This is an interesting discussion, let’s expand on it...
"As I listened to the words of this long-dead poet, I felt a curious kinship of the spirit with him. I understood his pride and petty conceits, I admired his bold vision, forgave his wilder flights of fancy and his more obvious exaggerations, and was held captive by the story-web he wove about me."
In 1972 Wilbur Smith wrote a book, entitled the Sunbird, about a group of Punic refugees who escape the Third Punic War (the final destruction of Carthage) and end up building a violent but brilliant little civilisation in central Botswana. This Neo-Punic civilisation (known as Opet after the legendary land of gold) was brought to an abrupt end by an ingenious military figure during the great Bantu
migration sometime in the 4th century AD. The whole book was more of a kind of extended metaphor for the mythology that had been constructed by white South Africans (largely the Afrikaans) during the apartheid era rather than a serious take on what would have happen if such an implausible event were to occur .
Let us at this moment apply a little more **serious*** thought to this possible POD and let us see what happens...
The Prologue
So two biremes escape the bloodbath that is Carthage in 146 BC and flee to where Hamilcar lay fretting and storm-bound at Hippo. After explaining the fate that befell Hasdrubal and the rest of the people at Carthage, Hamilcar decides to flee with his fifty-nine great ships (containing 9,000 men, women and children as well as what is presumably the "tool-kit" of Mediterranean civilisation) down the
coast of Africa. In the Wilbur Smith Version (WSV) these Punic refugees plan to settle in some mythological land described by Hanno some three hundred years before these events. I find this kind of reasoning a little hard to credit, a more logical plan would be to sail around Africa (by hugging the coast) to reach Egypt and the Near East (done before as has been pointed out by others in this forum so it is not an unrealistic suggestion and the Carthaginians have supporters in Hellenistic kingdoms of the Near East).
The voyage lasts two years, as they made slow progress down the western coast of Africa. There were a thousand hardships and dangers to meet and overcome. Savage tribes, animals and disease when they landed, and shoals and currents, winds and calms upon the sea. They voyaged southwards to where the land turned back upon itself and a great flat-topped mountain guarded the southern Cape. Here a sudden gale out of the north-west smashed several of the refugee fleet upon the rocks below the mountain and damages many others. The
survivors sought the shelter of the harbour and strike up a settlement there until their ships could be repaired. After a few failed attempts it becomes apparent that refitting their damaged ships to survive the temped weather of the Cape of Storms proves near impossible and the survivors, tired of their endless and perilous journey, decide to make their settlement permanent (let us say they call it Opet like in the WSV for the sake of symmetry). Their buildings were of thatch and mud and they planted corn, olives and grapes in the dark rich earth.
The Opet civilisation is largely confined to the Cape area as the lands beyond have a summer-rain fall in which the winter-rain crops of the Punic refugees won't grow. Which means that the hinterland will come to be populated by a pastoral people that are fixated on cattle (we assume that the Punic refugees brought some domestic cattle with them or at least pick some up along the way) and a "roam free” ideology. Seafaring would probably soon cease to be part of Opet tradition, as the South African coast lacks natural harbours, so contact with the outside world is minimal.
The Natives
When the Opetians (or do you think Opetites is better?) encountered the San(1), interaction between the two peoples lead eventually to warfare and the San are driven into the more remote parts of the region or taken as slaves. The relative extinction of the San cannot only be blamed on the Opetians as the arrival of the KhoiKhoi(2) in the region about 300 BC had already kicked started the process . In contrast to the San, interaction between the Opetians and the KhoiKhoi through both trade and warfare which leads to a large degree of cultural integration, assimilation and exchange. This process creates the KhoiKhoi-Punic peoples (can anyone think of a better name than KhoiKhoi-Punic?) a racial mixed group that was a clear fission of both Punic and KhoiKhoi cultures (the Punic having the dominant influence). It is these people that came to dominate the
interior.
