What would 19th C Russia's wet-dream scenario in the Balkans look like?

Russian historical narratives of the 19th century (and indeed the late 18th century) tend to take the form of 'we were just on the verge of overthrowing the corrupt and failing evil Turk and liberating the Christians to avenge Byzantium, and we would have got away with it too if it hadn't been for those meddling French (and British, sometimes)'.

Now obviously that's not the whole story. But it got me thinking. What if Tsarist Russia ever did get the chance to go all-out against the Ottomans without any other great powers being able to intervene?

Here's a half-arsed scenario to suggest how this could happen:

It's the 1860s. America is in the middle of a civil war (not necessarily the exact OTL one, but similar) and something like the classic Trent Affair POD has happened - Britain has become embroiled in the war, with troops going to defend Canada and the Royal Navy engaging the USN. Fenian terrorism at home, perhaps American-backed, focuses public anger and paranoia on the conflict. At the same time, Austria-Hungary has collapsed into revolution after the assassination of the Emperor by a Hungarian nationalist. An ambitious Prussia mobilises its army to 'stabilise the situation' in Austria, but it's obvious to everyone that their real goal is to split up the Hapsburg empire and subsume its German-speaking parts into a new, Prussian-dominated German Confederation. France, realising this, demands Prussian withdrawal and when this fails to happen, declares war on Prussia. Italy also becomes involved as it did in OTL with the Austro-Prussian wars.

Not brilliant but you get the idea - the point is that all the western powers have other concerns and can't really do more than send strongly worded letters to St Petersburg if Russia starts up another war with the Ottomans.

The Ottoman Empire, of course, is not the tottering zombie that the Russians (and everyone else) painted it as, but it is still pretty weak, stuck in the middle of the tanzimat reforms and still recovering from the Crimean War. We'll assume Persia doesn't become involved on either side for simplicity's sake.

So, here is the question: the Russians have a clear run at the Ottoman Empire. What happens? And what will Europe look like afterwards?

Constantinople.

Jerusalem.

Well Romanian, Bulgarian, Pontic, and Armenian puppets along the Black sea coast. Whether or not the russian directly annex the city of the worlds desire is a tricky question. There was always that third Rome idea floating around in the Imperial Court and it's possible the Ruskies will establish a greek Byzantine Empire. However it gets sticky if the conquest is after the greek independence.

If it is after you will have to rival greek states, as the greek king is not going to be too keen on submitting to a Romanov Emperor in contantinople. Probably a single slavic state under russian domination in Yugoslavia.

Russia had plenty of problems at home, the reforms of eliminating serfdom, instituting a new judicial system, and the introduction of capitalism. Not to mention though the Pan-Slavists did have large support, there were also liberals and socialists that were a force to be reckoned with. I think if at any point the Slavic unification wars go badly and they turn to be more expensive than they would like; the Liberals might gain more of a voice.


And though it is a wikipedia article http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caucasian_War , there is the obvious fact that the Chenyans and other wild mountain men did face down the almost the full effort of the Russian army.

Sa'id Mohammed said:

Russian control of Constantinople with puppet states set up all over the Balkans. And millions of Muslims dead. Not exactly a pretty picture.

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Was it better when there was Turkish control of Constantinople with puppet states or direct annexations all over the Balkans? And million....well, not million, thousands, give you that, of Christians dead?

DusanUros said:

Was it better when there was Turkish control of Constantinople with puppet states or direct annexations all over the Balkans? And million....well, not million, thousands, give you that, of Christians dead?

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The christian community in the balkans lasted for centuries after the Ottoman conquest. The muslim communities were lucky to last for a decade when the Christians conquered the land

DusanUros said:

Was it better when there was Turkish control of Constantinople with puppet states or direct annexations all over the Balkans? And million....well, not million, thousands, give you that, of Christians dead?

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I'm somewhat biased for Christians in time-lines but I have to disagree with you. The Turks did not intentionally attempt to murder the Christian population; they preferred to keep them Christian in order to keep tax revenues rolling in. Plus they had an incredible degree of autonomy.

Germaniac said:

Whether or not the russian directly annex the city of the worlds desire is a tricky question. There was always that third Rome idea floating around in the Imperial Court and it's possible the Ruskies will establish a greek Byzantine Empire. However it gets sticky if the conquest is after the greek independence.

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Would Russian generals be willing to hand Tsargrad to the Greeks? At most, I'd wager that they would've provided a mere token force, and Russian nationalists and Pan-Slavists both would've thus been up in arms at the prospect of ceding their hand-earned victory to Athens.

Probably a single slavic state under russian domination in Yugoslavia.

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The best an inflated Serbia could probably get is Bosnia, Macedonia, and maybe bits of Albania. Croatia and Slovenia are part of Austria-Hungary, which isn't involved in this scenario. Bulgaria as part of some pan-Balkan Yugoslav movement isn't likely in the least-- even the most inflated depictions of Tsar Dusan's Serbian Empire don't give it control over Bulgaria, and some people at the time thought the Bulgars had more in common with Finns than Serbs besides.

