1916 Peace Talks

[chris N]

By late 1916 the war had been grinding down both sides for nearly more than 2 years. The war had seen the crushing of Serbi, deadlock on the Balkans a near Russian victory of the Austrian and disaters of the Western Front. Italy was tied down . Russia had lost ground to the Germans and it was clear to those who looked caefully that the Russian Military machine was beginning to crack. Jutland had had mixed results. the British had suffered heavier loses but the Germans had been forced to return to port.

Let us say that at this point Scandinavian Diplomats put a proposal for peace talks to both governments. In this case The new Austrian Emperor Karl also supports a settlement and is joined by german politicans and some of the military Leadership. The Bavarian Crown Prince makes it clear that it is his belief that if a reasonable settlement is offered the allies will agree and Germany will gain much.

The Kaiser reluctantly agrees to the talks but who will be the mediator. The Kaiser has little respect for the American President but there is one American that he believes will be fir and could stand up to either side. He proposes that the American former President Theodore Roosevelt take the lead in the talks.s considered a given that Germany will have to restore Belgium but will not give up the lands that it has held since 1870.

The Germans and the Austrians want a buffer state between them and the Russians thus they propose the creation of the Kingdom of Poland, hoping that that might appeal to the Americans.

Now how about any other suggestions?

[chris N]

Naturally the Germans and their Austro-Hungarian allies would have to be flexible on issues such as the restoration of Romania but the allies are going to have to give somewhat on territorial gains by Bulgaria and Austria-Hungary.

There is the sticky point regarding German Colonial territories but as I see it Germany would demand at least something back.

[mowque]

In 1916? You'll never get them to sit down. They all still want total victory.

[chris N]

Actually there was an effort made by the Scandinavians in 1916 and even the Kaiser did give in to allow a peace proposal to be tried. !916 had seen some truly bloody encounters and it was becoming clear to people like Ruprecht that the war was costing Germany far to many of its maan to go on.

The Question is what would be the minium that it would take to end the war. Without a doubt there would probably be another one in 20 years but for now there would be a peace.

[mailinutile2]

Now what about poor Vladimir Ilic?
still in switzerland?

[rast]

The novelty would still be a peace offer by the Entente. They never made any - only denounced those of the CP - because their peace aims (dismemberment of the CP) was not achivable in a negotiated peace but required a harsh dictate - à la Versailles.

[chris N]

The is also another factor at work the Irish Rebellion. Even though not successful it is something that is worrying the politicans in London and causing concern in the militry high command about all of those Irish units. It is also possible that it could have an impact in the US and in the Commonwealth.

The question is what would be the minium that the Allies would want. I doubt if the British would be willing to fight to get France back what it lost in 1870.

[bobbis14]

Originally Posted by mowque

In 1916? You'll never get them to sit down. They all still want total victory.

Agreed with this, both sides still believe it is possible to achieve victory. You'd need an ASB tbh

[chris N]

Let me make this clear that toward the end of 1916 there was a proposal put forward both by the Scandinavians and the Germans for a peace agreement. While there were those on both sides that believed that the war should continue there were others that believed that the cost of continuing to fight a war would be the destruction of all that they held dare.

Kaiser Karl of Austria-Hungary was one of those who came to power believing that the war would have to come to an end. If he insisted that the war would have to end th those voices in Germany who believed likewise would also be heard.

It was clear that with the massive loses of nearly 2+ years of war that the fighting would have to end soon. The High Seas Fleets failure to break out of the box and the failure of the Home Seas Fleet to destroy the Germans was an indication that neither side could win the war.

I do not believe that it is ASB for the talks to begin but instead a dawning realization that there was a need to see if there was not a possible compromise that could end the madness before it ended up destroying everything as it did in OTL. Perhaps much as in the peacetalks held during the Korean war these might start in 1916 but not come up with a result until 1917. If anyone could force a solution it would be former President Theodore Roosevelt.

[Grimm Reaper]

Chris, the Germans High Seas Fleet spent the war in port, emerging in 1916 only because they thought they could pit their entire High Seas Fleet against less than 30% of the British Grand Fleet, fled back to port when they realized they had nearly entered a British trap against the entire Grand Fleet and never appeared again while the blockade did crippling harm to their nation.

At Jutland the Germans achieved none of their goals and the British achieved everything short of wiping out the German fleet in another Trafalger. By any standard that is a clear British victory.

Jutland proved nothing about British inability to defeat the German fleet.


Of course, losing the RN would be fatal to England but the loss of the German fleet would not be nearly as damaging to Germany, one reason that the High Seas Fleet should perhaps have made greater efforts.



Not only did Germany and the Kaiser have no interest in any negotiated peace which did not ensure substantial German gains, a peace based on the terms mentioned here would have gained little more than Poland and left Germany with a crushing economic debt and surrounded by an established alliance between England, France and Russia.

[ZachScape]

Originally Posted by chris N

The Kaiser reluctantly agrees to the talks but who will be the mediator. The Kaiser has little respect for the American President but there is one American that he believes will be fir and could stand up to either side. He proposes that the American former President Theodore Roosevelt take the lead in the talks.s considered a given that Germany will have to restore Belgium but will not give up the lands that it has held since 1870.

It is true that TR was the master of arbitration. But since the war's beginning, he was one of the most outspoken men in America against the Central Powers. Kaiser would not want TR to mediate, but it is possible he may be forced to accept TR. Though TR may die before the peace process ends.

[Fenwick]

The issue will be that Germany is "winning" the war in 1916. Logic tells you that if you hold enemy land, and they hold none of yours you are in the lead. Status quo seems impossible, and as France, UK, and Russia still have a fight in them I cannot see anyone sitting down for peace.

