Could the United States/Britain win WW2 alone?
- Thread starter Hades
- Start date
Larrikin
Banned
Suppose the Ultimate Worst Case scenario arises in the Eastern front with Nazi Germany getting everything west of the Urals after defeating the USSR and the Japanese Empire making headway into China and becoming capable of making raids on Australasia.
Could the Allies Still Win?
The short answer is yes.
The long answer is yes, but it would take them longer, probably another 5 or 6 years, and cost much more in both lives and money.
Of course, but it would involve making a lot of German cities vanish. Japan would be easier to beat just given the fact that they are an island with little in the way of resources dependent upon their fleet to keep the ocean open. America pretty much eliminated the Combined Fleet single-handedly anyway, however, without the Soviets in the war, more resources will be invested in Europe.
I Blame Communism
Banned
Yes: America had vastly more resources than the Soviets and really only had time to begin exploiting them. It can eventually do everything the Soviets did, and will; but this will require either Soviet-level casualties for the WAllies in mauling their way across Europe, nuclear warfare against the Nazis, or both. It will be bloody and messy, and we wont start on the fate of Jews and Slavs. 
5 to 6 years? 5 years would see all of Germany reduced to radioactive dust. The USA was cranking out 3 A-bombs a month by August of '45, and had the wartime buildup of reactors continued, you could easily see over a hundred Bombs in '46, and more yet each year after.
That said, nuking Germany to collapse might be the only way to win the war in the West. Japan can be starved out easily enough, but Europe can't, and landing on a fortified shoreline is so difficult that it's probably impossible with a lot more German divisions on station.
Eurofed
Banned
This is of course a quite optimistic estimate, since it is rather doubtful that America could ever build nukes at a much faster pace than OTL in the mid-late 1940s. Moreover, the air defense of a victorious intact Axis shall be much more efficient than 1945 prostrated Japan. It is quite doubtful that the Western Allies could ever achieve anything more than air parity over Europe at the very most. Therefore, America shall have to deploy hundreds of nuke bombers just to have a decent chance of hitting an handful of Axis cities. And according to OTL nuclear buildup pace, America won't have several hundred nukes till 1948-49.
Last but not least, a victorius Axis shall have the ability to hit British cities at leisure with nerve gas and quite likely "dirty bombs" too missiles since 1944-45. That makes for a rather effective MAD deterrent.
Using nukes tactically to break through the conventional defenses of the Axis has in all likelihood better chances of success than nuclear bombing of the cities, but it still faces the problem of Axis WMD missile retaliation on British cities.
Not to mention that an intact Italy shall be able to complete the modernization of its military since 1943, and shall hence be a rather bigger asset for the Axis and tougher opponent for the Allies.
Riain
Banned
One thing about German victory in Europe but US nuke scenario is that it ignores the great power of Germany to fight a counter air war with the US and set up mutual detterence. By the time the US is ready to A bomb Germany Germany will have the full gamut of wet-dream weapons that never got the resources they needed but still make us salivate. With the USSR defeated these weapons will get a good chunk of the resources they need to make them successful.
Personally I could envisage V2 and A234 evolutions being used against the B29 airfields, and Me262 and Ta152 fighting for air superiority over western Germany. I could also envisage Germany threatening nerve gas attacks on a large scale against Britain and a small scale against the US if they are nuked. It's not a simple 'nuke em' scenario.
Personally I could envisage V2 and A234 evolutions being used against the B29 airfields, and Me262 and Ta152 fighting for air superiority over western Germany. I could also envisage Germany threatening nerve gas attacks on a large scale against Britain and a small scale against the US if they are nuked. It's not a simple 'nuke em' scenario.
First, it is not at all optimistic. That bomb production was greatly scaled back with the end of the war is fact, as was the termination of expansion plans. Even going strictly from Grove's no expansion production schedule, we are talking 40-50 bombs by the end of 46, which is more than enough to bring Germany to its knees.
And breaking the Luftwaffe is precisely the kind of thing for which the USA's massive industrial advantage can be most easily brought to bear. The idea that Germany can maintain even vague air parity into 1946 is absurd. Not to mention that the B-36 could be entering service in 46, which flies too high for any contemporary fighters to intercept.
That just ends the war even faster, since Germany could never hope to compete in a WMD duel, not with allied aircraft controlling the skies and fighter bombers smashing any missile launch site after only a few shots. Considering the horrible accuracy of those missiles, and the unpredictable performance of nerve gas (no, Germany can't field any dirty bombs of any use), Britain would only suffer limited losses before Germany's industrial centers were radioactive ruins, and everything else is covered in mustard gas.
