Protect and Survive: A Timeline

[Hörnla]

Originally Posted by BrianD

Specifically, having enough people to perform agricultural (and other) work, while targeting a certain percentage of people to starve.

Cruel and inhuman, without a doubt. At this point, post-exchange, survival is top priority...and I'd imagine numerous options that none of the leaders pre-war would even consider are being planned out.

Except for those 1933-45 guys in brown, resp. black.

Now that probably means anyone who has to be taken care of infinitely without showing a productive value has to go. That means most of the (still surviving) handicapped and old would be concerned.

Letting the very young die as alluded to earlier was IMHO a serious case of shotting oneself into the foot, if not the kneecap. Not counting the mid-term demographical damage due to imbalance, the blow to remaining civilian morale must have been tantamount in the regions where this measure had been taken. The damage done by those driven to civil unrest this way probably soon surpassed the savings by this new Herodian massacre. Besides, the age from which on a child can be expected to do hard work will probably come a lot sooner than before the exchange...

Still cynically speaking (in case no one noticed), the thought occured to me that too much planning concerning deliberate starvation will do more harm than good. I can imagine that bascially spreading anything thin encourages the principle of "survival of the fittest" and lets the truly hardest survive.

---

By the way, to have a comparison in a slightly comparable situation: During 1945 (post-liberation) it was estimated that the average German civilian in the US/UK-zones received 1200 calories a day. In 1946, 1500 calories were the average, but during the harsh winter of 1946/47, the tendency went downwards again, sometimes down to 1000 calories. So we have circa 2 complete years in such a disastrous situation before the situation started to normalize during 1947.

Now this meant that (esp. infant) mortality rates soared; but overall, German population (according to date from the Statistische Bundesamt) was at 70.8 million (in 1937 borders) in 1942, dropped to approx. 66 million in 1945 (still in 1937 borders), and further to 65.8 million in 1947 (now in 1990 borders) but had reached 68 million by 1949 again (though we have to take continued forced migration into account here).

Now we have a different set of underlying problems in post-exchange Britain. But I would still assume that as long as the food distribution does not collapse completely, the population losses from malnutrition and the ensuing sicknesses will be small when compared to those from the exchange and its more immediate after-effects.

[Hörnla]

He, I just started page 100! Hooray!

[Macragge1]

Originally Posted by Hörnla

Except for those 1933-45 guys in brown, resp. black.

Now that probably means anyone who has to be taken care of infinitely without showing a productive value has to go. That means most of the (still surviving) handicapped and old would be concerned.

Letting the very young die as alluded to earlier was IMHO a serious case of shotting oneself into the foot, if not the kneecap. Not counting the mid-term demographical damage due to imbalance, the blow to remaining civilian morale must have been tantamount in the regions where this measure had been taken. The damage done by those driven to civil unrest this way probably soon surpassed the savings by this new Herodian massacre. Besides, the age from which on a child can be expected to do hard work will probably come a lot sooner than before the exchange...

Still cynically speaking (in case no one noticed), the thought occured to me that too much planning concerning deliberate starvation will do more harm than good. I can imagine that bascially spreading anything thin encourages the principle of "survival of the fittest" and lets the truly hardest survive.

---

By the way, to have a comparison in a slightly comparable situation: During 1945 (post-liberation) it was estimated that the average German civilian in the US/UK-zones received 1200 calories a day. In 1946, 1500 calories were the average, but during the harsh winter of 1946/47, the tendency went downwards again, sometimes down to 1000 calories. So we have circa 2 complete years in such a disastrous situation before the situation started to normalize during 1947.

Now this meant that (esp. infant) mortality rates soared; but overall, German population (according to date from the Statistische Bundesamt) was at 70.8 million (in 1937 borders) in 1942, dropped to approx. 66 million in 1945 (still in 1937 borders), and further to 65.8 million in 1947 (now in 1990 borders) but had reached 68 million by 1949 again (though we have to take continued forced migration into account here).

Now we have a different set of underlying problems in post-exchange Britain. But I would still assume that as long as the food distribution does not collapse completely, the population losses from malnutrition and the ensuing sicknesses will be small when compared to those from the exchange and its more immediate after-effects.

Very valid analysis; the comparisons to Germany in the immediate aftermath of the Second World War are especially useful; certainly, the situation there in 45-48ish is the closest analogue we've got to a post-apocalyptic scenario (at least one affecting a first-world, European country) and I've certainly used stuff I've read about the period to influence the timeline, so thanks.

Originally Posted by Hörnla

He, I just started page 100! Hooray!

Yeah, it's nuts that the thread's come this far. Thanks guys!