You either need a strong victory somewhere for the CP's, or you need the mutiny movements occuring sooner for France.

[I Blame Communism]

Everyone's saying all the Entente powers were set on total victory, but Sturmer in Russia (though not everybody in the Tsarist regime: the extent of domestic breakdown wasn't recognised until much too late) was open to a status-quo peace. That was sabotaged by German internal contradictions (Ludendorff proclaimed his sham Poland largely to scupper it), but it's worth noting.

[Beer]

Ah, Grimm Reaper brings forth the "UK can do no wrong and never loose" cudgel!
Pardon me, but Skagerrak was a tactical victory for the HSF. The HSF beat the british trap, their greater numbers (151GF/99HSF) and sunk more ships, esp. dreadnought types, than the GF. The "fleeing back to Germany" was an invention of Northcliff´s band of buggers to gloss over the fact that with the deck stacked against them, the HSF still survived and dealt out better than it got hit. Especially the battlecruiser and the night fight parts of the battle showed no fleeing. Losing 14 ships, esp. 3 battlecruisers, made the UK very sore losers. Scheer left the battle because First Scouting had been in battle since afternoon and needed a break and before the british greater numbers would become really bothersome. They left in fighting order, no fleeing.

Still, it was just a tactical victory, since the UK could keep up the blockade. By the way, that the HSF did not venture out more was in part due to pressure from Wilhelm II., who did not want to risk "his" HSF. (to the consternation of the HSF themselves)

[chris N]

Quite true the Kaiser was worried about losing any of his precious capital ships. The last time that major elements of the Imperial German Navy set sail was not into the North Sea but into the Baltic when Germany launched its major amphibious operation. gaining islands off the Baltic coast and within striking range of St Petersburg.

OK , lets say that there are some form of talks but progress seems to be moving at a snail's pace. German inflicts futher serious loses on the French in 1917 triggering the mutiny and at the same time the troubles feared in Ireland happen and spread to Irish units. War weariness is spreading in both the Allied and Central Powers country. Kaiser Karl Demands an end to the war or a separate peace will be made. It is now made clear to the Czar that the Russian military is falling apart. There are not enough weapons or ammo and unrest is spreading among the countryside. Russia must make peace or face a revolution.

A renewed effort is made to make a peace. Suggest a possible terms that might be proposed to TR.

[Grimm Reaper]

Beer, yes, Grimm Reaper points out inconvenient facts!

The German fleet consumed vast resources from the start of the 20th Century and played a key role in the break between England and Germany, after which the fleet stayed in port from early August 1914 to late May 1916, emerged for a tactical victory of no importance and then refused to face the British for the rest of the war.

Stacked against them? The whole point of Jutland to the Germans was to engage a minority of the RN with the full power of the HSF and the HSF (correctly) fled when they realized the opportunity to do so had been missed.




Chris, your scenario involves the Kaiser to be actively seeking the diplomatic intervention of Teddy Roosevelt, the loudest voice in favor of the US joining the Allies. Roosevelt is the last American any German would want to see rising in importance.

What about Emperor Karl taking the plunge and entering serious talks and even a cease fire to negotiate a separate peace, something the French and especially British will have no problems with. This might force Germany to come to terms before the military situation tips irrevocably against her.

The question is what terms Karl might offer which would be acceptable.

Russia is in poor condition and Italy has suffered an entire series of defeats so neither can plausibly demand much(if anything), further the subsequent collapse of the remaining Central Powers if Vienna leaves the war could be presented as where Rome and St Petersburg can make gains.

[Beer]

Originally Posted by Grimm Reaper

Beer, yes, Grimm Reaper points out inconvenient facts!

The German fleet consumed vast resources from the start of the 20th Century and played a key role in the break between England and Germany, after which the fleet stayed in port from early August 1914 to late May 1916, emerged for a tactical victory of no importance and then refused to face the British for the rest of the war.

Stacked against them? The whole point of Jutland to the Germans was to engage a minority of the RN with the full power of the HSF and the HSF (correctly) fled when they realized the opportunity to do so had been missed.

LOL!
Had I (or many others) been at the reigns of Germany at the turn of the 20th century, I/we would have handled the naval approach differently. The HSF was not a bad idea neither were Tirpitz´s plans per se, but executed with a defter hand and one,two slight spins would have been FAR better.
But an important problem was that the Kaiser did not let the HSF do more.
And my problem is with your insistence of "fleeing". Fleeing is "run like hell, don´t look back". The HSF bloodied the nose of the GF and retreated bach to the bight, ready to give battle again under more favorable conditions (read minefields to exploit). This is not fleeing.

[Grimm Reaper]

I/we?

Oh dear. Guys, back away from Beer. I think the Teutonic hive mentality has struck again but this time there's been a glitch as his/their comments admit the mass entity involved.

[Beer]

Originally Posted by Grimm Reaper

I/we?
Oh dear. Guys, back away from Beer. I think the Teutonic hive mentality has struck again but this time there's been a glitch as his/their comments admit the mass entity involved.

Hi, Grimm! Could it be that you willfully misunderstand my posts? Wir kriegen dich mit Danone Joghurt! (We´ll get you with Danone Joghurt!)
Joking aside: No harm done.

[Grimm Reaper]

Awww, Beer, you think I would do something mean on purpose?

drat. he's on to me

I'm just playing with you and the hive mentality is an old joke going back to two German members who seem to disagree on everything politically but always come to the same conclusion when it comes to things like the EU.