AH Challenge: The Weimar Republic Survives TL

[Glen]

Well, Oth, one thing that occurs to me is that there is likely to be a lot less emphasis on anti-Semitism in Brazil, possibly elsewhere. There is no real reason for them to promulgate that without Hitler on the scene.

German economic ties are likely to be as strong, though. Brazil won't be forced to choose between Germany and the US in this timeline.

[Othniel]

Would that pull away from the Estado Novo and not have the dictatorship form possibly?

I'd say that anti-semtitism would not be emphasised but it would still be there, and possibly grow into something nasty come a later time period and some place else.

[Glen]

Quote:
The fate of the Spanish Civil War without German support.

Originally Posted by p99

In our timeline the italians send at least close to 100,000 IIRC. Also some American companies and british companies supported the nationalist side{for example Vickers}. It's a possibility the nationalist win this thing. they were better led and received full support of Italy, while I don't see a reason for the French to act different that in OTL. I say the Nationalist win by October 1939. A fascist Spain

Quote:
Europe in the early 1940s with a growing cooperation between Germany and Britain, Czechoslovakia in their camp and the Baltics and Finland as well probably, a paranoid landlocked Poland wedged between the German Republic and the Soviets, Italy still the 'king' of the Fascist States, and France still changing governments like most people change underwear.

Originally Posted by p99

wow! Peace on Europe? I don't see anyone giving the Yugoslavians any assurances. IMO the only outlet for expansion for the fascists hordes. I'm alos don't see the democracies going to war for the Yugoslavian Kingdom.Partition of the Kingdom between Italy, Hungary and Bulgaria with a couple of puppet nations on the remains, perhaps? After the Yugoslavian affair the gap between the fascists and the democracies will grow.


I agree with Poland. They will turn into a nation ruled by paranoids. They will be truly a police state.

Quote:
The fate of the Japanese in the late 1930s/1940s. Will it be war with the Soviets, the US and allies, or none of the above?

Originally Posted by p99

I say the Soviets. The Soviets pretty much are blocked to do anything on Europe IMO.

Quote:
The evolution of the Stalin's Soviet Union in general. What will they be up to in the 1940s?

Originally Posted by p99

I say Stalin could try something versus Poland but he could be rebuffed by the little Entente so his best chance is on the Far East. The results IMO will be the same than the ones in the Empire of Japan TL, expulsion of Japanese forces from mainland Asia. Maybe a communist China earlier than in OTL?

Thanks for the input, p99. I'm starting to lean away from a Republican victory in Spain now based on your and FTB's comments about the Italians; seems that the Germans weren't the deciding factor. This would actually simplify things in some ways.

And with both you and Wendell favoring a second Russo-Japanese war, that is looking more and more the way to go. And it would be likely to benefit the German Republic by distracting the Soviets.

I'm glad you agree about Poland.

Yeah, Yugoslavia looks prime to be divided, and Romania to lose chunks, unless the Germans ally with them. The Romanians might go into the 'little entente'. The Yugoslavs actually have links to both the British and the Germans after the Austrian Anschluss are now on their border, which might make them less than thrilled to have Italy and Hungary et al carve it up. But I'm not certain there. Either Germany and possibly Great Britain try to intervene (maybe a guarantee of Yugoslav borders after the Italians take Albania, ala the guarantees to Poland after the Czechs went down to Germany, or try yet another 'Munich Conference' style negotiation with territorial concessions to Italy, Hungary, and Bulgaria but Yugoslavia remains), or they acquiesce to the Fascist feeding frenzy.

Interestingly, King Alexander I is probably still King of Yugoslavia, since it is unlikely he goes to Marseilles in 1934, since that was for an 'anti-Hitler' meeting.

[perdedor99]

The dictatorships of South America IOTL used the Italian fascist version as their model and this model has not been discredited yet. They have been victorius in Ethiopia, Albania, maybe Spain and Yugoslavia. Mussolini fits the mold of leadership the latin americans liked at the time. Brazil IMO will follow his style as the model of the Estado Novo and I also agree that with no reason for stopping relations with Germany, the economic power of Germany in Brazil could be very large.

[Glen]

Originally Posted by Othniel

Would that pull away from the Estado Novo and not have the dictatorship form possibly?

Probably still a dictatorship of some sort.

I'd say that anti-semtitism would not be emphasised but it would still be there, and possibly grow into something nasty come a later time period and some place else.

Likely it will be less than OTL 1930s-1940s, but more post mid 1940s. Don't know that there would be any reason to have something as nasty as the Nazi anti-semitism develop later.

[Glen]

Originally Posted by FTB

Well the Condor legion was about a Division on Land and 2 Wings in the Air so, not that much. Though better equitment than the Italians
And With the Coup, their is no chance that they could kill everyone, those who escape will form the new Goverment and they will recive support of France, Britian, the US, and possibly Weimar? The Stalinists will only have the Soviets to back them, and the Western Powers will do anything to stop Stalinism in the West, it might even start a war.

