Phony War, Short War

Eurofed

Banned
PoD: it is a clear night in Berlin Tempelhof Airport on November 8, 1939, and Adolf Hitler elects to return to Berlin by airplane as planned, after he delivers his Beer Hall Putsch commemoration speech in Munich.

The bomb planted in the Hall by the anti-Nazi joiner Georg Elser goes off as planned at 9.20pm, while Hitler is in the midst of a full-swing tirade against the British. The blast kills Hitler and his deputy Hess instantly. His right-hand man and designed successor Goering is severely wounded as well and dies a few hours later.

With the death of Hitler and without a clearly identified successor, a vicious power struggle for succession spanning a few weeks erupts between Goebbels, Bormann and the Nazi Party, Himmler, Heydrich and the SS network, and the military. Himmler tries to seize power with a coup, which forces the hand of the Heer. The SS coup is crushed, Himmler is shot, and Heydrich purged. The SS are disbanded and their aborning combat branch merged with the Wehrmacht. After some discussion, Reichenau is appointed by his fellow generals and sworn in as new President of the Reich. Todt is nominated Chancellor, Speer takes his place as minister of armaments. Schacht is reinstated as minister of the economy. Goebbels retains his role as minister of propaganda. Joachim von Ribbentrop is fired as Foreign Minister, and the position is given back to von Neurath. Bormann is dismissed and secretly executed on trumped-up charges of complicity in the SS coup because he knew too much. Kesselring becomes new head of the air force.

The new German government immediately assured Stalin that he would continue to abide by the Hitler-Stalin Pact signed in August 1939 "until futher notice". It then approached the British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain to discuss a ceasefire. Chamberlain reasserted that Germany had to withdraw from Poland before any ceasefire would be considered.

Despite the first snubbing, the new German leadership, largely made up by the Heer and the technocratic moderate wing of the Nazi bureaucracy, was much less sanguine than Hitler about extensive territorial conquest in the East and anxious to put an end to the war with the Entente, now that German grievances with Poland had been settled.

Germany further notified the British government that they were willing to discuss a peace settlement that involved a re-establishment of the Polish state, provided that "sensible German territorial claims" were satisfied.

This brought about a confrontation in the British government: the hardline faction, headed by Churchill and Eden, was for intransigence, and called for continuation of the war till victory. Another faction, headed by Lord Halifax, supported opening peace negotiations, remarking that any possiblity to restore Poland's independence (the British war aim) without bloodshed had to be explored, and that Britain had made no committment about Polish territorial integrity.

Premier Chamberlain was divided: on one hand, he pursued a peaceful policy with Germany, and reluctantly declared war only when forced by proof of Hitler's brutal intransigence and untrustworthiness. The betrayal of Munich's agreement when Hitler had invaded Czechoslovakia stinged; yet Hitler was dead and the new leaders in Berlin seemed to speak a different language. He expressed support to open peace talks about terms that would entail the re-establishment of the independence of Czechoslovakia and Poland, and some proof of sincerity of German intentions would be needed. After a heated debate, the Cabinet voted to support this platform.

On receiving the British answer, a debate ensued in the German government, too. On one hand, control of Czech economic resources was very valuable to Germany, and so was strategic control of Poland as a forward defense against possible Soviet aggression (despite the Non-Aggression Pact, few in Berlin harbored doubts that Stalin would break it if it saw an opportunity). On the other hand, ending the war, which none of the leaders had wanted, would allow to redress the German economy and realign its military for defense in the East. And neither Reichenau nor Todt or the generals were overly interested into the radical plans about racial colonization and assimilation of Czechia and Poland that Hitler had harbored, especially not if the price was a long, exhausting, and risky war with the West. They just wanted to fulfill Germany's traditional territorial grievances about the Versailles settlement (keeping Danzig and as much as of the pre-1914 German territories as they could afford) and maintain Czechia and Poland in the German sphere of influence. There were also doubts that giving too many concessions to the West about Poland would be seen by Stalin as a betrayal of previous accords with Hitler about the partition of Poland.

