WI: Nixon has a Normal Presidency

[DSS]

Two PODs involved here:

1) Spiro Agnew avoids the bribes as Governor of Maryland. His accepting those bribes led to his resignation from the vice presidency in October 1973, so if he had a "clean" governorship, he would not have resigned.

2) No Watergate, or as far as the public knows.

So, with both of these PODs in mind, let's assume the first term of Richard Nixon as president goes exactly like OTL, and Nixon/Agnew is re-elected in a landslide over George McGovern in 1972. However, the Watergate scandal is avoided, and Nixon and Agnew serve a full second term as POTUS and VPOTUS.

1) What would have happened in a Nixon second term without Watergate?

2) How does the '76 election turn out? Does Spiro Agnew run for POTUS? If so, what happens to Ronald Reagan? Does Jimmy Carter run, and win the Democratic nomination?

[RogueBeaver]

Avoiding those bribes would mean a 1967 POD. Butterflies can create a very different '68 election- too late to save Johnson but among other things you can pre-empt Gene's candidacy. Assuming everything occurs as per OTL... Just destroy the tapes or install a manual system- "never write it down".

Nixon will likely get CHIP from Ted Kennedy. UHC (though TNF will dispute CHIP being true UHC) from a Republican President. Some fits and starts on energy independence, no one really attempts to tackle the economic problem. Agnew would not run for POTUS. Nixon wanted his successor to either be Connally or Reagan. Seeing as Connally is a former Democrat with ethical issues of his own, the nomination likely goes to Reagan. Perhaps Reagan falls under Friedman's influence and becomes a monetarist, thus avoiding the debt problem created by voodoo economics. Nixon will initiate another bombing campaign in 1975 to kill the HCM offensive in its tracks. If Reagan is elected, he will continue helping SVN. Nixon fights Congress tooth-and-nail on Angola- perhaps Angola-Contra without it becoming public knowledge?

Carter was a nobody who came in because of the desire for an outsider following Watergate. Without Watergate the Dems would do best with Scoop Jackson. They won't get their first DLC presidential candidate until Gary Hart- Scoop is a tried-and-true New Dealer like 90% of senior Democrats until the 1980s. To ideologically balance the ticket, Scoop picks Lloyd Bentsen as his running mate.

[1940LaSalle]

This may be a bit of an idiosyncratic slant, but seeing as how I'm originally from Baltimore, and was in high school when Agnew was governor of MD, perhaps I can offer a tad of insight that others might not have.

First, Agnew's walk on the wrong side of the law was largely separate from his tenure as vice president, and had nothing to do directly with the Nixon administration; it was thorough small-time venality. It should go without saying that had Nixon known about this, Agnew would have been dropped instantly (by the way, Nixon's second choice was RI senator John Volpe).

Second, Agnew was in a position very roughly comparable to Joe McCarthy perhaps sixteen years earlier: that is, popular with the Great Unwashed but far less so with the party bigwigs. There was a considerable dump-Agnew move afoot that (I recall) got sidetracked by Watergate. Eliminate Watergate, and Agnew is probably out for the '72 election, replaced by perhaps someone less strident. Maybe Volpe would get his turn after all; maybe it would have been Gerald Ford. In any event, the GOP masterminds didn't really see Agnew as Oval Office material, and given Nixon's experience as a quasi-involved VP with some grooming for the presidency, I could see Nixon wanting a VP who had a real shot at succeeding him. And Agnew didn't really fit that mold.

One further note on Agnew: he became governor of MD in 1966 by virtue of a deep rift in the Democrats. MD is one of the bluest states in the union now, and was just as heavily Democratic then. But in 1966, the regular organization suffered hijacking led by long-time hack/ward heeler George P. Mahoney, who ran for governor on the Democrats' ticket with the slogan "A Man's Home is his Castle", which then was a very thinly veiled campaign against anti-discriminatory real estate selling practices. Back then, in MD as well as many more southern locations, there was subtle and not-so-subtle racism practiced in the real estate market, when it was not yet law that equal consideration had to be given to all potential buyers. A lot of sellers would turn down a black family's offer even though it might be financially better to keep a neighborhood all white--and Mahoney not quite overtly endorsed that practice as well as a lot of other anti-integration practices and policies.

So…the Eastern Shore of MD, which in many places is indistinguishable from Mississippi or Arkansas, went heavily for Mahoney. Same is true for southern MD. The DC 'burbs leaned toward the independent Hyman Pressman (normally a regular organization Democrat who was disgusted with the party choice of Mahoney), as did the city of Baltimore. Western MD and the Baltimore 'burbs, especially Baltimore County, split votes but gave Agnew just enough to squeak in with a plurality.

I should also note that before becoming governor of MD, Agnew was the county executive of Baltimore County--and he won that election only because of a prior split in the local Democrats also. Thus, without two splits in the otherwise-monolithic MD Democrats, Agnew would have gone exactly nowhere in his public life.

[RogueBeaver]

You mean Massachusetts Governor John Volpe. He lost his own state to Rocky as a Nixon proxy. All the proxies were thumped that year: Branigin and Lynch for the Dems, and Volpe for the GOP.

