Jefferson, 1796

I'm doing research for a timeline and I wanted to see what all of you thought, what information you have and/or sources you could recomend.

The basic idea is Thomas Jefferson wins the 1796 presidential election against John Adams. Here are some questions right off.

What can Jefferson do differently to win in 1796, with a PoD no earlier then 1789?

Would John Adams accept the position of Vice President under John Adams?

Who might be in his Cabinet?

How would Foreign policy change?

How would Jefferson react to the XYZ affair, or would it not occur at all?

Would Adams run in 1800?

Would Jefferson still make the Louisiana purchase, if France still regains it from Spain?


I'm going through some material and will be coming up with more questions later. Thanks to anyone who has anything.

Would John Adams accept the position of Vice President under John Adams?

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That could be tricky

Who might be in his Cabinet?

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I can't see why Jefferson wouldn't bring in Madison as OTL, or Gallatin for that matter.

How would Foreign policy change?

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Good chance we don't get into a quasi-war with France, if for no other reason than TJ was on good relations with many French leaders...

Would Adams run in 1800?

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I'd think yes.

Would Jefferson still make the Louisiana purchase, if France still regains it from Spain?

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Maybe right from Spain? Just spitballing...

IchBinDieKaiser said:

How would Foreign policy change? How would Jefferson react to the XYZ affair, or would it not occur at all?

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Now here's an interesting one. IOTL, Jefferson dismissed the XYZ affair as a simple misunderstanding and was later shocked to learn that it was anything but. With him being in the position where he actually has to deal with the French (unlike IOTL where he just sort of raved on the sidelines), his Francophilia may cloud his judgment.

Actually, if he's too soft on the XYZ thing or proves ineffectual due to his aforementioned adoration of France, we could potentially see Congress and the population clamoring for war. Hell, John Adams was pretty stalwart on the matter and he still only narrowly managed to prevent war.

If Jefferson remains indecisive, one of two things will likely happen:

1. He'll give in to popular demand, swallow his ardor for all things French, and declare war on France. How he executes it is another matter entirely and could have dire ramifications if he goes about it halfheartedly.
   
2. He'll remain on the fence, won't ask Congress to declare war, and the Democratic-Republicans will face an absolute thrashing at the polls.
   

IchBinDieKaiser said:

Would Jefferson still make the Louisiana purchase, if France still regains it from Spain?

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I'm not entirely sure what you mean here since Jefferson did make the Louisiana Purchase IOTL. What you have to understand is that anybody would have bought Louisiana. In fact, Jefferson was the least likely fellow to do it and he did it anyways.

Interesting when the shoe is on the other foot. I can see Adams accepting the Vice Presidency for a short while, as it was at that time how the constitution was written and he had not yet become the political rival that would happen when he became president. But after eight years pervious in what as he described as a "horrible" job, I can see him resigning before the four years are up.

If he leaves office he may lose support and as it was, he was t he only Federalist President and much of the Federalist power was waning by 1800-1808 so there is a good chance we may never will see a Federalist President.

... so there is a good chance we may never will see a Federalist President.

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Aside from Washington?

Washington has gone down in history as the only president not affiliated with a political party. I will concede though that he was a "federalist" leaning president as he was very much a proponent of a strong Federal government as he was truly a "Nationalist" in an era when many still associated themselves their state first and country second.

If Jerrerson is president in 1796 and Burr is not his vp then that probally butterflies away the Burr/Jefferson rivalry. So Burr might not be as well known as IRL since he was not vp, but in a few more years he might be able to run for the presidency in 1804 or 1808.

But would Burr still be a Democrat-Republican?

For information on the elections of 1796 and 1800 I suggest you read the book:Fallen Founder the Life of Aaron Burr

A few more questions


What if Jefferson's wife Martha lived longer (1800's)?

How might an earlier Jefferson administration impact his idea of "Empire of Liberty"?

What if Jefferson supported abolitionist legislation during his presidency?

What if Jefferson supported abolitionist legislation during his presidency?

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He would not; anti-slavery legislation, maybe, but abolitionist TJ is getting ASB...

Jefferson

IchBinDieKaiser said:

What can Jefferson do differently to win in 1796, with a PoD no earlier then 1789?

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He is perceived as pro-French at a time when the French Revolution is violent....perhaps he could've mitigated that image. Furthermore, he needs to win Maryland.

IchBinDieKaiser said:

Would John Adams accept the position of Vice President under John Adams[Jefferson]?

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Yes, I believe Adams would take VP under Jefferson.

IchBinDieKaiser said:

Who might be in his Cabinet?

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You have to put Madison on that list, perhaps Burr, Clinton, he might even toss a bone to the Federalists and let somebody like Pinckney be Secy of War (?).

IchBinDieKaiser said:

How would Foreign policy change?

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The question is whether Jefferson would honor the Jay Treaty? I would think that he would because he would be unlikely to have enough votes to repudiate it.

IchBinDieKaiser said:

How would Jefferson react to the XYZ affair, or would it not occur at all?

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Jefferson is pro-French, so I don't think the XYZ Affair would occur, its far more likely that the British would get ticked if they found us flagrantly violating the Jay Treaty.

IchBinDieKaiser said:

Would Adams run in 1800?

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No, having lost in 1796, Federalist have to look to get votes in the south, they'll run Pinckney (SC), maybe Jay with Pinckney.....

IchBinDieKaiser said:

Would Jefferson still make the Louisiana purchase, if France still regains it from Spain?

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If its available, Jefferson is still buying.

IchBinDieKaiser said:

Would John Adams accept the position of Vice President under John Adams?

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Not likely to arise but I understand he was on record as saying he would resign rather than be VP under Jefferson.

This raises a point. If he does so, that leaves Jefferson with no legal successor, since until the new Congress meets there is neither a President of the Senate nor a Speaker of the House. This might trigger an alteration to the Presidential Succession Act, especially as the Feds control both houses of Congress, so that at least initially Jefferson will still be saddled with a Federalist "heir presumptive".

The other matter is that John Marshall is almost certainly never appointed Chief Justice. Any thoughts how that affects the development of the Supreme Court?