In the end, it was reluctantly decided to make some tangible concessions to the West about the status of the former Slav nations: the Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia was given back some degree of autonomy as a puppet state, and the General Government was likewise restored as a Polish puppet state, with a government of Polish collaborators. With some reluctance, it was also decided to end discrimination measures for Jews living within the Polish state. Britain was notified that these measures were a token of German seriousness about a sensible settlement, and more could be done if peace negotiations were started in earnest. At the same time, Russia was told that such measures were an attempt to win peace from the West, and Germany was determined to keep control of the Polish space, and prevent the resurrection of Poland as a threat to Germany and Soviet Union alike.

Stalin was not fooled by German reassurances, however, he saw that the M-R settlement was at risk, and a Western-German peace and detente could happen, which would emperil his strategy. So he accelerated his timetable, trying to win as much as he could while the war kept the capitalist powers busy. The Baltic states, which had been recently forced to accept Soviet bases, were occupied by the Red Army, which installed new, pro-Soviet governments in all three countries. Following rigged elections, in which only pro-communist candidates were allowed to run, the newly "elected" parliaments of the three countries formally applied to "join" the USSR and were annexed into it. Soon afterwards, upon a trumped-up pretext of a false-flag Finnish bombing on Soviet territory, the USSR declared war on Finland.

The new German peace offer, and Soviet actions, strengthened the hand of the peace faction in the British government, and after much debate, a narrow agreement was reached about starting peace negotiations, which were secretly opened in Lisbon.

However, Stalin was not the only one that was not fooled about German intentions, and Mussolini, too, decided to accelerate his own expansionist plans before peace between Germany and the West would close his window for action. Long-standing plans for an attack to Yugoslavia were dusted off, contacts with poro-Italian Croat separatists reactivated, offers for an anti-Yugoslav alliance made to (and accepted by) Hungary and Bulgaria, and Italian troops mobilized. An abortive uprising by Croat fascist separatists was used as a casus belli, and Italy attacked Yugoslavia, soon followed by Hungary and Bulgaria.

Despite the aggressive intentions of the two dictators, the attacks on Finland and Yugoslavia showed that the Soviet and the Italian militaries were quite riddled with embarassing flaws, which allowed the Finnish army to stage a successful defense. Despite the manifold problems of the Italian army, however, the large-scale defection of Slovenian and Croat troops, which were unwilling to fight for a Yugoslav kingdom largely hegemonized by the Serbs, critically hampered the Yugoslav resistance, as did the multi-front war. So the Serbian core of the army was gradually forced to fall back on a "national redoubt" largely made up of Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia.

A strange international landscape ensued for a few months, where Britain, France, and Germany, nominally at war, shunned any large land operations and only confronted each other in naval and air skirmishes, while war openly raged in northern Europe and the Balkans. Stalin and Mussolini, stung by the loss of face in their inability to crush minor powers, sacked generals and implemented reforms of the military, and gradually the Red Army and the Italian Army came closer and closer to breaking the stalemate. Heroic Finnish resistance was supported by Swedish military assistance and "volunteers", even if Sweden did not dare to officially intervene in the war. There was some serious talk in the Anglo-French governments of intervening in the Winter War, even if, as long as the state of war with Germany persisted, such an intervention would require the controversial violation of Norwegian and Swedish neutrality. So preparations for sich intervention progressed slowly. As it concerned the Third Balkan War, France made some rumors abour supporting Yugoslavia, but Britain was largely disinterested as long as Italy steered off Greece.

In the meanwhile, peace negotiations between the Germans and the Anglo-French slowly progressed. Gradually a comprehensive agreement was reached.