See, this is what's bad about Bill Cameron being banned. He's the best at pointing out exactly why those wet dream weapons were just wet dream weapons. The USSR had little to do with it. Hopefully someone else (Calbear, maybe?) will step in and take over that task.
There is a very good reason for the small number of nukes the US built OTL. That was because with the war over and massive disarmament by the western powers they virtually stopped for about 5 years.This time around production will continue until the war is over. Suspect that xchen08's suggestion of 3 a month may be somewhat high but they will produce enough by mid-late 46 at the latest to critically cripple Germany.
It will be much more efficient than that of Japan, at least until the US air force annihilates it as occurred historically. Having less commitment in the east because somehow the SU collapse will delay this but not by much. The Nazis just didn't have the industrial and organisational base to match the western powers in air production. Not to mention that they will still have shortages of oil. Limiting both operation and training.
That is a distinct danger, although if the Germans start using gas they will get a serious retaliation. The allies may not have nerve gas but they will have far more capacity to retaliate. It is a possibility that the allies could be deterred from launching nuclear strikes but then would they be aware of the German capacity until they themselves launch their 1st nuclear attack?
I think this is highly unlikely. Even without the knowledge of fall-out problems, the limited number of nukes that will be available and their destructive power will make their use against industrial/urban targets almost certain. It might occur if the Germans managed to contest the air space over occupied Europe but I can see that as highly unlikely given the evidence.
It will have more resources without the losses on the eastern front OTL but it doesn't have the industrial base to match the major players. Also, unless the SU falls in 41, the Axis will lose N Africa in 42/43 anyway and the allies will be attacking Italy shortly afterwards.
Steve
Riain
Banned
I didn't know that Bill was banned, but I do know that he and I had 'robust' discussions about the Jumo 004 engine. The crux of the argument was that he believed German jets to be fundamentally flawed because the Soviets couldn't get the Jumo 004 and HeS 011 to work postwar so the MiG 15 was Nene powered. My contention was that the Jumo 004 was a sound design which was made much less than it could be by design compromises forced onto it by poor materials availability at the time it was to go into production. Nothing Bill showed me was able to change the conclusions I had come to in the course of my own research, much to his chagrin.
Anyway, the decisions which ruined the wet-dream weapons were taken in about 1943, as Kursk failed and the Soviet counter-offensive was undertaken. In a Soviet defeat scenario these decisions wouldn't have been taken because the Soviets would be either beaten or on the ropes.
Aside from the difficulty (in the 1940's read impossibility) of putting chemical weapons into ballistic missiles, or the fact that Luftwaffe '46 really is nothing more than some pretty sketches thrown together, not a plausible or conceivable air force, it's important to note that Germany won't fire chemical weapons at Britain because if it does, Britain will kill tens of millions of Germans with its very deadly (and unmatched) stocks of Anthrax.
So the answer is, yes: America and Great Britain will win once their opponents' major cities are radioactive rubble.
So the answer is, yes: America and Great Britain will win once their opponents' major cities are radioactive rubble.
Ahem, not high at all. 3 per month was the actual production rate in August 1945.
See: http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB162/72.pdf
The only question is how much that can be improved with the more efficient post-Fatman plutonium bombs and any new reactors.
Dan Reilly The Great
Banned
I'll take a crack at the wonder weapons.
1.) the Me262 although pretty sweet on paper was very short ranged IIRC, and required very long runways which were easy to spot and allowed the allies to bomb them into uselessness and leave fighters to loiter around the airfields so that they could shoot them down on return. Also if they get produced in significant number the US and UK step up shooting star/meteor production, which mitigates the german advantage mostly.
2.) the Amerika Bomber would only serve to waste german resources and piss off the US, at most it probably gets the US to seriously step up B-36 production which once they iron out the kinks spells doom for the reich.
3.) super tanks are a non starter that do not need much discussion here, let me just say the Allies can only pray that the Germans start building these en-masse
4.) Chemical tipped ICBM's are not entirely practical, they can't be launched in large enough barrages against the US, and there is a good chance it takes the germans half a decade or more just to get a reliable prototype, without a working a bomb to mount on them the ICBM's are about as strategically important as the V-2 was.
5.) Nazi A-bombs are absolutely ASB without a major POD before the war and some severe luck. Even with that until defeating the USSR the Germans aren't going to have the industrial capacity to build them until well after the US has several if not many of their own.
6.) the Type XXI U-boat might have an effect, but most likely not enough to tip the scales in Germany's favor.
