Alternate Astronauts?

[truth is life]

(I've tried this before but got essentially no responses, so I'll give it another shot)

If NASA took astronaut groups in the period between groups 7 and 8 (ie, during the '70s), who do you see as likely candidates? Due to the civil rights movement and the women's rights movement, I see it as quite likely that NASA begins to hire minority and female astronauts, but surely some of the ones hired IOTL (in group 8) would not have been available earlier for some reason or another (Sally Ride, for instance, would have been doing her Ph.D. during the early part of the decade). So presumably different candidates could have come up. The remaining Mercury 13, perhaps? I know the Air Force was planning to fly Robert H. Lawrence, but he died in an accident in 1967. So who else might have flown?

[Emperor Norton I]

I'm a bit of a space-head but there's a lot of holes in my knowledge. For enlightenment sake and as it concerns this topic, when the NASA move more from using military men as astronauts to civilians?

[truth is life]

Originally Posted by Emperor Norton I

I'm a bit of a space-head but there's a lot of holes in my knowledge. For enlightenment sake and as it concerns this topic, when the NASA move more from using military men as astronauts to civilians?

I believe the first (partially) civilian group was 'The Scientists', Group 4; only Schmitt and Gibson had no military experience (though several others were ex-military, not active duty). This was followed by Group 6 ('The Excess Eleven'), which also was mostly composed of civilian scientists. The first group where jet flight was dropped as a requirement was Group 8 ('Thirty-Five New Guys'), which was also the beginning of the mission specialist program. I would say that the first group for which NASA was really hiring civilians would be Group 8; previously, the civilians hired were mostly to fill specific roles, whereas with Group 8 they were just sort of astronauts. That was probably because they were trying to move to a more general system with the Space Shuttle. Garm and 51-L are pretty good examples of that tendency, but it showed up earlier too, they wanted to minimize astronaut training since the mid '70s at least.

[Ward]

First and for most they would of had to be Eagle scouts .
For all of the men who went to the Moon or into space in the 60 or 70's from the US were Eagle Scouts .

[Cook]

I read a magazine article ages ago about a number of female civilian test pilots in the 60s that had been considered for the space program and then ruled out.
Several had performed better than John Glen in all the testing.

Cant remember any details any more about it sorry but it’s worth chasing up.

[truth is life]

Originally Posted by Cook

I read a magazine article ages ago about a number of female civilian test pilots in the 60s that had been considered for the space program and then ruled out.
Several had performed better than John Glen in all the testing.

Cant remember any details any more about it sorry but it’s worth chasing up.

The Mercury 13, probably. I dunno, they're getting a little old (just like the other male Mercury candidates).

[simonbp]

Originally Posted by truth is life

The Mercury 13, probably. I dunno, they're getting a little old (just like the other male Mercury candidates).

There's a lot of myth around them. It turns out they were "tested" by one of the doctors involved in the NASA selection process, but not by NASA itself, and thus not the full process. And they guy who did it was trying to make a political point, so he isn't exactly the most reliable source.

WRT the original question, Scott Crossfield, Pete Knight, and any of the other X-15 pilots come to mind, especially the ones who were in the X-20 (Dyna Soar) program.

[arrowiv]

My choices would include the ill-fated Gemini-Apollo astronauts Ted Freeman, Elliot See, Charlie Bassett, Ed Givens, and C. C. Williams. Those guys had a lot going for them and showed great promise within the astronaut corps. All but Givens were killed in T-38 crashes, Givens in a car wreck in Houston in 1967. Freeman was seen as perhaps the best pilot of the third astronaut selection and a great choice for a latter Gemini flight. Bassett could have been on Apollo 8 and even Apollo 11. Williams was to have been LMP pilot for Apollo 12.
Of course, there is always the Apollo 1 crew. According to original plan, Gus Grissom would have been the first man on the moon.

[Don Lardo]

Originally Posted by truth is life

(Sally Ride, for instance, would have been doing her Ph.D. during the early part of the decade).

I think the part I quoted above partially answers your question.

So, it's the 1970s and everything is about affirmative action. NASA looks at hiring minority/female pilots and/or scientists, but how big is the pool of minority/female pilots and scientists they can select from?