As it concerns Czechia, it established that Germany would withdraw all troops and restore the independence of the Czech Republic in its March 1939 borders, even if it reserved the right to maintain an economic union and a defense pact with it. The legitminate Czech government by Emil Hacha (which had been fairly friendly to Germany before the invasion and had collaborated during the German occupation) would be restored in power. Germany would The return of the anti-German leaders of the Czechoslovak National Liberation Committee, leaded by Benes, was not to be allowed.

As it concerns Poland, the full independence of Poland would be re-established and its government-in-exile reinstated. Germany would annex Danzig, West Prussia, and Upper Silesia, up to the pre-1914 border of the latter two provinces. The province of Posen would be partitioned between Germany and Poland, with Germany annexing a strip in the northern and western part of the province and Poland getting most of it. In order to maintain its own access to the sea, Poland was allowed extraterritorial use of the port facilities of Gdynia as well as an extraterritorial railroad and highway connection to it. Germany and Poland would then enact a population exchange of the respective minorities. Germany guaranteed that ethnic Poles willing to undergo and suitable for Germanization would be allowed to stay, and only those who wanted to maintain Polish national identity or were "politically, culturally, or racially unsuitable for assimilation in the German Volk" (including German Jews) would be expelled.

As it concerned Germany and the Entente, they would return to the status quo ante. With Britain, Germany agreed to reinstate the Anglo-German Naval Agreement of 1935, which Hitler had denounced in 1939 during the build-up to war with Poland and limited German Navy to 35% of the British one, and they included submarines in the new version of agreement. Moreover, Germany issued a declaration by which it renounced any further territorial claims in Europe, and offered Belgium, France, and Denmark to repatriate those members of their German minorities that were willing to opt for German citizenship, on the model of the similar German-Italian agreement about South Tyrol. Preliminary accords were also made with France about mutual military reductions on the German-French border.

These terms were acceptable to Germany, Britain, and France, but for political reasons, the Entente was eager to get the explicit assent of the Polish GiE to the peace scheme, which they stubbornly refused to do.

However, their resistance was won when the German negotiatiors made a subtle threat: put it simply, if the Polish leaders refused to make peace, Germany would pull its controlled area back to the 1914 border, enact annexations and expulsions as established, quite possibly in a more extensive way, and then in all likelihood the Soviet Union would quickly sweep in and annex the rest of Poland, without opposition by Germany. In such a case, Poland would be in an even worse situation, and if the Entente really wanted to restore the Polish state, they would have to fight an even bigger war (what they most likey were unwilling to do). The threat worked and the Polish GiE reluctantly assented to the peace scheme. After much controversy, the peace settlement was approved by the German, British, and French governments, and narrowly ratified by the British and French parliaments.

On the impending German-Entente peace, Soviet Russia and Italy (and its allies) redoubled their efforts to subdue their respective enemies. It seemed that the military shake-ups of the recent months had paid off, since Finnish and Yugoslav resistance started to crumble, and it appeared that a strategic breakthrough was imminent. Nonetheless, both Stalin and Mussolini were wary of pressing on for total victory and occupation of enemy countries, since they feared that peace with Germany would free up the Entente for possible intervention in the Winter or Balkan wars. So they made peace offers to their exhausted enemies, which were accepted.

Finland was forced to cede Finnish Karelia and the Petsamo area. Italy annexed western Dalmatia, Inner Carniola, Kosovo, and northwestern Vardar Macedonia. It set up Slovenia and the Banovina of Croatia as independent satellite states. In Voivodina, Backa and Baranja were annexed by Hungary, while Syrmia went to Croatia. Bulgaria annexed most of Vardar Macedonia.

In a relatively short time during April 1940, a series of peace treaties were signed between Britain, France, Germany, Czech Republic, Poland, Italy, Yugoslavia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Russia, Finland, and an uneasy peace settled on the continent. Many of the expansionist ambitions and the reasonable irredentist claims of the revisionist powers (Germany, Italy, Soviet Russia) had been satisfied, casting off the humiliating Versailles settlement, and although their leaders might wish for more, they were also wary of pushing them and bringing on them the ire of the other great powers. Britain and France could claim that the independence of Poland and Czechia had been restored, and the one of Finland, preseved without a long and destructive general war with Germany and Russia (even if those states had suffered painful territorial losses). Throughout the continent, people celebrated the return of peace.
 
