Franz Ferdinand never meets Conrad von Hötzendorff

Based on a spin off of my other WW1 thread, what if Conrad von Hötzendorff never meets Franz Ferdinand and is therefore never appointed Chief of Staff of the K.u.K. army? I intend to do a TL based on this, but I am waiting on my interlibrary loan to get me a copy of the biography of a the man who would have been the new Chief had Conrad not appeared on the scene: Oskar Potiorek. He was General Beck's (the previous CoS of the Habsburg armies) deputy, general staff trained, had spent most of his career on the general staff in various departments including the operations and intelligence section, and was very well connected at the imperial court.

By all rights he should have been selected as the Chief of Staff being easily the most qualified. That was until Franz Ferdinand decided to start playing soldier to solidify his power base in the empire. What I am proposing is that Ferdinand is either less interested in turning the army into his political playground or he just never meets Conrad on maneuvers, which then lets him dismiss Beck in 1906 and Potiorek take over. Now, it may seem be trading down for a worse chief given Potiorek's record in Serbia, but after reading "the austro-hungarian campaign against serbia 1914" by Güther Rothenberg, one of the best Habsburg scholars today, Serbia possessed enormous advantages in that campaign that no one in the Austro-Hungarian forces appreciated. Basically, no matter who was thrown in the campaign, they would have ended with the same result.

Armed with this knowledge, Potiorek is actually a better pick for a number of reasons: he was not nearly as trusting of the Germans as Conrad, he had political power to resist Franz Josef's intrusions into the military sphere in August 1914, he possessed all the same reformist zeal of Conrad, and the best part IMO was that he was general staff trained and understood logistics and broader strategy that Conrad lacked as a soldier how was advanced much above his station in terms of experience and outlook. Also, he was not hamstrung by his lust for a married woman and not therefore distracted during the war (Conrad took several hours nightly to write to Gina, his married amour, even during the periods that required his undivided attention at AOK. Conrad even would forgo sleep to write her, which often clouded his mind the following days and helped contribute to his bought of the flu during the August campaign in 1914, something that further distracted him from his already limited contributions at army headquarters.

Assuming the CoS position in 1906 would also prevent him from getting wrapped up in the mess in Bosnia and death of Franz Ferdinand (to those who cry "Butterflies!" I say that the Serbs would still be trying to assassinate him and he would have to visit Bosnia eventually), which severely impacted his presence of mind during the war, making him focus more on repairing his reputation through offensive action against Serbia than taking the militarily prudent action of staying on the defensive.

So, all that said, would there be any interest in THIS timeline?

Edit: It seems that Conrad briefly served on the operations section, but only for about 2 months. Though Conrad was widely considered the top tactician in the army, Potiorek was the logistic and strategy specialist that everyone turned to. However, Conrad seemed to have the confidence of the army due to his having a number of commands, while Potiorek was not as widely respected as the largest formation he ever led was a brigade.
Also, it appears that Conrad never wanted to be the CoS; he was only interested in commanding combat formation.

Historically yes, even worse than Conrad, but he was in the car with Ferdinand and was in charge of his security. Here he won't be, but still, prior to the assassination one of the few things that he agreed with Conrad about was the danger of Serbia and supported preemptive war against it.

Also, I am of the school of thought that Austrian intelligence was aware of the plot to kill Ferdinand, as they were the best service in Europe at the time, and by order of someone high up allowed it to happen to preserve the empire. Also, after the war a year's worth of intelligence records were discovered to be missing.

I agree that the Hapsburg bureaucracy didn't much care for Franz Ferdinand but this sounds like a real stretch. It would have served Hapsburg interests if they could have conclusively linked the Serbs / Black Hand to the incident but making arrests before the murders took place better yet at the board if their intelligence was good enough. It would have been nice to arrest Serbian officers on a plot to kill the Hapsburg heir.

What would Russia and France do then? They going to support overt regicide by Serbia?

