Central Powers victory in 1918

Part 1

Spring 1918, Foch is killed in the car crash that OTL seriously injured him.

During the Kaiserschlacht offensive, Petain and Haig carry out their original panicked respone of OTL and withdraw in different directions (OTL Foch over-ruled them).

German troops enter Paris, and France collapses. Whilst it might be potentially possible for France to shift its government to Bordeaux, fight on etc this is a France exhausted by 4 years of war and Clemenceau's government was the last throw of the political dice by Poincare. Munities, rebellions and strikes break out and France is forced to request an Armistice.

This causes in short order the collapse of the Salonika and North Italian fronts as the French forces either withdraw or collapse into chaos, and the British are forced to fall back.

Within France, the British and Americans establish a defensive line beyond and to the North of Paris, but their position is hopeless. With France having gone to the negotiating table, and with Britain almost as exhasuted as France is, the two Anglo powers open negotiations with the Central Powers

The immediate German requirement is for the lifting of the Blockade, the freedom from internment of its nationals and merchant ships, and the immediate import of food stuffs. This achieved the internal German situation never reaches breaking point.

Meanwhile in Vienna, a victorious Kaiser Karl I works furiously to quash potential rebellion with a less desperate version of OTL's October Manifesto

Part 2 in a sec

Grey Wolf

Part 2

The negotiated peace with Britain and the United States sees Germany commit to the restitution of Belgium, but this is the only victory that President Wilson can wring out of the whole sorry affair.

(Borrowing from my reply to another thread)... The USA is in a seriously bad financial position - France is probably never going to be able to repay its loans, Russia has already been written off, and Britain is so exhausted that any repayments are in the distant future.

Having led the nation to a shocking and ruinous defeat, Wilson's health breaks down and impeachment proceedings are begun against him. He dies before they come to trial, and President Marshal overseas a lame duck administration into the 1920 election which is won by Wilson's arch enemy Henry Cabot Lodge.

Lodge's administration is faced with a massive financial crisis, and worn down by this he dies in office a year earlier than OTL (1923), leaving another lame duck successor, this time Coolidge to handle the last year of his term.

Meanwhile, in Europe there are several different peace treaties. The defeated Allies and Associated Powers are forced to append their names to Brest-Litovsk and Bucharest, whilst their own separate agreements vary from no claims on the USA beyond reparation for German property, investments and shipping, to colonial adjustments from Britain, to a harsh peace on the defeated French.

As well as being stripped of a large segment of her colonial empire, France also loses the rest of Alsace-Lorraine and sees German occupation of the Brie ironfields. Her navy is turned over to the Germans and Austrians, and large reparations claimed.

Given the anarchy within French politics, this is almost an irrelevance in the short term as the French government is forced to rely on colonial, and even Allied, forces to suppress Bolshevik uprisings across the country.

Within Eastern Europe the new monarchies of Finland, Lithuania, Poland and the Ukraine are finalised, with German or Habsburg princes, whilst the Baltic provinces (Latvia and Estonia) are joined to the German Empire in a personal union with Grand Duke of Mecklenburg.

German and Austrian forces remain in the Ukraine and Caucasus, protecting the friendly regimes there.

In the Balkans, Bulgaria gains all of Serbian and Greek Macedonia, to add to the S Dobruja regained from Rumania at Bucharest. Greece is compensated with N Epirus (S Albania)

Part 3 in a sec

Grey Wolf

Part 3

Two Questions

1. Whither the rest the of the Balkans ? Montenegro had a foot in Vienna as well as with the Allies, but also had gained for itself an Austro-Hungarian governor during the war; what happens to it now ? Rump Serbia and rump Albania are also needing sorting out. Are they established as Austrian puppet states, or can Karl I afford to try to absorb any whilst at the same time trying to reform the government of the empire ?

