AHC: Austria-dominated Germany

Well, the title pretty much says it all. We all know how Germany dominated by Prussian militarism turned out and brought us such wonderful stereotypes such as heel-klicking and giant mustaches. How would a Germany united and dominated by Austria (possibly with the inclusion of B-M and Hungary, though not necessarily) turn out?

The closest thing to such a timeline I can think of is Jimbrock's "Zwei Adler, Ein Kaiser", where Prussia and A-H are brought together in a political marriage, and might end up with the rest of the German lands.

- Kelenas

Quick sketch: French and Italians get lucky in 1859 and divest Austria of both Lombardy and Venetia. Austria gives up on Italy for good, and does some serious spring-cleaning of its army while neo-absolutism is (as IOTL) repalced by a new constitution that makes Austria popular with the German liberals just when Bismarck has succeeded in becoming Germany's least popular man. Austria's historical plans to tighten the Bund under its leadership, blocked by Prussian veto, end up backed by threat of force (and remember that 1866 was a closer thing than it looked, and that was with half the Austrian army in Italy). Gradually, with time, nationalism and the politics of democracy lead this German association to tighten until it gradually transforms into a federal state (though one on a rather looser and more equitable basis than our German Empire).

Germany remains the land of students in frilly shirts who sing dog-latin drinking songs in cellars, all set in a landscape of red-roofed 16th-century towns and Hohenstaufen castles on dramatic sub-Alpine crags, crossed by tinkers, painters, and the inescapable philosophers. Mustaches optional.

Austria could have a head start if it exerted its influence over the southern German states after 1815. A constitution and arrangement, as mentioned by IBC, could take place as early as the 1820s-30s if it's pulled off. A faster, more contained 1848 in Hungary could help Vienna preserve some military and diplomatic leverage with the other states. If confrontation with Prussia remains unavoidable, decisive victory either on the battlefield or the conference table can sway the German lands to the Habsburgs' favor.

The resulting Germany would be more like the A-H empire, only with more Deutsch. Some compromises might be made with both the Magyars and Germans, but that's how it would likely unfold.

Or, alternatively, we might have Austria accept dominance of the German Empire in 1848, though this would be more of a Habsburg-dominated than an Austrian one. Vienna might even be able to become the capital, and in the long term the very liberal constitution might be slowly adapted to be more centralised and Austrian dominated. But such a situation would probably require a conflict to bring Prussia in line, I would think.

I'd say that given OTL, unification of Italy and Germany, respectively, were inevitable. Prussia loosing the 7-years war could end with partition of Prussia, avoiding German dualism so that Austria gets a natural leading role in Germany and hence German unification. Without Prussia, we'd likely see reforms of the HRE even before Napoleon (if he isn'T butterflied away completely) as well as a reestablishment of an Empire after 1815. Austria can follow a gradual unification approach from there on.

Another interesting point is that this might butterfly away the Polish partitions, so Austria avoids Polish and Ruthene minorities, increasing the fraction of Germans in the Hapsburg lands. On the other side, to counter Austrian power in central Europe, I could see the British and French trying to keep Austria out of Italy, which would increase the fraction of Germans in the Hapsburg territories as well. On the other side, Austria without Prussia has more of a free hand in the Balkans, so we might see Austrian Serbia and Bosnia.

How much opposition would the British pose in this scenario, though? One of their longest-standing policies was to keep the continent as disunited as possible so that it couldn't be dominated by a single power and pose a threat to their island. I'd think that a nation that controls all the German lands - possibly even including Prussia, if the Austrians absorb it after another war, perhaps - plus sizable Balkan holdings would pretty much be a nightmare far beyond Napoleonic France for them.

Forging alliances with the French, Russians and Ottomans, perhaps? How much would the Habsburgs be able to counter that, diplomatically?