I think I'm just going to have Franco win in this timeline much as the Nationalists did in OTL. Maybe a little later due to the lessened support, but overall the same.

[perdedor99]

Yeah, Yugoslavia looks prime to be divided, and Romania to lose chunks, unless the Germans ally with them. The Romanians might go into the 'little entente'. The Yugoslavs actually have links to both the British and the Germans after the Austrian Anschluss are now on their border, which might make them less than thrilled to have Italy and Hungary et al carve it up. But I'm not certain there. Either Germany and possibly Great Britain try to intervene (maybe a guarantee of Yugoslav borders after the Italians take Albania, ala the guarantees to Poland after the Czechs went down to Germany, or try yet another 'Munich Conference' style negotiation with territorial concessions to Italy, Hungary, and Bulgaria but Yugoslavia remains), or they acquiesce to the Fascist feeding frenzy.

I forgot Germany nows have a border with Yugoslavia. Still I don't see the democracies going to war for Yugoslavia, but the Munich Conference thing could be possible, with Italy and their cronies getting what they want.

this could happen even more if the Soviets force the Romanians to "give up" some small border areas before hand, like Moldavia. It depends who the democracies see more as a threat, the commies or the fascists.

[Glen]

Originally Posted by perdedor99

The dictatorships of South America IOTL used the Italian fascist version as their model and this model has not been discredited yet. They have been victorius in Ethiopia, Albania, maybe Spain and Yugoslavia. Mussolini fits the mold of leadership the latin americans liked at the time. Brazil IMO will follow his style as the model of the Estado Novo and I also agree that with no reason for stopping relations with Germany, the economic power of Germany in Brazil could be very large.

Right. Sounds like mostly the same sort of history will unfold in South America, with just less emphasis on anti-semitism. But continued economic links between Germany and Brazil past the mid forties...

[Othniel]

1942 Jan, Chile and Argentina were the only two Latin American countries that did not comply at once with the Rio de Janeiro Conference recommendation to those countries who had not already done so to sever diplomatic and commercial relations with the Axis powers, Germany, Italy and Japan. Chile eventually broke Axis relations in January 1943 and Argentina complied in January 1944. The conference of Western Hemisphere foreign ministers also called for suppression of pro-Axis activity in the Americas, establishment of an Inter-American defense board and economic cooperation within the hemisphere.
(HNQ, 9/24/00)

Since there is no Rio de Janerio Conference in this timeline I suppose that Western Hemisphere powers would not be as economically tied together as they were by the second world war.

[Glen]

Originally Posted by perdedor99

I forgot Germany nows have a border with Yugoslavia. Still I don't see the democracies going to war for Yugoslavia, but the Munich Conference thing could be possible, with Italy and their cronies getting what they want.

Right. But this time, instead of France and the UK getting Germany to agree, it will be the UK and Germany. A real sign of the changing times, eh?

this could happen even more if the Soviets force the Romanians to "give up" some small border areas before hand, like Moldavia. It depends who the democracies see more as a threat, the commies or the fascists.

This really is a matter of timing. If the Romanians are made part of the 'little entente' early on, they probably stay intact. If not, they might not just lose territory to the Soviets, but to Hungary and Bulgaria before things are done. In 1938/9, it looked like Hungary was moving towards a war with Romania over Transylvania until Hitler forced Romania to cede the territory without a fight.

[perdedor99]

Originally Posted by Othniel

Since there is no Rio de Janerio Conference in this timeline I suppose that Western Hemisphere powers would not be as economically tied together as they were by the second world war.

i agree. And fascists has not been discredited so we can see them lasting longer than IOTL, Peron allthe way to the 1960's?

[Glen]

Originally Posted by Othniel

Since there is no Rio de Janerio Conference in this timeline I suppose that Western Hemisphere powers would not be as economically tied together as they were by the second world war.

Agreed this is likely to be a bit different.

[Glen]

Originally Posted by perdedor99

i agree. And fascists has not been discredited so we can see them lasting longer than IOTL, Peron allthe way to the 1960's?

That is true.

[perdedor99]

This really is a matter of timing. If the Romanians are made part of the 'little entente' early on, they probably stay intact. If not, they might not just lose territory to the Soviets, but to Hungary and Bulgaria before things are done. In 1938/9, it looked like Hungary was moving towards a war with Romania over Transylvania until Hitler forced Romania to cede the territory without a fight.

