Gavrilo hits the groin.

[eddie]

What if, in 1914, Gavrilo Princip for some reason only manages to get of one shot at the Archduke Franz Ferdinand? But, instead of killing him he blows of his little general.

It would still be an asassination attempt but I don't know with whom the world would sympathize. Austria would probably still make their demands on Serbia, and they would most likely be rejected(like in OTL).
I don't think Germany would give them the "blank check" they were given in OTL. I was thinking more along the lines of an Austrian civil war, the minorities not wanting to be ruled by a dickless Archduke and all that.

What do you think?

[Grey Wolf]

Originally Posted by eddie

What if, in 1914, Gavrilo Princip for some reason only manages to get of one shot at the Archduke Franz Ferdinand? But, instead of killing him he blows of his little general.

It would still be an asassination attempt but I don't know with whom the world would sympathize. Austria would probably still make their demands on Serbia, and they would most likely be rejected(like in OTL).
I don't think Germany would give them the "blank check" they were given in OTL. I was thinking more along the lines of an Austrian civil war, the minorities not wanting to be ruled by a dickless Archduke and all that.

What do you think?

Well the 'wounding not killing' is a good question, but its unlikely he could shoot his groin as he would have had to either fire from above or get a deflection

Grey Wolf

[Landshark]

What about Sophie? Is she unharmed, wounded or killed? And how does Frnaz Ferdinand react to the latter?

[David S Poepoe]

I doubt that even a failed assassination will butterfly out the Great War. What the Princip and the Black Hand are involved in is terrorism and the Serbian Government is pretty much in the same place as the Taliban, to consider modern equvalents. This is no minor assassination attempt, but an attack on the Austro-Hungarian Head of State - so to speak.

If the Austrians were not to take a very harsh line with such an event, they will be virtually welcoming the Black Hand to make further assassination attempts. Relations between Serbia and AH was not good at the time and the Serbians greatly resented the Austrians for the annexation of Bosnia-Herzegovina. The continuation of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the idea of Greater Serbia are on a collision course, and the Serbs never recognized that they should have just remained a second class power.

On the whole I have my doubts about the ability of an individual shot in the groin to recover at all. For the time period and the availability of immediate medical attention in Sarajevo I wouldn't be surprised if Franz-Ferdinand just bleeds to death or dies of infection.

The Germans will still stand by their Austrian allies and give them their "blank cheque" since they need to. Without the AH they will be standing alone between the French and Russians. I think the AH Empire has alot of life left into it and in no immenient danger of collapsing. You should also equally blame the Russians for standing by the regicidal Serbians.

[eddie]

Sophie is alive, and i only wanted the Archduke wounded(preferably in a humiliaiting way) in order to get sympathy from the great powers.
But not so much sympathy that they're allowed to start a war(which only Germany permitted anyway).

A shouting match between Austria and Serbia that later develops into a regional war seems more likely. In order for it to remain local the Serbs would have to be the antagonists. Perhaps they incite a rebellion in Bosnia, and the Austrians come down really hard on their Serbs. Serbia, in the spirit of patriotism, decides to aid their Bosnian countymen in the war and all hell breaks loose in the Balkans.

That's my idea for avoiding the first world war, or at least posponing it.

[David S Poepoe]

Originally Posted by eddie

Sophie is alive, and i only wanted the Archduke wounded(preferably in a humiliaiting way) in order to get sympathy from the great powers.
But not so much sympathy that they're allowed to start a war(which only Germany permitted anyway).

A shouting match between Austria and Serbia that later develops into a regional war seems more likely. In order for it to remain local the Serbs would have to be the antagonists. Perhaps they incite a rebellion in Bosnia, and the Austrians come down really hard on their Serbs. Serbia, in the spirit of patriotism, decides to aid their Bosnian countymen in the war and all hell breaks loose in the Balkans.

That's my idea for avoiding the first world war, or at least posponing it.

The Serbians were the antagonists!! If the Austrians had moved directly against the Serbs immediately after the assassination (or here the assassination attempt) then most of the Europeans wouldn't have minded it.

A remaining problem is that as Guardian of the Slavs Russia isn't going to allow Serbia to be humiliated. I don't think the Southern Slavs in Austro-Hungary would revolt, I think they were economically better off than being in Serbia. Which is one bone of contention that the Black Hand had with Franz-Ferdinand, they feared that he would enact political reforms that would make life better of Austrian Slavs and cause them not to want to be part of Great Serbia.

Actually, the two great powers that were spoiling for a fight in 1914 were the French and Russians. That the Great War was an example of brinksmanship gone awry is true, but the Germans were not catalyst.

[Tyr]

Isn't the groin one of the best kill zones?

[Glen]

Originally Posted by eddie

What if, in 1914, Gavrilo Princip for some reason only manages to get of one shot at the Archduke Franz Ferdinand? But, instead of killing him he blows of his little general.

It would still be an asassination attempt but I don't know with whom the world would sympathize. Austria would probably still make their demands on Serbia, and they would most likely be rejected(like in OTL).
I don't think Germany would give them the "blank check" they were given in OTL. I was thinking more along the lines of an Austrian civil war, the minorities not wanting to be ruled by a dickless Archduke and all that.

What do you think?

Nothing. Franz Ferdinand would likely try to downplay the entire thing, and counter Kaiser Bill's proddings.

Since he's in a Morganic Marriage anyway, his children (of whom there are already several) can't inherit, so his ability to father more is irrelevant.

