European colonization with a successful HRE, Angevin Empire, and Iberia

Eurofed

Banned
I offer you the following map and TL sketch, CE 1500:

5ocg2d.png


PoD is the survival of both Frederick I Barbarossa and his son Henry VI Hohenstaufen to the completion of the Third Crusade and a successful long reign respectively. This creates a strong basis for the gradual centralization of the HRE and sees it turned into a hereditary monarchy at the very end of the 12nd century. Their talented scion Frederick II is educated to complete the basic job of empire-building, which he does over his own decades-long equally successful reign. Some intermittent civil wars in Germany and Italy see the resistance of particularist nobles and city-states crushed and gradually snuffed out, and the the decisive defeat of the theocratic Papacy. Another long reign by his son Conrad IV, in a dynasty notable for the longevity of its talented rulers, sees the Western Roman/Carolingian Empire definitely being reborn in the eyes of its subjects as a centralized monarchy spanning Germany, Italy, Austria, Bohemia-Moravia, the Low Countries, Burgundy, Switzerland, Slovenia, and Dalmatia, its armies swelled by the manpower of Germany and Italy and its coffers filled by the taxation flowing from the trade centers of Flanders, northern Germany, Franconia and Palatinate, Bohemia, northern Italy, and Sicily. A couple of powerful new monarchical states, however, arise in Western Europe and an ancient one is reborn in the East that would question the imperial primacy of the HRE.

Butterflies arising from this change:

-The national unification of France is wrecked, and the fortunes of its neighbor states boosted, when the HRE interferes in the struggles between the Kings of France and the Angevin Empire on one side, and Aragon, France, and the Counts of Tolouse, on the other side. This results in the Plantagenet dynasty successfully uniting England and their feudal possessions and conquests in northern and western France into a unitary state. The Angevin Empire is also able to affirm its supremacy over Ireland and a Scotland that lacks strong backers on the other side of the English Channel.

-Aragon, not the Capetingian French monarchy, annexes Languedoc and Provence during the confused mess of suppressing the Cathar heresy. Aragon is able to capitalize this added power into gradually uniting the other Iberian Christian states under its control during the successful Reconquista, and to seize Corsica and Sardinia. Sicily and southern Italy, however, remain wholly outside its grasp, due to the strong grip of the HRE on Italy.

-The kingdom of France is shrunken down to an unhappy, landlocked buffer state (and occasional recurrent battlefield) between the imperial behemoths of the HRE, the Angevins, and Iberia. In the 14th century, it suffers a dynastic crisis, and after an inconclusive war between the three great powers at its borders, it is eventually partitioned between the Angevins and the HRE. Iberia swaps its share with Britain in exchange for southern Aquitaine.

-The kingdoms of Denmark, Norway, and Sweden are pushed into forming a real union (the so-called Kalmar Union) for mutual protection from their powerful neighbors.

-The strength of Britain, Iberia, and the HRE leads to a successful new round of Crusades, to a revitalization of the Byzantine Empire once the Islamic pressure is lifted off its back, and to an expansion of the Reconquista in North Africa. As a result, Iberia conquers North Africa. The HRE seizes Eygpt and Nubia. The Byzantine Empire recovers full control of Anatolia, Greece, Macedonia, and Bulgaria, and is later able to conquer the Levant, Armenia, and Mesopotamia. Serbia and Wallachia-Moldavia become vassal states of the Byzantine Empire.

-The strength of the HRE makes its expansion in Eastern Europe highly successful: besides the OTL achievements, Greater Poland, Masovia, Prussia, and western Hungary are assimilated and annexed to the HRE. The rest of Poland and Hungary are turned into vassal states of the HRE (Poland getting reunified in the process) and opened up for gradual assimilation by the Empire.

- Mongol invasion of Europe does not really reach further than Poland and Hungary, and the Tartar onslaught mostly ravages the Middle East for a while, further weakening Islamic states against the Crusader-Byzantine assault. After the Mongol Empire breaks apart, support by the HRE and the Byzantines allows Muscowy to swiftly oust the Golden Horde and build an empire in European Russia, which later expands to northern Caucasus, western Siberia, and most of Kazakhstan. By a parallel process, a Christianized Prussian tribe (TTL Lithuania equivalent) is able to expand and create a state spanning the Baltic lands, White Russia, Ukraine, and the former Khanate of Crimea.

