INLA Kills Thatcher in 1979

[black angel]

so in OTL the Irish National Liberation Army killed Margaret Thatcher's close friend, and former campaign manager, the Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Airey Neave with a car bomb in his car as he exited the House of Common's parking garage, but what if the INLA has targeted Neave's boss, than Leader of the Opposition Thatcher, blowing her up on March the 30th 1979, just two days after Callaghan Government fell, who becomes the Tory leader? can they win with new leadership and only 2 months till the election? and what is the fall out for Northern Ireland?

[iainbhx]

Originally Posted by black angel

so in OTL the Irish National Liberation Army killed Margaret Thatcher's close friend, and former campaign manager, the Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Airey Neave with a car bomb in his car as he exited the House of Common's parking garage, but what if the INLA has targeted Neave's boss, than Leader of the Opposition Thatcher, blowing her up on March the 30th 1979, just two days after Callaghan Government fell, who becomes the Tory leader? can they win with new leadership and only 2 months till the election? and what is the fall out for Northern Ireland?

The House was still sitting and had not been dissolved at that point. I would suspect that it would not be dissolved at that point - an accomodation would be reached.

[black angel]

Originally Posted by iainbhx

The House was still sitting and had not been dissolved at that point. I would suspect that it would not be dissolved at that point - an accomodation would be reached.

they lost a Vote of No Confidence on March 28th.

[Derek Jackson]

At that time the Conservative PARTy CHOSE its leader by Members of parliament

I think that Tebbit would have won

He would have won the general electionby a bigger margin than otl

[black angel]

Originally Posted by Derek Jackson

At that time the Conservative PARTy CHOSE its leader by Members of parliament

I think that Tebbit would have won

He would have won the general electionby a bigger margin than otl

doubtful, he wasn't in the Shadow Cabinet in '79 (didn't get in till '81) as Deputy Leader William Whitelaw will take her place till an election for a replacement, a good footing for an election, if not him, Shadow Chancellor Geoffrey Howe, though... Irish terrorism...... knows how to run an campaign.... maybe Neave himself, or Keith Joseph

[iainbhx]

Originally Posted by black angel

they lost a Vote of No Confidence on March 28th.

The House of Commons was not dissolved until the 5th of April. Losing a Vote of Confidence does not dissolve the House, that can only be done by the Crown. This delay is perfectly normal as the Government "washes up" legislation. With something as serious as the loss of the Leader of the Opposition - it would be perfectly normal for a further delay to be added.

[Charles James Fox]

If Thatcher is killed, Whitelaw would be the ideal and logical choice as her successor, he's the perfect person to provide the Conservative party with stability and reassurance at a difficult time. It's worth remembering that there was a lot of dissatisfaction with Thatcher's leadership in Opposition (and indeed in government until the Falklands), so there probably won't be a significant backlash against Whitelaw.

[black angel]

Originally Posted by iainbhx

The House of Commons was not dissolved until the 5th of April. Losing a Vote of Confidence does not dissolve the House, that can only be done by the Crown. This delay is perfectly normal as the Government "washes up" legislation. With something as serious as the loss of the Leader of the Opposition - it would be perfectly normal for a further delay to be added.

would they delay though? its not like she had a heart-attack, in the US at lest culturally the reaction would be "terrorists have tried to disrupt our system, we must carry on as if everything is normal or they won" also legally they can't delay for very long, the government would have faced a fixed election date in the fall, and Losing a Vote of Confidence does mean there is no government, how long can they govern with out a mandate?

[iainbhx]

Originally Posted by black angel

doubtful, he wasn't in the Shadow Cabinet in '79 (didn't get in till '81) as Deputy Leader William Whitelaw will take her place till an election for a replacement, a good footing for an election, if not him, Shadow Chancellor Geoffrey Howe, though... Irish terrorism...... knows how to run an campaign.... maybe Neave himself, or Keith Joseph

I would generally agree with your comments except probably not the Mad Monk.

[Enigmajones]

The British press goes crazy over the new Communist force in Northern Ireland, while the Republican community sigh in an expression of disbelief.

[iainbhx]

Originally Posted by black angel

would they delay though? its not like she had a heart-attack, in the US at lest culturally the reaction would be "terrorists have tried to disrupt our system, we must carry on as if everything is normal or they won" also legally they can't delay for very long, the government would have faced a fixed election date in the fall, and Losing a Vote of Confidence does mean there is no government, how long can they govern with out a mandate?

The Government remains the Government until the Crown asks someone else to form a Government after the results of the next election. It's one of those quirks, MPs cease to be MPs when parliament is dissolved, however, Ministers being Ministers of the Crown remain Ministers. The Prime Minister remains the Prime Minister even after losing a vote in confidence.

Great Britain is not the United States and 1979 was a more sedate time in politics than now and even now I doubt if the election would go ahead as scheduled. I would imagine there would be a delay of one month.

[black angel]

Originally Posted by iainbhx

I would generally agree with your comments except probably not the Mad Monk.

well I think Whitelaw is most likely but Neave, did ask Joeseph to run against Heath in '75, (also Whitelaw) before finding Thatcher, and Joseph wrote much of the 1979 manifesto, he had a long record (in the cabinets of Macmillan, Douglas-Home, and Heath) and clearly Thatcher's boy which would be a boast her death would likely pump the right-wing of the party up and force moderates to shut up and keep their head down, nothing like violent death to make one a blameless martyr

[black angel]

Originally Posted by iainbhx

I would imagine there would be a delay of one month.

so June rather than May?

[iainbhx]

Originally Posted by black angel

so June rather than May?

Yes, the local elections would go ahead as normal in May, obviously with slightly different results due to the differential turnout. June would allow the Conservative Party time to select a new leader. It would probably be the first Thursday in June.

[iainbhx]

Originally Posted by black angel

well I think Whitelaw is most likely but Neave, did ask Joeseph to run against Heath in '75, (also Whitelaw) before finding Thatcher, and Joseph wrote much of the 1979 manifesto, he had a long record (in the cabinets of Macmillan, Douglas-Home, and Heath) and clearly Thatcher's boy which would be a boast her death would likely pump the right-wing of the party up and force moderates to shut up and keep their head down, nothing like violent death to make one a blameless martyr

There's just three problems with Sir Keith Joseph.

1) His 1974 speech at Edgbaston which had such phrases as who were first pregnant in adolescence in social classes 4 and 5 and The balance of our population, our human stock is threatened. Given the need to get the working class Tory vote out in the northern seats (yes, the Tories had seats in Manchester and Liverpool in those days), that was a killer phrase.

2) The election would not be by the 1979 intake (or even the 1983 intake) who were more to to the right. Joseph had maybe 60 supporters in the Party. As the Conservatives already had the wobbles about Mrs Thatcher, I can't see them reselected from the right.

3) Joseph's problem was that he was an appalling public speaker and lacked the self-confidence that as an intellectual he should have had. Probably the most important Conservative thinker of the decade, but not really Prime Ministerial material.