Mind you, Russia has its own problems at this time. Alexander II is trying to introduce fair reform to the empire while at the same time stomping out the 1863/4 January Uprising and such liberal separatist movements, and economic and military reforms are upsetting both the lower classes and nobility in different ways. How much can Russia swallow directly or indirectly without spurring on more internal turmoil? How much will the problems that Russia is currently facing handicap its fighting capabilities?

Well, gaining control of Istanbul is going to be difficult, I mean it's essentially the Heart of the Empire in many ways.

The end result would probably be Russia directly annexing Istanbul, though that would likely be the only Ottoman territory it could/would get for itself.

Their might be a puppet Armenian state set up between Ottoman Anatolia and Russian Caucuses, likely out of territory from both Empires to act as a buffer.

In Europe a Russian-allied Serbia would probably get Bosnia, but I think that's about it.

A newly independent Bulgaria, and, for awhile, Russian puppet, would get OTL Bulgaria and Thracia (excluding Russian Constantinople).

Romania is one I'm not sure about, given they were already independent, they would'nt be a Russian Puppet and may well indeed demand Bessarabia in return for aiding Russia.
They'd likely take Ottoman Dobruja themselves as well.

Macedonia I'm not sure of, though over all it would be split between Bulgaria and Greece.

Albania is another one I'm unsure of, it could'nt just be annexed to Serbia, or Greece, or both, I suppose some small border areas would go to both while Albania itself would become independent, though it would likely become neutral.

Sa'id Mohammed said:

I'm somewhat biased for Christians in time-lines but I have to disagree with you. The Turks did not intentionally attempt to murder the Christian population; they preferred to keep them Christian in order to keep tax revenues rolling in. Plus they had an incredible degree of autonomy.

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Where exactly was that? Or you forget the Janissary tradition? Or the forced conversions in Bulgaria and Bosnia? Of course they preferred to keep them christian, they werent THAT stupid. Had they tried en-masse conversion the Turkish rule wouldnt last a decade, but the fact that in one way or another they oppressed the christians in their land is real. So i suppose would only be fair for Russia to treat the subjugated Muslims in the same way.

DusanUros said:

Where exactly was that?

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Pretty much everywhere. The Orthodox Church had more power after Ottoman conquest that before.

Or you forget the Janissary tradition?

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The tradition to convert non-Muslims then put them in government office? It was so repressive that you got Christian families trying to put their children in the program so that they could have a relative running the empire.

Or the forced conversions in Bulgaria and Bosnia?

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Okay. Cite? When did that take place? Overall Ottoman policy was totally against such things - unless you count taxing Christians as forced conversion. Most Muslims in the Balkans were immigrants or entirely willing converts. Admittedly the law forbade converting the other way, not that it never happened.

Of course they preferred to keep them christian, they werent THAT stupid.

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Granted. Though I think the Koran had as much to do with the decision as practicality, at least in starting the policy. Until the Ottomans revivified the Orthodox church there was a great deal of conversion to Islam going on in the Balkans. Having an organized church essentially stopped that. Come down to it, some of the support and protections the Ottomans gave Christians were quite detrimental to the state's survival.

Had they tried en-masse conversion the Turkish rule wouldnt last a decade, but the fact that in one way or another they oppressed the christians in their land is real.

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Meh. What kind of empire doesn't oppress someone? The fact remains that compared to the ethnic cleanse-fest of Russia, the heinous atrocities committed by the Balkan states on gaining freedom, or even compared to colonial empires that outlived it, the Porte was a liberal paradise.

So i suppose would only be fair for Russia to treat the subjugated Muslims in the same way.

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It wouldn't be a problem if they treated them the same way.

They wouldn't. Look at the Crimea, Don Basin, Caspian Delta, and Northern Caucasus/Circassia. Every one of those regions went from entirely Muslim to almost entirely Slavic shortly after Russian conquest. The populations were ethnically cleansed if not exterminated outright.

Look at Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, and Greece. All of them - but especially Bulgaria - were composed of provinces with Muslim pluralities, large minorities, or majorities when they gained independence from Turkey. All of them quickly became almost totally Christian - primarily by ethnic cleansing and progrom. The Muslim communities that survived in the Balkans were those that existed in their own large pockets of Muslim majority (Albania, Kosovo) and those that switched directly from Ottoman to Austrian rule (Bosnia, Herzegovina).

Expect the same thing you see in OTL. Russia annexes everything it realistically can, which isn't that much. Inside their territory, areas with Christian populations or where Russians want to settle are encouraged to drive out non-Christians. Undesirable and totally Muslim areas are isolated and left alone. In Russian-dominated states throughout the Balkans, the Muslim population flees or is purged.

In fairness, if its choosing Russia or Bulgaria, Russia would actually be much better.

Not necessarily. Heavily settled Muslim regions that lacked clear value for Russian settlers were often merely knocked around.

See Chechnya, Dagestan, Tartarstan (in the middle of European Russia), and Central Asia.