Even once the organizations who produce pilots and scientists apply affirmative action, it's still going to take time for people to move through the pipeline. NASA is waiting on the output end of the process, so it must wait for the process to bear fruit.

NASA will hire and train minority/female astronauts. In the early 1970s however, any potential candidates for the NASA program are still in the [b]pre-/b]-NASA pipeline learning to be pilots and scientists.

[truth is life]

Originally Posted by Don Lardo

I think the part I quoted above partially answers your question.

So, it's the 1970s and everything is about affirmative action. NASA looks at hiring minority/female pilots and/or scientists, but how big is the pool of minority/female pilots and scientists they can select from?

Even once the organizations who produce pilots and scientists apply affirmative action, it's still going to take time for people to move through the pipeline. NASA is waiting on the output end of the process, so it must wait for the process to bear fruit.

NASA will hire and train minority/female astronauts. In the early 1970s however, any potential candidates for the NASA program are still in the [b]pre-/b]-NASA pipeline learning to be pilots and scientists.

Well, that's not completely true. If the Air Force can find minority astronauts within its own ranks (pre-1970, too--these guys weren't exactly a bastion of affirmative action!) surely NASA can, too. Guion Bluford, for instance, had just finished getting his masters about the middle of the decade--he could probably have become an astronaut at any point after that, if NASA had been hiring. Even before affirmative action, there's a small trickle of women and minorities moving through the pipeline.

[Don Lardo]

Originally Posted by truth is life

Well, that's not completely true.

I didn't use any absolutes. I was pinting to the very small pool of potential candidates available before affirmative action produced results.

If the Air Force can find minority astronauts within its own ranks (pre-1970, too--these guys weren't exactly a bastion of affirmative action!) surely NASA can, too.

Apart from those who got into in the NASA program, how many of the USAF "astronauts" actually flew?

Guion Bluford, for instance, had just finished getting his masters about the middle of the decade--he could probably have become an astronaut at any point after that...

Middle of the decade, middle of the 1970s. I wrote about the early 1970s.

Even before affirmative action, there's a small trickle of women and minorities moving through the pipeline.

Sure, and how many would make the cut? It's a matter of numbers. Look at it this way.

There was a huge number of non-minority pilots and scientists available, but, when given the chance, how many stepped forward for astronaut training? After the volunteer phase, how many were accepted into the initial stages of the program? How many passed through each stage? How many made it through the process? How many actually flew? What was the "wastage" rate through all of that? 99%? Higher than 99%?

Now take a much smaller pool of applicants, minority/female pilots and scientists before affirmative action finally gave them the chance to become pilots and scientists. Apply the same wastage rate from before. How many whole numbers are the result?

If only one out of thousand white male candidates made it through the entire process start to finish and you only have 100 minority/female candidates going through the same process, what are the odds you'll have a successful minority/female candidate?

It's a numbers thing, not a competence issue.

[truth is life]

Originally Posted by Don Lardo

Apart from those who got into in the NASA program, how many of the USAF "astronauts" actually flew?

None, obviously. The USAF didn't have any (EDIT: human) space programs except MOL (which was kind of pan-military anyways--there were also Navy and Marine Corps pilots). Once that was shut down, it was NASA or nothing.

Originally Posted by Don Lardo

Sure, and how many would make the cut? It's a matter of numbers. Look at it this way.

There was a huge number of non-minority pilots and scientists available, but, when given the chance, how many stepped forward for astronaut training? After the volunteer phase, how many were accepted into the initial stages of the program? How many passed through each stage? How many made it through the process? How many actually flew? What was the "wastage" rate through all of that? 99%? Higher than 99%?

Now take a much smaller pool of applicants, minority/female pilots and scientists before affirmative action finally gave them the chance to become pilots and scientists. Apply the same wastage rate from before. How many whole numbers are the result?

If only one out of thousand white male candidates made it through the entire process start to finish and you only have 100 minority/female candidates going through the same process, what are the odds you'll have a successful minority/female candidate?

It's a numbers thing, not a competence issue.