-The Papacy never really recovers from the crushing defeat it suffers in its power struggles with the HRE and the Angevin Empire, and its ill-starred alliance with France. Britain, Iberia, and the HRE keep fighting to assert their control over the Papal Curia, stalemating each other, but further wrecking Papal power in the process for good. The Holy See gets wholly expelled from Italy, and eventually becomes an ineffectual ceremonial shadow of itself and a puppet of Iberia, with an alternating residence in Avignon and Santiago de Compostela, mostly used by the Iberian kings as a minor propaganda prop for the Reconquista. The Western monarchies eventually turn to propping up the power of the national episcopates and keeping a tight leash over them, in order to affirm secular control over their respective national clergy. Latin Church becomes quite decentralized, with the clergy of each nation being governed by the local episcopates, subordinate to the secular governments. The Ecumenic Council once again becomes the only authoritative body for the whole Church. This allows an uneasy reconciliation between the Latin and Greek Churches, although a sizable deal of distrust lingers. The success of the Crusades, and the rebirth of the Byzantine Empire, has however narrowed the distance between West and East somewhat.

-It is currently CE 1500. Although Europe spent a remarkable degree of time ad effort recovering from the Black Death, as well as from the wars that redrew its map, it seems to have regained some degree of stability, under the hegemony of the great monarchies of the HRE, Britain, Iberia, and the Byzantine Empire in an uneasy equilibrium. Wealth is filling the coffers of the kings and emperors, from improved control of the trade routes with the East and the political stability of the centralized monarchies dispelling feudal chaos, which fosters the growth of the urban trading elites. The lore plundered from the conquest of the Middle East and improved cultural exchange with Asia are fueling a huge humanistic Renaissance of cultural, scientific, philosophical, literary, and technological knowledge, with a mix of classical Greco-Roman achievements rediscovered, wholly new European ones developed, and a spread of ideas and techniques from India and China.

Despite somewhat improved access to the trade routes with Asia, the surviving Islamic states still remain a substantial obstacle, the European elites apparently share an endless appetite for the goods of the East, and trade competition between the great powers is raging. All of that all drives the search for new and better trade routes with Asia, which is made possible by advances in European naval technology providing truly Ocean-worthy ships for long travels. Intrepid explorers have now circumnavigated Africa and found a route to India and China, while others have brought back amazing news of a new landmass to the west of immense size and wealth.

The European powers appear surely posed to unleash their conquest of the world. But which pattern shall the European colonial empires take in this TL ? It is open for discussion.

(Note: for the sake of discussion, the map comes with handy blank spaces to mark plausible European colonial empires in the Americas and Asia, as well as native Asian states besides China, Korea, and Japan).
 
Last edited:

Deleted member 1487

A couple of concerns: why doesn't the Golden Horde strike West into Eastern Europe? Also, why would the HRE not be focused on expanding East and how did the HRE avoid civil wars over the centralized Monarchy and hereditary Emperor title? Also how does the HRE finally crush the papacy and not take it over for its own purposes??
 
If the Mongols didn't invade Europe, why isn't the Kievan Rus still around? Moscow only became the center of East Slav power after the Mongols smashed Kiev and took over everything east of Poland.

Edit: Heck, the East Slavs only split into the Russian/Belorussian/Ukrainian groups after the Mongols busted up the Kievan Rus.
 
I don't think that Iceland at the time had anywhere near enough people to be a viable independent state; also, it was considered part of Norway, so if Norway is part of the Kalmar Union, then why isn't Iceland?

Ignoring that, I think that the initial claims largely depend on whose explorers land where. After that, it depends on who puts the most effort into their colonies. I think that the Kalmars are probably going to end up with much of the OTL French empire since they are closest to it. If all of the major powers reach the Americas at roughly the same time, we could see the major native states survive for longer if they have smart rulers who can play the Europeans of against each other. Eventually, though, they are going to fall. If all of the major powers are exploring at the same time, then I doubt that one power is going to replicate the OTL success of the Spanish conquistadores. A much more diverse colonization of the Americas is likely. The Caribbean is going to be a perpetual warzone for certain. I can see the HRE expansion being driven by the Dutch, which could lead to a large trading empire for the HRE and little in the way of direct control. After all, they have to keep most of their forces in Europe due to their position, so they will have little to spare for extensive colonization. We will probably see overall less European populations in the Americas due to all of the major colonizing powers having extensive commitments in Europe, taking up resources that would otherwise be spent on colonial expansion.
 