Michael

I suppose there was no hard evidence to link Serbia to the murder. Franz Ferdinand was threatening to rip the empire apart because of his hard line on the Hungarians. There could very well have been a civil war had he assumed the throne and the civil service knew it. Everyone wanted an excuse to fight Serbia, so it was a 'kill two birds' scenario.

I do not think the Hungarians would be able to fight for that long even if it turned into a full-scale civil war.

It was mostly the Hungarian nobility that wanted Hungary independent. The serfs and proletariat were not emancipated and had no say in the government. Nationalism was big and the Hungarian government controlled the Honved (the Hungarian home guard), which they secretly and consistently shuffled the best and most loyal recruits, best weapons, most supplies etc to. This means they have somewhat of an army, but also means that they have very little influence over the K.u.K. Army.

Say that there is no ww1 and Franz Ferdinand orders the Hungarian parliament to dissolve and join the new federater Imperial parliament, the Hungarians refuse, and are supported by many if not most Hungarians and most of the Honved, they still have the Imperial and Royal Army against them, the much more industrialised and richer Austrian part of the Empire (Austria and Bohemia-Moravia) as well as the threat of their own minorities revolting. The Romanians in Translylvania, the Serbs in Banat, the Slovaks in Slovakia, the Croats in Croatia and so on.

Also, the Russians, who are wary of their own minorities, will most likely support Austria, as they did 1848. Most likely Germany will support its ally too. If the Austrians have stayed off Bosnia, they also have a very good international standing. The French might be neutral, the Brits will probably diplomatically support Austria. Italy might want to see a chance to get Südtürol, but without any support, they'll stay quiet, especially if Germany supports Austria. Serbia might want to do something too, but without Russia supporting them, they'll stay down too. This means the Hungarians are isolated not only physically but also diplomatically and the Austrians have no borders to worry about.

I do not think the Hungarians have the troops nor the industrial resources to fight for long. If they try to hold on to their minorities, they spread themselves dangerously thin. If they try to only defend lands populated by the Hungarians, they abandon much of the historical Hungary and allow the Austrias to move in, organise the locals and their resources and attack Hungary from all sides. If the Austrians are smart, they probably offer all in historical Hungary, including the minorities an abolishment of serfdom, male suffrage and emancipation. Can the Hungarian nobility even count on the full support of all Hungarians then?

I expect the Austrians to be victorious within six months and it will probably be seen as a crushing of a revolt or a coup rather than a full-blown civil war.

von Adler said:

I do not think the Hungarians have the troops nor the industrial resources to fight for long. If they try to hold on to their minorities, they spread themselves dangerously thin. If they try to only defend lands populated by the Hungarians, they abandon much of the historical Hungary and allow the Austrias to move in, organise the locals and their resources and attack Hungary from all sides. If the Austrians are smart, they probably offer all in historical Hungary, including the minorities an abolishment of serfdom, male suffrage and emancipation. Can the Hungarian nobility even count on the full support of all Hungarians then?

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IIRC, the threat was actually made several times and was part of the plan to cripple Hungary in exactly such a case. The Hungarians start pushing, the Austrians force universal suffrage (universal meaning men of age) down everyone's throats.

Allow me to be one of those who cry "Butterflies!" with regard to Franz Ferdinand's hypothetical death. OTL, the June 28th plot came THIS close to miscarrying completely; most of the Black Hand people literally just stood there as the motorcade passed - even Princip didn't do anything the first time around; Nedjelko Cabrinovic was the only guy who seemed to remember what he was supposed to be doing. In fact, Princip had retired into a local bistro to drown his sorrows, and the only reason - the only reason, let me reiterate - that he got the opportunity to take his shots was because of that idiot chauffeur.

I will grant you that a different plot might have had better luck. Then again, FF could just as well have been assasinated anywhere else. Heck, he could have fallen off a horse and broken his neck or something.

I would simply like to state my interest in this possible tl, always been very interested in Potiorek. Good luck!

