Brazil alternate scenarios

[Kalwejt]

Since a recent political history of Brazil is one of the subjects of my interest, I wonder if there's anyone else to discuss possible mini-what if scenarios like:

1. Kubitschek is prevented, as there were some concerns about such a possibility, from taking office in 1955.
2. Quadors did not resigned in 1961.
3. Goulart is allowed to complete his term, no 1964 coup.
4. Neves haven't fall sick in an even of his inauguration in 1985. Thus no Sarney Presidency.
5. In 1993, with a stunning upset, Brazilian voters backs restoration of the constitutional monarchy, with giving effective power to the Prime Minister (please remember party loyalty in Congress was weak at this time and building a majority was very difficult task).
6. Due to the constututional changes Itamar Franco is allowed to and did run for a full term in 1994 (and he had +80 approvals)
7. Fernando Henrique Cardoso is not allowed to run for reelection in 1998, due to retaining one term limit.

[Blair152]

Originally Posted by Kalwejt

Since a recent political history of Brazil is one of the subjects of my interest, I wonder if there's anyone else to discuss possible mini-what if scenarios like:

1. Kubitschek is prevented, as there were some concerns about such a possibility, from taking office in 1955.
2. Quadors did not resigned in 1961.
3. Goulart is allowed to complete his term, no 1964 coup.
4. Neves haven't fall sick in an even of his inauguration in 1985. Thus no Sarney Presidency.
5. In 1993, with a stunning upset, Brazilian voters backs restoration of the constitutional monarchy, with giving effective power to the Prime Minister (please remember party loyalty in Congress was weak at this time and building a majority was very difficult task).
6. Due to the constututional changes Itamar Franco is allowed to and did run for a full term in 1994 (and he had +80 approvals)
7. Fernando Henrique Cardoso is not allowed to run for reelection in 1998, due to retaining one term limit.

Very good. I don't know that much about Brazil.

[Gonzaga]

What? Lots of Brazilian PODs? How could I have missed it?

Well, now I'm tired and drunk, so I can't really develop long answers (even more in English) but I'll try some shots.



1. Kubitschek is prevented, as there were some concerns about such a possibility, from taking office in 1955.

Considering that large sectors of the Army supported him, we could have a proper civil war. I believe that the forces supporting him would have advantage (in 1955 only the most radical leaders in the Armed Forces wanted him out).

2. Quadors did not resigned in 1961.

All kinds of crazyness ensured, the president rapidly losing support from the right (the left also, but since the episode of him awarding a medal to Che Guevara that was changing) and possible overthrown by the military. Don't forget his idea of going to war against France!

3. Goulart is allowed to complete his term, no 1964 coup.

We have an election in 1964 divided between Lacerda, Kubitschek (he wanted to run again) and Brizola. If things get too much troubled, probably Kubitschek is elected. Anyone else would mean coup attempts or leftist agitation.

4. Neves haven't fall sick in an even of his inauguration in 1985. Thus no Sarney Presidency.

Neves wouldn't be able to overcome the huge economical difficulties of the 80's. Probably his staff would be similar to Sarney's one, and the solutions they got (Plano Cruzado) or something similar would happen anyway. Also, no myth of Neves as a "political saint". I wonder though if his management of PMDB could mean that the group that left the party in order to found PSDB would stay ITTL.

5. In 1993, with a stunning upset, Brazilian voters backs restoration of the constitutional monarchy, with giving effective power to the Prime Minister (please remember party loyalty in Congress was weak at this time and building a majority was very difficult task).

ASB. Really. The way the plebiscite was campaigned there is not a chance for this happening. No political party was interested in a monarchy, and the electors didn't understand how it would work.

6. Due to the constututional changes Itamar Franco is allowed to and did run for a full term in 1994 (and he had +80 approvals)

Itamar didn't have political support from his own ministers. Probably Fernando Henrique Cardoso would still run and win. The government had popular approval, mostly due to the management of economy through Plano Real, but the image that Itamar had among the population (well, at least among the trend setters) was of an almost clown, an excentric man with a strange hair who let himself be caught with a model not wearing panties.

