The Rise of the South

Jake Vektor

Banned
This is my idea of an independent Confederate States of America
Part 1: Conception
1862-The Army of Northern Virginia does not lose Special Order 191. General George McClellan's Army of the Northern Potomac does not confront the Confederate forces at Antietam, allowing the Confederates to resupply with captured Union supplies and allow stragglers to catch up. The ANV is able to cross into Pennsylvania. After methodical searching, McClellan's forces find the Confederates at the town of Gettysburg on Oct 8. A fierce battle ensues, and the Confederates slowly gain the upper hand. The battle ends when General McClellan is killed by a stray bullet. The Union soldiers either surrender or flee.
Out west, the Confederates capture the "border states" of Kentucky and Missouri. Back East, General Robert E. Lee captures Maryland. The Union government flees to Philadelphia. The Confederate victories on Union soil demoralize the North. In the congressional elections, the pro-peace Democrats gain a majority in Congress.
Meanwhile, General Lee, emboldened by his recent successes, sends a letter to the Confederate Congress. Lee puts forth a bold proposition-that the Confederate government begin a process of phasing out slavery. Lee argues that slavery is becoming obsolete anyway, and that getting rid of the institution would take away the North's supposed moral high ground. Lee urges the lawmakers to stand up to the "Cotton oligarchs." Lee reminds the Confederate Congress that "Our primary purpose is not extending the lifespan of the institution of slavery, but securing State's Rights." The Confederate Congress initially balks, but they eventually come to the same conclusion as Lee. In November 1862, the Confederate Congress passes a law stating the following: while the current generation of slaves would remain in servitude, all children born on/after Jan. 1, 1863, shall be born free. The law is controversial-blacks both enslaved and free are overjoyed, but the slaveowners are incensed. Some slaveowners sterilize their slaves so they cannot produce any "free niggers." The act proves beneficial in one way, however-it earns the diplomatic recognition of the Confederate States of America by Britain and France.
1863-The Treaty of Richmond brings an official end to the War Between the States on Jan. 1. The United States of America officialy recognizes the independence of the Confederate States of America. The border states are to be turned over to the CSA, along with the New Mexico territory. All US states and territories bordering the Confederacy are to be demilitarized-the US is forbidden from placing any military presence in those areas, in order to prevent the US from menacing the Confederacy. The USA does get one concession-the state of West Virginia, a group of counties in northwestern Virginia who opposed Virginia's secession from the Union.

The butterfly has flapped its wings, now let the hurricane begin...;)
Edit 1/16/10: Since you seemed to be so worked up about the details of this TL, let me explain to you: This TL is not meant to be "realistic" or anything like that. Basically, this TL was inspired by a trip through the Alternative History Wiki, where I saw a bunch of whacked-out TLs and thought "I can top this." Therefore I set out to make a TL filled with as much ASB-ness, cliches, and unreasonable twists as possible. Another reason for making this TL is my loyalty to the South. I am a proud Neo-Confederate, and I wanted to write a TL where the CSA gets a chance to shine. So don't go telling me how unrealistic this is, because I already know and don't give a dang.
 
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In November 1862, the Confederate Congress passes a law stating the following: while the current generation of slaves would remain in servitude, all children born on/after Jan. 1, 1863, shall be born free.
Unfortunately this law would be Unconstitutional. The CS Congress would know this and the law would be dead as soon as proposed.

The victory by the Southerern Patriots, would prevent the Emancipation Proclamation. This would prevent the War as being seen in Europe as a war to free the Slaves.
This allows Britain and France to recognise the CS after the peace treaty is signed.
The border states are to be turned over to the CSA, along with the New Mexico territory
I see the NM Territory, but the States would get to choose, The war is about States Rights after all.
All US states and territories bordering the Confederacy are to be demilitarized-the US is forbidden from placing any military presence in those areas, in order to prevent the US from menacing the Confederacy
Not a mid 19th Century concept, Nor has the US Defeat been bad enuff to allow the CS to force this. You have a political forced Cease Fire, not a Military Surrender.

With this much shorter War, Both sides will be looking to get back to pre war normal, and this will show in the negotiations.
plus Lincoln will be looking South at Mexico, I doubt if the French will even try to take Mexico.
Maybe something like having [forceing] the Mexicans sell the northern 1/3 [Gilla river] of Sonora & Baja to the CS, and the French take that money and pull out.
 