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Lets see: Hitler dies. Germans purge the Nazis. Germans make peace with the West. Stalin decides to be an ass. Italy gets enlarged.

Yes, this sure is an Eurofed TL.
 

Eurofed

Banned
I like this - especially would like to see what happens in Asia.

Asia is indeed an interesting place (in the normal and Chinese sense, likely). The main focus is of course Japan, which may or may not be in a really bad tight spot. America is downright hostile to their merry little adventure in China, yet there is not yet an embargo in place to make them desperate. Without a Nazi Germany on the rampage to make FDR itch to get an excuse for belligerence, it may or may not come in the future.

If it does not, Japan remains bogged down in China for a relatively long while, and it exhausts itself in a (likely futile) attempt to crush Chinese resistance, which in turn keeps China an absolute mess. With avenues with expansion in Europe closed by Entente-German reconciliation, Stalin may easily decide to get wild in China, since the Western powers are not likely to help Japan against him. If he does not, again, Japan remains bog down in a Chinese mega-Vietnam for a long while, until exhaustion overcomes Japanese obsession about loss of face and they pull out. They would still be able to keep Manchukuo and retain a decently-sized empire, however. There would be a lot of dead Chinese and China would made a total mess, with the KMT barely keeping to power, with warlords and Communists in need of a put-down. The silver lining (assuming that China has the good sense to leave Manchukuo alone and does not try a foolish reconquest) is that the potential sponsors for the KMT (US, UK, Germany, USSR) would not be in dearth, both during and after the conflict with Japan.

If he does, the Red Army is not got to have it nowhere as easy as August Storm, but it is still likely to be a curbstomp, with Russia easily getting Manchuria (although Japan may manage to keep Korea, and it surely gets and keeps all of Sakhalin) and forcing Japan to pull out of China, which would basically exchange a Japanese would-be overlord with a Soviet one. Chiang may decide to suck it up, accept the loss of Manchuria and Xinjiang, and focus on rebuilding his country, in such a case the damage is limited; there is Soviet expansionism to keep at bay but again, Western sponsors are likely to send support. If he resists the Soviets, there is still a long resistance war against a stronger expansionist invader which wrecks the country.

If America applies the embargo, Japan is still in a tight spot (although with peace in Europe, they may find themselves in a less desperate situation: Netherlands may or may not decide to go along with the US policy) and could be easily provoked to the usual rampage in South East Asia (although ITTL it might not pick the PH strategy, and instead try to trap the USN in a ambush) and is curbstomped by an Anglo-French-American coalition giving the Pacific War their full and undivided strength.
 
I expect Chamberlain will call a general election in the UK for sometime in May or June 1940 after the peace treaties.
 

Eurofed

Banned
I can't see this peace lasting long. Will this TL continue? :)

It may or may not continue.

There are several kinds of conflict I can easily see happening in Asia (see my previous post), but I do not foresee any major conflict necessarily exploding in Europe.

The radical Nazi wackos have fallen from power in Germany, and the nation has to redress the economic problems that Hitler left behind by toning down military spending. The Heer-technocratic leadership is far too fearful of losing a war with the West to try and redress economic woes by invading and pillaging Western Europe, and the Lebensraum twisted dreams died with Hitler and Himmler.

Mussolini is not mad enough to go on a solo expansionist rampage against the Entente without Germany to back him, plus he got the sphere of influence in the Balkans he sought.

Stalin reaped as much territorial gains from the M-R settlement as he could before it collapsed due to German-Entente peace, now he is forced to thread cautiously in Europe (East Asia is another matter), lest he provokes the anti-Soviet coalition war he fears. He might still stumble into it, however we may easily assume that the cautious side of him prevails on the paranoid side, and his habit to underestimate his enemies. It could differently, however.

