Challenge: As Many Manned, Sustainable Space Programs As Possible

Your challenge, with a POD anytime between 1946 and 2010, is to have as many manned, sustainable space programs as possible all running at the same time. Bonus points if more then three programs get to the Moon, and extra bonus points if at least one gets to Mars and builds a lunar base.
 
Well, obviously the Soviets could do better. If the Chinese get theirs started in the '70s (historically there were several attempts by interested Chinese figures to start a human space program, but all except Shenzhou failed due to the poor cost:rewards ratio and the limited technology and industrial base), and Europe decides to go ahead with Hermes, then that makes 4 by the year 2000. Going into the future, India could have a human space program soon, or they could have started on it sooner, thereby getting them in under the deadline. Brazil has a good location, and perhaps if it had been luckier it could have had a space program of its own, even with human flights. Japan could obviously do it if they wanted to. Iran is somewhat plausible, but does have some difficulties depending on the political situation. Israel would be tricky, but they probably have enough technical and economic strength to launch a few people into orbit, though much more would be very difficult. So there's 9 plausible programs that could have gotten off the ground (err...so to speak) by 2010. Obviously an easy trick to boost the numbers is to split up the European programs into component national agencies, but then you face bigger questions about funding and will than with the multi-national agency, particularly with lunar and Mars flights.

Now, as for going to the Moon, the only really plausible candidates are the US, USSR, and the ESA. Japan runs a close fourth, and China is a more distant fifth. India is just behind China, and Brazil, Iran, and Israel are very unlikely. The problem with the bottom 5 is they start in a worse place technologically and economically, and going to the Moon is tricky and expensive. To get Brazil to the Moon, for instance, you would really need PoDs in the 19th century to make it industrialize faster. Then it would probably be able to compete. Japan gets rich enough and starts off advanced enough that it can maybe keep up if it tries hard enough, but China and India start in a very poor position, so they'll have a tricky time of it. Obviously Brazil, Iran, and Israel are in an even poorer position than China or India due to their small comparative size and relatively poor development (for the first two, at least).

The only plausible candidates for Mars are the US and USSR, with maybe the ESA if they decide to get on it. Of those, the US is by far the most likely to be successful at getting there.

EDIT: The trick to getting more programs going is probably to have the superpowers less willing to fly non-national astronauts on their spacecraft (in particular the USSR, which saw that as a propaganda trick). That means that countries that want astronauts have to launch them themselves. Of course, that's going to be difficult...
 
You'd really have to have some major impetus for spending all that money. And most of the reasons I can think of (e.g. Stirling's inhabited Mars and Venus) would likely have the effect of getting blocs to work together.

ESA could go for a manned program - Hermes was what the Ariane 5 was built for, but by the time they paid for the booster, they didn't have money for the spaceplane... China has a manned program. Anyone else is a bit ASB.

Mars by today is probably ASB, failing some huge incentive (Stirling or Turtledove both postulate an inhabited Mars)...

Soviet and US moonbases are probably possible. China is having problems funding LEO work, and ESA never managed that. Those two could probably manage LEO, but that's about it by today's date, again, assuming no ASBs.
 
Another option is to have space opened to commercial interests sooner. The Space Treaty signed in 1957 basically banned non-governmental bodies from exploiting space; this was pushed by the Soviets who, obviously, didn't care about companies in space.

So say the Americans and British refuse to sign the non-commercialization treaty. That opens many companies to fund their OWN space programs for their own purposes.

Lockheed builds their own space shuttle in the 60s. Consolidated Edison contracts to build solar power stations. DuPont opens an orbital lab for materials research. ICI does the same. Several Japanese companies as well. So on and so forth.
 
the bigges problem is financing and politics

China early manned program died to politics during cultural revolution in 1970
Great Britan politics killt there space program and Europa ELDO program
Commonwealth of Nations show no interrest for a Space program
Administrator of NASA, Thomas O. Paine try push simultaneous in action:
the Apollo Applications Program, Space Shuttle, Space station,
Lunar base and manned Mars flight
and U.s. politics say NO WAY and Paine left NASA...
 
United States - Not much needs to be said here, does it?

Soviet Union/Russia - Again, not much needs to be said. Maybe additional allocation of funding would allow it to be more expansive, but it is as of now (and likely for a while going to be) in good times with the cancellation of the shuttle.

People's Republic of China - We would need to start the manned program in 1973, as it was originally planned. Though many claim that the political turmoil caused by the Cultural Revolution removed any such chances of it occuring, Mao could have easily made sure that the scientists within the program were untouched.