7. Fernando Henrique Cardoso is not allowed to run for reelection in 1998, due to retaining one term limit.

Hmm, that's hard... Serra had lost the election for mayor of São Paulo in 1996, he wasn't so important by then. Luis Eduardo Magalhaães died in March. Maybe Mario Covas? He was already suffering from his cancer, but he did run and won the election for governor of São Paulo that year despite this. But surely Lula wouldn't be president in 1998.

[Kalwejt]

1. True that Kubitschek had a support in a large sector of army. After all, that was military which deposed Luz after 2 days in power out of fear he may support a real goup.
2. War with France? Seriously? PLEASE tell more
5. Yes, I know that's a really long longshot.

[Gonzaga]

1. True that Kubitschek had a support in a large sector of army. After all, that was military which deposed Luz after 2 days in power out of fear he may support a real goup.

The only time in our history when we had a coup in order to prevent a coup. And commanded by Marshall Lott, a man who so concerned about being "right" that ordered the tanks used in the coup to stop at the red light because they nedeed to obbey the traffic rules.


2. War with France? Seriously? PLEASE tell more

It was revealed during an interview of a former governor of Amapa, Moura Cavalcanti. Here the interview in Portuguese: http://www.geneton.com.br/archives/000091.html

Basically he said that Quadros talked with him about the possibility of annexing the French Guiana, because in his words a country that goes from the Plata to the Caribbean would be respected and would dominate the world. This statement alone shows that geography wasn't Quadros' strongest point.

[leonardocruzbr]

Originally Posted by Gonzaga

Neves wouldn't be able to overcome the huge economical difficulties of the 80's. Probably his staff would be similar to Sarney's one, and the solutions they got (Plano Cruzado) or something similar would happen anyway.

I'm not so sure about this. Sure, the Plano Cruzado was theorically sound, but had a few problems such as the "gatilho salarial" (ie: if inflation were to reach 20%, all salaries would be raised in response). Maybe something like the Plano Cruzado would be done by Tancredo, but I think that his response to the signs that the plan had reached problems (such as the seasonality price factor) would be different.

By the little I've read about Tancredo Neves, economy would be one of the most important factors in his goverment. The man was a former president of the Banco do Brasil and of the BNDES (then only BNDE), and would likely be far more involved in the economic decisions of any economic committee organized to handle the raging inflation as, unlike others politicians, he could understand what they were saying and argue with them.

I think he'd raise interest so as to promote savings, as well as better control public expenses. These factors might not save the Plano Cruzado (I'm not an economist, but I'm a business graduate), but would likely mitigate the negative effects of it's failure, as well as that of subsequent plans.

[Dan1988]

Originally Posted by leonardocruzbr

I'm not so sure about this. Sure, the Plano Cruzado was theorically sound, but had a few problems such as the "gatilho salarial" (ie: if inflation were to reach 20%, all salaries would be raised in response). Maybe something like the Plano Cruzado would be done by Tancredo, but I think that his response to the signs that the plan had reached problems (such as the seasonality price factor) would be different.

Hmm, probably if the Plano Cruzado had some aspects of the OTL Plano Real, that could help.

[maverick]

Originally Posted by Gonzaga

Basically he said that Quadros talked with him about the possibility of annexing the French Guiana, because in his words a country that goes from the Plata to the Caribbean would be respected and would dominate the world. This statement alone shows that geography wasn't Quadros' strongest point.

Or you underestimate Janio Quadros and his capabilities for long-term thinking.

Hell, once you beat France, how hard can Uruguay be?

[RogueBeaver]

Even Chavez has never suggested that he would want to pick a fight with France. So Chavez is too realistic and moderate for Quadrios? Maybe because one's an intellectual and the other a retired SpecOps colonel who knows how to read an OOB...

[Gonzaga]

Originally Posted by leonardocruzbr

I'm not so sure about this. Sure, the Plano Cruzado was theorically sound, but had a few problems such as the "gatilho salarial" (ie: if inflation were to reach 20%, all salaries would be raised in response). Maybe something like the Plano Cruzado would be done by Tancredo, but I think that his response to the signs that the plan had reached problems (such as the seasonality price factor) would be different.