Welcome to the board, and apologies in advance for the aforementioned whaling-upon written below.

Meanwhile, General Lee, emboldened by his recent successes, sends a letter to the Confederate Congress. Lee puts forth a bold proposition-that the Confederate government begin a process of phasing out slavery. Lee argues that slavery is becoming obsolete anyway, and that getting rid of the institution would take away the North's supposed moral high ground. Lee urges the lawmakers to stand up to the "Cotton oligarchs." Lee reminds the Confederate Congress that "Our primary purpose is not extending the lifespan of the institution of slavery, but securing State's Rights." The Confederate Congress initially balks, but they eventually come to the same conclusion as Lee. In November 1862, the Confederate Congress passes a law stating the following: while the current generation of slaves would remain in servitude, all children born on/after Jan. 1, 1863, shall be born free.
Sorry, but no chance. No chance at all.

The CSA was founded as a slave power, by slaveholders for slaveholders. The "states' rights" that were the basis for their secession was the right to own slaves. It was written into the confederate states' constitutions as well as their national constitution that slavery of blacks would always and forever be legal. Simply put, the CSA was built on slavery.

There is no way that Robert E Lee -- and keep in mind that the evidence of him being opposed to slavery is tenuous at best -- would advocate the abolition of their nation's very reason for being, at the expense of the country's largest industry, is frankly unbelievable. That the Congress would agree to it is even more so.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
1862-The Army of Northern Virginia does not lose Special Order 191. General George McClellan's Army of the Northern Potomac does not confront the Confederate forces at Antietam, allowing the Confederates to resupply with captured Union supplies and allow stragglers to catch up. The ANV is able to cross into Pennsylvania. After methodical searching, McClellan's forces find the Confederates at the town of Gettysburg on Oct 8. A fierce battle ensues, and the Confederates slowly gain the upper hand. The battle ends when General McClellan is killed by a stray bullet. The Union soldiers either surrender or flee.

I swear this is something directly out of one of the What If? books, right down to McClellan getting hit by a stray bullet...
 
Unfortunately this law would be Unconstitutional. The CS Congress would know this and the law would be dead as soon as proposed.

The victory by the Southerern Patriots, would prevent the Emancipation Proclamation. This would prevent the War as being seen in Europe as a war to free the Slaves.
This allows Britain and France to recognise the CS after the peace treaty is signed.
I see the NM Territory, but the States would get to choose, The war is about States Rights after all.
Not a mid 19th Century concept, Nor has the US Defeat been bad enuff to allow the CS to force this. You have a political forced Cease Fire, not a Military Surrender.

With this much shorter War, Both sides will be looking to get back to pre war normal, and this will show in the negotiations.
plus Lincoln will be looking South at Mexico, I doubt if the French will even try to take Mexico.
Maybe something like having [forceing] the Mexicans sell the northern 1/3 [Gilla river] of Sonora & Baja to the CS, and the French take that money and pull out.
If the CSA has the New Mexico territory the US's only land border with Mexico is the Cali border with Baja. Arizona territory did not come into being till July 4,1863 up until that date NM terr. covered all of present day NM, AZ, and the southern part of Nevada south of the line if the northern AZ border was continued to Cali (the Arizona Strip).
 

