AHC: Japanese Response that avoids Lost Decade

What I'd like to know is if it's possible, with a PoD no earlier than PM Kaifu's resignation, for Japan to avoid the Lost Decade? What steps the country otherwise have taken this late to do so?

Further, if they succeed, what would be the implications for Japan's position in the world, the global economy, and such?
 
Not changing situation with the personal post office accounts would've avoided most of the trouble, probably delaying the collapse of the Bubble until the 1997 Asian Crisis.

If that happened, the Crash of 1997 would be much bigger, and easily turn the Asian Crisis into a global financial crisis of nightmare proportions with huge political repercussions worldwide.

I'll look for my notes on this and get back to you in a couple of hours; it's a scenario I've studied extensively.
 
Okay, I'm back :)

I've seen a lot of Japanese documentaries on the cause of the bubble bursting, the majority opinion of Japanese experts points at the government's change in policy to start charging tax on the post office accounts as the trigger of the crisis which followed. Before then, most Japanese (especially the elderly) preferred the security of the personal savings accounts which they had with the post office. The sums involved were huge, and these post office accounts were much like that of a bank - but exempt that taxation. Quite probably a lot of shady money was kept in these accounts too. At the time, the post office was completely a government entity. Financial corporations saw this a monopoly, and there was pressure to remove the immunity that the post office personal savings accounts had.

Everything else that the crisis is known for; the banks with their ridiculously low interest rates, the easy credit, most of these were minor by comparison. Those accounts at the post office had enormous amounts of money. Nearly all Japanese had their savings in those accounts.

I knew insiders in the Japanese finance ministry back in the late 1980s, and everyone knew the Bubble was getting too big. The real gross national debt from all the lending to other nations, the buying of influence, and the huge amount of consumption was already larger than the entire economy...but the real figures were well hidden in the paperwork (they still are). Japan was very good at hiding their debts, although there were suspicions which couldn't be checked by outsiders.

As soon as the decision was made to remove the tax exemption from the post office accounts, millions of people pulled out their money - and not trusting the banks either - hid it under their beds, etc... (often literally). It took a few months before the effects kicked in, but then the real estate prices started to crash, and the Nikkei Index went down, then the government twiddled their thumbs and worsened the situation with easy credit.

Anyway, the POD you'd need is around 1989 (if my memory serves me). The decision to NOT to have taxes on the post office accounts. That avoids the Bubble bursting for a little longer, and they can keep delaying that crash with similar tricks as what the USA has been doing since 1997. I'm sure that they could've kept going until 1997, because in that year all the economic cycles dip (very predictably, and a lot of Western think-tanks knew this way ahead of time).

By the way, an interesting film to check out is;
"Bubble Fiction Boom or Bust!" - it's a funny bit of entertainment that could give you some ideas.
 
So does that mean that there's nothing the Japanese could have done once the bubble had already bursted? Maybe if a more stable government came to power in 1993?

By the way, an interesting film to check out is;
"Bubble Fiction Boom or Bust!" - it's a funny bit of entertainment that could give you some ideas.

Ran across a description earlier in the googling, looks interesting...
 
The LDP is inclined towards "business as usual" in their timeless corporatist manner, which only exarcerbates the problem. while any non-LDP government implodes rather quickly, as we're seeing right now.
 
So does that mean that there's nothing the Japanese could have done once the bubble had already bursted?

The LDP is inclined towards "business as usual" in their timeless corporatist manner, which only exarcerbates the problem. while any non-LDP government implodes rather quickly, as we're seeing right now.

That sounds like a "yes"... oh, well :(
 
Further, if they succeed, what would be the implications for Japan's position in the world, the global economy, and such?

This is where prediction gets misty.... ;)

A possible timeline

1989 The Japanese government under the ruling LDP decide not to tax the post office personal savings accounts as too many voters would be upset, and some economists mention the possibility of huge sums of money being moved out of the accounts would be a BAD THING. As a result, the economy continues grow, the bubble gets higher, and Gerald Celente stops going on about the USA's debts and starts worrying a lot more about the Japanese Super-Tsunami that's bound to hit eventually.

1996 Japan's economy (on paper) has become easily the wealthiest in the world, far surpassing the USA. Japanese corporations dominate in Asia-Pacific region, are hugely influential in the world markets, and in the public media. Japanese R&D has taken technological advantages years ahead of their competitors; increasing their common 2-year lead to a 5-year lead in many fields. There is abundant government funding for biotechnology and "blue sky" projects such as Cold Fusion, human genetic modification, new fabrics, mechanical engineering. Japanese corporations are allowed to research and take risks with less legal restrictions as long as it supposedly serves the "public good".

The Japanese gangsters (yakuza) become dominant on the USA's West Coast, tied into American corporations as they present a legitimate business face. Corruption is everywhere, but with the enormous amounts of money changing hands it's easily able to avoid most legal investigation.

The richest man in the world is Japanese, and he has hundreds of billions of dollars (at least).