2. The Ottoman Empire has also emerged victorious from this war. Its most obvious manifestation is in the Caucasus where Russian Armenia and Azerbaijan are annexed, giving the Ottomans Baku and a window on the Caspian. What happens elsewhere ? British troops are in Baghdad, and Palestine. Are they all withdrawn ? I could imagine so from Mesopotamia, but what about the Arab Revolt in the Hejaz ? Is that abandoned to its fate ? Also, is Cyprus ceded back to Ottoman rule ? What about Egypt and Libya ? And the Dodecanese ? Italy is not going to be in a very good position to protest anything

Grey Wolf

Part 3 - Possible Answers

OK, since I want to make some more suggestions I will try to answer my own questions.

1. I think the Central Powers will go for vassals here. IIRC King Nicholas of Montenegro had his second son in Vienna. Nicholas and his flamboyant heir Danilo will probably be forced to abdicate/renounce in exchange for allowing the dynasty to continue in a nominally independent Montenegro. Regarding Serbia, the Habsburgs hate the house of Karageorgevic. There are possible Obrenovic heirs available - one on the side of the late queen (not an Obrenovic but was adopted into the royal family) and one an illegitimate side branch. Albania - I suspect that William of Wied having de facto abdicated, another German princeling will be found for the rump of the country. With Greece satiated in the South, Serbia defeated and Italy also defeated, the new king will probably have things rather better than his predecessor

2. I am guessing that 'to the victor, the spoils' will rule here. Despite having lost control of the Hejaz, the Ottoman Empire will be reconfirmed as rulers of it. In defeat, even a negotiated one, the British Empire is going to have so many problems at home that it simply will not be able to keep men in the field when their sentiment is for immediate demobilisation (OTL there were several mutinies over delay, and that was in victory). Cyprus will be ceded by Britain, and Egypt once again come under dual Ottoman-British rule. The Senussi in Libya have been constant thorns in the side of the Italians throughout the war, and had they not split their efforts by attacking Egypt also, they would probably have driven the Italians out. I would expect that as terms of Italy's surrender Libya and the Dodecanese are retroceded to the Ottoman Empire

This leaves several areas of great interest :-

a) Central Asia where a mixture of native and pan-Turkic forces are at work

b) Russia itself where the White forces, such as they are in this ATL, will be left high and dry with immediate Allied withdrawal.

c) The Far East where Japan may well refuse to make any peace which doesn't include the retention of its conquests from Germany. They will also probably refuse to evacuate Vladivostock.

Anybody have any suggestions how these things will play out ?

Grey Wolf

Could the Germans, even in this ATL, have actually capitalised on their advantages using SCHUTZTRUPPEN during Op Michael from March 1918, to take Paris ? AFAIK, the German offensive, relying on the manpower of the individual German stormtrooper instead of the tank in WWII, eventually collapsed for this very reason due to the exhaustion of the SCHUTZTRUPPEN. Surely, even if Foch had been killed in a car accident, the Allied troops, esp the Aussies, Canucks, and Yanks, could still have fought on and ground the Germans down ?

Grey Wolf said:

Anybody have any suggestions how these things will play out ?

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By Spring 1918 it is probably too late for the Ottomans to recover their authority in the territories lost. The options would be to either forcibly reoccupy everything which may be beyond the resources and interests of the empire, or some sort of federal structure - sort of an Ottoman version of the Dual Monarchy could be established - this was an idea thrown around even before the war. An alternative would be to reestablish direct rule over Syria (which is still held) Palestine, and Iraq, but accept the Hejaz & Yemen as vassals.

Enver's Central Asian ambitions will almost certainly cause Ottoman intervention there. Historically, after the war, he single-handedly conquered a great deal of the former emirate of Bukhara - with Ottoman troops and resources, the entire region could be eliminated. Whether the are could be absorbed into the empire is doubtful, but a vassal state of some sort could probably be set up. I don't know if it would have the strength to resist the Soviets, however.

In any case, the Ottomans will retain Mosul and what is today Armenia and Azerbaijan, and likely be a dominant force in Persia. So the future looks good from the oil standpoint.

