As the Forum's resident Paraguay fanatic (in addition to being the Official Maya Fanatic), I've been brainstorming ways to have Paraguay win the famous War of the Triple Alliance against Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay some time after said treaty is found. And while I am sure there are better POD's than this, one thing that commonly comes up is the Battle of Tuyuti. It was the single biggest battle in South American history, and ended in a devastating Paraguayan defeat. I've often heard people say that a Paraguayan victory here is what is needed to win the war, but I am not completely sure, so I decided to post this to ask the experts.
Anyways, by the time of the titular battle, the Allies had encamped in a position resembling a 4,200 yard horseshoe, with 2 redoubts and many rifled cannons. The Paraguayan positions were protected by impenetrable jungle, trenches covering the passes, and some of the only passes were marshes that had depths ranging up to 6ft. The original plan by Lopez, president of Paraguay, was to wait for an Allied attack, hold them for as long as possible, and have a force of 10,000 men take a secret pass and hit the rear of the Allied forces.
This changed when Lopez heard the Allies were preparing an imminent attack, so he decided to conduct a preemptive one. His new plan was to have three columns assault the Allies in total. General Barrios, with 8,000 infantry and 1,000 cavalry in addition to some light artillery and rockets, was to attack the Allies' left flank, composing of Brazilians. Colonel Diaz was to assault and hold down their center, with 5,000 infantry and 4 howitzers at his command. And General Resquin, with 7,000 cavalry and 2,000 infantry, was to attack the Allied right composed of Argentinians, who IIRC were manning most of the Allied artillery. The idea was to have Resquin's forces group of just beyond Allied view before daybreak, Diaz was to the same, and Barrios, with the longest and hardest trip, was to hack through the jungle and be ready to fire a signal rocket at 9:00 in the morning. The plan was to have the cavalry on the flanks sweep around and meet up at the Allied rear, and destroy the Allied army entirely.
The plan ultimately failed mostly out of bad luck. The trip through the bush took Barrios longer than expected, and he was only ready to signal the start of the attack at 11:30. At this time, the Allies just happened to all already be under arms as General Mitre, leader of Argentina and head of the army, was preparing to make a reconnaissance in force on the Paraguayan positions. When the congreve rocket signaling the start of the attack was launched, they were seen by the enemy much quicker than expected and the Allies managed to get their defenses up in the nick of time. Thus the battle turned into a Latin-American Waterloo with a series of charges and counter-charges, and the Paraguayans still nearly won. But, by the end they had lost some 12,000 killed or wounded, including many or most of their best horses and men. The Allies also suffered greatly, so much so that they were completely unable to pursue the bloodied Paraguayans.
Now, the POD in this battle is pretty obvious. Have Barrios be a bit more lucky and make it to his position by the deadline of 9 o'clock. At this time, the Allies will still be rather groggy, unprepared, and not at all expecting an attack. So, would Resquin and Barrios be able to manage to break past the Allies, regroup at their rear, and then surround and destroy the entire Allied army as planned if this were the case? If so, can the war be won by the Paraguayans? After all, Brazil's best generals and Argentina's and Uruguay's leaders are either dead or captured, and a great portion the army they tried so hard to muster have been rounded up. In addition, in such a victory the Paraguayan losses are surely much less than OTL's, and considering their later OTL success, ITTL they have a much better chance at fighting off any reinforcements. One more question, what do you think are the prospective chances of the Paraguayans' first plans of defending then surrounding the Allied army?
Anyways, by the time of the titular battle, the Allies had encamped in a position resembling a 4,200 yard horseshoe, with 2 redoubts and many rifled cannons. The Paraguayan positions were protected by impenetrable jungle, trenches covering the passes, and some of the only passes were marshes that had depths ranging up to 6ft. The original plan by Lopez, president of Paraguay, was to wait for an Allied attack, hold them for as long as possible, and have a force of 10,000 men take a secret pass and hit the rear of the Allied forces.
This changed when Lopez heard the Allies were preparing an imminent attack, so he decided to conduct a preemptive one. His new plan was to have three columns assault the Allies in total. General Barrios, with 8,000 infantry and 1,000 cavalry in addition to some light artillery and rockets, was to attack the Allies' left flank, composing of Brazilians. Colonel Diaz was to assault and hold down their center, with 5,000 infantry and 4 howitzers at his command. And General Resquin, with 7,000 cavalry and 2,000 infantry, was to attack the Allied right composed of Argentinians, who IIRC were manning most of the Allied artillery. The idea was to have Resquin's forces group of just beyond Allied view before daybreak, Diaz was to the same, and Barrios, with the longest and hardest trip, was to hack through the jungle and be ready to fire a signal rocket at 9:00 in the morning. The plan was to have the cavalry on the flanks sweep around and meet up at the Allied rear, and destroy the Allied army entirely.
The plan ultimately failed mostly out of bad luck. The trip through the bush took Barrios longer than expected, and he was only ready to signal the start of the attack at 11:30. At this time, the Allies just happened to all already be under arms as General Mitre, leader of Argentina and head of the army, was preparing to make a reconnaissance in force on the Paraguayan positions. When the congreve rocket signaling the start of the attack was launched, they were seen by the enemy much quicker than expected and the Allies managed to get their defenses up in the nick of time. Thus the battle turned into a Latin-American Waterloo with a series of charges and counter-charges, and the Paraguayans still nearly won. But, by the end they had lost some 12,000 killed or wounded, including many or most of their best horses and men. The Allies also suffered greatly, so much so that they were completely unable to pursue the bloodied Paraguayans.
Now, the POD in this battle is pretty obvious. Have Barrios be a bit more lucky and make it to his position by the deadline of 9 o'clock. At this time, the Allies will still be rather groggy, unprepared, and not at all expecting an attack. So, would Resquin and Barrios be able to manage to break past the Allies, regroup at their rear, and then surround and destroy the entire Allied army as planned if this were the case? If so, can the war be won by the Paraguayans? After all, Brazil's best generals and Argentina's and Uruguay's leaders are either dead or captured, and a great portion the army they tried so hard to muster have been rounded up. In addition, in such a victory the Paraguayan losses are surely much less than OTL's, and considering their later OTL success, ITTL they have a much better chance at fighting off any reinforcements. One more question, what do you think are the prospective chances of the Paraguayans' first plans of defending then surrounding the Allied army?
