WI: Guderian captured or killed by the French?

[truth is life]

I have been reading Guderian's (and von Manstein's) memoirs lately, and one particular incident the former relates about the invasion of France stood out. Apparently, just after crossing through the Ardennes, but before capturing Sedan and crossing the Meuse, Guderian was forced to visit von Kleist's HQ for orders. To do so, he was flown in a Fiestler Storch. On returning to his corps HQ, the pilot evidently was unfamiliar with the terrain, and inadvertanly flew the plane--which was slow and unarmed--over French lines. IOTL, Guderian realized the mistake and managed to get the pilot to get to his HQ before fuel ran out or they were noticed.

WI, instead, they were forced to land behind enemy lines, or were shot down, and Guderian was captured or killed? While XIX Corp's staff attempted to discover what had happened to him, they would of necessity be distracted from actually leading the Corps. Furthermore, any replacement leader might not be as bold (or so willing to skirt the orders of his commanders. So the breakthrough at Sedan and the race to the Channel Coast, consequently cutting off Anglo-French forces in Belgium, might not even happen. The Anglo-French forces might be able to either defeat the attempted breakthrough and force the Germans back to their starting lines, or retreat in good order behind the Somme. With additional forces, the second phase of the Battle of France might not occur, trapping Germany in a prolonged attritional campaign similar to the First World War. Under this situation, I suspect Mussolini would not attack France, and Germany would be defeated much earlier than IOTL. However, this would probably be a negotiated peace, not the unconditional surrender of OTL.

[ComradeTovarich]

Originally Posted by truth is life

I have been reading Guderian's (and von Manstein's) memoirs lately, and one particular incident the former relates about the invasion of France stood out. Apparently, just after crossing through the Ardennes, but before capturing Sedan and crossing the Meuse, Guderian was forced to visit von Kleist's HQ for orders. To do so, he was flown in a Fiestler Storch. On returning to his corps HQ, the pilot evidently was unfamiliar with the terrain, and inadvertanly flew the plane--which was slow and unarmed--over French lines. IOTL, Guderian realized the mistake and managed to get the pilot to get to his HQ before fuel ran out or they were noticed.

WI, instead, they were forced to land behind enemy lines, or were shot down, and Guderian was captured or killed? While XIX Corp's staff attempted to discover what had happened to him, they would of necessity be distracted from actually leading the Corps. Furthermore, any replacement leader might not be as bold (or so willing to skirt the orders of his commanders. So the breakthrough at Sedan and the race to the Channel Coast, consequently cutting off Anglo-French forces in Belgium, might not even happen. The Anglo-French forces might be able to either defeat the attempted breakthrough and force the Germans back to their starting lines, or retreat in good order behind the Somme. With additional forces, the second phase of the Battle of France might not occur, trapping Germany in a prolonged attritional campaign similar to the First World War. Under this situation, I suspect Mussolini would not attack France, and Germany would be defeated much earlier than IOTL. However, this would probably be a negotiated peace, not the unconditional surrender of OTL.

The art of Blitzkrieg still lives on in Guderian's protege, Rommel, and other commanders. Expect lots of nasty reprisals if Guderian winds up dead. If he was captured instead, then someone in the German high command would deploy Fallschirmjagers backed with air support to try and rescue him once they determine his location.

[BlairWitch749]

Guderian wasn't a big celebrity at that point... it depends how he is handled as a prisoner... if the French have him, he gets returned after the armistace and things move along relatively OTL... if the British have him or he gets transferred to their custody, his war is over and he enjoys the rest of the war in Bowmanville this would have the same effect as him being killed

short term effects: Command of his corps reverts to his most senior division commander (this scenario was allready tested when he "resigned" after his pissing match with Kleist) which would be Ferdinand Kirchener (forgive the spelling I don't have it with me) of the 1st Panzer Division. Kirchener had just as much if not more experience in commanding armored formations as Guderian, he was just as aggressive and dynamic so you would likely see the drive to the channel continue under his guidance. Hermann Balck at that point would be promoted to command the 1st Panzer Division (he was commanding one of its rifle regiments) and he was argueably the best combat commander Germany had in the war... he would distinguish the hell out of himself (he did during the campaign anyway)

medium term effects: Balck would get just as many newspaper headlines if not more than Rommel or Guderian and could end up being assigned to the Africa Corps (since he would be more acceptable to the General staff and would have just as much propaganda notoriety)... command of Panzer Group 2 would be interesting... Kirchener of course would be a possibility, you might also see Reinhardt be promoted or Manstein (he might be the long shot in that scenario) I would put my money on Reinhardt... not much different than otl except he wouldn't complain about wanting to go to Moscow (which wasn't proper military strategy anyway)

long term: with Guderian gone or dead, he doesn't become chief of the armored troops or chief of staff... this roll would then need to be filled (Rommel or Balck would be most likely IMO)... Armored production continues otl... the big difference might be in Normandy because Balck, if chief of staff would support Rundstedt/Schweppenburg's back hand blow approach and not bother with building the atlantic wall and you would get kursk size battles in central France