Effects of no shuttle program, continued *Skylab flights on SF?

Pretty much as per the title. Assuming that the shuttle program is canned but Skylab-type flights continue throughout the 1970s, what probable effects does this have on SF and other space-related writing and media?

While the public level of interest in the space program is likely to be similar to the accident-less periods during the shuttle flights (ie., low except when unmanned probes do something interesting), there will probably be more general knowledge of spaceflight, so I could see, eg., Star Trek Phase II being aired, or Star Wars and CETK being even bigger successes than IOTL. Phase II being aired would likely have a large effect on the subsequent evolution of Star Trek, particularly the movies, as the pilot was the basis for the first movie. You might not see any Trek movies at all, or at least until much later, in fact. Anything that explicitly requires or invokes the space shuttle is right out, of course, but that is mainly a factor for written stories until well into the 1980s.

On the broader question, I think space advocacy in the 1970s is likely to be very heavily affected. IOTL, a lot of the most prominent people in that area, like O'Neill or Heppenheimer, were strongly for the shuttle due to the initial low cost estimates, and really depended upon those estimates being hit for their ideas of space colonization. ITTL, those ideas will require new technology, so I think something a bit similar to the '90s/'00s low-cost space access movement would probably arise in the '70s, but seeking governmental R&D rather than the predominantly private approach of more recent decades. The cancellation of the Shuttle may be seen as catastrophic in many circles, or at least as a rather bad thing (how little do they know...), though the ridiculous nature of the cost estimates may go a long way towards cooling such feelings.
 
Pretty much as per the title. Assuming that the shuttle program is canned but Skylab-type flights continue throughout the 1970s, what probable effects does this have on SF and other space-related writing and media?

While the public level of interest in the space program is likely to be similar to the accident-less periods during the shuttle flights (ie., low except when unmanned probes do something interesting), there will probably be more general knowledge of spaceflight, so I could see, eg., Star Trek Phase II being aired, or Star Wars and CETK being even bigger successes than IOTL. Phase II being aired would likely have a large effect on the subsequent evolution of Star Trek, particularly the movies, as the pilot was the basis for the first movie. You might not see any Trek movies at all, or at least until much later, in fact. Anything that explicitly requires or invokes the space shuttle is right out, of course, but that is mainly a factor for written stories until well into the 1980s.

On the broader question, I think space advocacy in the 1970s is likely to be very heavily affected. IOTL, a lot of the most prominent people in that area, like O'Neill or Heppenheimer, were strongly for the shuttle due to the initial low cost estimates, and really depended upon those estimates being hit for their ideas of space colonization. ITTL, those ideas will require new technology, so I think something a bit similar to the '90s/'00s low-cost space access movement would probably arise in the '70s, but seeking governmental R&D rather than the predominantly private approach of more recent decades. The cancellation of the Shuttle may be seen as catastrophic in many circles, or at least as a rather bad thing (how little do they know...), though the ridiculous nature of the cost estimates may go a long way towards cooling such feelings.

There would be considerably be more awareness of Science Fiction in popular culture. More specifically, there might actually be more Gundam-analogue settings in Western works, owing to the increased possibilities of space colonization presented.

If I may go off-topic a bit, I think that Gundam Wing brought this to its logical conclusion, with its calendar starting off with a presumably more successful Skylab program.
 

Thande

Donor
When you say 'Skylab-type flights continue throughout the 1970s', how? Are you assuming Skylab 2 is flown on the last Saturn V? And then what, after that re-enters?

I suppose Big Gemini or something could be used to reboost a Skylab...
 
When you say 'Skylab-type flights continue throughout the 1970s', how? Are you assuming Skylab 2 is flown on the last Saturn V? And then what, after that re-enters?

I suppose Big Gemini or something could be used to reboost a Skylab...

Or the CSM. That big motor on the back has to be useful for something after all ;)

But more broadly, it doesn't really matter. Oh, sure, it would be interesting to know. But the point is that the sum total of human spaceflight efforts through most of the 1970s is expendable capsules on expendable rockets going into LEO or occasionally, and more often later in the decade, to a space station in LEO. In other words, just like OTL except with NASA doing it to. It doesn't really matter if the capsules are CSMs, Big Geminis, or some weird third option; it doesn't matter if the rockets are Titans, Saturns, or Atlases; and it doesn't matter if the space station is Skylab, LORL, or something else entirely. The cultural effects (which is what I'm really interested in here, forgive the title) should be fairly similar every way.
 

Thande

Donor
Or the CSM. That big motor on the back has to be useful for something after all ;)
Not really considering the Saturn IB couldn't launch a fuelled CSM...

I suppose they could have built the Saturn II with solid strap-ons the way they were considering, that might have done it.
 
Not really considering the Saturn IB couldn't launch a fuelled CSM...

Fully fuelled. It could launch about 41,000 lbs into LEO, and the unfuelled mass of the CSM was only about 26,000 lbs...it's not like it needed the full potential delta-V of the engine just for a reboost, so the 15,000 lbs of propellant that could be carried was quite adequate. (And that was, in fact, what was done OTL...Skylab 4 gave it an 11 km boost when they left. It was just a more active than predicted solar cycle, delays to the Shuttle program, and a certain unwillingness to take all possible measures to preserve the station that meant it had reentered by STS-1)
 

Archibald

Banned
I have to react. This is the alt-history I'm writting for a long time !

Heppenheimer "the space shuttle decision" is a good start.

