Yellowstone erupts.
Actually, considering the capability to make underground shelters exists by this time, making humanity dead to the last man is quite hard.
"Yellowstone erupts" is not enough. Remember, Western/central USA =/= World!
However an eruption in the early 1980s with Soviets thinking that USA is distracted enough for a land grab in Western Europe may do the trick.
...Impossible.
Earlier species jump of AIDS with it being unnoticed.
As well as that, nuclear war with the only survivors being infected with AIDS.
Yellowstone erupting can certainly fuck up the climate and throw economy and order into disarray.
To be honest, and I know I may be giving science the middle finger a bit here, some really fucked up global tectonic disaster a la 2012 may help, although god knows if geology permits. Perhaps a massive solar flare, although I don't know if that violates the OP.
Solar flare will fuck up a lot as well, but not to the "desired" degree. You need the sun to go nova.
That's a bit overkill - α Centauri A going followed by 61 Cygni A the appropriate amount of time later* would probably do it as well, without the slow-roasting the entire planet stuff. (Obviously a total die-off of humanity is going to necessarily entail killing a lot of other critters with gamma rays, but at least under this scenario black smoker ecosystems and the like would survive, as opposed to the oceans boiling instantly.)
*However long you need to rotate the other face of the planet into view. It's surprising how many of the very nearby main-sequence stars are in the southern hemisphere.
About 1% of the human population is born immune to HIV, as their T-Cells lack the protein that the HIV virus latches on to.Even in that latter horrible idea, humans would survive.
In time either people would be born with immunities to hiv, or it would just become a backdrop virus. Maybe something that never goes away but the immune system of these people keeps it from ever becoming aids.
There is nowhere near enough energy stored in the crust tensions for that. Not by several orders of magnitude.
Solar flare will fuck up a lot as well, but not to the "desired" degree. You need the sun to go nova.
I would assume that the gamma radiation may be deadly in the open, but wouldn't deep enough underground structures protect enough people for a "breeding population"? Of course there is the small problem of feeding them after the earth surface has been effectively sterilized. Assuming that some grain survived in protected space to be used for a seed stock, would it grow well enough after the subsurface microflora in the soil has been eradicated?
To wipe out life on earth, you would need an impact by an asteroid that punctures the crust, releasing trapped toxic gasses like sulfur dioxide to poison the atmosphere.