And the Entente is perfectly fine with the new status quo, if the other great powers maintain it.

The only war I easily foresee in Europe's future concerns Romania, if Horthy and/or Stalin get confident, and could possibly involve a de facto Hungarian-Soviet (quite possibly the Bulgarians, too) alliance of convenience curbstomping the Romanians. Stalin would have to tread cautiously, here, however, as this could easily trigger a Western intervention. A limited war could perhaps happen if Hungary starts the war, and the Soviet intervene later. In such a case, it is more likely that the war remains limited, and it ends with Hungary grabbing northern Transylvania, the USSR Bessarabia, and Bulgaria southern Dobruja.

If Stalin remains cautious afterwards, this would surely usher in a long streak of peace in Europe. Of course, pulling successful aggressions in Baltics, Poland, Finland, and Romania without serious consequences could easily lead to Stalin getting overconfidence and victory disease, leading him to make yet another aggressive move in Europe (say against Turkey) and this would surely provoke an anti-Soviet coalition and WWII. OTOH, he could also easily decide to make Japan and China his next victims. This would likely keep Europe at peace, although a Cold War against expansionist USSR would ensue.
 

Eurofed

Banned
I expect Chamberlain will call a general election in the UK for sometime in May or June 1940 after the peace treaties.

He would be obliged to, since with return to peace, the normal constitutional five-years maximum duration of the British Parliament would be reinstated, and the last general election happened in 1935.

The outcome of such an election would be interesting. Britain has not suffered a long exhausting war to fuel the Labor triumph (even if it is bound to happen sooner or later, the appetite of the British lower and middle classes for welfare state is only going to grow in the long term). Chamberlain has narrowly avoided a terrible general war and seized a honorable peace, restraining German expansionism to tolerable levels with practically no bloodshed. Hence I would see this election becoming another confortable Tory victory.

Of course, no matter what, Chamberlain is doomed to die soon by cancer (although with a wholly different legacy and place is history as a respected diplomatic mastermind) and a successor would be needed. Churchill ITTL got his anti-German radical stance discredited by new-found German moderation after the timely demise of Hitler (which, weird as it may seem, shall go in the history books as a respected, if nastier, Bismarck figure, say a German Ataturk) and he's headed for another tour of the political wilderness, this time likely for good. Unless either Stalin or Japan go on a rampage, in such a case, he could reinvent himself as an anti-Soviet or anti-Japanese charismatic firebrand. I would say the likely successors are Halifax (more likely, his ideas got vindicated by the peace treaties, and he likely took an hand in drafting them) or Eden (if he rebalances himself on a pro-detente stance).
 

Eurofed

Banned
Hitler dies.

The man got so many assassination attempts, and avoided many of them by the most improbable bouts of luck, that a PoD or butterfly reversing any of that luck is always wholly justified.

Germans purge the Nazis.

With Hitler dead in 1939, the Heer is the by far most likely successor, if Goring cannot bring the generals on his side (this TL conveniently wipes out some Nazi bigwigs in the blast, but the succession power struggle could have easily had the same result). And once the generals are in charge, they surely are not going to tolerate Himmler, the SS, and the Nazi wackos (or despised Hitlerite favorites like Bormann) in any position of power. You may notice that competent and moderate Nazi technocrats like Todt and Speer remain part of the new ruling elite. Goebbels, well, he sees the writing on the wall and manages to make himself useful to the new rulers.

Germans make peace with the West.

Chamberlain is still in charge, and he would eagerly reap a honorable compromise peace with Germany if untrustworthy Hitler is gone, both to spare Britain an exhausting war that would accelerate the demise of the Empire, and to make Germany useful as an anti-Soviet bulwark.

Stalin decides to be an ass.

He does what he did IOTL, and his strategy makes sense: he scrambles to reap as much as he can of the sphere of influence the M-R pact allotted to the Soviet Union, before German-Entente peace is finalized and closes that window.