-The strength of the HRE causes the German expansion in Eastern Europe to experience a high degree of success: Greater Poland is Germanized and annexed to the HRE, the Teutonic Order gains control of Courland, Lithuania, and White Russia. Poland and Hungary are turned into vassals of the HRE. Likewise, Serbia and Moldavia-Wallachia become vassals of the Byzantine Empire.
12th century PoD would butterfly away Teutonic Knights in Prussia. With HRE expanding east, Duke Konrad of Masovia (with ambitions to unite Poland, rivalling silesian Piasts) will have other concerns than Prussians, and definitely won`t invite Teutons or give them Chałmno land.
 

Eurofed

Banned
A couple of concerns: why doesn't the Golden Horde strike West into Eastern Europe?

Do you mean Batu's Horde ? Well, they invade Eastern Europe but don't invade Western Europe, more or less for the same serendipity reasons that made them skip an in-depth strike in Europe IOTL, plus plausible handwavey butterflies that make them later realize (accurately) that the Middle East was a richer target.

Also, why would the HRE not be focused on expanding East

But it is. The HRE has wholly Germanized and absorbed Greater Poland, and Lesser Poland, Masovia, and Hungary-Croatia-Transylvania has been wholly vassallized and are experiencing gradual assimilation. To a lesser degree, the Teutonic Order is a vassal state, too, and HRE support made it much more successful (it is TTL Lithuania).

and how did the HRE avoid civil wars over the centralized Monarchy and hereditary Emperor title?

Well, you can assume that they have happened to some degree, but the Hohenstaufen Emperors fought them from a much better position, ITTL. There is no untimely death and state-breaking interregnum, only a string of four longeve and talented Emperors, each one building on the foundation laid by the predecessor. Henry VI IOTL came very near to have the Empire made hereditary, and he had all but cowed the nobles and the city-states in Germany and Italy, if not for his untimely death opening up a long regency and dynastic civil war undoing most of his work. Here he builds from a even better position, since Barbarossa lives longer and come back from a successful crusade. His son lives to a ripe long age, and Frederick II inherits a stable empire, and he is educated to think as an emperor with possessions in Sicily, not the other way around. There is ill-timed decrees selling most imperial powers to the nobles. And after Frederick II, comes another long reign from a successful emperor, not two decades of interregnum. Each emperor only has to fight dwindling resistance to the centralization, and eventually the back of the particularist nobles and city-states is broken. By the time the 14th century turns around, the elites in Germany and Italy are accustomed to think that Providence saw fit to rebuild the Roman Empire in the West in the hands of the centralist Hohenstaufen emperors.

Also how does the HRE finally crush the papacy and not take it over for its own purposes??

Because there are also the other Western monarchies that squabble to take control of the weakened Papacy. They are all united in their common purpose to kill the theocratic power of the Curia, so their actions only prevent the Papacy from regaining any autonomus power (further weakening the Papacy in the end), but their squabbling prevents any one of them from taking complete control of the Papacy while it still keeps any substantial power. Only when it has dwindled down to an ineffectual shadow, it does become the puppet of Iberia. But by then, the monarchies have given up trying to assert their control on the Church across Europe, and turned to the next best tool to affirm their control on their national clergy, they prop up the power of the national episcopates (subordinate to the secular government, of course). The Ecumenic Council is left as the authoritative body of last resort for the (rare) occurences when decisions that affect the whole Church are necessary. The powers of the various national episcopates more or less balance in a council, so it is nowhere the threat to the power of the secular goverments that Papal supremacy was. In short, the OTL theocratic-centralistic evolution of the Western Church is reversed and it is sent to a decentralized episcopal-counciliar n evolutionary path much alike the Orthodox Church. This also allows an uneasy reconciliation between the Greek and Latin Churches.
 

Eurofed

Banned
If the Mongols didn't invade Europe, why isn't the Kievan Rus still around? Moscow only became the center of East Slav power after the Mongols smashed Kiev and took over everything east of Poland.

Edit: Heck, the East Slavs only split into the Russian/Belorussian/Ukrainian groups after the Mongols busted up the Kievan Rus.

But they did invade Russia. They don't go much further West than that, however, much like OTL.
 
But they did invade Russia. They don't go much further West than that, however, much like OTL.

Why did you say that the "Mongol invasion of Europe" was butterflied if they invaded per OTL, got as much territory as OTL, and kept as much territory as OTL? Because the Mongols never got past the Polish IOTL either.
 

Eurofed

Banned
I don't think that Iceland at the time had anywhere near enough people to be a viable independent state; also, it was considered part of Norway, so if Norway is part of the Kalmar Union, then why isn't Iceland?

A good point. So should I edit TL and map to make Iceland a part of Kalmar Union, too ?