DusanUros said:

Where exactly was that? Or you forget the Janissary tradition? Or the forced conversions in Bulgaria and Bosnia? Of course they preferred to keep them christian, they werent THAT stupid. Had they tried en-masse conversion the Turkish rule wouldnt last a decade, but the fact that in one way or another they oppressed the christians in their land is real. So i suppose would only be fair for Russia to treat the subjugated Muslims in the same way.

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Is any of this Muslims bad, Christians badder necessary to the OP?

Admiral Matt said:

Pretty much everywhere. The Orthodox Church had more power after Ottoman conquest that before.

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Seriously? Again.... SERIOUSLY????

Admiral Matt said:

The tradition to convert non-Muslims then put them in government office? It was so repressive that you got Christian families trying to put their children in the program so that they could have a relative running the empire.

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Riiiiiiiiiiiight. Dont force him with a blade, make it so he doesnt have another choice? Besides the fact that REALLY no christian mother wanted her child to be taken to be a muslim fanatic. I dont know what they teach you, but if what you say was true, why the Balkans arent fully muslim? Hmmm? Why? I tell you why, because it was forced removal.

Admiral Matt said:

Okay. Cite? When did that take place? Overall Ottoman policy was totally against such things - unless you count taxing Christians as forced conversion. Most Muslims in the Balkans were immigrants or entirely willing converts. Admittedly the law forbade converting the other way, not that it never happened.

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Yeah i suppose the majority of converts were heretics either way. I think i might just let that pass, since it makes sense.

Admiral Matt said:

Granted. Though I think the Koran had as much to do with the decision as practicality, at least in starting the policy. Until the Ottomans revivified the Orthodox church there was a great deal of conversion to Islam going on in the Balkans. Having an organized church essentially stopped that. Come down to it, some of the support and protections the Ottomans gave Christians were quite detrimental to the state's survival.

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Obviously..... imagine what would happen if they didnt. I said it myself. They were smarter than they appeared to be.

Admiral Matt said:

Meh. What kind of empire doesn't oppress someone? The fact remains that compared to the ethnic cleanse-fest of Russia, the heinous atrocities committed by the Balkan states on gaining freedom, or even compared to colonial empires that outlived it, the Porte was a liberal paradise.

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Well i dont care if i am the oppression.... i just dont wanna be the oppressed.

Admiral Matt said:

They wouldn't. Look at the Crimea, Don Basin, Caspian Delta, and Northern Caucasus/Circassia. Every one of those regions went from entirely Muslim to almost entirely Slavic shortly after Russian conquest. The populations were ethnically cleansed if not exterminated outright.

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Again, where is the problem? After all "what kind of empire doesnt oppress someone?"

Admiral Matt said:

Look at Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, and Greece. All of them - but especially Bulgaria - were composed of provinces with Muslim pluralities, large minorities, or majorities when they gained independence from Turkey. All of them quickly became almost totally Christian - primarily by ethnic cleansing and progrom. The Muslim communities that survived in the Balkans were those that existed in their own large pockets of Muslim majority (Albania, Kosovo) and those that switched directly from Ottoman to Austrian rule (Bosnia, Herzegovina).

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Again again..... so what?

Admiral Matt said:

Expect the same thing you see in OTL. Russia annexes everything it realistically can, which isn't that much. Inside their territory, areas with Christian populations or where Russians want to settle are encouraged to drive out non-Christians. Undesirable and totally Muslim areas are isolated and left alone. In Russian-dominated states throughout the Balkans, the Muslim population flees or is purged.

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Sounds like Russia.

I'm not an expert on the Ottomans or the Balkans, but...

Flamewar incoming!

Thande, that is really very interesting. However, I must wonder what happens to the Prussians-are they defeated this time? And what effect would a weaker Prussia have on the Russian ambitions in the area, if Prussia is defeated?

Can we all please put the rabid nationalist on ignore instead of feeding his puerile blithering? I've reported him for

Ridiculously Childish said:

Well i dont care if i am the oppression.... i just dont wanna be the oppressed.

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so he should be dealt with soon. Let's get back to the point and look at what actually happens with the TL.

Flocculencio said:

Let's get back to the point and look at what actually happens with the TL.

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Thank you sir.

To my mind the major question is whether the Russians attempt to directly annex Constantinople and perhaps the whole of the Balkans - I have heard they had rather extraordinary plans to even move their capital there if they ever too the city - or whether they would set up a puppet reborn Byzantium, or perhaps several separate Slavic and/or Orthdox puppet states across the whole of the Balkans.

Thande said:

Thank you sir.

To my mind the major question is whether the Russians attempt to directly annex Constantinople and perhaps the whole of the Balkans - I have heard they had rather extraordinary plans to even move their capital there if they ever too the city - or whether they would set up a puppet reborn Byzantium, or perhaps several separate Slavic and/or Orthdox puppet states across the whole of the Balkans.

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I'm wondering how far actually annexing the Balkans is practical, though. If the Powers are all involved with their own business then Russia going to war with the Ottomans unimpeded is one thing. However, Russia directly annexing the Balkans, and especially Constantinople makes it a direct threat to the British route to India. If Russia takes Constantinople, I think it sets up an inevitable conflict with Britain.