Italy gets enlarged.

Mussolini picks on pretty much the only power that he could afford to, given the diplomatic and military constraints, and succeed, if more due to Yugoslav weakness than Italian strength. Nonetheless, despite the faulty state of Italian military, this is the war that Italy had prepared itself to fight since the 1920s, so a rather more competent Italian performance than OTL Greece is quite plausible, moreover Yugoslavia also gets a multi-front war and Slovene-Croat mass defection to cripple it.

Yes, this sure is an Eurofed TL.

You forgot to mention that the Jews are spared a genocide. :D
 

Biggy

Banned
So 8 mln Poles in areas Germany annexed are ethnicly cleansed?

As it concerned Poland, a tentative agreement was reached that involved the re-establishment of the full independence of Poland, and the reinstatement of its government-in-exile, in exchange for the recognition of the German annexation of Danzig, West Prussia, and Upper Silesia, up to the pre-1914 border of the latter two provinces, as well as a partition of the province of Posen according to the scheme proposed in 1848 by the Frankfurt Parliament. Germany and Poland would then enact a population exchange of the respective minorities (including German Jews). A stumbling bloc was represented by the British request of assent by the Polish GiE to the peace scheme, which they stubbornly refused to do.
No Polish government or party would agree to this. That means losing 90% of Polish industry and most mineral resources in addition to about 8mln Poles. As to the scheme from 1848:it includes Poznan and most of the region on the German side, with only a couple districts for Poles. Basically Poland has been reduced to a crippled German puppet.
 
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This is quite good all in all and I see that some of it is also subtly inspired by my TL "The Munich Coup" but with enough differences :D. This could get interesting, especially when 1942-'43 comes around. Will Stalin be cowed by détente between Germany, France and Britain or will his paranoid mind decide that the west is ganging up on him and aggressive to him, inducing a Soviet first strike? I did the latter already so the former (a cowed USSR) would be interesting to see.

Maybe Stalin goes after Japan and sets up communist Korea (spanning the whole peninsula this time) and communist China a few years early and then supports anticolonial movements in Asia in an alt-Cold War. And what of America? I doubt Japan will be foolish enough to attack without a major distraction for Europe in the shape of Germany and Italy and so the US remain neutral. Maybe, after being defeated by a reformed Red Army, the Japanese grudgingly side with the western block centred around Germany, Britain, France and Italy against the USSR.

The US remain a third bloc due to American-Japanese enmity. Nuclear weapons get invented a bit later due to lack of an incentive (threat of Axis A-Bombs) and the space race is generally a bit slower due to slower developing missile technology (no V2 missile or it's introduced later, it's use is limited to terror anyway).

All in all, we have a multipolar cold war:

USA vs. Europe+Japan vs. Sino-Soviet bloc + Korea
 
No Polish government or party would agree to this. That means losing 90% of Polish industry and most mineral resources in addition to about 8mln Poles. As to the scheme from 1848:it includes Poznan and most of the region on the German side, with only a couple districts for Poles. Basically Poland has been reduced to a crippled German puppet.

In this situation, I don't think the Poles have a choice. The options presented to them are a mockery of independence or Stalin. The West would have left them to rot if they didn't agree.

It's not like they're going to send soldiers to die by the tens, if not hundreds of thousands because the Poles couldn't agree to Germany's (to Britain and France) rather reasonable demands. World War I is still quite fresh in everyone's memories, after all.

If the Government in Exile refuses, then Britain and France exclaim, 'we tried, we really did, both us and the Germans, but those pesky Poles don't want to compromise' ... peace treaty gets signed anyway and the Poles are screwed.
 

Biggy

Banned
But who will sign such treaty?
And more importanly why should France and Britain be interested if they previously didn't accept far minor territorial changes?
It doesn't make sense.
 
So 8 mln Poles in areas Germany annexed are ethnicly cleansed?