12th century PoD would butterfly away Teutonic Knights in Prussia. With HRE expanding east, Duke Konrad of Masovia (with ambitions to unite Poland, rivalling silesian Piasts) will have other concerns than Prussians, and definitely won`t invite Teutons or give them Chałmno land.

So what should take the geopolitical place of the Teutonic Knight, then ? An early Lithuania ? Whomever it is, it is going to end up partially Germanized, and a semi-vassal of the HRE.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Why did you say that the "Mongol invasion of Europe" was butterflied if they invaded per OTL, got as much territory as OTL, and kept as much territory as OTL? Because the Mongols never got past Poland IOTL either.

Good point. I meant to say that the ATL Mongol invasion of Europe, an ever-present threat for successful Middle Age empires, was averted ITTL, too. Sorry for the mislesding language. Another correction to make.
 
Good point. I meant to say that the ATL Mongol invasion of Europe, an ever-present threat for successful Middle Age empires, was averted ITTL, too. Sorry for the mislesding language. Another correction to make.

Okay then, with that cleared up my next object focus on the Kieven Rus. The Mongols ruined it. They broke it, utterly. A Moscow backed by the Christian states would easily snap up Kiev, and the Ukraine, while kicking out the Mongols. Or they would take it over later, like what happened to Novgorod.

Edit: Unless the Poles/Lithuanians snap it up first like OTL.
 
Last edited:
So what should take the geopolitical place of the Teutonic Knight, then ? An early Lithuania ? Whomever it is, it is going to end up partially Germanized, and a semi-vassal of the HRE.

With your PoD - probably staying in Levant and loosing significance over time. Their short-lived presence in Transylvania would probably be butterflied as well, and without logistical base in Chełmno and support of Masovian Duke they might case to exist as political entity. Other than 'deus ex machina', it`s highly unlikely that they`ll conquer Baltics and create a state there IMHO.
 

Eurofed

Banned
With your PoD - probably staying in Levant and loosing significance over time. Their short-lived presence in Transylvania would probably be butterflied as well, and without logistical base in Chełmno and support of Masovian Duke they might case to exist as political entity. Other than 'deus ex machina', it`s highly unlikely that they`ll conquer Baltics and create a state there IMHO.

Ok, but my question was different. What kind of HRE-semi-vassal, half-Germanic, half-native state gets to fill the Prussia-Baltics-Lithuania-Bielorussia space ? Direct expansion by the HRE seems a bit too much, since they are already busy vassallizing and assimilating Lesser Poland, Masovia, Croatia, Hungary, and Transylvania.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Okay then, with that cleared up my next object focus on the Kieven Rus. The Mongols ruined it. They broke it, utterly. A Moscow backed by the Christian states would easily snap up Kiev, and the Ukraine, while kicking out the Mongols. Or they would take it over later, like what happened to Novgorod.

Edit: Unless the Poles/Lithuanians snap it up first like OTL.

Well, the Poles are basically screwed as a culture ITTL, the HRE behemoth is gradually assimilating them. Unless there is a large emigration of Poles east (and I don't see why, German expansion was relatively peaceful for the standard of the age, Muslims ITTL are the ones that flee persecution en masse), there are not in the position to do any empire-building in Ukraine.

Hmm, perhaps a half-Germanized Lithuania expands to fill Baltics, Bielorussia, and Ukraine While kicking out the mongols with support by the Christian statex? That may be a plausible solution.
 
Ok, but my question was different. What kind of HRE-semi-vassal, half-Germanic, half-native state gets to fill the Prussia-Baltics-Lithuania-Bielorussia space ? Direct expansion by the HRE seems a bit too much, since they are already busy vassallizing and assimilating Lesser Poland, Masovia, Croatia, Hungary, and Transylvania.

Maybe some 'Catholicised' Baltic (Prussian) tribe uniting region, and later expanding into Rus` weakened by Mogol raids (like OTL Lithuanians)? Quite far fetched, but I don`t have better idea.

Also - your Poland seems to be wrong with such PoD. In 12th century Poland was divided into several duchies in area similar to post-ww2 borders minus Pomerania. I doubt that Poland consisting only of Lesser Poland would manage to conquer Halych, Volhynia and Podolia. These lands were incorporated to Poland only in 14th century, and in your scenario it seems unlikely that these borders will be recreated exactly like OTL.
 
Another long reign by his son Conrad IV, in a dynasty notable for the longevity of its talented rulers, sees the Roman Empire being reborn as a centralized monarchy spanning Germany, Italy, Austria, Bohemia-Moravia, the Low Countries, and Burgundy, its armies buffered up by the manpower of Germany and Italy and its coffers filled by the taxation of the trade centers of Flanders, northern Germany, northern Italy, and Sicily.