One interesting question about a different chief of staff is would they have worked better with Germany; especially pre-war?

miketr said:

One interesting question about a different chief of staff is would they have worked better with Germany; especially pre-war?

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That is a very good question; I have to wait until my bio of Potiorek arrives to confirm that. His mention, General Beck, was corresponding well with the Germans before he resigned, but then again, it was Moltke who cut off relations with the Austrians out of mistrust*. So perhaps it is not the Austrian's fault after all. Conrad actually had very good relations with the Moltke until the war started and the Germans started to screw over Austria with every opportunity. However, Conrad never really pushed for maintaining planning relations, preferring to operate in his own little fantasy world, repeatedly revising his operations plan for fun, much to the chagrin of his staff who would have to develop the actual minutia of said plans on their CoS's whim.

*This turned out to be correct, as the Redl affair demonstrated, much contrary to my recent claims about the quality of Austro-Hungarian intelligence. However, it is pretty hard to catch a double agent when he is running your counter intelligence branch! I can speak from family experience: my Aunt used to work for Army intelligence during the cold war and found out in the 90's that her boss had been selling secrets to the Russians for over 10 years, longer than Redl had been doing so!
But to the credit of the Austro-Hungarians, he was finally discovered by a subordinate that then rose to the head of the intelligence branch, performing very effectively in that role.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Redl

I don't see Potiorek to be as big an improvement over Conrad as you do. IIRC we've had this argument before. One difference that is sort of interesting is that with Potiorek Price Eugen will be less passive and may seriously consider replacing him if he screws up.

von Adler said:

Snip

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Yeah, Hungary did not stand a chance. I did a short TL about that a while back and my research as well as other users' comments indicated that Hungary would have been internationally isolated and without the means to produce ammunition, lacking access to nitrates. The top Hungarian leadership realized the extremely privileged nature of their position within the empire, but used nationalist fervor they whipped up to leverage even more influence. Really a smarmy thing to do and potentially would have blown up in their face in 1917 without a war. They needed a war against Serbia too to keep the lid on nationalist aspirations of their own people and minorities. Really, the Hungarians were in a bad way, they had stirred up their own people and men like Tisza realized the fire his was playing with, part of the reason for his dictatorial methods in the Hungarian parliament. Luckily the peasantry was not politically informed or really that educated, but they were leaving the country for the US in record amounts, something like over 15% of the total Magyar population emigrating between 1890-1900!

That said, in a civil war the Empire would lose, as then it would only be held together by force and the Slavs would be demanding a greater role now that the Hungarians were no longer a 'master' race in the empire. Furthermore, the Russians would NOT sit idly by because the minority races being oppressed in Austria-Hungary were Slavs, the very people they claimed to be the champion of. In fact, they wanted to carve off pieces of the empire for years, something they made sure to do when WW1 started, every time they conquered a city in Galicia in 1914 the Tzar would proclaim it part of the Russian empire immediately, obviously thinking the war was in the bag.

Also, had a civil war happened and everyone with claims on the empire did not jump in to carve off their slice (Russia, Serbia, Romania, Italy), the Empire would still have been worse off due to economic destruction and dislocation as well as the internal political consequences. So much easier to just kill off Ferdinand, fight Serbia and win, revitalizing the empire by reminding the people of unity and move on with the more pliable Karl.

The ironic thing was that Fredinand had given up on his plans to reform the empire in 1914 and wanted to maintain the Dual Monarchy system! This was discovered in his papers after his death with recommendation for his successor.

Tom_B said:

I don't see Potiorek to be as big an improvement over Conrad as you do. IIRC we've had this argument before. One difference that is sort of interesting is that with Potiorek Price Eugen will be less passive and may seriously consider replacing him if he screws up.