- Kelenas

Kelenas said:

How much opposition would the British pose in this scenario, though? One of their longest-standing policies was to keep the continent as disunited as possible so that it couldn't be dominated by a single power and pose a threat to their island. I'd think that a nation that controls all the German lands - possibly even including Prussia, if the Austrians absorb it after another war, perhaps - plus sizable Balkan holdings would pretty much be a nightmare far beyond Napoleonic France for them.

Forging alliances with the French, Russians and Ottomans, perhaps? How much would the Habsburgs be able to counter that, diplomatically?

Click to expand...

First, this Austria would not necessarily be that larger than France, which had the highest population in Europe far into the 19th century. And large parts of Austria would be rather backwards - including probably the whole of Hungary and obviously all Balkan holdings, which I wouldn'T think of much larger than OTL plus Serbia and Bosnia. After that, there'll be Russo-Austrian tensions regarding further conquests which likely prohibit further expansion. So this is not the behemoth like Napoleonic France - but you're right that the British wouldn't be that friendly nevertheless. And the longer the Austrians need to establish this Empire, the higher its overall power will be so the more hostile the British become to German unification.

Second, in the scenario I proposed, the British already failed in establishing a balance of power as we knew it, since without Prussia, Germany IS dominated by Austria unless France gets in - which the British would want to prevent as well. Effectively, the situation is set on the continent and I doubt that the British could do much about that without destroying Austria. In this scenario, there are only three great powers left on the continent. Of those three, Austria and Russia might cooperate to partition the Ottomans - British nightmare, but hardly stoppable. Sooner or later, though, Austria and Russia will become enemies. Probably quite soon, not at least thanks to Britain. Question now is whether Britain would cooperate with France and Russia against the only remaining great power, which could end in only three great powers remaining at all.

I'd say that Britain would try to prop up second-rate powers. Italy could be one. The Netherlands and Sweden. Poland may still exist.

Nevertheless, you've got a valuable point. There probably will be situations where the Hapsburgs need British help. A compromise could be to establish a secundogenitur in Hungary?

Monty Burns said:

I'd say that given OTL, unification of Italy and Germany, respectively, were inevitable. Prussia loosing the 7-years war could end with partition of Prussia, avoiding German dualism so that Austria gets a natural leading role in Germany and hence German unification. Without Prussia, we'd likely see reforms of the HRE even before Napoleon (if he isn'T butterflied away completely) as well as a reestablishment of an Empire after 1815. Austria can follow a gradual unification approach from there on.

Another interesting point is that this might butterfly away the Polish partitions, so Austria avoids Polish and Ruthene minorities, increasing the fraction of Germans in the Hapsburg lands. On the other side, to counter Austrian power in central Europe, I could see the British and French trying to keep Austria out of Italy, which would increase the fraction of Germans in the Hapsburg territories as well. On the other side, Austria without Prussia has more of a free hand in the Balkans, so we might see Austrian Serbia and Bosnia.

Click to expand...

Interesting, but with Austria out of Italy, they just like Prussia IOTL, will want compensations, preferably in Germany...

Well, there is one of my preferred 1848 PoD (credit to Imperial Vienna for the original idea). Let's assume that the Habsburg ruling circle has an epiphany in 1848 and realizes that the unity of the dynastic state has to be compromised if hegemony in Germany & Italy and control of Hungary are to be preserved. So they decide to divide the Habsburg Empire in four kingdoms.

The Regency Council for Ferdinand I, led by Archduchess Sophie, makes some back room deals with the Frankfurt Parliament which lead to the offer of the German Crown to her eldest son (easily achieved since the early days of the Parliament were dominated by the Habsburg sympathizers). A similar deal is done with Italian nationalists, Habsburg support to Italian unification under a federal constitution similar to the Paulkirsche one in exchange for the Italian crown being given to an Habsburg prince. German and Hungarian nationalists enthusiastically go along with the plan and even Italian liberals are so eager for national unity that are willing to accept an Habsburg on the throne of Italy. A combination of Habsburg prestige (and military power) and grassroots liberal-nationalist revolutionary pressure ensures that all the other German and Italian states accept the plan.