The Romanian army of 1939 was not a push over. It was bigger and better trained than OTL Hungarian and Bulgarian armies. IIRC in TL the Hungarian's military was also limited by treaty. They could try but the surprise will be for them. A very decent armored force, even with R-35 tanks while the best the Hungarians could get is the crappy italian tankettes. Is not going to be easy. IMO the only ones that can force the Rumanians to give up territory without a fight is the Soviets

[Othniel]

Originally Posted by perdedor99

i agree. And fascists has not been discredited so we can see them lasting longer than IOTL, Peron allthe way to the 1960's?

Peron, maybe he'll get assinated and the second conservative era will still be brought in....

[Glen]

Originally Posted by perdedor99

The Romanian army of 1939 was not a push over. It was bigger and better trained than OTL Hungarian and Bulgarian armies. IIRC in TL the Hungarian's military was also limited by treaty. They could try but the surprise will be for them. A very decent armored force, even with R-35 tanks while the best the Hungarians could get is the crappy italian tankettes. Is not going to be easy. IMO the only ones that can force the Rumanians to give up territory without a fight is the Soviets

Interesting. The big problem is that Romania was a basket case politically by this time OTL, and I don't know that it would be very much better in this ATL.

I think if the Hungarians and Bulgarians attack, maybe with heavy Italian backing, the Soviets make an opportunistic grab for Bessarabia, with Romania pretty much ceding it and making a quick peace with the Soviets so they can concentrate on dealing with the Hungarians and Bulgarians. Maybe if it is just Romanians, Hungarians, and Bulgarians, the war will not attract the direct intervention of the big boys after the Soviets take their bite. I see the 'little entente' funneling aid to the Romanians through the Czech Border. So maybe the Romanians lose Bessarabia, but hold onto the rest, giving Italy a bit of a black eye by proxy? Afterward, I can see Romania definitely going into the Anglo-German camp, which is where Wendell thought they'd go anyway (though through economic bribery IIRC).

Again, the question is, would Romania go into the Anglo-German camp before being attacked, possibly heading off attack (though maybe not, this is the age of appeasement, after all), or would they do so after their ordeal?

Maybe we should just say after, that way we don't have to yet another Munich Conference.

[Glen]

Originally Posted by Othniel

Peron, maybe he'll get assinated and the second conservative era will still be brought in....

Was he assassinated in OTL? I can't recall off hand...

[perdedor99]

Originally Posted by Glen Finney

Was he assassinated in OTL? I can't recall off hand...

no. he was forced out of power in 1952 or 1954, I can't recall the correct date but them achieved power again in 1974 IIRC and died in office.

[perdedor99]

Originally Posted by Glen Finney

Interesting. The big problem is that Romania was a basket case politically by this time OTL, and I don't know that it would be very much better in this ATL.

I think if the Hungarians and Bulgarians attack, maybe with heavy Italian backing, the Soviets make an opportunistic grab for Bessarabia, with Romania pretty much ceding it and making a quick peace with the Soviets so they can concentrate on dealing with the Hungarians and Bulgarians. Maybe if it is just Romanians, Hungarians, and Bulgarians, the war will not attract the direct intervention of the big boys after the Soviets take their bite. I see the 'little entente' funneling aid to the Romanians through the Czech Border. So maybe the Romanians lose Bessarabia, but hold onto the rest, giving Italy a bit of a black eye by proxy? Afterward, I can see Romania definitely going into the Anglo-German camp, which is where Wendell thought they'd go anyway (though through economic bribery IIRC).

Again, the question is, would Romania go into the Anglo-German camp before being attacked, possibly heading off attack (though maybe not, this is the age of appeasement, after all), or would they do so after their ordeal?

Maybe we should just say after, that way we don't have to yet another Munich Conference.

it was a basket case in OTL due to the dealings of the Germans. With a saner Germany IMO they will be more stable. But in a war like this I agree with your analysis. The Soviets will gain some land, the Hungarians and Bulgarians get a bloody nose and them they join the Anglo-German alliance.

[Glen]

Originally Posted by DuQuense

?Does Japan go into China?

Most definitely. The events in Europe wouldn't change this.

?Does the US organize to Embargo against Japan?

If Roosevelt serves a third term, yes. If a Republican is in office, maybe not. The lack of Hitler in Germany may make it less likely in this timeline for FDR to seek or to win a third term against precedent.

without the Menace of Hitler's Germany, ?Do GB and Holland go along?

With who? Probably they try to stay out of it if possible.

If not The Russo Japanese war will be very interesting.

It may very well be, yes. Want to think up a few events with dates for such a war?

Japan is Allied with Poland against the Commies.

Did that happen OTL, or just almost happened? I can't recall. That certainly would be interesting, but would the Poles attack the Soviets for Japan? Especially given their fear of a stab in the back from Germany (actually not too likely in this timeline unless they are about to fall to the Soviets, in which case Germany is going to move East to establish a 'protective buffer' between them and the Soviets, I would think).