Notably this part

The context: September 1969. Thomas Paine space Task Group proposed three options
- Mars 1981
- Mars 1986 (Baxter Voyage !!)
- Mars "somewhere around 2000"

Each with different budget levels.

Nixon advisors answers with some different options, all with much lower budget...

One alternative, at $3.5 billion per year, eliminated NERVA and stopped production of Saturn V and Apollo spacecraft. This option, however, would maintain a vigorous program in piloted flight, featuring Skylab with three visits as well as six additional Apollo lunar missions. Better yet, such a budget would accommodate "Space Transportation System and Space Station module development with launch of both in 1979."
Two other options, at $2.5 billion, also permitted flight of Skylab with its three visits, along with the six Apollos. There could even be a space station in 1980, with Titan III-Gemini for logistics. However, there would be no space shuttle. NASA-Marshall would close, while activity at the Manned Spacecraft Center would fall substantially.

The $2.5 billion options is the very basis of my own alt-history. and considering the mess they have done on Constellation, MARSHALL SHOULD BE CLOSED !!! :(
 

Archibald

Banned
And by the way, Apollo reboosts of Skylab was trough the small reaction and control thrusters, not the huge SPS. The workshop structure couldn't withstand the big thrust.
 
some Note

the first Skylab had reserve for a fith mission
"Skylab 5" short 20 day mission had to launch in April 1974
new scientific experiments and boost Skylab into a higher orbit for later use.

IMHO it wat better to DEORBIT Frist Skylab on end of its Mission (the Station was damage during launch)
on his experiences make adaptations on Second Skylab and launch it

the second Skylab had be launch during January 1975 until April 1976
using last three Saturn IB and CSM, then soviet SOYUZ (ASTP mission) ! until Shuttle is ready
the last Saturn V launch a second workshop module and international payloads for Skylab

so in TL with no Shuttle
Rockwell can start build modify version CSM ( 6 Astronauts, LM engine & Cargo canister in SM )
launch by Titan IIIC or IIID in 1977/1978
 
Here's an idea that just came to my mind. The Mars Underground, which went on to lead to a lot of Mars colonization ideas later incorporated into the present-day Mars Society's agenda, was spawned in the late 1970s. One of the reasons for this was that this was a particularly sleepy period in Space Exploration, and minds wandered, eventually landing on the issue of Mars, which Chris McKay managed to get into a series of large seminars. If NASA is actually doing something manned in the late 1970s, perhaps the energy and momentum that went into the Mars Underground instead goes into Space Stations.

Source: The Case for Mars
 
See, this is all great, but it has no bearing on the question whatsoever.

Did you read the PDF I posted? From the summary:

This report documents a study of a possible interim Earth orbital manned space flight program that would maintain continuous manned flights between the Skylab I mission and Space Station I Base operation. Although the Space Shuttle would become operational near the end of these interim missions, its impact upon this program was not evaluated. It considered an evolutionary, gradual, and step-wise spacecraft systems technology development from those as used on the Apollos and Skylab I to that required for the Space Station. The four mission spacecraft were dry workshop versions of the Saturn IV-B stage, and each would be individually configured, outfitted and launched by INT-21 vehicles. These spacecraft were evaluated for crews of three, six and nine men and for mission lifetimes of one year. Two versions of the Apollo CSM, a three man and a four man crew, were considered as the logistic vehicle. The Apollo CSM's would be inserted into orbit by either Titan 111-M, Saturn I-B, or Solid Rocket Motored Saturn IV-B launch vehicles. Only the SRM Saturn IV-B vehicle can insert the crew, Apollo CSM and necessary logistics load with one launch.

In other words, keeping Syklab I going was not in the cards in 1973, but launching a series of them (like the Soviets did with Salyut) potentially was. And since this study ignores Shuttle, it should fit into your TL...
 
Did you read the PDF I posted? From the summary:



In other words, keeping Syklab I going was not in the cards in 1973, but launching a series of them (like the Soviets did with Salyut) potentially was. And since this study ignores Shuttle, it should fit into your TL...

Yes, see, but as I said I'm not interested in the technology. That's why I said Skylab-type flights; your plan works perfectly well in that. What I'm interested in are the cultural impacts (and yes, it will come in handy for research. Thank you), not what exact path is followed or end is reached.
 
Effects of no shuttle program and continued *Skylab flights on SF?

oh yes a big one
alot of Sci-Fi movies will not have Space Shuttle because lack of STS models
Airfix STS Model were used as "raw materials" for Movie Model like NOSTROMO of Alien (1979)
means they need other models wat give different look on NOSTROMO as OTL

Buck Roger Tv Serie (1979 - 1981) were
Captain "Buck" Rogers, a NASA pilot who commands Ranger 3, a Capsule type craft that is launched in May 1987
Armageddon (1998) by Michael Bay,
were Skylab 3 is destroyed by a meteor shower. NASA launch unmanned Apollo's with very big Nuke to destroy large asteroid.
(Bay takes the ICARUS proposal from M.i.T)
The film was crucified by the critics and Crew of Skylab 3 as "most stupid remake of METEOR ever..."

while in Alternate Histroy:
Harry Turtledove write series of book were NASA use Space Shuttle :D
Stephen Baxter write novell "Titan Downfall"
were NASA kill Apollo, take Space Shuttle and ran into deep Problems and is closed after serie deathly disaster !
in AH Forums they discuss about of Space Shuttle had NASA give golden era of cheap spaceflight...
 
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