The ancient hereditary Habsburg lands are thus split in 4, Austria (with Bohemia-Moravia and Slovenia) leads the way toward German unification, Hungary (with Croatia) gains the independence that her nobles have long coveted, Venetia-Lombardy (with Trentino and Istria) becomes an effective alternative to a Savoy-unified Italy, and Galicia becomes the rallying point for Polish nationalists.

And what luck, Franz Karl and Sophie had 4 sons, so each can be placed on a throne maintaining the Habsburg hegemony. Franz Joseph becomes Emperor Franz III of Germany (Habsburg stick with continuation of HRE imperial numbering), Ferdinand Maximilian becomes Emperor Ferdinando III of Italy (he revives the Roman imperial title, using the ERE/Byzantine dignities that Ferdinand of Aragon and Isabella of Castile had purchased as a source of legitimacy, and the regal styling Ferdinando III, after Ferdinand of Aragon being I, and Ferdinand I of Austria being II, so that he can affirm precedence over the kings of Sardinia and Naples within the federation), Karl Ludwig takes the Hungarian throne with a Regency Council (which pleases the Hungarian nobles since they could control the Regency Council), and Ludwig Viktor becomes King of Galicia in Krakow again with a Regency Council.

The four Habsburg states immediately form a military alliance and a customs league and monetary union.

Eurofed said:

Well, there is one of my preferred 1848 PoD (credit to Imperial Vienna for the original idea). Let's assume that the Habsburg ruling circle has an epiphany in 1848 and realizes that the unity of the dynastic state has to be compromised if hegemony in Germany & Italy and control of Hungary have to be preserved. So they decide to divide the Habsburg Empire in four kingdoms.

Thre Regency Council for Ferdinand I, spearheaded by Archduchess Sophie, makes some back room deals with the Frankfurt Parliament which leads to the offer of the German Crown to her eldest son (easily achieved since the early days of the Parliament were dominated by the Habsburg sympathizers). A similar offer is done to Italian nationalists, Habsburg support to Italian unification under a federal constitution similar to the Paulkirsche one in exchange for the Italian crown being given to an Habsburg prince. German and Hungarian nationalists enthusiastically go along with the plan and even Italian liberals are so eager for national unity that are willing to give the Iron Crown to an Habsburg. A combination of Habsburg prestige and grassroots liberal-nationalist revolutionary pressure ensures that the other German and Italian states accept the plan.

The ancient hereditary Habsburg lands are thus split in 4, Austria (with Bohemia-Moravia and Slovenia) leads the way toward German unification, Hungary (with Croatia) gains the independence that her nobles have long coveted, Venetia-Lombardy (with Trentino and Istria) becomes an effective alternative to a Savoy unified Italy, and Galicia becomes the rallying point for Polish Nationalists.

And what luck, Franz Karl and Sophie had 4 sons, so each can be placed on a throne maintaining the Habsburg hegemony. Franz Joseph becomes Emperor Franz III of Germany (Habsburg stick with continuation of HRE imperial numbering), Ferdinand Maximilian I becomes Emperor of Italy (he revives the Roman imperial title so that he can affirm precedence over the kings of Sardinia and Naples within the federation), Karl Ludwig takes the Hungarian throne with a Regency Council (which pleases the Hungarian nobles since they could control the Regency Council), and Ludwig Viktor becomes King of Galicia in Krakow.

The four Habsburg states immediately form a military alliance and a customs league and monetary union.

Click to expand...

hmm I think I like this interesting idea, but I have one thing to nitpick. An independent Galicia-Lodomeria, might be a problem for Prussia, with a lot of Poles in Posen; and of course Russia, which controls the kingdom of (Congress) Poland.