USA government politics is distorted by Japanese finance, elections and the legal system begin to suffer. Japan is convinced to fund the USA military in various adventures, to such an extent that they overshadow Israel for the charges of influence peddling.

1997 The Crash hits with the Asian Crisis, within months leading to the sort of disaster OTL had in 2008-2009. Only worse. Japanese suicide in the tens of thousands. South East Asian nations go into default. Japanese money and corporate influence is tied to the world economy to such an extent that bankruptcies of states become commonplace. Much of South East Asia are overwhelmed. Unrest rapidly turns into revolts and civil wars. Xenophobia is rampant as foreigners are blamed, and the globalisation of manufacturing, banking, and the massive fraud on a global scale causes the general public in many nations to rebel. Japan's economy is ruined, the LDP are discredited but struggle on with the same stopgap half-measures that they did in OTL. Over the previous several years, most of Japanese manufacturing has been moved to 3rd world nations, so employment plummets and high-flying executives try to get jobs as taxi drivers - or kill themselves.

From 1998 onwards, it's a lot like the doom and gloom predictions we're getting now, but probably a lot worse. Gerald Celente can start shouting "I told you so!"

In Japan, the LDP gets kicked out of power earlier, and the JDP get swept into power with a landslide election result. With Ozawa in charge (oh what fun!). They'd have the mandate to go further, probably destroying the Japanese economy much faster - but getting rid of the rot would be beneficial in the long-run. They may win a second term, and rule for 8 years (unlikely in OTL).
 
So does that mean that there's nothing the Japanese could have done once the bubble had already bursted? Maybe if a more stable government came to power in 1993?



Ran across a description earlier in the googling, looks interesting...

The LDP wouldn't be capable of avoiding the Lost Decade. The politicians left too much of their decisions to what the bureaucrats told them was "best". They'd do the same thing, no imagination, and too much favouring of vested interests without any intention of giving their corrupt friends the boot.

With a POD like I suggest for 1989, the crash happening in 1997, it's quite plausible IMHO for the JDP under Ozawa to win election in a landslide by the early 2000's. The JDP would do roughly what they did with Hatoyama, but smarter and sneakier. Ozawa is a sneaky sod, very cunning, and very smart. He'd rule with an iron-fist, and be much better at keeping the JDP going in the same direction (at least in public). There'd be no more easy credit, and there'd be massive cuts in government spending. The economy would go into a worse spiral, but all the deadwood corporations get cleaned out. The social changes would be dramatic, Japan would become politically unstable, and look like the basket-case of Asia...then it could recover within a few years.

Such a landslide election result would have a similar effect to what we're seeing now OTL; the previously ruling LDP would begin to divide in factionalism, leaders breaking away to form their own parties to wash off the stink of defeat and bad policy making attached by association to the LDP. The LDP began as separate parties in a coalition anyway back in the 1950s.

After Ozawa's JDP in this ATL loses the election, Japan would probably be ruled by a succession of weak unstable coalition governments with prime ministers changing every few months. No strong centre, no strong government. Ripe for a return of militarism or some form of radical socialism. Cults would grow very powerful - again.

The legal system would also be weakened, police being poorly paid in such a situation. Increasingly going backwards.
 
That does sound intriguing, even if it violates OP; are you working on the TL by any chance?

I'm working on two different timelines that are related, but probably not entirely suitable for you. Even though I've been working on them for ages, there's big gaps in what would happen in the rest of the world. There could be some good ideas that you might use.

What are you looking for? What sort of world?
 
Hm... the restriction is too late, but if it were earlier, would you be looking for a removal of the Lost Decade or a Lost Decade? I have a feeling that delaying the burst is liable to make the following decade worse than the Lost Decade were when the burst finally comes, but the flip side of it is, of course, that triggering it earlier would make the Lost Decade less lost, so to speak (for instance: the tax cited in Raygun_McGuffin's TL wasn't so much the cause as the trigger. Remove the tax, remove the trigger, but the causes remain and will continue to build up), perhaps to a degree where the following 'Lost Decade' is less deep and over after less than a decade. In other words, an earlier post office personal savings account tax could, in fact, be a good idea if you are looking for removing a LD, but a bad idea if you are looking for removing the LD.
 
I have a small idea: no tax on post office accounts, but also government force Post Of. to gradually act as a sort of Central Bank. I don't know how, but aim would be to gradually start to move previously "frozen" funds into market. Accounts of banks conducted by Post Of., with a high interest rate? Loans granted to banks by the Post, no matter under what name hidden...? Whether the Government of Japan, instead of just tax-mail accounts, could come up with the idea of "make running" that money.
 
Ah well, you might prefer when the novels are finished then. ;)

It's a POD which could lead to a future re-run of the Pacific War. Insane isn't it?

With all respect, no way is Japan gonna pick wars with anybody. The US Navy would bootstomp them in short order, as would the Chinese - The PLAN is technologically primitive at the time, but has massive numbers on their side.
 
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