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Do you mean Erzherzog Friedrich, the supreme commander of the army? Eugen was managing the Red Cross in Austria until he was ordered by Franz Josef to replace Potiorek in December 1914.
http://www.austro-hungarian-army.co.uk/biog/erzeugen.htm

That said, I would agree he would be replaced earlier than Conrad due to his lack of support within the army (unless he coopts Conrad into his orbit, which may mean Conrad still ends up replacing Potiorek!)
But due to his contacts at court, it may take a while before that happens.
My perception of Potiorek is that he would be strong enough to resist the call for an offensive in Galicia and stick to the San-Dniester line, while finishing off Serbia with the 2nd army. My opinion of course, and like I said, I am still waiting on Potioreks bio from my library (may take a while).

wiking said:

That is a very good question; I have to wait until my bio of Potiorek arrives to confirm that. His mention, General Beck, was corresponding well with the Germans before he resigned, but then again, it was Moltke who cut off relations with the Austrians out of mistrust*. So perhaps it is not the Austrian's fault after all. Conrad actually had very good relations with the Moltke until the war started and the Germans started to screw over Austria with every opportunity. However, Conrad never really pushed for maintaining planning relations, preferring to operate in his own little fantasy world, repeatedly revising his operations plan for fun, much to the chagrin of his staff who would have to develop the actual minutia of said plans on their CoS's whim.

*This turned out to be correct, as the Redl affair demonstrated, much contrary to my recent claims about the quality of Austro-Hungarian intelligence. However, it is pretty hard to catch a double agent when he is running your counter intelligence branch! I can speak from family experience: my Aunt used to work for Army intelligence during the cold war and found out in the 90's that her boss had been selling secrets to the Russians for over 10 years, longer than Redl had been doing so!
But to the credit of the Austro-Hungarians, he was finally discovered by a subordinate that then rose to the head of the intelligence branch, performing very effectively in that role.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Redl

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During the Bosnian Annexation crisis Conrad wanted to re-open staff level talks with Germany but Aehrenthal nixed the idea of fear that if it was leaked that it was occurring it would make matters worse.

I agree that, to be kind, Germany was heavy handed with its Ally. At the same time the performance of the Hapsburg Army was problematic; hence the pair of threads. I think it comes down to if KuK army does better on the battlefield they would be able to better stand up to Germany. At the same time Austria-Hungary was very dependent on Germany for cash and industrial support during the war so the Germans are always going to have leverage. Its a question though of how much.

Michael

wiking said:

Yeah, Hungary did not stand a chance. I did a short TL about that a while back and my research as well as other users' comments indicated that Hungary would have been internationally isolated and without the means to produce ammunition, lacking access to nitrates. The top Hungarian leadership realized the extremely privileged nature of their position within the empire, but used nationalist fervor they whipped up to leverage even more influence. Really a smarmy thing to do and potentially would have blown up in their face in 1917 without a war. They needed a war against Serbia too to keep the lid on nationalist aspirations of their own people and minorities. Really, the Hungarians were in a bad way, they had stirred up their own people and men like Tisza realized the fire his was playing with, part of the reason for his dictatorial methods in the Hungarian parliament. Luckily the peasantry was not politically informed or really that educated, but they were leaving the country for the US in record amounts, something like over 15% of the total Magyar population emigrating between 1890-1900!

That said, in a civil war the Empire would lose, as then it would only be held together by force and the Slavs would be demanding a greater role now that the Hungarians were no longer a 'master' race in the empire. Furthermore, the Russians would NOT sit idly by because the minority races being oppressed in Austria-Hungary were Slavs, the very people they claimed to be the champion of. In fact, they wanted to carve off pieces of the empire for years, something they made sure to do when WW1 started, every time they conquered a city in Galicia in 1914 the Tzar would proclaim it part of the Russian empire immediately, obviously thinking the war was in the bag.

Also, had a civil war happened and everyone with claims on the empire did not jump in to carve off their slice (Russia, Serbia, Romania, Italy), the Empire would still have been worse off due to economic destruction and dislocation as well as the internal political consequences. So much easier to just kill off Ferdinand, fight Serbia and win, revitalizing the empire by reminding the people of unity and move on with the more pliable Karl.