The Roman Emperor in Constantinople might object to this characterization.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Ignoring that, I think that the initial claims largely depend on whose explorers land where. After that, it depends on who puts the most effort into their colonies. I think that the Kalmars are probably going to end up with much of the OTL French empire since they are closest to it.

A Kalmar Rupert's Land is certainly plausible. :D New France, however, could just as easily go to Britain or the HRE.

If all of the major powers reach the Americas at roughly the same time, we could see the major native states survive for longer if they have smart rulers who can play the Europeans of against each other.

The Aztecs and Inca empires don't really strike me as the type that can pull such a sophisticated diplomacy, given their massive OTL failure. Much less so the North American tribes. :eek:

Eventually, though, they are going to fall. If all of the major powers are exploring at the same time, then I doubt that one power is going to replicate the OTL success of the Spanish conquistadores. A much more diverse colonization of the Americas is likely. The Caribbean is going to be a perpetual warzone for certain.

True. However, I would still expect some kind of broad regional territorial continuity emerge for the various colonial empires, e.g. one main hegemon for Quebec/New England/Middle Atlantic, one for Dixie, one for Spanish South America or maybe the Gran Columbia and Rio de la Plata separate blocs, one for Brazil. After all, there are going to be just 3-4 key players, like OTL, only stronger. Caribbean and Central America, as you say, may become a perpetual warzone, even if Mexico and Gran Columbia each may become largely unitary colonies.

I can see the HRE expansion being driven by the Dutch, which could lead to a large trading empire for the HRE and little in the way of direct control.

Hmm, don't forget that ITTL the trading elites of the Low Countries, Hansa, and Italy have been accustomed to think themselves as part of large unitary empire for centuries, not the OTL city-states and merchant republics. I expect them to be more mercantilistic and aggressively colonizing in mentality, just like OTL British and French.

After all, they have to keep most of their forces in Europe due to their position, so they will have little to spare for extensive colonization. We will probably see overall less European populations in the Americas due to all of the major colonizing powers having extensive commitments in Europe, taking up resources that would otherwise be spent on colonial expansion.

Well, this is not too much different from OTL. European powers colonized the world while fighting endless wars in their own continent. TTL empires have bigger committments, but they also have greater economic and manpower bases to meet them. Also a large part of the basic job about expanding in the East and in the Mediterranean has been done before the Age of Exploration opens up. Assimilation of Central Europe North Africa, and the levant is more of an ongoing mop-up job.
 

Eurofed

Banned
The Roman Emperor in Constantinople might object to this characterization.

I should have written the "Western" Roman Empire. ;) And IIRC, the Byzantine Empire recognized the Carolingian Empire, the direct predecessor of the HRE, as their peer and successor of the WRE.

Anyway, I think there is going to be much more of subtle and not-so-subtle diplomatic squabbles for claiming the mantle of the WRE between HRE, the Angevins, and Iberia. The other two great powers are not going to acknowledge primacy to the HRE Emperor, and would try to elevate themselves, too, to imperial dignity, in order to claim equal status.

The HRE and BE have largely defined and distinct geopolitical turfs (despite the HRE colonies in the Levant, and their sphere of influence clash in the Balkans), and the division between WRE and ERE was mostly indisputed, so I expect less problems in that area.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Maybe some 'Catholicised' Baltic (Prussian) tribe uniting region, and later expanding into Rus` weakened by Mogol raids (like OTL Lithuanians)? Quite far fetched, but I don`t have better idea.

Hmm, perhaps "Prussians" indeed unite the region and later expand into Ukraine. By the way, with a stronger Christian empires around, ITTL the Tartars are kicked out of whole Ukraine centuries earlier than OTL. A state that spans the Baltics, Bielorussia, and Ukraine would powerful indeed, and likely able to play the HRE, Kalmar, Muscowy, and the Byzantines off each other. So maybe they are less the HRE vassals than I thought.

Also - your Poland seems to be wrong with such PoD. In 12th century Poland was divided into several duchies in area similar to post-ww2 borders minus Pomerania. I doubt that Poland consisting only of Lesser Poland would manage to conquer Halych, Volhynia and Podolia. These lands were incorporated to Poland only in 14th century, and in your scenario it seems unlikely that these borders will be recreated exactly like OTL.

Hmm, perhaps the HRE hammers vassal Poland together in the process of conquering the region ?
 
Top