Jospin vs. Le Pen?

[Douglas]

What sort of POD would have allowed Jospin and Le Pen to both finish higher than Chirac in the first round of the French 2002 Presidential election? Presumably Jospin would have won the runoff, but what percentage of right or center-right voters would have gone to the polls to vote for Le Pen in the runoff? How would a Jospin victory and/or a better showing by Le Pen affect French politics since then?

[Orville_third]

Chirac backing an invasion of Iraq. (IOTL, Chirac favored ties between France and Iraq...So much so that the Osirak reactor was nicknamed "O'Chirac"...)

[Hendryk]

One fewer left-wing candidate would probably have been enough for Jospin to make it into the run-off, but it's tougher to have Le Pen come out ahead of Chirac. One possibility would be that all the skeletons in Chirac's closet come out at the same time just before the election: his history of embezzlement while mayor of Paris, his repeated vote frauds, and perhaps a couple other things as well.

[kenmac]

Jean-Pierre Chevenment pulls out of the race for President and recommends his supporters vote Socialist.
Bruno Megret does not split from Le Pen's National Front.

Result

Lionel Jospin- 21.51%
Le Pen - 19.60 %
Jacques Chirac - 19.48 %

The second round would be interesting.