United Kingdom (Commonwealth of Nations) - The United Kingdom would likely not try to create a program on its own, rather working with its former colonies, establishing an ESA-like organization. The launch center would be placed in Guyana near the equator. It is unknown to me when exactly they would have been able to launch a manned mission; probably within the 1980-1990 time frame.

France (European Space Agency) - With the United Kingdom having formed its owned manned program apart from mainland Europe, a space race could have been launched on the European continent. While France and Germany would be the major financiers, most nations within the European Community would benefit. Launch center would be in French Guinea as is historical, with similar dates for a manned program as in the case for the United Kingdom. There is a strong possibility in this case that the French program is merged with the European program.

India - Is part of the Commonwealth of Nations program, but might also begin a domestic manned space program (not wanting to travel across the globe to the space port). Launch dates would be between 1985-1995, depending when the first British manned launch is. The dates are also not that far ahead given technical know how that would have been picked up from the Commonwealth Program.

Japan - With so many nations entering space, there is a good chance the might finally have the political will to properly fund their space agency. That may not mean that the HOPE-X shuttle is chosen, but there should be a manned flight by 2000 at the latest.

Israel - Has been discussed.

Iraq (Iraqi-Syrian Program) - Begun as a national prestige project, if the Persian Gulf War is avoided, such a program could have become a reality. Unfortunately, Israel likely would have viewed such launchers as ballistic missiles aimed at her, and Iraq was to develop nuclear weapons by 1993; therefore, the chances of the program actually living long enough to succeed are small. First manned launch somwhere between 1998-2003

Iran - Debatable. While Iran could have potentially made a manned launch by 2005, Israel would not allow the creation of the ballistic missiles required without some sort of action on her part. If Israel goes into space, Iran is sure to follow along with Iraq.

Romania - This is only if it is combined with the current, real, ARCASPACE Program that is getting ready to make an unmanned Lunar landing with its new spacecraft in 2011-2012. Even then, it requires a lot more funding.

Brazil - Again, with so many nations beginning manned space programs, the military government of Brazil likely would have begun one, with a manned launch sometime in the 1990's. Close relations between the Chinese and Brazilian programs possibly could have made such a date even earlier. However, there were problems with funding historically, but in these times, they possibly could make an exception.

Argentina - If Brazil is doing it, Argentina is likely to also be doing it. However, a launch would not be made until the late 1990's, and even then because of close relations with the Iraqi Space Program which would be established nearly a decade after that of Argentina.
 
I like Ariosto's idea, although where the money to fund all of these different programs will come from its going to be dicey.

Perhaps commercializing space earlier as Rallymodeller suggested would provide the necessary incentives to get this going.

Cold War competition drove OTL's space race, but Cold War proxy wars and the arms race also diverted a lot of resources that could have been spent on space.

My first thought is to have Stalin die early and his successor let Eastern Europe go in exchange for the states to be demilitarized. No more Cold War as such, but there'd still be competition as the Soviets try to prove the success of their system and thus get other countries to (freely) adopt Communism.
 
About Iran, if the Islamic Revolution never takes place (either through the Shah staying in power or Mossadegh not getting overthrown), Israel won't try to interfere with an Iranian nuclear program.

Heck, didn't Iran launch a satellite recently without Israeli meddling?
 
About Iran, if the Islamic Revolution never takes place (either through the Shah staying in power or Mossadegh not getting overthrown), Israel won't try to interfere with an Iranian nuclear program.

Heck, didn't Iran launch a satellite recently without Israeli meddling?
Yes, but those kind of launches don't require a heavy launcher like manned space missions. Manned missions would require missiles that could potentially both carry a nuclear warhead and reach Israel.

The Commonwealth Space program would have larger difficulties since it would be made up moreso by African states, while India would have its own program to pay for along with its contributions to the Commonwealth program. The ESA/French program, on the other hand, would possibly be more centralized, with no other space programs in existance (a budget that would amount to over 16 billion Euros today).

Therefore we would have already five "states" capable of manned spaceflight.

As for those that may have budget troubles: Iraq could have funded its program quite easily, though only if the economic sanctions are removed. Romania could use additional funding, but that company is apparently doing fine on its own. Israel has been discussed. Japan has the money to fund a proper program, but does not really have the will to use it; that would change when many of the other programs are annouced. Iran could work with the Chinese, as has been discussed in regards to the proposed Chinese Space Station, and could help with R&D costs. Brazil and Argentina are up in the air, but with military governments, anything can be done at the cost of the people.

Maybe the Iraqi Program can be expanded across the Arab Federation, so as to more properly fund it, but leave Iraq in a leadership role.
 