Melvin Loh said:

Could the Germans, even in this ATL, have actually capitalised on their advantages using SCHUTZTRUPPEN during Op Michael from March 1918, to take Paris ? AFAIK, the German offensive, relying on the manpower of the individual German stormtrooper instead of the tank in WWII, eventually collapsed for this very reason due to the exhaustion of the SCHUTZTRUPPEN. Surely, even if Foch had been killed in a car accident, the Allied troops, esp the Aussies, Canucks, and Yanks, could still have fought on and ground the Germans down ?

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I think you mean Sturmtruppen (storm troops) not Schutztrupppen, (protection forces, a term I only know from the German Colonies, which I would transfer as a Constabulary Force or something with a double use as light armed military/ police force

Grey Wolf said:

Part 2

Within Eastern Europe the new monarchies of Finland, Lithuania, Poland and the Ukraine are finalised, with German or Habsburg princes, whilst the Baltic provinces (Latvia and Estonia) are joined to the German Empire in a personal union with Grand Duke of Mecklenburg.

Grey Wolf

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I would say that Germany would not annex the Baltic states: Germans were a large minority, but not large enough, and given that Alsace-Lorraine gave continuing problems before the war (zabern affair), competition of the alsacian textile industry with the swabian,

i´d think east prussian junker would go nuts at the prospect of large estates+cheap labor=cheap grain IN the Empire, so that import fees couldn´t protect them.

But maybe we get rid of Mecklenburg-Strelitz in some way, ridiculous duchy.

Same aspect: Enlargement on the western side.

I have never really believed the often-quoted war plans, as I don´t think that they were a) really serious b) fully thought out c) written without the help of VERY MUCH ALCOHOL .


From the internel policy perspective, every enlargement of Germany does not make sense, with the exception of the incorporation of Austria, which is out of the debate with Kakanien still alive

While it would surely make sense to "get rid" of Strelitz, one did not simply do so in the Kaiserreich. The Empire conisted of its states, and was not divided into them, if you know what I mean....

As for annexations: Since the PoD is AFTER the peace of Brest-Litovsk, the baltic states and poland ARE already established as own states, if vasall states. I think annexing them now might be too much trouble for Germany, it could anger Wilsons USA.

And why would Great Britain agree to shifting colonial borders? It can hold out on its islands, no need to make concessions for them. I think the Germans are lucky if they get back their OWN colonies.

Susano said:

While it would surely make sense to "get rid" of Strelitz, one did not simply do so in the Kaiserreich. The Empire conisted of its states, and was not divided into them, if you know what I mean....

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We don´t even simply do so today, btw.

But I was thinking: The war, even with a positive outcome for Germany, would have been a catalysator for change.

As certain flaws of the constitution and financial responsibility (frankenstein) very quite obvious, would it have been possible to change several change:
Formation of Thuringia as IOTL,
change of the Reichsland status for Elsass-Lothringen,
reunification of strelitz with mecklenburg.

Even more so in the Empire, though.

And I think a war won could be more like a reassuration of "our way to handle things was the right one", and thus even prevent change - all in all, one does not change a winning system, heh.

Some more questions...

How likely is it that the Red Russians will be victorious over the Whites in this TL? While the Whites are in disarray from a lack of Allied supplies, I can't really see any German government putting up with a new 'Soviet Union' on its borders.

Also, what'll happen to Japan? Does anyone suppose the Kaiser would be stupid enough to try and get the Chinese and Pacific colonies back, or would they simply accept this as a tragic turn of events, and begin plotting immediately?

The Kaiser might indeed try so, however, I think he had lost a great deal of powe rto the military he was theoreticyll in charge of. And the general staff will surely think more realistic.

And while Germany surely would like to support the Whites, question is if tehy are cpable to do so after 4 years of war. I guess they will be contend to hold to their vasall states, and defend them against the Reds, but not doing anything directly in Russia.

Germany simply didn't have the capability to campaign in the Pacific. They'd need to negotiate for someone else's bases, and by the time they got there the Japanese would be in ontrol and ready to win a second Tsushima.

