WI: Second Great Depression Starts in 1959

[theReturner]

I recall reading that after World War II, their was some fear that that pattern that fallowed World War I would repeat. Meaning, their would be a time of economic prosperity and inovation, but it would eventually burt and another depression would set in. Stalin was actully banking on this, hoping it would mean America would go Communist.

Obviously this never happened, and we had more or less six decades of American lead economic growth. Granted, their were a few recessions in that time, but nothing as bad as the 30's.

So, my question is, what if their was a Second Great Depression, starting in 1959, thrity years after the first. To further mirror the first, lets say it starts in new York and quickly spreads aroud the world. How will the various Governments around the world react, and what will the effects be on ordinary people?

For some parts of the world, I suspect Communism will become more popular, countries being closer to the USSR and China probably the most likely.

In America, I think the Eisenhower Administration would become more and more unpopular, which proably leads to a Kennedy landslide over Nixon in 1960. Other than that, I'm not sure what would happen.

Any thoughts?

[RogueBeaver]

Problem is that the 1958-60 recession was a small bump in the road economically speaking- just another dip in the business cycle. But since previous conditions had resembled the 1990s in middle class prosperity, the consequences were politically fatal for Nixon. Nixon always blamed Martin (Fed Chmn) for not making enough "Keynesessions" and loosening the money supply, thus costing him the election. Then again, Nixon was always willing to cause long-term economic pain for political gain, as his presidency proved IOTL.

[wolf_brother]

How are you going to get a 'Great' Depression in '59? The reason for constant American growth from the end of WWII to the start of the Great Recession were the checks, balances and regulations put in place following the Depression. You'd have to ASB-away most, if not all, of them first before you can get a Second Great Depression - and the butterfly swarm from that alone would render the initial reasons moot.

[loughery111]

Originally Posted by wolf_brother

How are you going to get a 'Great' Depression in '59? The reason for constant American growth from the end of WWII to the start of the Great Recession were the checks, balances and regulations put in place following the Depression. You'd have to ASB-away most, if not all, of them first before you can get a Second Great Depression - and the butterfly swarm from that alone would render the initial reasons moot.

Um... no. Those checks and balances smoothed the business cycle and ensured a slightly slower but much steadier rate of growth than had prevailed before. However, they weren't the reason behind the growth, they merely smoothed it. The vast industrial overcapacity built up by America in the 1940's and 50's was the primary reason behind huge economic growth, that and the massive increase in world trade, primarily with Europe and Japan. Let's get real, regulations don't cause growth... rather, as their name suggests, they regulate it. This can be good or bad, depending on the regulatory effect.

[truth is life]

Originally Posted by loughery111

Um... no. Those checks and balances smoothed the business cycle and ensured a slightly slower but much steadier rate of growth than had prevailed before. However, they weren't the reason behind the growth, they merely smoothed it. The vast industrial overcapacity built up by America in the 1940's and 50's was the primary reason behind huge economic growth, that and the massive increase in world trade, primarily with Europe and Japan. Let's get real, regulations don't cause growth... rather, as their name suggests, they regulate it. This can be good or bad, depending on the regulatory effect.

But that was what he was saying...the reason for constant growth was the regulations and such.

[theReturner]

I wasn't interested in How it could happen, I was interested in What would happen if it did occur.

[wolf_brother]

Well, the responses to the 'What' question will depend on the 'How' question's answers. Any way of getting a slightly more detailed POD, OP?

[theReturner]

This is an Alternate History Forum. Sometimes you have to hand wave an issue to get to the real queation that's being asked.

[Emperor Norton I]

Ayn Rand would have to be right...in which case, the universe would implode on itself.

[TNF]

A Second 'Great Depression' is fundamentally impossible when you have all of the checks and balances of the New Deal and Bretton Woods in existence. And even if it did happen, Eisenhower and/or Kennedy would quickly prime the pump and bring the Depression to a quick end.