The Matter of Schleswig

[Darkest]

Copenhagen, 1863. Denmark never proclaims Schleswig as an integral part of the Danish state.

What happens?

It was this act that started the Second Schlewig War between the Prussians/Austrians and the Danish. The Prussians never get angry at the Austrians because of land disagreements, hence no Prussian-Austrian war. Austria stays strong. No World War I.

Or at least I think that would happen.

What if the Second Schleswig War never occurs, following the POD listed above? What would happen, in your opinion? What would happen if Europe never had a Great War?

[Redbeard]

There will be unrest in Denmark. The annexation was the result of pressure from Danish nationalists, and if no Government action towards Slesvig is taken a rebellion is not to be excluded, which again could fast become an international matter. The Slesvig-Holsten matter was regulated in the London agreement of 1852, which underlined that Slesvig and Holstein were ruled as Duchies by the Danish royal house but were not to be separated (status quo since 15th century). It was an old and popular issue in Denmark to include Slesvig in the Kingdom.

I doubt if the Austro-Prussian war will be avoided by no S-H war, the rivalry over who was to be master of Germany was too fundamental. But short of an important war experience Prussia might come out defeated this time. I could also imagine Denmark following Austria into the war against Prussia. The Royal Danish Army was 50.000 reasonably well trained men, which the Prussians now will have to cover - and without aid from the Austrians as in OTL. By 1866 the Danes might even be equipped with rifled artillery and breech loaders.

If S-H and Denmark stay out this time the area will still be a constant troublezone, with Danes in Slesvig wanting "anschluss" to Denmark and Germans in Holsten the same, but to Germany (or probably wanting an independent German state). By late 19th or early 20th century we'll probably have something resembling civil war, and the question is who from outside is first tempted to intervene - but we certainly have potential for starting WWI. Unless there is a major war with an all-out German victory the S-H question is likely to end in a partition of S-H after a new international conference. Slesvig to Denmark and Holstein as an (semi)independent German state. Without the German rule from 1864-1920 (and ethnic cleansing) the border is probably going to be 30-40km more to the south.

Spared of the defeat in 1864 Denmark will follow a more active and interventionist foreign policy seeking allies anywhere enemies of Prussia/Germany can be found. This may lead to disasters for Denmark, but for Prussia it is also troublesome - instead of a two front war they now have a 2 1/2 front war. Prussia /Germany will also have to divert significant naval forces to the Baltic, to stop Russian armies from operating from Denmark. On the other hand a Germany navally occupied with watching the Russians might not alarm the British as much - they might stay neutral. If Russia stays intact after 1914 the accelerating Russian industrialisation and huge naval programme will make things difficult for Germany. They may soon need active support from GB, but that requires smarter German diplomats and a less repulsive Kaiser.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

[carlton_bach]

I wonder whether the war would not happen anyway, given the way the political right in Prussia and other German states instrumentalised Nationalism for its own purposes. BUt you are right, it might not. I doubt it would lead to Austria staying as strong as it was - they had enough trouble in Italy as things were, and the rivalry with Prussia is not going to go away. But without the flashpoint, and without the elation of 'short sharp victory', who knows how and where this conflict manifests? Maybe the Bavarian succession following Ludwig II's insanity? Prussia has a harder time of, that is for sure - their window of oportunity is rather small.

[Redbeard]

Originally Posted by carlton_bach

I wonder whether the war would not happen anyway, given the way the political right in Prussia and other German states instrumentalised Nationalism for its own purposes. BUt you are right, it might not. I doubt it would lead to Austria staying as strong as it was - they had enough trouble in Italy as things were, and the rivalry with Prussia is not going to go away. But without the flashpoint, and without the elation of 'short sharp victory', who knows how and where this conflict manifests? Maybe the Bavarian succession following Ludwig II's insanity? Prussia has a harder time of, that is for sure - their window of oportunity is rather small.

There certainly would be many in Prussia and Germany for intervention in the S-H matter, no matter what Denmark does. Remove Bismarck, and they'll go beserk. But without the Danish breach of the London agreement the Prussian case would be much weaker, and probably subject of British intervention - a "we are not amused" and that war is over and probably ending in a partition. In that context Danish 19th century diplomacy and strategy is a tough rival with German 20th century for the "Most Stupid" title.

About the Austrian part it is interesting that for instance the French expected an Austrian victory - the Austrian alliance was numerically far superior, but the Prussians had a very lucky hand in uniting their armies in the exact right time and place. In OTL the Italians were thrashed, both on land (Custozza) and at sea (Lizza), but benefitted from the Austrian defeat to the Prussians. Short of a Prussian victory, or a A-P war at all, the Italians are unlikely to gain anything. Without Austrian defeats to outside enemies the Hungarians are under control too.

Anyway German nationalism was out of the bottle, but without clear Prussian leadership much more unfocussed. I guess Napoleon III, if not stopped by a Prussian victory over him, sooner or later will be overwhelmed by inspiration from his forfather in intervening in Germany. That will only reinforce German nationalism, it could end up rather hot...

Regards

Steffen Redbeard