No Polish government or party would agree to this. That means losing 90% of Polish industry and most mineral resources in addition to about 8mln Poles. As to the scheme from 1848:it includes Poznan and most of the region on the German side, with only a couple districts for Poles. Basically Poland has been reduced to a crippled German puppet.

Yeah - quite ridiculous. But then again - this is Eurofed project.;)
 

Eurofed

Banned
In this situation, I don't think the Poles have a choice. The options presented to them are a mockery of independence or Stalin. The West would have left them to rot if they didn't agree.

It's not like they're going to send soldiers to die by the tens, if not hundreds of thousands because the Poles couldn't agree to Germany's (to Britain and France) rather reasonable demands. World War I is still quite fresh in everyone's memories, after all.

If the Government in Exile refuses, then Britain and France exclaim, 'we tried, we really did, both us and the Germans, but those pesky Poles don't want to compromise' ... peace treaty gets signed anyway and the Poles are screwed.

Exactly. There is no way that Britain and France were willing to undergo a long, costly, and bloody war with Germany and the Soviet Union in order to restore Poland to its (questionable) 1919-1939 borders. As far as the Entente is concerned, Congress Poland plus western Austrian Poland borders, more or less, are good enough for a Polish state, given the strategic situation, and they have fulfilled their pledge to restore the political independence of Poland. Too bad they can't have their own access to the sea anymore, but again the economic independence of Poland from Germany is not worth risking hundred of thousands of Entente soldiers. At least with this peace treaty restores a Poland which is rather bigger than the General Government rump after the radical Hitlerite annexations (as everyone was keen to remark to the fuming Polish GiE).

So 8 mln Poles in areas Germany annexed are ethnicly cleansed?

Eight millions seems rather exaggerated to me. According to the 1931 Polish census (hardly likely to bias things against the Poles), the population of the Pomeranian and Poznan Voivodeships, as well as the Autonomous Silesian Voivodeship was 1.9 millions (10% Germans), 2.3 millions (7.4% Germans), and 1.5 millions (7% Germans). Admittedly, there were also the Polish minority that was present in southern East Prussia and pre-war German Upper Silesia, but they were negligible numbers in comparison. Of course, German Jews get expelled, too (400,000) as well as Jews from annexed areas (already factored in the numbers above).

Yeah, ethnic cleansing is quite nasty, inhumane, and brutal. It also builds neat, stable borders and reduces the fuel for irredentist wars a lot. IOTL the short straw went to the Germans, ITTL to the Poles.

OTOH, millions of Jews and Poles get to live ITTL. They may suffer economic hardship and displacement for some years, and we likely to see increased Jewish and Polish emigration overseas (and more support for Zionism), as overcrowded Poland struggles to resettle the refugees. It is likely that Poland increases presuure on its own Jewish minority to emigrate.

More to the point, you may expect that Mussolini and Horthy are inspired by the example, and get busy expelling their own Slav minorities, too.

No Polish government or party would agree to this. That means losing 90% of Polish industry and most mineral resources in addition to about 8mln Poles. As to the scheme from 1848:it includes Poznan and most of the region on the German side, with only a couple districts for Poles. Basically Poland has been reduced to a crippled German puppet.

As Keb said, the alternative was whether this, or Poland becoming again part of Russia, with all the joys of Stalinism too boot. With their choice, they get to recover political independence of a Congress Poland plus Krakow national homeland, and a sizable deal of what Hitler had annexed (e.g. Lodz, Masovia).

Do you perchance have a link to a detailed description (optimally a map) a of the 1848 partition scheme ? I have been unable to find it, and I would greatly appreciate getting it for map-making purposes.
 
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Eurofed

Banned
But who will sign such treaty?

Germany, France, Britain, the Polish GiE, and the Polish collaborationist government in Warsaw. Some face-saving compromise shall be concocted about getting both of the latter two to sign it.

And more importanly why should France and Britain be interested if they previously didn't accept far minor territorial changes?