The thing is the wastage rate isn't the same--with the white men, those are the guys who had no disadvantages. They just had to do average to get where they were.[1] The women and minorities? Hell, they had to work their ass off to get to wherever they were when NASA asked for them. They've probably got far more willpower on average than the white men. It's like they already had to pass some of the tests before they could even try the 'real' ones. So the numbers may be less, but more will tough it out.

Also, even the first selection, which was probably the most competitive, had a 500:7 applicants:selected ratio (and in fact there were 18 who passed all the tests). A lot of the 500 were dropped because NASA was imposing extremely high standards, and literally just ignored some applicants because they already had more than they needed. Because NASA already has a lot of astronauts, and because they have more flexible spacecraft (Apollo), the standards imposed needn't be so high, and they have a great deal of flexibility in choosing just who will become an astronaut.

I made a mistake up above when I said Group 4 was the first civilian group (or rather, first group with civilians in it). Technically, Group 2 had civilians, as did Group 3, but as all were pilots (and all members of Group 2 were military or ex-military), this doesn't change the main thrust that a true civilian astronaut corps did not come into being until Group 8.

EDIT: Also, NASA probably isn't going to be recruiting until the mid-70s anyways. Except under really optimal conditions, NASA was simply not going to be expanding during that decade--its budget was always going to fall after the Moon Race, unless something really unlikely (Alien Space Bats flying down to the White House lawn, Russian landing on the Moon first--in that order of plausibility!) happened. They had quite a few astronauts by 1970, so until that wears down a bit they just aren't going to go looking for more people to sit around in Houston.

EDIT2: [1]: By which I mean they had to do average for an average astronaut applicant, of course.

[Don Lardo]

Originally Posted by truth is life

The thing is the wastage rate isn't the same--with the white men, those are the guys who had no disadvantages. They just had to do average to get where they were. The women and minorities? Hell, they had to work their ass off to get to wherever they were when NASA asked for them.

But how many existed before affirmative action?

Look at the numbers you quoted. In a nation of ~160 million, a nation producing tens of thousands of pilots since 1940, and a nation with the GI Bill, you had all of 500 men step forward to be potential astronauts and, of those, 18 were selected.

You're beginning with a pool that essentially includes all white male college graduates and pilot and ending up with 18 men. Just when and why all the others were dropped; didn't want to go into space, NASA had too many applicants already, etc, doesn't actually matter. You've gone from a huge number to a minuscule one. There's a huge wastage rate at work here.

Now, what's the size of the pool of minority and female candidates? It's a numbers game, not a competence issue.

The overwhelming majority of white male pilots chose not to be even considered by NASA and the overwhelming majority of minority and female pilots will make the same choice. The huge number of white male pilots produced an applicant pool of 500 men. What number is the far smaller pool of minority and female pilots going to produce? It won't be fifty, it might not even be five.

Now put those applicants through the same 500:18 winnowing process that occurred historically. Let's even use you're suggestion that minorities and women will be more driven, because I believe they would be too, and up the winnowing ratio by 100% to 500:36.

An applicant pool of 50, which is nonsense in my estimation, will get you 4 minority/female astronauts. An applicant pool of 5, which is closer to a more plausible number, will get you no minority/female astronauts even though you've doubled the historical acceptance rate.

Again, it's a numbers issue and not competence problem.

EDIT: Also, NASA probably isn't going to be recruiting until the mid-70s anyways.

And, as I've pointed out several times now, by the mid-1970s the effects of affirmative action on US society as a whole will mean that the pool of potential minority and female astronauts will be much, much larger. That larger pool means you'll have a much, much larger chance of a minority/female astronaut and that's precisely what happened.

[truth is life]

Originally Posted by Don Lardo

But how many existed before affirmative action?

Look at the numbers you quoted. In a nation of ~160 million, a nation producing tens of thousands of pilots since 1940, and a nation with the GI Bill, you had all of 500 men step forward to be potential astronauts and, of those, 18 were selected.

Yes, and that was because the applicant pool was artificially closed off. Eisenhower restricted it to test pilots; there were probably not more than a few thousand of those at best, so 500 was a huge fraction of the actually relevant population. I expect that if you extend it to other groups that are self-selected for drive, you'll see quite large fractions of the relevant population applying, at least at first. Note also that the 160 million includes non-whites and females, so the true starting population should be about 65 million, not 160 million (it's a bit disingenuous to argue that because no women or minorities could sign up none would sign up, isn't it?)

