least a year.
Isn't kind of a choice between the rump French State in Europe and North Africa vs. Indochina?

juanml82 said:

Wouldn't that seriously weaken their position in Europe - although they might not realize that?
They will be risking their most important military assest and, even if they think they'll be successful, they'll have their fleet away from home for, I don't know, at least a year.
Isn't kind of a choice between the rump French State in Europe and North Africa vs. Indochina?

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Their position in Europe was as a foot stool for Nazi Germany. The British were using their French, (the Free French) to take over Vichy colonies by proxy. In June 1941 they ceased using proxies and just invaded Lebanon-Syria.

What was left of the French Fleet hadn’t put to sea since July 1940 because they’d have been sunk by the British. So you’d have a crew that was totally out of practice putting to sea and having to somehow evade the British, sail past Gibraltar, around Africa, across the Indian Ocean, past Singapore and up to Indo-China to challenge the Japanese who by that time would be fully established.

This all overlooks the fact that Hitler approved Japan’s occupation of Indo-China because it further threatened the British in the Far East.

Cook is right Hitler would not approve.

1) RE the French fleet and British interception. In June 1941, Vichy could let it known through the still-neutral United States (which are more pro-Vichy than pro-Free France) that the ships sortie to rally Indochina.

As it would put the French ships out of reach of Germany, and indicate at the very least hostility between Vichy and Japan, I don't think the British would stop that.

2) If Vichy resists Japan, that means that politically Vichy breaks free from Germany (who at the time weighed on Vichy to ACCEPT Japanese demands). That makes Vichy a de facto ally - and even though that means the quasi-immediate loss of Metropolitan Vichy France as Germany retaliates by invading, that means the Vichy colonies almost certainly go Allied.

Allies gain access to North Africa/Indochina a full year before OTL. Again, I'm pretty certain the British would love that: they get all the Vichy overseas territories plus all the Vichy Fleet plus all the Vichy troops, and the Germans themselves will rid them of the Vichy government. Bliss or what! At this time Churchill can choose to ditch de Gaulle if he so chooses, as there will be more high-ranking politicians and officers available to rally Fighting France around. Not sure he would have done it, but the option would have been here.

Cook said:

What navy?
What did they have left?

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The French fleet was far from mortally wounded at Mers el Kébir. There would be one carrier, one seaplane tender, at least two modern battleships, a good many modern cruisers and destroyers, plus submarines and tenders.

If we put the naval matter to one side, does anyone have an opinion on the land or air forces that the VF regime had in Indochina? Were they of sufficient size that they could at least make life a little harder for Japan?

Because if so, imagine say the VF forces put up a bit of struggle, say nothing too serious, but something that delays the Japanese by a week or two longer than IOTL. How does Britain or the Netherlands in Exile react? Does the fact that they both now have a much better example of Japanese capabilities against Western forces and that the Japanese are now much closer to Malaya or DEI change their IOTL preparations for defence?

As much as the French might have wanted to resist, it just wasn't feasible.

The entire reason d'etre of Vichy France was to save as much of the country from direct German occupation and by collaboration lighten the demands of the Germans. In reality, there was a split down the middle between those simply awaiting the chance to fight the Germans again and those that were willing to reach an accomodation with the Germans because the Germans were the paramount force in Europe (at the time).

Either way, they are not going to antagonize the Germans. And even if they can get German approval and an understanding with the British, they can never get enough troops and especially supplies to fight off a serious Japanese thrust.

And just sending a weak naval force instead of a fleet and ground forces would simply lead to a second Tsushima or a Force Z disaster.