Because Germany has shown it is serious about making a moderate peace by throwing the restoration of Czechia in the deal (and hence making amends for Hitler's betrayal of Munich). Moreover, the German leadership take over after the death of Hitler, they are not so burdened by his untrustworthiness, which had greatly hardened the Entente's diplomatic stance, and talk a more moderate diplomatic linguage. Up to the invasion of Czechoslovakia, Britain and France were unwilling to committ to the unconditional defense of polish territorial integrity, and amenable to settle it with a Munich-like compromise.

Moreover, the campaign of Poland has happened, Poland has fallen, and Germany is threatening to unload Poland to Stalin if it doesn't get a compromise. This means the Entente would have to defeat both Germany and Russia if they are serious about restoring pre-war Poland at all costs. No one but Churchill and a few firebrands are willing to do this if it can be avoided (even more so, because this Germany has no intention to attack Russia, so the Entente would face a stable German-Russian alliance if they mean to go this way). Last but not least, Germany is not asking for anything it did not own in 1793-1914. The historical precedent matters.
 

Biggy

Banned
Sorry this makes no sense for so many reasons.
For starters if Stalin is no idiot(and he isn't) he will just say he is satisfied with what SU has, and wants nothing else.
There-the whole plan goes down, and Germany doesn't reach any peace with the West(and I really don't see why suddenly West is giving away all of this, when they denied far less revisions).
Moreover, the German leadership take over after the death of Hitler, they are not so burdened by his untrustworthiness, which had greatly hardened the Entente's diplomatic stance, and talk a more moderate diplomatic linguage.
Hitler demanded Gdansk and was rejected, now they demand half of Poland, and act like Soviet Union is their puppet. That's diplomacy?
 
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Eurofed

Banned
Yeah - quite ridiculous.

Think of the alternative. It doesn't matter if the German bluff would be actually acted upon or not, the M-R Pact makes the threat credible enough. Germany keeps the 1914 borders, does the ethnic cleansing anyway, cedes the rest to Stalin, and continues the war with the Entente. At that point, even if the Entente wins, Poland would not be resoted, short of the Entente declaring war to the USSR, too. They shunned to do it when it invaded the Kresy, why they should do it now ? And which is the better alternative for the Polish nation, keeping independence in its Congress Poland core, or reverting to the pre-1914 situation as a Stalinist SSR ?

If you prefer, we may easily imagine a variant of this TTL where Churchill is somehow already PM, gets his way, refuses compromise, and the Entente declares war to Russia, too. Since Reichenau, Todt, and the Heer have no intention of going Barbarossa or declaring war to America, it becomes a WWII where the stable German-Italian-Soviet Axis curbstomps the Entente. In practice, Onkel Willie's "Greatest Mistake" TL (without the war with America).
 

Eurofed

Banned
For starters if Stalin is no idiot(and he isn't) he will just say he is satisfied with what SU has, and wants nothing else.

Would he ? Does he really expect that the Entente has the balls to make war to a German-Russian combine ? The precedents do not tell so (up to this, the Entente has been wholly passive militarily in the Phony War). If he says yes, he has the opportunity of getting a bigger share of Eastern Europe with limited risk. If worse comes to worse, the Soviet Union can net an even bigger booty in a war with a powerful ally, and "Lebensraum" Hitler is no more, in his place there are pragmatic generals and technocrats he can deal with.

There-the whole plan goes down, and Germany doesn't reach any peace with the West (and I really don't see why suddenly West is giving away all of this, when they denied far less revisions).

Hitler demanded Gdansk and was rejected, now they demand half of Poland, and act like Soviet Union is their puppet. That's diplomacy?

In the meanwhile, Germany conquered Poland. Now they are offering to restore most of it, with no bloodshed. And they act like the USSR shall be their ally of convenience, if the West refuses a compromise. Since, unlike Hitler, they have no intention to invade the USSR, they can afford to be serious about it. If they have a choice, they would prefer an alliance with the West, but if they have to, they can marry with the Bear.
 
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