Janprimus said:

hmm I think I like this interesting idea, but I have one thing to nitpick. An independent Galicia-Lodomeria, might be a problem for Prussia, with a lot of Poles in Posen; and of course Russia, which controls the kingdom of (Congress) Poland.

Click to expand...

Well, the alternative would be for Hungary to annex Galicia, and I dunno if the Hungarians are willing to take a lot of Poles and Ukrainians onboard. Don't forget that Galicia and Germany are close allies, so their governments would cooperate to suppress Polish irredentism in Posen.

OTOH, yes, this would make Russia quite nervous. It is unlikely that this would immediately lead to an Habsburg-Russian war, since the Habsburg Quadruple Alliance looks quite strong, even for Russia. We may however expect that there would be a considerable cooling of relationships, also because the Habsburg monarchs would rely on German, Italian, and Hungarian moderate liberal-nationalists as a power base, and as a rule those were fairly sympathetic to Polish nationalism.

In all likelihood, they appease the Poles by making backroom promises of support for the independence of (Congress) Poland from Russia under the leadership of Galicia (which would further expand the power of the Habsburg Alliance). An opportunity is going to arise in the near future, when rising Anglo-Russian antagonism is going to explode in the *Crimean War. It is quite like that in such a conflict, the Quadruple Alliance would take the side of Britain, and seize the opportunity to grab Poland. Once Congress Poland is liberated and merged with Galicia, in all likelihood the issue of Posen would be settled by partitioning the province as the Frankfurt Parliament proposed to do in 1848. Since ITTL the the Frankfurt Parliament was successful, it is actually quite likely that such a partition already took place within Prussia and Germany. If and when Congress Poland is liberated, the "Polish" portion of Posen would ceded away. Germany and Prussia would not mind, since they would keep the most valuable portion of the province.

What is interesting in such a *Crimean War is France's standing. Political sympathies for liberalism would make it averse to supporting Russia, the arch-champion of the reactionary order. Geopolitical interest would push it to seek the alliance of Russia against the Habsburg block on its border. It could go both ways.

Hm... the "Quadruple Alliance" idea sounds quite a bit like a (very) early proto-EU, with its monetary and customs union, plus mutual alliance etc. I like it.

- Kelenas

Kelenas said:

Hm... the "Quadruple Alliance" idea sounds quite a bit like a (very) early proto-EU, with its monetary and customs union, plus mutual alliance etc. I like it.

Click to expand...

Yes, the German, Italian, Hungarian, Polish etc. 1848 liberal-national movements had an internationalist streak and this ideal of the brotherhood of European peoples that would emerge once the reactionary order was overthrown. It may be seen as a very early ideological precedent to European Integration. Since ITTL the 1848 revolutions would triumph peacefully, it is very apt that the union of the new post-revolutionary states becomes a proto-EU. The PoD makes it so that the dynastic power interests of the Habsburg and the political aims of the liberal-national revolutions align instead of clashing. Of course, there would be precedents for this compact in the dynastic alliances of the 18th century, the German Zollverein of the early 19th century, and the Latin Monetary Union which IOTL happened soon afterwards.

Of course, this is going to make Russia and the Ottomans very nervous.

Eurofed said:

...
Of course, this is going to make Russia and the Ottomans very nervous.

Click to expand...

I think, the Brits (and French?) wouldn't be very happy as well.

well someone needs to make this timeline!

Van555 said:

well someone needs to make this timeline!

Click to expand...

Seconded.....

Van555 said:

well someone needs to make this timeline!

Click to expand...

Some day I hope to. My PoD would likely be Franz Karl being a more suitable match for Sophie (that is in Machiavellian Terms). IOTL he was apathetic, unimpressive, and Sophie dominated Franz Joseph, and her younger sons. Make Franz Karl even just sympathetic to German Nationalists (he doesn't need to openly or outright be a Nationalist, just enough that it influences Franz Joseph and is something Sophie's drive for power can be couple with) and you can easily radically change 1848 to the House of Habsburg's finest moment.