They'd probably make a face-saving deal whereby the Japanese would pay a nominal price to create an illusion that they'd purchased the colonies.

As to Russia, everything depends on teh attitude of teh German government, if they tolerate teh Bolsheviks then Lenin and co. are actually going to find it easier to win the Civil War in this ATL, the Whites have less areas to operate from and no supplies from the West.

Susano said:

Even more so in the Empire, though.

And I think a war won could be more like a reassuration of "our way to handle things was the right one", and thus even prevent change - all in all, one does not change a winning system, heh.

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Yes, but "personal regiment" has been blown out of the window by Wilhelm´s SUPPORTERS,

the social democrats and the Zentrum have helped the war effort a great deal, with the Sozis as largest faction since 1912, if I recall it correctly.
I would say that the administration would have looked for ways to adapt to "modern times".

BtW: Susano, what do you think when would we see woman´s suffrage?

Steffen said:

Yes, but "personal regiment" has been blown out of the window by Wilhelm´s SUPPORTERS,

the social democrats and the Zentrum have helped the war effort a great deal, with the Sozis as largest faction since 1912, if I recall it correctly.
I would say that the administration would have looked for ways to adapt to "modern times".

BtW: Susano, what do you think when would we see woman´s suffrage?

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Personal rule had gone, and been replaced by militaery rule. With the prestiege of the Hindenburg/Ludendorf combination massively reinforced by victory the General Stwaff would remain the real government for some years at least. Within the Reichstag the Soialists will become stronger, but probably not strong enough to IMMEDIATELY attempt to shift Germany towards a more truly democratic system. By the late 20s, however, I'd expect thingas to begin to change.

Pacific

Japan is only Allied Power that accually got all its war aims, perhaps a seperate treaty with Germany, Germany cedes its Pacific & China Claims in return for a token Payment from Japan.

Japan sent its troops to Russia [Siberia] to Surrport the legal Gov't of Russia, , Given the USSR restores order perhaps a settlement where Japan regonizes the USSR & exits Siberia, in return for Russian regonitzion of Japan's claim to Sahkilin and Kurile Islands.

I think victory in the war will be a massive defeat for the SPD, even if they supported the war. Because first and foremost the general staff and the Kaiser will get the glory. Indeed, they can use the military victory to push through some of tehir own agendas - but I dont think shifting state countries within the empire belongs to it.

hmm... sounds like this POD is going to lead to a lot of turmoil in Europe (among the defeated allies anyway) and a big surge of isolationism in the US. Is the Great Depression going to come along as in OTL, or is it worse/better/no different? No WW2 as we know it... there will probably be some kind of war though, as Britain and France are going to be itching for revenge....

Regarding the 'Baltic Duchy' this was set up in OTL, and the Grand Duke of Mecklenburg-Schwerin approached to rule them in a personal union. I believe they would have been OUTSIDE of the German Empire, however, but tied inexorably to it. Don't forget that in OTL German Freikorps AND government-supported units fought in Estonia and Latvia in 1919 against the Soviets at the express desire of the German barons of these provinces; they almost succeeded in creating vassal states even then, even after everything the country had been through.

I think Mathew is probably right about Japan - the Supreme Command will over-rule the Kaiser's funk overr Tsingtao and Japan will be invited to 'buy' the colonies. There would probably still be haggling over German economic concessions in Shantung, but perhaps an equitable deal could be reached in return for Germany allowing Japan a free hand in Siberia.

Regarding the SPD, I believe they are going to be in difficulties in the immediate term. The famous solidarity has been broken as they split into Majority and Independent Socialists, and the wartime coalition of centre and right wing parties can be shown to be victorious. Expect someone like the National Liberals and Stresseman to gain in the immediate term at the SPD's expense.

John, thank you for your input on the Ottomans So, an autonomous Hejaz is established ? Interesting ! And the possibility of a revived Bokhara, whose survival depends on what happens in the Russian civil war

Grey Wolf