I would imagine native unrest at the change of fiefdom being put down fairly hard, look at what happened to the Herero and Namaqua under German colonial rule.
It is very hard to see the rather sociopolitically underdeveloped 1917 subsaharian Africans getting up in arms about a change of masters, and let's be frank, what happened to the Herero was an kinda extreme case of a generalized standard about "scorched earth" colonial counterinsurgency back then. Witness the French in Algeria in the 19th century, or even more so, the Italians in Libya in the 1920s.
France wasn't perfect and Germany was not as bad as is often made out, but this just ain't so.
True, but in our case, we only need France not to be any really better than Germany, in order to be quite liable to falling to the same demons, when exposed to the same kind of extreme shock. And that was quite the case. The seeds of fascism were as plentiful in pre-WWI France as in Germany and Italy.
1. In Germany, anything could happen. We might see a quick development into a constitutional monarchy, but even with the 1914-constitution, Germany might calm down a lot. Germany would most probable not evolve into a Nazi-like regime. Why not? Because there is no reason for it. German elites don't have any, and neither would the electorate have.
What I deem realistic is a Germany which has serious troubles with the Europe they try to create, especially in the East, maybe also in Africa. In some places, they might simply over-extend and get more trouble than these places are worth.
Also, there will be some economic trouble as Entente reparations won't be sufficient to pay for that expensive war (unless the ASBs can make the USA pay reparations
).
German Colonial Rule in Africa won't be easy and Germany is simply too young as a colonial power to prepare giving up any parts of it. But - can't be much worse than Belgian rule either.
Certainly no Hitler Chancellorship. Certainly no Holocaust as we know it.
All very true, and for the record, I would add that Italy (which would almost surely eagerly modeling itself into a junior copy of Germany) would face pretty much the same problems and opportunities, on a lesser scale. Certainly no fascist regime, surely remaining a sane and civil constitutional monarchy and quite likely evolving further towards liberalism. Quite possibly some amount of colonial overextension. Quite likely accelerated industrialization owing to strong economic integration with Germansphere.
How strong would expect those post-war CP economic troubles to be ? The more they are, the more they shall try to squeeze reparations out of France (and Russia, if it doesn't go Red). Oh, the scenario assumes that the USA doesn't go Entente.
2. Austria-Hungary, as discussed recently, will have turbulent times ahead and I cannot see how a crackdown of the original Ausgleich can be avoided. But it will should down and generally, it will do better than the single countries in OTL.
Agreed, regardless of whether the A-H crisis results into federal stabilization or Italo-German-Hungarian partition.
Austro-Hungarian rule in Serbia was harsh in WW1 (much worse than German rule in Belgium) and I expect it to be troublesome for some time, if Serbia gets annexed.
Unfortunately, true, regardless of whether Serbia gets annexed by the Habsburg or becomes a heavily garrisoned CP vassal. A less dystopian outcome for them could happen if A-H is partitioned and they are set up as an independent clinet kingdom with Bosnia, this could make them content enough to calm down.
Depending on the POD, Communist rule will probably be established in what is left of Russia, so we have a Sovjet Union in the borders of present-day Russia plus maybe Byelorussia, maybe Central Asia.
Germany will find out it is not worth meddling in what is outside its sphere of influence (Finland, Baltic State(s), Ukraine), the Entente powers will be too weak to bother with the Russian Civil War, so I assume this one will be shorter.
All quite possible, unfortunately.
Also, as Stalin will have less people to rule over, he will have less possibilities to kill them.
He might redirect his "attentions" from Ukrainians to Central Asians, however.
Will he be accepted at all if maybe Georgia manages to remain independant?
Not going to be a relevant factor, IMO.
Japan will probably act not much different than OTL. It might even feel less inhibited if Britain and France remain weakened.
True.
France (..) will have to apply Strésémân - tactics for a long time.
Quite true, but I don't expect France to get seriously revanchist before 10-15 years after the war, if it is going to have any success. Doing so too blatantly, too soon after the war is only going to unleash a quick Italo-German bitchslap. Fritz and Guido back in Paris in a month, end of story.
I imagine that France might get a slightly anti-Semitic, nationalist regime perhaps restoring one of the three monarchist factions (Orléanist, Legitimist or Bonapartist) although I don't see anything like Nazism emerging. Hitler's teachings were a rather unique set of ideas combined into one ideology which is unlikely to emerge in a different context, in a different country and without Hitler and his oratory skills. I don't see a holocaust in France, but I do see general oppression of Jews, immigrants, blacks, communists, Freemasons, Protestants etc.
Russia I'm not sure of. If it turns fascist we might see pogroms against the Jews. Tsarist Russia was already known for this and in spite of the USSR's atheist nature, low level anti-Semitism was a problem there too. Stalin was a little anti-Semitic (how much of that was induced by the little voices in his head is debatable though). If Russia goes commie and Stalin rises to power, it'll be more or less the same as OTL, perhaps with atrocities against the Poles is this weaker USSR manages to get that far.
Japan, if it's militarist like you say, has no reason to treat POWs any better than they did IOTL so the slave labour, bad treatment, atrocities in China and the Pacific will still happen. Not necessarily another 'rape of Nanking', but it won't be pretty.
All in all, not very nice, but still better than OTL.
A quite reasonable assessment.
Not if you ask people like Hurgan, giobastia, Spitfiremk1....
They generally think Germany will go to hell and back to make a CP victory world as dystopian as humanly possibble, overshadowing Hitler when it comes to atrocities and war.
I dont share their opinion, I am simply warning you about this.
And why does a revanchist regime have to be fascist or communist? France wasnt neither before WWI, and yet they were "hoooray, war" revachists. How about a TL were fascism never rises to prominence, or where its most serious representative is a Mussolini-like regime?
Hmmm.... Probably the Red/Brown Russians and Japanese would be the main perpetrators, with Russia comminting a watered down Holocaust against non-Russians and Eastern European Germans?
Well, of course French fascism could quite possibly take the lite Mussolini-like form, sure. And I agree that the Russians and Japanese would be the most likey culprits of the really nasty stuff, for the reasons OW listed. OTOH, I tend to expect a totalitarian swing a most likely prerequisite for post-WWI French revanchism, if nothing else because it would be the hallmark of the rather fanatical swing in the French collective psyche that needs to happen in order to fulfill the scenario. In comparison to 1871, the revanchist struggle is going to look rather more uphill (Britain out of the mess, Germany strongest than ever, Italy stronger too and tied to Berlin at the waist), it needs France to go more revenge psychotic to be undergone.
I dunno about the other guys, but concerning Hurgan, not going to give any serious concern whatosoever to the lunatic ramblings of a paranoid conspiracy theorist Germanophobe Pole supremacist that basically seems to think Main Kampf was penned in all but name by Frederick II of Prussia and co-authored by Catherine II of Russia, modern Germany and the EU are secretly managed by SPECTRE cabals of neo-Nazi, and Poles are the real chosen people, singled out for persecution by evol neighbors on all sides since the Romans.