@ Eurofed: Your having Ferdinand Maximilian establish the title Emperor of Italy based on Roman legacy idea is an interesting one. While I prefer the restoration of the Iron Crown of Lombardy personally, the Habsburgs could easily use the purchase of the Roman/Byzantine dignities by Ferdinand of Aragon and Isabella of Castile as a source of legitimacy. We can also assume that if Franz Joseph becomes Franz III based on Imperial Legacy, Ferdinand Maximilian would likely follow suit. Based on that he could claim the regal styling Ferdinandus/Ferdinando III (Ferdinand of Aragon being I, and Ferdinand I of Austria being II). Likewise with Galicia/Poland, the Habsburgs and "modern" Polish Nationalists could easily manipulate the brief reigns of Maximilians I & II (aka Maximilian II, HRE and Maximilian III of Further Austria) toward claiming rights as Kings of Poland.

Well(i always like the plan of ImperialVienna) but again why that thing with the Byzantine/Roman thing with the Spanish Arragonese(i need a explaination) and if i don't want to be the one who spoil the fun but...

HOW WE GONNA CONVICED THE PRUSSIANS(More Important... the Hohenzollern and Bismarck) to accept that??. Frederick Wilhelm IV hate with all his soul the Frankfurt Liberal(to the point of give them false promise to confused them and later restaurated the Orden), The Hohenzollern still have the Big Prestige with their Role in the Napoleonic Wars... who have to Bride them very high(like the Title of Co-Emperor, or promise them very big territorial gains.. like the old South Prussia or New East Prussia is we have a war against the Russians... or all The Baltic Coast, to make them, the new feud of the Hohenzollern) or exlude then of the German Empire(impossible.. they still control the Rheinland and his a blow the legitmy)... we have a big point here...

Why The Ottomans will hate the Habsburg Quadruple Alliance?(oh yes.. the Italians and their Neo-Roman Irredentia), ANY ENEMY OF RUSSIA IS A FRIEND OF THE OTTOMANS... EVER... if you can put the Prussian in the Deutches Reich(who is a continuation of Both Prussia and Austria) and the Russian try to attack them... you now have an unvaluble ally... that will means the Quintuple Alliance VS the Entente(the three OTL member plus anyone who Britain can bride.. like portugal,USA,etc)

Yes the French will have a Hearth Attack(Eltass-Lothrigen) and the British too(Being outshined by the habsburg)... this his similar to Decades of Darkness... beside the Three Kaiser Scenario..

I want to see the timeline too(I can try to do it)

ATT
Nivek Von Beldo

anja said:

I think, the Brits (and French?) wouldn't be very happy as well.

Click to expand...

The French, no doubt. The Brits wouldn't really care. In this period, they are very focused on imperial concerns and their rivalry with Russia. The Habsburg block would be the new European top dog, no doubt, but a balance of power still exists with Russia and France. The main concern, from Britain's PoV, is whether the new alliance would help or contain Russian expansion.

ImperialVienna said:

@ Eurofed: Your having Ferdinand Maximilian establish the title Emperor of Italy based on Roman legacy idea is an interesting one.

Click to expand...

My idea is that FM would claim an imperial title in order to maintain parity with his elder brother, and even more importantly, primacy over the kings of Sardinia and Naples within the Italian federation.

While I prefer the restoration of the Iron Crown of Lombardy personally, the Habsburgs could easily use the purchase of the Roman/Byzantine dignities by Ferdinand of Aragon and Isabella of Castile as a source of legitimacy. We can also assume that if Franz Joseph becomes Franz III based on Imperial Legacy, Ferdinand Maximilian would likely follow suit. Based on that he could claim the regal styling Ferdinandus/Ferdinando III (Ferdinand of Aragon being I, and Ferdinand I of Austria being II).

Click to expand...