7.) German guided AA missiles are possible, as I recall they were close to deployment by the end of the war OTL. However I'm not sure if they will be able to knock out a B-36, as the missiles will most likely be designed with B-29's and B-17's in mind.
Finally in this situation the German situation will not be nearly as dire as it was OTL, as such the drive to fund and develope the wonderweapons won't exist, as such their development get's delayed several years most likely.
1.) the Me262 although pretty sweet on paper was very short ranged IIRC, and required very long runways which were easy to spot and allowed the allies to bomb them into uselessness and leave fighters to loiter around the airfields so that they could shoot them down on return. Also if they get produced in significant number the US and UK step up shooting star/meteor production, which mitigates the german advantage mostly.
2.) the Amerika Bomber would only serve to waste german resources and piss off the US, at most it probably gets the US to seriously step up B-36 production which once they iron out the kinks spells doom for the reich.
3.) super tanks are a non starter that do not need much discussion here, let me just say the Allies can only pray that the Germans start building these en-masse
4.) Chemical tipped ICBM's are not entirely practical, they can't be launched in large enough barrages against the US, and there is a good chance it takes the germans half a decade or more just to get a reliable prototype, without a working a bomb to mount on them the ICBM's are about as strategically important as the V-2 was.
5.) Nazi A-bombs are absolutely ASB without a major POD before the war and some severe luck. Even with that until defeating the USSR the Germans aren't going to have the industrial capacity to build them until well after the US has several if not many of their own.
6.) the Type XXI U-boat might have an effect, but most likely not enough to tip the scales in Germany's favor.
7.) German guided AA missiles are possible, as I recall they were close to deployment by the end of the war OTL. However I'm not sure if they will be able to knock out a B-36, as the missiles will most likely be designed with B-29's and B-17's in mind.
Finally in this situation the German situation will not be nearly as dire as it was OTL, as such the drive to fund and develope the wonderweapons won't exist, as such their development get's delayed several years most likely.
Yes. They force German surrender shortly after the 6th August 1945.
Japan a touch later.
Post war things look a lot different as the Soviet Union (assuming it still exists) takes years to get back into shape and doesn't puppet Eastern Europe.
I’ve noticed people have been talking ‘’hardware’’ I.E industry and weapons I dont see much talk of ''software'' I.E morale and political will.
I stongly doubt that the US public wil be willing to face the hard slog that fighting through Nazi Europe would in entail in the long term. We often tend to forget just how much effort the Germans sent to the Eastren Front in sheer terms of manpower and effort. All those millions of battled hardened troops would now be facing the US-British Armies, which struggled to make headway against whatever Germans could scrape to greater in 1944. You think they can do better with the bulk of the Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe facing them because I dont.
Hitler dosnt need doomsday Wweapons as the war drags on with no end in sight and a direct invasion of Europe a very dubious prospect without the U.S.S.R to tie down the vast majority of Axis forces. There is a good chance that the WA will sue for peace at some point.
I stongly doubt that the US public wil be willing to face the hard slog that fighting through Nazi Europe would in entail in the long term. We often tend to forget just how much effort the Germans sent to the Eastren Front in sheer terms of manpower and effort. All those millions of battled hardened troops would now be facing the US-British Armies, which struggled to make headway against whatever Germans could scrape to greater in 1944. You think they can do better with the bulk of the Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe facing them because I dont.
Hitler dosnt need doomsday Wweapons as the war drags on with no end in sight and a direct invasion of Europe a very dubious prospect without the U.S.S.R to tie down the vast majority of Axis forces. There is a good chance that the WA will sue for peace at some point.
First, only one person in this thread has suggested a straightforward slog to victory. Everyone else has picked up on the fact that this is one of those rare instances where a single technology, the atomic bomb, can be completely decisive. Second, the bulk of the Luftwaffe, including essentially all its front line fighters were facing the Western Allies, and were annihilated by January 45. Even with a bit more aircraft that no Eastern Front allows, the Luftwaffe will be destroyed well before nukes come into play, particularly as the targeted destruction of fuel production continues. The Allied leadership has no reason to quit when the very upper levels know full well by early 45 that the Manhattan project is a success, and public will would not have significantly faltered by the time the first bombs fall, and it becomes obvious that victory is only a matter of time. All those veteran troops from the East (those that aren't tied up in endless guerrilla warfare) mean nothing to the air war, have little mobility thanks to fuel limits (and mechanized/armor units moving in the open is just asking for a pounding), and will collapse with the collapse of the German infrastructure.
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