The ironic thing was that Fredinand had given up on his plans to reform the empire in 1914 and wanted to maintain the Dual Monarchy system! This was discovered in his papers after his death with recommendation for his successor.

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I don't see the Russians moving in against Austria to support any Slavs if the Hungarians rise - if they do, it will most likely be to support Austria as they did 1848-49 against the Hungarians. They left when the Austrians came to take over then, why would they not 1917? Pan-slavism was really on the decline after the last war against the Ottomans 1877. The Russians have their own minorities to mind 1917 - Poles, Finns and Romanians and that is just along the western border. A Russian attack on Austria will provoke a German response. The French MIGHT support the Russians, but I don't think Italy can weasel out of the war in that situation, and perhaps not Romania either. And the British will not support France and Russia in this situation - and the Russians know it.

Bosnian annexation of 1908. Russia was screwed over by Austria and pan-slavism was the reason to support Serbia in 1914, as they had no alliance with Serbia to require them to support it. Austria was on the way out and Russia wanted Galicia at a minimum. They had every reason to fight Austria-Hungary especially given their suppression of Slav minorities, the worst in Hungary. Austria-Hungary only has one friend that doesn't want parts of their empire: Germany

Well, I've read and returned the bio of Potiorek, which sadly did not include the information I was looking for. Most of it focuses on his life after being passed over for CoS, which left little space for his tenure as head of the operations bureau and as second in command under Beck as his groomed replacement.

However several things really stood out:
-he never commanded a unit larger than a brigade, meaning he was very poorly suited for army command, despite performing well on manuevers under Conrad's tenure
-his training was highly focused on staff work and essentially geared for the very top slot in the army
-he also was reported as extremely intelligent by every officer he served with, as well as in every school he attended and widely regarded as an expert in strategy and logistics
-despite being younger than Conrad and entering the military academy a year later than him, Potiorek surpassed Conrad in promotions very quickly within the general staff
-while very much a Habsburg loyalist, he was not as rabidly anti-Hungarian, Italian, or Slav (as he was Slovene by birth) as Conrad or most of the Habsburg bureaucracy
-he was not a man of singular passions as Conrad was, making him more focused on bigger picture issues, instead of obsessive as Conrad became
-he was not well liked by many in the army, as Conrad was. Instead he seems to have been respected at a distance by most, having built up a major following, especially in the general staff. These men then intrigued against Conrad for some time, convinced (rightly) that Conrad was totally unqualified for the position

Finally and perhaps most telling:
Conrad was extremely wary of accepting Ferdinand's offer of the CoS position, as he felt he was unqualified and that Potiorek was much better suited for the role. Both Conrad and Potiorek's biographers agree with the assessment.

Furthermore I found it quite interesting that while in charge of the operations bureau Potiorek assumed that war with Serbia automatically meant that Russia would enter the war, which would necessitate that the full weight of Habsburg forces be immediately brought to bear in the East, something that Conrad changed when revising the war plans during his tenure. From what I was able to piece together the equivalent of 9 divisions (many Landsturm and independent Mountain Brigades) would be left to screen Serbia while the 1,2,3,4 armies all were sent immediately against Russia for an offensive action.

This is partly based on the assumption by Potiorek that the Germans would be headed West with their forces, meaning AH would be left holding the bag for a while and needed to score early victories while the Russians were still concentrating their forces. That means no San-Dniester defensive line, but rather a fully concentrated AH army launched right into the thick of mobilizing Russian forces.

Interesting whats the title of the Bio?

miketr said:

Interesting whats the title of the Bio?

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Rudolf Jeřábek:
Potiorek: General im Schatten von Sarajevo
Graz und Köln 1991.

The title alone gives the focus of the bio, but some other background info was there. I also supplemented this info with the bio of Conrad:
http://www.amazon.com/Franz-Conrad-...=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1286205315&sr=8-4