I like Ariosto's idea also

on China 1970s program Shuguang-1 (Dawn)
the joke is that was stop because the Maoist think it was a Plan to kill Mao Zendong !
because program was under support of Lin Biao, (he attempted overthrow Mao)
so you want Shuguang-1 fly, Lin Biao putch against Mao Zendong has to be successful
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lin_Biao
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/shuuang1.htm

Commonwealth of Nations
British Interplanetary Society proposed a launch site on Mount kenya in Kenya, Afrika
On the equator and 5000 meter high alot advance for rocket launch.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_kenya

ESA
France and Germany will build the proposed Europa III ? (first stage Ariane 1 second stage with Lox/Lh2 engine)
or build another Rocket Hardware, like French VUCAIN or German ELGO ? (modular rocket concept)
for manned fly with orginal Hermes (X-20 sizes)
Or German 1970's Lifting body proposal ERNO LB 21 Bumerang
more on this unknown program here
http://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php/topic,2890.0.html

Private:
British Interplanetary Society
so far i know they obligated to do theoretical work because of British anit-fraudulence laws.
is this true ?
ORTAG
was German private venture to build&launch very cheap Modular rockets
Its boss Lutz Kayer work befor on ELGO Rocket concept
http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/otrag.htm
 

Blair152

Banned
Your challenge, with a POD anytime between 1946 and 2010, is to have as many manned, sustainable space programs as possible all running at the same time. Bonus points if more then three programs get to the Moon, and extra bonus points if at least one gets to Mars and builds a lunar base.
Well, you'd have to move scientists into Peenemunde. Soviet scientists maybe? I don't know. Was Peenemunde in the American or Soviet ZOF?
 
Well, you'd have to move scientists into Peenemunde. Soviet scientists maybe? I don't know. Was Peenemunde in the American or Soviet ZOF?

Soviet; it was not far from Rostok if I recall.

Realizing that I have never properly anwsered the authors wishes, I now anwser. Those that would have achieved lunar landings would be the United States, the Soviet Union, Europe, the Commonwealth, the People's Republic of China, Japan, and possibly Israel (again, look at the previous discussion). India could also be included in that list, but their program might be limited to low earth orbit. Those that would establish lunar bases would be the United States, the Soviet Union, Japan, Europe, and the Commonwealth. Mars would largely become a race between the four major powers (USA , USSR , ESA , Commonwealth), though the former two would have the advantage. Therefore, either the Soviet Union or the United States could land on Mars by the 90's; the ESA and the Commonwealth could potentially land some time after the turn of the century.

Edit: A Lin Biao China would be interesting, especially regarding the many rumors about what he had planned or had been offered. However, I must agree with you; the coup must be successful for the program to remain.
 
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Well, you'd have to move scientists into Peenemunde. Soviet scientists maybe? I don't know. Was Peenemunde in the American or Soviet ZOF?

Peenemunde was in Soviet control after 4. Mai 1945
but the Germans stop operation in 21. Februar 1945
and move to Nordhausen Mittelwerk, a underground World War II factory
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mittelwerk
Mittelwerk and the KZ Dora were liberated by US army 11 April 1945
and looted factory until 26 May 1945
then hand over almost empty factory to Soviet on 5 July 1945...
 
September 1971 - Mao Zedong is overthrown in a coup led by Lin Biao. The Shuguan Program is given proper government funding, with a planned manned launch sometime in 1974.

June 1972 - The PRC's first satellite, FSW-0, is launched into orbit.

December 14th 1972 - Apollo 17 lifts off from the surface of the moon. The Apollo Program is now effectively over, having been passed over in favor of a future shuttle program by President Richard Nixon.

May 1973 - Test launch of the Shuguan capsule on the CZ-2C launcher. There are some minor issues with the equipment, but data taken from the Gemini Program allows them to rectify the said issues. The United States launches the Skylab Space Station.

October 1st 1973 - Shuguan 1 is launched into low earth orbit, making Dong Xiaohai and Lu Xiangxiao the first Kaikonauts to enter space. They make a splash landing in the Pacific. The Chinese government makes it known that it intends to make a manned lunar landing sometime in the future, as well as construct a lunar outpost.

October 2nd 1973 - Leonid Brezhnev secretly orders the restart of the N1-L3 Program, hoping to put a man on the moon before the Chinese. However, problems still are being found with the N1 rocket, and there are doubts that a manned launch upon it can be made before 1975. In the United States, Richard Nixon meets with James Fletcher and discusses the revival of the lunar program. Both agree that an American base must be established on the lunar surface before either the Chinese or the Soviets.