[JN1]

Originally Posted by Macragge1

I've never seen either of the sequels; everything I've heard about them has just put me off, which is saying something considering how much I liked the first one. Malcolm MacDowell seems like one of these actors who follows the Michael Caine school of saying yes to literally anything; for every Clockwork Orange there's some made-for-TV movie or voice work in Fallout 3 or something.

Just look at his filmography on IMDB and you'll see just how true that is.
He's even done soft-core (so I'm told).

Originally Posted by Macragge1

Yeah, it's nuts that the thread's come this far. Thanks guys!

Nuts? No. just an indication of how popular this TL is.
However the Red Dawn RP really set the benchmark for length before it decamped to HPCA.

[Macragge1]

Originally Posted by JN1

Just look at his filmography on IMDB and you'll see just how true that is.
He's even done soft-core (so I'm told).

Looking at it, the first thing that strikes me is how busy he is, even now; that must get some points just for quantity's sake.

I think the soft-core thing was probably Caligula, which I guess he sort of gets a pass for because it was a big-budget thing that was presented, rightly or wrongly, as 'art'. It pushed the boundaries pretty far though, but if you look at it in the context of the time, it was bound to happen at some point; it sort of marks the Rubicon that no big budget film, even today, has dared try and cross.

Originally Posted by JN1

? No. just an indication of how popular this TL is.
However the Red Dawn RP really set the benchmark for length before it decamped to HPCA.

I liked the Red Dawn thread a lot; why did it end up emigrating over to HPCA?

[Epic History]

I have one question: Is the United States still around?

[Dan]

Originally Posted by Epic History

I have one question: Is the United States still around?

Yes and no.
The continent of North America is there, there are States, whether they're united or not is something that hasn't been covered yet though.

[Hörnla]

Originally Posted by Macragge1

Very valid analysis; the comparisons to Germany in the immediate aftermath of the Second World War are especially useful; certainly, the situation there in 45-48ish is the closest analogue we've got to a post-apocalyptic scenario (at least one affecting a first-world, European country) and I've certainly used stuff I've read about the period to influence the timeline, so thanks.

I haven't done so yet, but for an even more severe, but shorter, hunger crisis you may have a look at the Netherlands in 1944/45.

[RCAF Brat]

Originally Posted by Epic History

I have one question: Is the United States still around?

Yes and no. The Us government is shattered, and following the death of president Reagan, it is unclear as to who exactly his successor is. There is a distinct lack of communications between various parts of that nation, and of those in the line of succession, it isn't yet clear who the highest ranking survivor is. (Not for a lack of trying to find out, even to the point of conscripting a visiting group of British servicemen in an attempt at determining Reagan's fate. That trip ended with Reagan being killed by an insane SAS officer.)

Now, as for NATO nations that we don't know the fates of, what happened to Canada? For a nuclear war scenario, I once made a guess that there were 100-200 targets there that were worth attacking with nuclear weapons. That was probably very conservative. The nation may or may not survive as a coherent entity (my guess is no, as it is a nation the size of Europe from the Urals west inhabited in 1985 by about 25 million people, with most being concentrated in a few tight corridors that are littered with targets worthy of nuclear attack), but the provinces are more likely to (though they will be largely rural in character with the big cities gone) in some form.

[ivfl]

I wonder what the UN was doing during the build up to war and in the last days before the exchange.Logic would dictate that officials where desperately trying to bring the conflict to an end but how?What was the UN secretary general doing for example a day before the war went nuclear.Resigned to his fate,fleeing New York?This brings an interesting question what evacuation plans existed for the UN during the Cold War?Had a conflict erupted what would UN staff do?Flee the city remain or no plans where ever drawn up for something like this?

[JN1]

Originally Posted by Macragge1

Looking at it, the first thing that strikes me is how busy he is, even now; that must get some points just for quantity's sake.

I think the soft-core thing was probably Caligula, which I guess he sort of gets a pass for because it was a big-budget thing that was presented, rightly or wrongly, as 'art'. It pushed the boundaries pretty far though, but if you look at it in the context of the time, it was bound to happen at some point; it sort of marks the Rubicon that no big budget film, even today, has dared try and cross.

I'm pretty sure I once saw him in one of those films that Channel 5 used to show on a Friday. Yes, I admit it that as a teenager I watched them, for which I make no apologies.

Originally Posted by Macragge1

I liked the Red Dawn thread a lot; why did it end up emigrating over to HPCA?

AFAIK it was to give the participants more room to explore the universe than could be done via one thread. It has it's own sub-forum now.