By all accounts, he and his wife were in one of the great lovematches of history, so I think Sophia would stand by him.

He inherits in 1916, and maybe throws himself a little more into governance since certain other outlets are no longer available.

[Chengar Qordath]

It might be interesting if Franz Ferdinand was not seriously injured, but Sophie was killed in the assassination attempt. Given the nature of his relationship with her that very likely would send FF into a vengeful rage, so we might see Austria-Hungary move quickly decisively against the Serbs, rather than dithering for a month and letting the initial shock and anger over the killing die down.

Russia would not like losing the Serbs, but I think an immediate attack and quick Austrian victory would present Russia with a fait accompli; certainly the Tsar is not going to be estatic about encouraging regicides. If Austria had acted quickly Russia might well have decided to give up Serbia, and shift to some other Balkan state as their favored proxy; Bulgaria seems the most likely choice, especially since the Bulgars can take Macedonia while Serbia is being crushed.

On a semi-related note, I am a little fuzzy on why Russia stopped sponsoring Bulgaria in favor of Serbia, given that Russia's main interest in the Balkans is Constantinople and the straits, which Bulgaria is in a much better position to threaten than Serbia.

[stevep]

Originally Posted by Chengar Qordath

It might be interesting if Franz Ferdinand was not seriously injured, but Sophie was killed in the assassination attempt. Given the nature of his relationship with her that very likely would send FF into a vengeful rage, so we might see Austria-Hungary move quickly decisively against the Serbs, rather than dithering for a month and letting the initial shock and anger over the killing die down.

Russia would not like losing the Serbs, but I think an immediate attack and quick Austrian victory would present Russia with a fait accompli; certainly the Tsar is not going to be estatic about encouraging regicides. If Austria had acted quickly Russia might well have decided to give up Serbia, and shift to some other Balkan state as their favored proxy; Bulgaria seems the most likely choice, especially since the Bulgars can take Macedonia while Serbia is being crushed.

On a semi-related note, I am a little fuzzy on why Russia stopped sponsoring Bulgaria in favor of Serbia, given that Russia's main interest in the Balkans is Constantinople and the straits, which Bulgaria is in a much better position to threaten than Serbia.

Chengar

Historically Bulgaria was Russia's main proxy in the region but this ended during the Balkan wars in 1912-13. Fairly complex but both sides made a mess of their diplomacy. Due to the geography Bulgaria did the bulk of the fighting. This included getting greedy after early successes and making a grab for Constantinople. Partly due to this and the geographical layout Serbia ending up occupying the bulk of the Macedonian lands the Bulgarians wanted. [Some suggestion when I read a book about this that the population identified more with Bulgaria than the other powers]. There was a pre-war agreement that would have given Bulgaria a proportion of those lands. However Serbia's designs on Albania and getting a coastline were blocked by Austria at the great power conference on resolving the issue so it was less willing to give back any territory. Furthermore Bulgaria was also getting greedy in the SW, trying to make a claim for Salonika, which Greece had occupied with a small Bulgarian force also present. Hence Bulgaria suffered a lot of losses for less gains than it thought it deserved. Also Rumania pressurised it out of some land in the north, to balance Bulgarian gains, while the Bulgarian army was tied up with the Turks.

The immediate result of this was that Bulgaria and Serbia/Greece found themselves on opposite sides in the 2nd Balkan War. A poorly organised attack was largely called off at the last minute, giving Bulgaria the worst of both worlds in having no success but the blame for the 2nd war. It was already struggling to hold those two when Turkey and Rumania ploughed in and really carved the country up.

This affected relations between Russia and Bulgaria because the Bulgarians thought they had an agreement for Russian support and were dissatisfied with the diplomatic support they did get. I get the impression that Bulgaria really made a pigs-ear of its diplomacy in this period. If it hadn't have antagonised Greece by staking a claim for Salonika it might well have been able to handle Serbia on its own or pressurise it into giving up at least some of the disputed lands. Instead of losing further land to the Turks, who got back the Adrianople area and Rumania. It also felt bitter about events, especially to Serbia, its main opponent and Russia, which it felt had deserted it.

With relations between Russia and Bulgaria poisoned Russia was left with Serbia as its only real client/ally in the region, which may be one reason it was so determined to support Serbia against Austria.

Steve

[Dayton Kitchens]

World War anyway. Europe had been primed for more than 40 years for a big one.

[Franz Josef II]

Not necessarily. Had Austria either invaded Serbia immediately after the incident, or requested a meeting of the Great Powers to sort out the matter, things would have been very different. Things only went from bad to worse in our timeline because: A. Russia declared war on Austria when Austria declared war on Serbia; B. Germany declared war on Russia to support Austria; C.France declared war on Germany to support Russia; D. Great Britain declared war on Germany ONLY when Germany invaded Belgium and referred to the Treaty which guaranteed Belgium's existence and neutrality as a 'scrap of paper.'

Before the Great War there were, yes, areas of contention that could get quite hot it is conceivable: the deteriorating relations between Germany and Britain due mainly to a provocative Naval construction program, and the Kaiser's bumbling inanities such as offering an interview to a British newspaper to smooth things over which instead made things worse.

Austria and Russia re: the Balkans
Germany's desire for greater colonial holdings.
I could probably think of more, but I'm tired. So yes, any one of these could have led to a war, but not necessarily.

[Max Sinister]

It was Germany which declared war on Russia (which had started to mobilize before, though) and France first.