A New Military-Industrial Package
The KhoiKhoi-Punic peoples have two distinct advantages over the previous KhoiKhoi: horses and iron. The horse is not native to sub-Saharan Africa, and the disease environment of the continent - particularly the tsetse fly - hindered efforts to introduce Asian, North African or European breeds during period of European colonisation. However the Mediterranean climate of the Cape and relatively disease free Central Plateau of South Africa mean that the initial horse populations brought by the Punic refugees multiple and thrive in these "safe" environments before moving into the more challenging interior. In time, as the surviving herds grow more disease-resistant and numerous, the KhoiKhoi-Punic of the interior culled and selectively bred them. By the end of the 1st century AD, generations of selection had produced a hardy breed of horse uniquely suited to southern Africa(3). This new breed will not be as large or as fast as Eurasian breeds but tough enough to carry a man at good speed.
These horse-riding iron-wielding KhoiKhoi-Punic peoples envelope their rival KhoiKhoi on the southern African savannah and by the end of the 3rd century AD stretched from shining sea to shining sea (the KhoiKhoi- Punic "cultural zone" is roughly Namibia, the Central Plateau in South Africa -Lesotho, Swaziland and what was once the Transvaal and the Orange Free State- as well as parts of Zimbabwe and KwaZulu-Natal). The Zambezi River serves as a barrier for the spread of the KhoiKhoi- Punic and their horses (as the disease climate beyond is too tough for this recent African migrant). The horse influenced OTL techniques of
South African cattle herding, allowing riders to maintain greater control over larger herds spread throughout a wider area. Although KhoiKhoi-Punic communities grow larger and more complex as the pasture that was manageable to each increases, these largely pastoral semi-nomadic peoples lack the summer-rain crops (and thus the population density) to establish organised states like Opet in the Cape.
The Great Bantu Migration
By the last centuries BC the advancing Bantu migration had reached the East African coast, encountering a melting pot of Afroasiatic and Nilo-Saharan farmers and herders. In East Africa the Bantu began to acquire millet and sorghum as well as cattle (their own cattle had been lost to tsetse flies while crossing the forests of Congo Basin) and the knowledge of iron smelting from their new neighbours.
Because competing with the numerous Nilo-Saharan and Afroasiatic Iron farmers was difficult stuff, the Bantu move southward towards the less densely populated country of the KhoiKhoi-Punic. In the 5th century AD these Bantu-speaking peoples migrated from the north through the Zambezi River Valley and into the plateau and coastal areas (bringing with them new diseases that greatly destabilise KhoiKhoi-Punic society).
In the OTL, the Bantu engulfed the largely hunter-gathering KhoiKhoi in what was undoubtedly a rapid and dramatic expansion. In the ATL, this is all but impossible given the more advance military-industrial package that the ATL KhoiKhoi (the KhoiKhoi-Punic) possess. Instead the two societies steal and borrow the advances of the other, merging their separate societies and giving birth to a new unique Bantu- KhoiKhoi-Punic civilisation (again can anyone think of a better name?).
This cultural intermarriage combines the summer-crops of the Bantu with KhoiKhoi-Punic horses, allowing the Bantu-KhoiKhoi-Punic to support much higher population densities than their neighbours. New lands are broken to the plough as the introduction of the horse to traditional slash-and-burn Bantu agriculture produces new farming techniques amidst a minor agro-revolution. By the end of the 7th century AD, many Bantu-KhoiKhoi-Punic peoples begin to turn away from the semi-nomadic lifestyle of their forefathers and establish more permanent settlements. However successive waves of Bantu moving southward is a constant source of destabilisation for the Bantu- KhoiKhoi-Punic and their settlements are under constant threat. In time this lack of security will produce the ingenuity that shaped the walled city-states of the southern Africa.
Thoughts?
(1) A hunter gather people with simplistic Stone Age technology and a rich oral history
(2)The KhoiKhoi (lit. "men of men") are a migrating group with knowledge of pastoralism -there are serious disputes among historians as to the time frame of the KhoiKhoi migration and therefore I have made an educated guess of their arrival. In the OTL they intermarried with the hunter-gatherer San, to the point where drawing a clear line between the two groups became impossible (prompting the use of the term Khoisan).
(3) In OTL, horses were successfully introduced to Zimbabwe and South Africa by nineteenth-century European settlers. In addition, Namibia is home to several herds of wild horses descended from German cavalry horses, who have survived despite the presence of tsetse flies. Sub-Saharan Africa isn't a particularly horse-friendly environment, which is probably why there aren't any indigenous breeds, but imported horses have managed to survive there. I attribute this piece of wisdom to the elegant Jonathan I. Edelstein.