Wasn't Mahoney basically a Northern Wallace? Unlike Wallace, who only lost one election (1958, which turned him from moderate to OTL Wallace) in Alabama, Mahoney kept losing until he started using race as his platform.

[1940LaSalle]

Originally Posted by RogueBeaver

You mean Massachusetts Governor John Volpe. He lost his own state to Rocky as a Nixon proxy. All the proxies were thumped that year: Branigin and Lynch for the Dems, and Volpe for the GOP.

Wasn't Mahoney basically a Northern Wallace? Unlike Wallace, who only lost one election (1958, which turned him from moderate to OTL Wallace) in Alabama, Mahoney kept losing until he started using race as his platform.

Drat: would've sworn Volpe was from RI. Oh, well.

I wouldn't classify Mahoney as a northern George Wallace: Wallace was far more professional and polished. Mahoney was a Baltimore paving contractor who wanted to get into electoral politics but never made it to any significant degree. He threw around money, was sort of popular with the rank and file (read: lower blue collar white Democrats) and was a thinly veiled sort of racist (you'd never catch him using the N word, for example, but he had all the code words right). The last I knew of him, he managed to finagle his way into the top slot (I think) with the MD lottery: somehow, that seemed thoroughly fitting.

Most knew him as a hack political wannabe. Had MD ever elected him to a statewide office, my sense is that regret would have set in almost instantly, and he'd have served one term in whatever it was before getting thrown out in the electorate's equivalent of taking a long, hot shower after doing something dirty.

Let's put it like this: I don't think you'd find more than two or three per cent of Mahoney's supporters with any college education at all, never mind college graduates. And his black supporters you could probably count on the fingers of two hands (and I'm being generous).

[Emperor Norton I]

Originally Posted by DudeAlmighty947

2) No Watergate, or as far as the public knows.

Far less disillusion by the general public. I said this better somewhere else before but in summary, the Kennedy assassination set us on the road to a loss of innocence and Watergate solidified that process. Tricky Dick remains somewhat polarizing; really left wing Liberals view him as corrupt, Conservative view all the talk about him being crooked as Democrat slander, and everyone middle, left of centre, and right of center views him as one of the greatest presidents of the century, only surpassed by FDR and Teddy Roosevelt.

2) How does the '76 election turn out? Does Spiro Agnew run for POTUS? If so, what happens to Ronald Reagan? Does Jimmy Carter run, and win the Democratic nomination?

Agnew's candidacy would be an interesting prospect, but I'm not sure of its success unless Nixon was really gung ho on getting him elected, which I doubt he would be. You have Connally, Nixon's beloved turncoat Democrat, and Reagan, a superstar of the GOP. A Reagan/Connally ticket would be interesting.
Carter wouldn't win the nomination. His "I won't lie to you", Washington outsider image won't fly without Watergate, and he was a virtual unknown; something that helped after Watergate when everyone wanted someone who wasn't "corrupted" by Washington but would hurt in this case.

[RogueBeaver]

Oops- I almost forgot. Pre-Watergate media SOPs remain in force for another decade. Once the 24-hour news cycle hits in the 1980s it will come to an end. I've described those SOPs at length elsewhere but in summary, "friend to be protected at all costs", not "enemy to dig up dirt on, embarrass and destroy if required". Since Nixon was never the beneficiary of those SOPs (he treated journalists with aloofness or stunted friendliness, much like Hillary in '08) and Reagan went over their heads, this will mostly apply on lower levels than the Presidency.

[fortyseven]

He gets the 22nd Amendment repealed due to warorcoughsomething. Nixon is re-elected 4 times. He steps down in 1987 to spend time with his family.

Edit: Seriously, it'd be cool if Nixon was one of the greats.

[RogueBeaver]

Re 22nd: as much as I'd love to see it repealed, repeal is ASB.

[Cook]

Hmmm, using Nixon and normal in the same sentence….

[RogueBeaver]

Nixon was an Orthogonian, so of course he's "normal".

[ah-sue]

I misread - thought this thread was 'WI: Nixon has a Normal Pregnancy'.

Sorry.

[RogueBeaver]

Well, the Dems did create a memorable '68 poster which had "Nixon's The One" GOP slogan over a heavily pregnant Girl Guide. But pregnant... FORK ME NOW! *applies max dose of brain soap*

[Emperor Norton I]

In 1960, the Democrats also paid a bunch of pregnant women to dress up like nuns and parade outside of something like the GOP headquarters with picket signs saying "Nixon's The One".

[RogueBeaver]

I don't think the Kennedy campaign would authorize the nuns thing for obvious reasons. RFK would blow 2-3 gaskets for one, which isn't easy on the eardrums.

[Emperor Norton I]

Originally Posted by RogueBeaver

I don't think the Kennedy campaign would authorize the nuns thing for obvious reasons. RFK would blow 2-3 gaskets for one, which isn't easy on the eardrums.

I believe it was local party, not national.