[Epic History]

Thanks for answering my question.I hope the Stars and Stripes are still around.

[ivfl]

Doubtfull that the Stars and Stripes would still be in publication.Even if its still around it would be in an extremely small circulation,few would read it.In fact most newspapers,magazines the press in general would have been wiped out.Surviving journalists are most likely struggling to survive,the only countries which would still have a press below the level of the state gazette are the ones not targeted in the war.Although chaos caused by the war would probably lead to cancelation in most nations of major newspapers.Even the state gazette if still in publication assuming there is someone left to print would be in a limited number and most would never find out about it.Does lead to questions along the lines of what newspaper headlines where on the verge of things going nuclear.What did the final edition of the New York Times,Washington Post or The Daily Telegraph,Le Figaro,Corriere della Sera have in it.They may not be worth much in an immediate post-war world but 60-70 years from the war they would probably be worth a fortune for collectors.The last issue of the Economist would probably attracts attention in 2050 assuming humanity at least in some places is back to some semblance of pre-war normality.

[Hörnla]

People have printed in terrible conditions anywhere and anytime.

Given the state of affairs in the timeline, I do not see why e.g. The Portsmouth Evening News shouldn't be around any more. Though heavily censored, they should be able to get out an edition, maybe reduced to issues twice a week or so. Remember, semblance of normality is important to any government, so is communication. This is the more the case as TV and radio are also not easy to re-install.

Besides, we have heard a lot about underground-movements in Britain. You can bet they publish, albeit in a more primitive way. Remember, this is the 1980s and manual printing machines will still be around in some places and also people who remember how to use them.

And concerning neutral, but hardly or not at all nuked countries...there will be chaos and disruptions, but also media to cover it - at least newspapers.

[ivfl]

While some local newspapers would still be around the major newspapers would be largely gone.The LA Times or the New York Times would be gone,the only major newspapers still in circulation would be in Africa or South America although with widespread famine and chaos many countries would collapse into civil war over the long term.

[Jukra]

Originally Posted by ivfl

While some local newspapers would still be around the major newspapers would be largely gone.The LA Times or the New York Times would be gone,the only major newspapers still in circulation would be in Africa or South America although with widespread famine and chaos many countries would collapse into civil war over the long term.

Why wouldn't Swedish and Finnish newspapers be in publication? Newspapers are moral boosters and I can see no reason why they wouldn't be published. In addition to being means of spreading propaganda they would have huge importance in more organized societies as trading venues. WW II Finnish newspapers were full of adverts of people wanting to trade tools for bicycle tyres, male clothes for female clothes etc. (or most famously, a problematic mother-in-law for anything worth of 5 marks). Also, the missing people's lists etc would be publishced as well.

[ivfl]

Swedish outside of the capital maybe but finnish probably not.At this point we don't know what happened to Finland,but even the swedes seem to know very little about it,obviously it got nuked as well ,probably worse than most neutrals except for Austria and Yugoslavia.Add to that the proximity to major targets in the USSR and the finns would be in pretty bad shape.As for a missing persons list it would be exceedingly long,add to that the fact that many records would have been lost or rendered unusable.The death toll would never be accurately know for such an event.Still some newspapers at least local ones far away from target areas would still be in publication,problem is they would lack information,without the resources of major newspapers they'd have to rely on government statements.These in turn would be spotty assuming there is still a government left which has any idea of what and where.

[Weaver]

I think the original poster re Stars and Stripes was talking about the flag. Not the US forces mag.

[Hörnla]

Originally Posted by ivfl

Still some newspapers at least local ones far away from target areas would still be in publication,problem is they would lack information,without the resources of major newspapers they'd have to rely on government statements.These in turn would be spotty assuming there is still a government left which has any idea of what and where.

Lack of information has never been a problem. First of all, scarcity of ressources will reduce the number of issues and the newspapers' size. Then there will be enough local news, because that will also matter to the people as soon as their range has been quite reduced. Also, there will be demand for loads of knowledge how to deal with the new situation. Turnip recipes . How to deal with shortages of this and that.

Government statements, well, these and censorship will be the true dangers to journalism anywhere.

Then....rumours will be reported. Not always marked as such.

It will be rough times for newspapers, but the situation for this media would be better than in OTL. Same might go for radio, but I see quite a problem for the development of television-programming or the world of cinema.

[ivfl]

Of course discussion about newspapers is only valid in places which still have something resembling authority,large areas between Normandy and Moscow are esentially wiped out.In these regions newspapers even at a local level are probably gone.The worst probably in former Germany with Denmark and Poland a close second.In such places only rumours provide information to the locals the ones still living.