Jake Vektor

Banned
Part 2: Two nations under God
1864-Abraham Lincoln, having failed to hold on to the South, decides against running for re-election. Hannibal Hamlin is elected president of the US.
1865-The Mexicans overthrow Emperor Maximillian. Unlike OTL, Maximillian is not executed and manages to escape back to Europe. He arrives just in time to see the Austrian Empire begin to unravel. The Hungarians have renewed their drive for independence, inspired by the example of the CSA.
1866-The CSA holds presidential elections. Robert E. Lee runs and is elected in a landslide with Thomas "Stonewall" Jackson as his running mate. Jefferson Davis retires to New Orleans.
Austria formally recognizes Hungary's independence. Maximillian is offered the Holy Crown of Hungary-which he accepts-and becomes King Maximillian II of Hungary. Bohemia, Moravia, and Galicia also break away.
1867-The Confederacy purchases Alaska from Russia.
1867-1873-The Lee administration focuses mainly on preparing Confederate society for the emerging generation of free blacks. A constitutional amendment is passed in 1869 banning discrimination on ethnic grounds. Sadly, Lee dies of heart disease in 1870. Jackson serves the remainder of Lee's term.
1870-1871-The Franco-Prussian War is fought as in OTL, except that Paris is never beseiged and therefore Napoleon III is never deposed. The German states unite into the German Empire. King Wilhelm of Prussia is crowned Kaiser of the Germans. Wilhelm invites Austria to join Germany. Austrian monarch Franz Joseph duly accepts, and the Kingdom of Austria (Austria had ceased to be an empire after the loss of Hungary) becomes a constitutent state of Germany. Bohemia and Moravia also choose to join Germany due to their past ties to the German lands.
1873-James Longstreet is elected president of the CSA. He follows a policy of industrialization to build what he calls the "New South." His primary purpose is to speed up the phasing out of slavery by breaking the power of the plantations.
Napoleon III dies and is succeeded by his son Napoleon IV. Napoleon IV does not share his father's pro-British position, and quickly reignites the old Anglo-French rivalry. As a result, Britain begins to move closer to Germany.
1877-Rutherford B. Hayes is elected president of the US. Hayes seeks warmer ties with the CSA.
1880-Hayes declines running for re-election. James Garfield is elected president of the US.
1881-Garfield is assassinated.
1888-Kaiser Wilhelm I dies and is succeeded by Friedrich III-who ITTL, does not develop pulmonary disease. Friedrich begins a program of reforms, expanding civil liberties and making German politics more democratic. Friedrich also seeks to strengthen Anglo-German ties.
By this year in the CSA, the last generation of slaves has died out. The Confederate government declares the official end of slavery. Without intensification of racial animus caused by Reconstruction IOTL, blacks are able to successfully integrate into the mainstream of Confederate society.
1889-Former Confederate president Jefferson Davis dies peacefully at his home in New Orleans. There is great mourning throughout the CSA by people of all colors.
1890-Britain, Germany, and Italy form the Triple Alliance.
1898-The Spanish-American war is fought between the CSA (led by President Clifton R. Breckinridge) and Spain over Spanish oppression of the people of Cuba. The CSA wins hands-down and gains Cuba, Puerto Rico, the Phillipines, and Guam.
1901-US President William McKinley is assassinated. Theodore Roosevelt is sworn in. Roosevelt is concerned about the rising power of the CSA, yet he continues to maintain friendly relations because he-like most Northerners-does not want another War Between the States.
Queen Victoria of Britain dies. Among the people by her bedside in her final moments is heir to the German throne Wilhelm II.
1902-Cuba gains statehood in the CSA. The Cuban constitution establishes English and Spanish as the state's official languages, making Cuba the first bilingual state in the Confederacy.
France, Russia, and Spain form the Triple Entente.
1903-Kaiser Friedrich III dies and is succeeded by his son Wilhelm II. Wilhelm is less militaristic than IOTL, due to considerations of the alliance with Britain.
Confederate President Benjamin Tillman opens his term by purchasing the Isthmus of Panama from Colombia and beginning work on the Panama Canal.
1906-Napoleon IV is assassinated by an anarchist and succeeded by his son Alphonse Napoleon.
1908-Russian Czar Nicholas II claims the crown of Galicia, incorporating the Polish kingdom into the Russian Empire. The event increases tensions between the European powers.
1909-Theodore Roosevelt's VP William H. Taft is elected US president.
1912-Theodore Roosevelt returns on the Progressive Party ticket. He wins a narrow victory and secures the White House once again.
1913-The Panama Canal is completed. Panama gains statehood in the CSA.
 
1867-The Confederacy purchases Alaska from Russia.
Where the H*** does it get the money from?
And ?how does it get away with Violating the CS Constitution again.
And with no Pacific Port,?Why would it want it?
 
Talk about your Confederate wank. Not sure where the money's coming from, or why they want all this land, or how they even get the Philippines, or how roughly the so many of the same presidents of the USA get elected and assassinated just like in our timeline, or why there are so many unexplained arbitrary POD's such as "Maximilian not executed and gets new throne" or "Paris is not besieged" for pretty much no reason whatsoever.
 