By the little I've read about Tancredo Neves, economy would be one of the most important factors in his goverment. The man was a former president of the Banco do Brasil and of the BNDES (then only BNDE), and would likely be far more involved in the economic decisions of any economic committee organized to handle the raging inflation as, unlike others politicians, he could understand what they were saying and argue with them.

I think he'd raise interest so as to promote savings, as well as better control public expenses. These factors might not save the Plano Cruzado (I'm not an economist, but I'm a business graduate), but would likely mitigate the negative effects of it's failure, as well as that of subsequent plans.

I see your point. But given the economical conditions of the country in the 1980's (well, in all Latin America) I really have my doubts about how successful he would be.
In the other hand, Neves probably would have better negotiations with the IMF (he even proposed an agreement with them before his inauguration). Also, if he lives, Francisco Dornelles probably wouldn't leave the Ministry of Finance, and we wouldn't have Dilson Funaro occupying his position.

Originally Posted by maverick

Or you underestimate Janio Quadros and his capabilities for long-term thinking.

Hell, once you beat France, how hard can Uruguay be?

Well, Garrastazu Medici thought that Brazil could invade and occupy Uruguay in 30 hours in 1971.

[Kalwejt]

Originally Posted by maverick

Or you underestimate Janio Quadros and his capabilities for long-term thinking.

Hell, once you beat France, how hard can Uruguay be?

I read somewhere Quadros was an excellent professor ot the portuguesse language, so how can you expect from him to excel in geography at one?

[Kalwejt]

Ok, another potential butterfly:

Assuming that Collor's brother keep his mouth shut, thus without impeachment proceeding Fernando is able to complete his term. Thus, Franco never became President, Cardoso is never named Minister of Finances and, thus, is not elected in 1994.

[The Vulture]

I'd love to see a well-written Quadros TL.

[Kalwejt]

Originally Posted by The Vulture

I'd love to see a well-written Quadros TL.

Under a POD of Janio staying in office? Well, on the other hand, Quadros actually considered running again in 1989, even receiving some encouragments, but decided against due to poor heath and endorsed Collor. Nice idea for a "by the fluke of a Gods" TL I'm thinking about.

In general, Brazilian Presidents have problem with political retirements (except perhaps FHC and the military ones). I mean look at Sarney, who's still in Senate, allied with whoever is in power at the moment, Collor (I heard he's running for Governor of Alagoas again, can someone confirm that?), Franco (Senate run).

[leonardocruzbr]

Originally Posted by Kalwejt

Collor (I heard he's running for Governor of Alagoas again, can someone confirm that?)

Yes, Ex-President and currently Senator Collor is running for the Alagoas Governorship.

[maverick]

Originally Posted by The Vulture

I'd love to see a well-written Quadros TL.

I did include several Janio Quadros-centric chapters in my last Argentinean TL, La Larga y Oscura Noche

Chapter XXXI: Janio Quadros

Chapter XXXV: Le Brésil n'est pas un pays sérieux

[nandalf]

The almost war with France was the infamous"Lobster War".

[Gonzaga]

Originally Posted by nandalf

The almost war with France was the infamous"Lobster War".

Yes, but that happened later, under president Jango. The "almost war" that Moura Cavalcanti talks about is from a supposed crazy idea of Janio Quadros.

[Dan1988]

Originally Posted by Kalwejt

I read somewhere Quadros was an excellent professor ot the portuguesse language, so how can you expect from him to excel in geography at one?

« Bebo-o porque é líquido, se fosse sólido comê-lo-ia. »

Yep, sounds like a professor to me.

[The Vulture]

Originally Posted by maverick

I did include several Janio Quadros-centric chapters in my last Argentinean TL, La Larga y Oscura Noche

Chapter XXXI: Janio Quadros

Chapter XXXV: Le Brésil n'est pas un pays sérieux

Thanks, man, I'll have to check that out. I always thought he was an interesting figure.