Originally Posted by Don Lardo

You're beginning with a pool that essentially includes all white male college graduates and pilot and ending up with 18 men. Just when and why all the others were dropped; didn't want to go into space, NASA had too many applicants already, etc, doesn't actually matter. You've gone from a huge number to a minuscule one. There's a huge wastage rate at work here.

But the reasons why do matter. If they were all quitting because they couldn't take it or they weren't qualified enough that makes a big difference, since it would imply that a lot of qualified non-WM applicants would also do that, therefore higher wastage rates. If most applicants were rejected on consideration of not needing that many people, then that means that there would be lower wastage rates for the minority and female pool. A lot of the initial Mercury astronauts were rejected for being the wrong size (mostly too large) for the capsule, again a factor that is going to be present much less for a '70s pool.

Originally Posted by Don Lardo

The overwhelming majority of white male pilots chose not to be even considered by NASA and the overwhelming majority of minority and female pilots will make the same choice. The huge number of white male pilots produced an applicant pool of 500 men. What number is the far smaller pool of minority and female pilots going to produce? It won't be fifty, it might not even be five.

The overwhelming majority of white male pilots couldn't be considered by NASA; they weren't even asked if they wanted to. A large fraction of those who could, applied. I expect that while the prospective minority/female pool will be somewhat less enthusiastic, they also will be quite willing to apply. And even as early as 1960, 20 women were willing to give spaceflight a shot. The Soviet Union managed to dig up a half-dozen or so female cosmonauts in the early '60s, and a post-Apollo program realistically isn't going to require much more flight ability than they did.

Originally Posted by Don Lardo

Now put those applicants through the same 500:18 winnowing process that occurred historically. Let's even use you're suggestion that minorities and women will be more driven, because I believe they would be too, and up the winnowing ratio by 100% to 500:36.

An applicant pool of 50, which is nonsense in my estimation, will get you 4 minority/female astronauts. An applicant pool of 5, which is closer to a more plausible number, will get you no minority/female astronauts even though you've doubled the historical acceptance rate.

Again, 20 women were willing to give it a shot a decade earlier. Why wouldn't more try this time, especially since it would be an official NASA request, not a doctor and a couple of pilots with their own agendas asking? Not to mention that NASA would probably have relaxed requirements; Apollo astronauts did not need to fit in the same narrow range of sizes as Mercury astronauts, nor did they have to endure the same launch stresses, and the rigors of space travel were better understood, not to mention the lower overall required level of flight ability after the end of the Moon landings. All that would combine to even further decrease wastage rates. That's leaving aside the fact that only 10 out of 35 Group 8 astronauts were not white males, anyways, so you only need a few successful candidates to make an impact.

[Don Lardo]

I'll point out again that this is a numbers game and that I am discussing the early 1970s before the effects of affirmative action allowed minorities and women to begin redressing the imbalance racism and sexism had created.

I am not discussing the mid-1970s or late 1970s.

Yes, women were approached for the Mercury program. Yes, the Soviets sent women into space in the 1960s. And, yes, both those efforts were little more than publicity campaigns and not a decision to actually create a diverse astronaut pool.

Unless an administration steps in and specifically directs NASA to hire minority and women astronauts, you are not going to have minority and women astronauts any sooner than you did in the OTL.

This is a numbers game. As you yourself admit:

The overwhelming majority of white male pilots couldn't be considered by NASA; they weren't even asked if they wanted to.

If the overwhelming majority of white male pilots weren't even asked, then the overwhelming majority of minority/female pilots won't be asked either. You're throwing most of a much smaller pool of applicants and then running the much smaller remainder through a process with an extremely high drop out rate. That means you could easily end up with no one making it at all.

It's a question of numbers, statistics, and not competence.

And even as early as 1960, 20 women were willing to give spaceflight a shot.

Leaving aside the fact that they were asked by a doctor running his own "program", let's assume that all 20 enter the program. Let's also assume, as we did before, they pass at double the rate the men did, or 500:36.

Congratulations, you've now got ONE female astronaut.

Really big change, huh?