Some court-watchers believe that had Reagan flipped the order in which he nominated Bork and Scalia, nominating Bork for Rehnquist's seat and Scalia for Powell's seat, he could have gotten both confirmed. Bork - who had a longer paper trail and a more established conservative record - would have faced a Republican Senate.
What are the effects on the Court and on American politics if Robert Bork is a justice on the Supreme Court?
My thoughts: if we assume that George H.W. Bush still wins the '88 election, it's possible that Clarence Thomas' fails to be confirmed, as enough Democrats flip to opposition due to the court's even harder-right tilt.
IF Thomas does get confirmed, then Roe v. Wade is likely outright overruled in Planned Parenthood v. Casey in 1992. The 1992 election focuses much more heavily on abortion rights, and throughout the 1990s, elections at the state level focus heavily on abortion rights. During Clinton's first two years, there is substantial effort to enact a federal abortion rights law. If it succeeds, it becomes the subject of numerous court challenges and a key point of contention in the 1994 midterms. The Republican Congresses of 1995-2001 repeatedly attempt to pass bills overturning the abortion law, which are either stalled by Senate filibusters or vetoed by Clinton. Efforts continue during the Bush years, with attempts to overturn the law again stalled by Democratic filibusters.
Bork, for his part, may step down between 2005 and 2007 to allow George W. Bush to confirm his successor. If he stays on the bench, then there emerges a strong chance that Bork will be replaced by Obama. He doesn't voluntarily resign, but at 83 years of age in 2010, the odds are high that Obama will name his replacement if he wins a second term.
What are the effects on the Court and on American politics if Robert Bork is a justice on the Supreme Court?
My thoughts: if we assume that George H.W. Bush still wins the '88 election, it's possible that Clarence Thomas' fails to be confirmed, as enough Democrats flip to opposition due to the court's even harder-right tilt.
IF Thomas does get confirmed, then Roe v. Wade is likely outright overruled in Planned Parenthood v. Casey in 1992. The 1992 election focuses much more heavily on abortion rights, and throughout the 1990s, elections at the state level focus heavily on abortion rights. During Clinton's first two years, there is substantial effort to enact a federal abortion rights law. If it succeeds, it becomes the subject of numerous court challenges and a key point of contention in the 1994 midterms. The Republican Congresses of 1995-2001 repeatedly attempt to pass bills overturning the abortion law, which are either stalled by Senate filibusters or vetoed by Clinton. Efforts continue during the Bush years, with attempts to overturn the law again stalled by Democratic filibusters.
Bork, for his part, may step down between 2005 and 2007 to allow George W. Bush to confirm his successor. If he stays on the bench, then there emerges a strong chance that Bork will be replaced by Obama. He doesn't voluntarily resign, but at 83 years of age in 2010, the odds are high that Obama will name his replacement if he wins a second term.