Hitler pressured the Vichy gov't to accept the Japs in Indochina, so he'd have opposed this, & if it was done without informing him or over his objections then he'd have certainly occupied Vichy France, in which case half of the colonies go Free French & the other half lose their ability to defend vs Allied aggression, so the Brits get earlier possession of Lebanon, Syria, & Iraq & an earlier toe-hold in NW Africa. The earlier toe-hold in NW Africa might have actually worked to the Brits' disadvantage, diverting troops from the 8th Army & allowing the Germans to defeat 'em in detail; but this would have required larger forces & probably would have delayed Barbarossa by a year or so.
When the Brit commander at Gibraltar allowed the Richelieu to pass unmolested on its way to Toulon he was relieved, so his successor definitely wouldn't have allowed the French fleet to leave the Med without a direct order from London. After Mers-el-Khebir, Casablanca, Oran, Dakar, & the internment of Vichy ships in Alexandria the Vichy gov't had sent 2 air raids against Gibraltar, so Vichy & the Brits were in a state of undeclared war at this time, Vichy was in no mood to be asking favors from the Brits, & the Brits were in no mood to grant any. Vichy did have a respectable fleet available-- the Richelieu, Dunkerque, Strasbourg, plus the heavy cruisers Algerie, Foch, Dupleix, & Colbert; but these ships would have taken serious damage trying to pass Gibraltar without an OK from the Brits. The Bretagne & Provence were older battleships, probably better left behind, & the Lorraine had been interned at Alexandria with 4 cruisers & other ships-- so if Brit permission was granted then those ships could have been released as well. The carrier Bearn was interned at Martinique under US supervision with the light cruisers Jean d'Arc & Emil Bertin, so if the US wanted to mediate Brit permission to go save Indochina then they could start by releasing those ships. Vichy had 1 light cruiser in Indochina, the Lamotte-Picquet, which actually fought & won a naval action vs the Thai navy (in which the Thais actually outgunned the French)-- BUT, even if every one of these ships was released & given permission to go save Indochina (a highly unlikely event), then what exactly do you imagine they could have accomplished? 1st of all it would have taken months for 'em just to get there, & 2d within hours of any hostile move Jap land-based aircraft would have done to them what they did to the Prince of Wales & the Repulse in Dec '41.
Once they arrived & the French commander realized all this, then he'd have had little choice but to accept a fleet-in-being role at Saigon. In Dec '41 the Lamotte-Picquet was disarmed & turned into a supply hulk on orders from the Japs. Logically, had the rest of the fleet been there too, then this order would have applied to all of the ships. Had the French fleet commander resisted that order then he might have sailed under fire from the Japs & joined whatever survived of his fleet with the ABDA command in the Dutch East Indies. That could have required the Japs to commit larger forces over a longer period of time, delaying the Battle of Midway-- & once you monkey with the Battle of Midway then you've thrown the door open to the Japs not losing 4 carriers in a couple of hours, which could have lengthened the Pacific war by 6 months to a year. In this event the release of the French fleet works to the long-term disadvantage of the Allies.
A long shot? Sure-- but no longer than the idea of the Brits letting 'em go in the 1st place.

Graehame said:

Richelieu, Dunkerque, Strasbourg, plus the heavy cruisers Algerie, Foch, Dupleix, & Colbert;

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Only problem is two of the most powerful ships where damaged; the Richelieu had only two operational guns following a shell explosion in one of its turrets, (Plus it had a top speed of only around 15 knots) while Dunkerque was still have torpedo damage from Mers-el-Khebir being repaired.

SNOWMAN23
"the Richelieu had only two operational guns following a shell explosion in one of its turrets, (Plus it had a top speed of only around 15 knots) while Dunkerque was still have torpedo damage from Mers-el-Khebir being repaired."
I was being generous to make a point.

Graehame said:

SNOWMAN23
"the Richelieu had only two operational guns following a shell explosion in one of its turrets, (Plus it had a top speed of only around 15 knots) while Dunkerque was still have torpedo damage from Mers-el-Khebir being repaired."
I was being generous to make a point.

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That is called being historically ignorant.

I can't remember the guy's name, but I think the Vichy governor-general of the time was a bit of a closet Nazi, and had to explain himself to de Gaulle at the war's end.