Jake Vektor

Banned
Talk about your Confederate wank. Not sure where the money's coming from, or why they want all this land, or how they even get the Philippines, or how roughly the so many of the same presidents of the USA get elected and assassinated just like in our timeline, or why there are so many unexplained arbitrary POD's such as "Maximilian not executed and gets new throne" or "Paris is not besieged" for pretty much no reason whatsoever.
The reason for these changes is that this whole TL basically operates on the Butterfly Effect-one small change in a historical event can result in changes to other events, no matter how unrelated these events appear to be.
 
The reason for these changes is that this whole TL basically operates on the Butterfly Effect-one small change in a historical event can result in changes to other events, no matter how unrelated these events appear to be.
So why doesn't the Butterfly Effect apply in logical situations such as the election and assassination of US presidents?
 
The reason for these changes is that this whole TL basically operates on the Butterfly Effect-one small change in a historical event can result in changes to other events, no matter how unrelated these events appear to be.

So the butterflies are enough to alter the course of the Franco-Prussian war (although, interestingly enough, not alter the occurance of the war) and save Maximillian, but still allow Taft to be elected president in 1908 (for that matter, was he alive when the civil war broke out?)?

I think Wolfpaw is right. I haven't read the scenario in question in quite some time, but I'm pretty sure that the events of 1862 are taken from one of the What if books. The rest of the scenario is implausible CS wanking.
 
The reason for these changes is that this whole TL basically operates on the Butterfly Effect-one small change in a historical event can result in changes to other events, no matter how unrelated these events appear to be.
You don't understand butterfly effect, changes still need reason. You can't just arbitrarily change things you don't want happening with no reason. Assuming the Franco-Prussian War still happens, you need to explain why in God's name the Germans stop at Paris, or why Napoleon is still in charge after his numerous failures, or why the Mexicans don't execute Maximillian, etc.
 

Philip

Donor
The reason for these changes is that this whole TL basically operates on the Butterfly Effect-one small change in a historical event can result in changes to other events, no matter how unrelated these events appear to be.

Yeah, that's not the butterfly effect. The BE, bases on Chaos Theory, requires causation.
 

Hendryk

Banned
Welcome to AH.com, Jake, and let's clear a potential misunderstanding right away: Confederate victory is possibly the most frequently rehashed counterfactual scenario on this or any other English-language alternate history forum. You are, basically, bringing coals to Newcastle. This is one of the reasons your timeline is being criticized so strongly: there are lots of people here who have done extensive research on the American Civil War and thought long and hard about every last possible variant of a surviving Confederate States of America ATL.

This is not to say that your TL doesn't have other problems, but you'll figure out which ones fairly soon once you get a better grasp of the rules of AH. It's a learning curve many of us have had to climb.

I suggest you have a look at the Timelines and Scenarios subforum to get an idea of what has already been done, and then start thinking about what you might come up with yourself.
 
As Hendryk says, Jake, I'm afraid that you're retreading all-too-familiar ground, which is why you're not getting as welcoming as you should. Do take some time to see how we work around here and look over what's been explored already. For now, please accept some constructive criticism of your TL's European portion, nearer my area of expertise. By all means keep airing your ideas and taking part!

Part 2: Two nations under God
1865-The Mexicans overthrow Emperor Maximillian. Unlike OTL, Maximillian is not executed and manages to escape back to Europe. He arrives just in time to see the Austrian Empire begin to unravel. The Hungarians have renewed their drive for independence, inspired by the example of the CSA.

The Hungarian movement was becoming increasingly active after the end of the neo-absolutist military regime in 1859-1861, it's true, but they didn't want to become independant, which would would have made them a small, poor, and unstable country. They could get all the benefits of independence inside Austria, as they accomplished in 1867.

Nothing much will have changed in Europe yet, and it would take very drastic changes to make the Hungarians either willing or able to gain full independence in 1865.

Austria formally recognizes Hungary's independence. Maximillian is offered the Holy Crown of Hungary-which he accepts-and becomes King Maximillian II of Hungary. Bohemia, Moravia, and Galicia also break away.

The Russians do not want to let Galicia wonder off on its own, especially not then, with the Polish rising of 1863 in living memory and Russophilia still fairly strong among Ukrainian intellectuals in Galicia. If continued Austrian rule is really impossible, the Russians will take the place for themselves.