October 28th 1973 - Richard Nixon annouces the start of the Artemis Program; its goal is to establish a outpost upon the lunar surface for the purpose of research. The first launch however likely will not take place until 1976. Secretly, the Air Force plans to store arms in the outpost in case of attack by either the Soviet Union or China.

December 1973 - Edward Heath of the United Kingdom has become concerned over the United Kingdom's role in the Space Race, along with French President Georges Pompidou. They both begin plans to establish a centralized European Space Program.

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good TL Ariosto, but some littel error

OTL N1 cancellation came on 1974 May 2.
Mishin was removed as head of NPO Energia. Kozlov is first asked to replace him, but he prefers to stay in Samara.
with Chinese go to moon planes in 1972
Soviet keep the N1 program running, but we need Kozlov as replacement for Mishin
sick joke of history was that N1-8L had better engine and was "bug" free

plans for 1970s Soviet Moon program
N1-8L was planned for launch in the fourth quarter of 1974
after 1 or 2 successful test launches they start N1-L3M program
with longstay lunar mission in 4-6 years that around 1978-1980
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/l3m1970.htm

The NASA has one big problem in 1973
Thomas o. Paine closed the Saturn V production line in January 1970 !
(in august 1968 they canceld vehicle 516 & 517 and scrap them, since then the production line was mothballed)
so the space shuttle has to made flights to moon !
they really proposed that in 1971
http://beyondapollo.blogspot.com/2009/11/cislunar-shuttle-orbiter-1971.html
in that case Shuttle-C or Z more useful in this TL

USAF really made study for installent of the MX-Peaceceper system on Moon 1970s
next to dozens other ood proposals...
 
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I was reading the no-WWII culture timeline, and someone made the point, a world with about eight great powers using Cold War methods. Sounds perfect. Not all of them are going to be able to, but you might see space programs from some combination of the US, USSR, UK, France, Germany, Japan, and China. Heck, maybe the Czechslovaks or the Dutch want in on this too.
 
I like Ariosto's idea also

on China 1970s program Shuguang-1 (Dawn)
the joke is that was stop because the Maoist think it was a Plan to kill Mao Zendong !
because program was under support of Lin Biao, (he attempted overthrow Mao)
so you want Shuguang-1 fly, Lin Biao putch against Mao Zendong has to be successful
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lin_Biao
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/shuuang1.htm

Commonwealth of Nations
British Interplanetary Society proposed a launch site on Mount kenya in Kenya, Afrika
On the equator and 5000 meter high alot advance for rocket launch.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_kenya

ESA
France and Germany will build the proposed Europa III ? (first stage Ariane 1 second stage with Lox/Lh2 engine)
or build another Rocket Hardware, like French VUCAIN or German ELGO ? (modular rocket concept)
for manned fly with orginal Hermes (X-20 sizes)
Or German 1970's Lifting body proposal ERNO LB 21 Bumerang
more on this unknown program here
http://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php/topic,2890.0.html

Private:
British Interplanetary Society
so far i know they obligated to do theoretical work because of British anit-fraudulence laws.
is this true ?
ORTAG
was German private venture to build&launch very cheap Modular rockets
Its boss Lutz Kayer work befor on ELGO Rocket concept
http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/otrag.htm

Re: Why did the British Interplanetry Society...
If you're talking about the 1930's, unlike Goddard in the U.S, Von Braun's VfR group in Germany, & Koralev's Leningrad based GiRD in the Soviet Union, BIS, recieved no military based funding, or even patronage whatsoever...
In addition, officials in the British Civil Service, refused to believe that the idea of a liquid fuel rocket, cryogenically fuelled or not, was even possible, & effectively prevented any testing of such, by threatening to have the prospective testers arrested for breaking the terms of the Explosives Act of 1859, which dealt with the manafacture of Gunpowder, & solid fuel fireworks...
 
wat a irony
while rest of world start to experment with rockets as weapon
the Explosives Act of 1859 prevented Great Britain...

back to Ariosto's TL a look on the US hardware
in 1973 the Space Shuttle has it today shape
OTL NASA contract Boeing and others to make a Heavy Lift rocket out of the Shuttle
(NAS8-32398 aka Shuttle SDV or IHLLV)

Boeing solution:
Replace the Orbiter by cargomodule and The engine pod (to be recoverd)
payload rise from 24,400 kg wend to 91,000 kg for Class I version
Class II used The engine pod with 4 SSME and third stage with one SSME motor
brings 135,000 kg into orbit. or 50,000 kg to Moon
 
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