Well, your idea on reviving the Byzantine imperial title is very interesting. Me, too, had thought that just like Franz Joseph is reviving the WRE/HRE title to found the Empire of Germany, so Ferdinand Maximilian could so with the ERE/Byzantine one to found the Empire of Italy. I was under aware of the pruchase of the latter title by the Isabella and Ferdinand, but it is an angle that the Habsburg may easily use here. I agree with the Ferdinando III styling (very Italian-sounding ). They are surely going to use the Iron Crown again, but very few Italians are going to protest if they are an Empire again

Likewise with Galicia/Poland, the Habsburgs and "modern" Polish Nationalists could easily manipulate the brief reigns of Maximilians I & II (aka Maximilian II, HRE and Maximilian III of Further Austria) toward claiming rights as Kings of Poland.

Click to expand...

Quite true and feasible. Galician Poles would be very pleased with the revival of the title. It has the only drawback that the Tsar claims the title, too. Reviving independent Galicia is worrisome enough for Russia, claiming the Kingdom of Poland for it may be easily seen by Russia as an intolerable provocation. Of course, it might be done just to provoke Russia into attacking. A liberal-nationalist crusade to liberate Poland from the Tsarist joke is a very 1848 idea.

Nivek said:

HOW WE GONNA CONVICED THE PRUSSIANS(More Important... the Hohenzollern and Bismarck) to accept that??. Frederick Wilhelm IV hate with all his soul the Frankfurt Liberal(to the point of give them false promise to confused them and later restaurated the Orden), The Hohenzollern still have the Big Prestige with their Role in the Napoleonic Wars... who have to Bride them very high(like the Title of Co-Emperor, or promise them very big territorial gains.. like the old South Prussia or New East Prussia is we have a war against the Russians... or all The Baltic Coast, to make them, the new feud of the Hohenzollern) or exlude then of the German Empire(impossible.. they still control the Rheinland and his a blow the legitmy)... we have a big point here...

Click to expand...

Bismarck was not yet in charge in 1848, and Frederick William IV had a strong romantic legitimist streak. If the Habsburg throw their prestige behind the efforts of the Frankfurt Assembly, it is quite possible that he would feel compelled to go along. Having said that, yes, it is quite possible that in order to sweeten the deal, Vienna promises the Hohenzollern future territorial gains from a war with Russia (resurrecting the Kingdom of Poland in Galicia would wave a red towel in front of the Russian bull). Giving them South Prussia is theoretically possible but politically problematic since it would mess with the mostly national basis that underlies the Habsburg partition. Congress Poland is earmarked for future union with Galicia. Liberating the Baltic lands to make them an Hohenzollern state, like it was attempted in WWI, seems rather more feasible.

Why The Ottomans will hate the Habsburg Quadruple Alliance?(oh yes.. the Italians and their Neo-Roman Irredentia), ANY ENEMY OF RUSSIA IS A FRIEND OF THE OTTOMANS... EVER... if you can put the Prussian in the Deutches Reich(who is a continuation of Both Prussia and Austria) and the Russian try to attack them... you now have an unvaluble ally... that will means the Quintuple Alliance VS the Entente(the three OTL member plus anyone who Britain can bride.. like portugal,USA,etc).

Click to expand...

Well, I said the Ottomans might become nervous since with Russia, they are the other multinational empire, and they are witnessing the triumph of the principle of nationality on their borders. Having said that, yes, Russia is much more likely to become hostile and this could easily make Turkey and Britain join the side of the Quadruple Alliance in this expanded *Crimean War (with France going the side of Russia). Portugal is not necessary, and the USA are not going to mess in European feuds. It is actually more likely that Britain tries to get Sweden on its side.

Yes the French will have a Hearth Attack(Eltass-Lothrigen)

Click to expand...

And predictably go kamikaze.

and the British too(Being outshined by the habsburg)...

Click to expand...

They have their world-wide empire.