1867-The Confederacy purchases Alaska from Russia.

Part of the reason for the sale (which was opposed by the Russian American Company, who stood to lose their jobs, and the Orthodox Church, who stood to lose their missions) was the pro-USA feeling in some Russian court circles. If America isn't a buyer, Russia'll probably just keep Alaska for the moment, since I can't see what the CSA would want with it.

1870-1871-The Franco-Prussian War is fought as in OTL,

Thing is, the collapse of Austria is going to radically alter diplomacy, With Austria falling apart by itself, there won't be any 1866 war, which leaves the questions of Venetia and Germany open. The Franco-German war was the result of some pretty strange circumstances OTL, both sides blundering into it without completely meaning to.

except that Paris is never beseiged and therefore Napoleon III is never deposed.

If the Germans take Alsace, Napoleon III would never rule France again: his regime was built on the prestige of his foreign policy achievements and was only just making the first attempts to switch to a more sound constitutional foundation in 1870.

Bohemia and Moravia also choose to join Germany due to their past ties to the German lands.

It's by no means implausible to have the Czech lands taken over by Germany (pan-Germans were banking on it until, what, 1945), but it's not going to be an entirely happy and voluntary process. If the Hapsburg state goes under, the Czechs will be mustard-keen on getting back national independence. They and the Germans haven't always got on, I regret to say as an enthusiast of both, and attempts to make the Czech lands the third leg of the hapsburg state in the early 1870s OTL floundered because neither side (but, I must say, especially not the Sudetendeutsch) could compromise with the position of the other.

Napoleon III dies and is succeeded by his son Napoleon IV. Napoleon IV does not share his father's pro-British position, and quickly reignites the old Anglo-French rivalry. As a result, Britain begins to move closer to Germany.

Napoleon IV was no Anglophobe OTL. He effectively became a Briton after the end of the Empire, and died in the Zulu War.

In any case, a lasting Bonepartist regime is likely to move towards constitutional monarchy, especially after the death of NIII.

1890-Britain, Germany, and Italy form the Triple Alliance.

In 1890 OTL, Britain was not yet willing to drop her policy of avoiding hard commitments to any European power, and I don't think the circumstances really warrant much change to this attitude.

France, Russia, and Spain form the Triple Entente.

But why would Spain have any interest in an alliance with Russia, or indeed vice-versa?

And indeed, why would Russia necessarily even want a partnership with France? We haven't heard anything about how the Eastern Question has unfolded in the absence of a Hapsburg monarchy.

1903-Kaiser Friedrich III dies and is succeeded by his son Wilhelm II. Wilhelm is less militaristic than IOTL, due to considerations of the alliance with Britain.

In OTL, Kaiser Wilhelm II was desperate for an alliance with Britain. He was simply too ham-fisted and too easily influenced by contradictory trends in German domestic politics to actually bring it about.

1908-Russian Czar Nicholas II claims the crown of Galicia, incorporating the Polish kingdom into the Russian Empire. The event increases tensions between the European powers.

As I said, the Russians would have done this the second such a kingdom was proclaimed, unless it was part of a post-Austrian confederation protected by Germany. In 1865, there isn't a Germany, and Prussia is pro-Russian and anti-Polish in any case.
 
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Jake Vektor

Banned
Part 3:World War I
1914:Russian Czar Nicholas II is assassinated in Warsaw by a Polish nationalist. Russia suspects Hungary-who has their own interests in Poland-of being behind the assassination, depsite the flimsy evidence supporting such an idea. Russia declares war on Hungary. This prompts Germany-who had pledged to protect Hungary when it became independent-to declare war on Russia. France and Spain in turn declare war on Germany. Italy declares war on France. Germany decides to concentrate on Russia and allow Italy to deal with France. However, France is determined to bring the fight to Germany. The French army marches throught Belgium to launch a sneak attack on Germany. This brings Britain into the war. Portugal, keeping with its alliance with Britain, declares war on Spain.
1915:As war rages in Europe, Woodrow Wilson is inaugurated as president of the CSA. Wilson is concerned by the events in Europe, but he resolves not to get the Confederacy involved unless the conflict poses a direct threat to the nation. US president Theodore Roosevelt is more eager to get involved, but he also holds back.
Greece joins the war on the side of the Central Powers (Germany, Britain, Hungary, and Italy). The Ottoman Empire in turn joins the war on the side of the Entente.
1916: The US and Confederacy's neutrality is tested by unrestricted submarine warfare. French submarines torpedo ships attempting to enter British or German ports in an attempt to disrupt trade and economically starve the Central Powers.
In Europe, the war has settled into a vicious stalemate. Germany is hedged in by two long trenches, one covering Belgium and Northern France, the other extending through Prussia and Poland. Greece and Turkey battle it out in the Balkans. Spain beseiges Gibraltar, hoping to gain the British colony.
1917-The turning point of the war.
In February 1917, the Czarina-who had been acting as regent since the death of Nicholas II-abdicates. A provisional republican government takes over and attempts to continue the war effort. The Russian people, however, have been bled dry and are tired of fighting. The Bolsheviks stage a revolution in October and signs the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, dropping Russia out of the war.
In March, joint US-Confederacy intelligence uncovers a telegram sent by French diplomats to the government of Mexico. In the telegram, the French urged Mexico to reclaim the land it lost in the Mexican-American war. The French promised to aid the Mexican war effort. Mexico does not accept the offer-it is too busy dealing with internal conflict. The offer was obviously intended to prevent the USA or CSA from entering the European conflict by keeping them distracted. It has the exact opposite effect-public opinion in both countries turns against France. The US and the Confederacy both declare war on France in April 1917.* Troops from both nations are soon pouring into Europe.
As the stalemate in northern France begins to break, the French government evacutes to Bordeaux.
In the Middle East, revolts break out in the Ottoman Empire aided by the British. T.E. Lawrence leads Arab rebels to several victories over the Ottomans.
1918-The final year of the conflict. The Central Powers score several victories against the French as both sides come out of their trenches.
Gibraltar is liberated after a long siege. Spain sues for peace in August after suffering several defeats on its soil.
As CP forces close in on Bordeaux, the French people begin to rise up in discontent. Emperor Alphonse Napoleon is forced to abdicate and flees to Andorra. A provisional government takes over and signs an armistice.
1919-The Treaty of Bremen brings an official end to the "Great War" in February. France is blamed solely for the conflict and is heavily penalized. France's colonial possessions are divided between Germany and Britain. Provence and Corsica are given to Italy. Nord-Pas-de-Calais is handed over to Belgium. The area between the Seine River and the Franco-German border is demilitarized.
Confederate President Woodrow Wilson is concerned by the vindictiveness displayed by the Central Powers. He warns that punishing France too harshly could have dire consequences later on. His concerns are dismissed by the Europeans. As for the US, Theodore Roosevelt does not live to see the treaty-he dies in his sleep on January 6. His successor, Charles E. Hughes, chooses not to participate in the treaty to the resurgence of isolationism caused by Roosevelt's death.
The League of Nations is created in the summer to prevent another Great War. Wilson plans on having the CSA join, but he is incapacitated by a stroke, and the Confederate Congress votes against joining the organization.
With the war over, Europe turns its attention to reconstruction while the two Americas refocus on their own affairs. France, reeling from the conflict, attempts to build up a new Republican regime, the Third French Republic. Nobody anticipates the troubles ahead...
*It is a common cliche of Confederacy-Wins scenarios to have the USA and CSA fight on opposite sides in World War I. I decided to buck that cliche by having them allied together against the same enemy-in this case, France. Generally, I wanted to go against the timeworn cliche of the USA and CSA being rivals. Why can't they be allies instead?:D
 

Hendryk

Banned
A word on etiquette: when constructive criticism is volunteered, it's good form to at least acknowledge it, and perhaps offer justifications for your choices.
1919-The Treaty of Bremen brings an official end to the "Great War" in February. France is blamed solely for the conflict and is heavily penalized. France's colonial possessions are divided between Germany and Britain. Provence and Corsica are given to Italy. Nord-Pas-de-Calais is handed over to Belgium. The area between the Seine River and the Franco-German border is demilitarized.
That's another AH cliché right there. I suppose France will go fascist and revanchist next. Woodrow Wilson as president of the CSA is another problematic bit.
 
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