No Sugar Cane 1740's ->

DuQuense · Dec 24, 2009

[Idea from the 1st world Caribbean thread]

Lets assume that Some Bug [Bug/Mold/Fungus/etc] develops that attacks Sugar Cane. The Sugar Cane industry collapses like cotton post Boll Weevil.
By 1760's the Sugar Islands are devastated [plus south US & north Brazil]

1763 France wants Quebec back and not depressed, worthless French West Indies.
No great import of slaves into Cuba post 1814 return to Spain.
Different slaves dealings in Brazil.
Collapse of American Sugar Plantations in 1750 ~ 1760's changes Georgia and ARW.
No Sugar Cane plantations in Hawaii late 1800's.

?Other Changes you see?

arctic warrior · Dec 24, 2009

Copenhagen is severely affected as it was the European station for the produce of the Danish West Indies and european distribution point.
A lot less wealth because of this.

Slavery - probably it will be affected early on due to failed crops thus less need of slaves from Africa but as the planters shift to intensive labour crops such as cotton the trafficking may resume.

Hendryk · Dec 24, 2009

This would speed up research in the industrial-scale extraction of sugar from beets, which in OTL wasn't perfected until 1812, though the basic idea was around since 1590. If we assume large-scale production of sugar beets in Europe from the mid-to-late 18th century, this may alter the economic development of certain regions, and also reduce to some extent the incentive for emigration, since cultivating the sugar beet is a labor-intensive process.

Hierophant · Dec 24, 2009

Is it possible you might see Caribbean slaves offloaded onto plantations on the mainland, in the US, Brazil or the Spanish Americas? I'm sure some Caribbean slaveholders will want to sell off the only valuable thing they have to cover their losses as they switch over to another cash crop.

And what crop would it be? They already grew tobacco and cotton to a lesser extent. When did the pineapple and banana industries take off?

Valdemar II · Dec 24, 2009

arctic warrior said:
Copenhagen is severely affected as it was the European station for the produce of the Danish West Indies and european distribution point.
A lot less wealth because of this.

Slavery - probably it will be affected early on due to failed crops thus less need of slaves from Africa but as the planters shift to intensive labour crops such as cotton the trafficking may resume.

I agree we will see a much poorer Denmark, but also Netherland in this periode. Through many of the effects that Hendrik mentions will have positive effect later on.

Hendryk said:
This would speed up research in the industrial-scale extraction of sugar from beets, which in OTL wasn't perfected until 1812, though the basic idea was around since 1590. If we assume large-scale production of sugar beets in Europe from the mid-to-late 18th century, this may alter the economic development of certain regions, and also reduce to some extent the incentive for emigration, since cultivating the sugar beet is a labor-intensive process.

Interesting enough sugar beet production demand a signinficant level of proto-modern industry, which mean that areas with soil good for beet production will likely see a increased earlier urbanisation. For Denmark and Netherland which both have areas of high urbanisation and good soil for beet production and easier transportation we likely see a significant economical growth (making somewhat up for the loss of sugar production in Caribbian), when the sugar extration has been build up, beside that we like se the same in Flandern and Nord-Pas-de-Calais which also have good soil for it (at least to my understanding), but worse transportation. In Germany the area around Magdeburg are well known for it beet production and it placed along the Elb which give it excellent potential for transportation and unified under one state, I imagine that area will also become a major centre of production. Much of the Northen Rhineland also have good soil for it, but it's too split to really build up the potential industry for extraction.

Justin Green said:
Is it possible you might see Caribbean slaves offloaded onto plantations on the mainland, in the US, Brazil or the Spanish Americas? I'm sure some Caribbean slaveholders will want to sell off the only valuable thing they have to cover their losses as they switch over to another cash crop.

And what crop would it be? They already grew tobacco and cotton to a lesser extent. When did the pineapple and banana industries take off?

It's a good question what labour intentive industries can replace sugar and how will it effect the slave trade. Cotton wasn't a big enough deal yet, tobacco doesn't seem that labour intentive, and in USA seem to have been produced by small freeholders (maybe we see the slaves freed and given small plots to produce other cash crops!?)

Hendryk · Dec 25, 2009

Valdemar II said:
Interesting enough sugar beet production demand a signinficant level of proto-modern industry, which mean that areas with soil good for beet production will likely see a increased earlier urbanisation.

Indeed, many parts of northern Europe are well-suited to the cultivation of sugar beets; and quite a few of those suffered from rural overpopulation in OTL, resulting in mass emigration to the New World. In TTL the beet sugar industry would create local employment opportunities.

DuQuense · Dec 25, 2009

I was expecting a discussion of the Caribean, Haiti and Napolean, earlier end to the slave trade.
Instead I get a discussion of Industrialization of North Europe.

One of the Neato things about AH.com.

Valdemar II · Dec 25, 2009

Another aspect are that if the "bug" are bad enough to spread over the entire caribian, it likely also hit the sugar cane in the rest of the world, so the new sugar beet producing Europe, has just become the primary source of sugar in the world, Europe has just found something which can replace precious metal in their trade with East. Of course for China this are good news, because it will keep the British from starting the opium trade if it can buy and produce sugar in Europe and sell it in China (of course Hanover will likely be the primary prodution area leading to a closer integration of Hanover). Which means that the European incentiment for a violent opening of China has been lowered.
This PODs big losers are going to be Spain, the Ottoman Empire and Portugal which has lost most of their ability to produce sugar*, removing a source of income. The winners are France, Austria(-"Belgium"), Hanover and Prussia which has the size, climate and infrastructure to begin a early production. Denmark and Netherland (even through their colonies has lost a lot of their economical worth) also get some benefits by a greater focus on proto-industrialisation making them more ready to join the Industrial Revolution.

*through it may raise the importance of some colder and higher areas, where the crops can be grown.

pompejus · Dec 25, 2009

Valdemar II said:
Denmark and Netherland (even through their colonies has lost a lot of their economical worth)

For some reason it looks like you overestamate sugarcane production for the Dutch economy. Yes it was important and it will most certainly means the end of the WIC (again) and probably the collapse of the Dutch west Indies, but sugarcane wasn't that important for the Dutch economy. It will suffer, of course, but the spice and other trade of the Dutch east Indies (Indonesia) was far more important as was the baltic trade.

Gladi · Dec 25, 2009

Bright day
Bohemia can grow sugar beet for Austria and well enough (And Slovakia, dunno about other areas of empire, we dedicated entire year of "middle school" geography to former federation, but not the empire), though ITTL you may see a less of industrial concetration if the industries start elsewhere due to beets. Regadless of that if it causes some sort of "village industrialism" which was aprt of Austria OTL, it will advance several cases. The national case is unique to Austria.

In cities the germanization is still occuring and will not go into reverse untill late 18th century and even then many Czech national leaders of 19th cnetury were born in german-speaking households (for a given value of "german"). But the fertile countryside is speaking Czech. On one hand the "Czech" inteligentsia is mostly thinking in german (though there has been lately evidence of more robust cultural life than previoulsy thought). On the other hand Germans are not yet calling Slavs incapable of knowing truth, beauty, love or God. EDIT: There has also not been Maria Theresa's education reforms, oh vey- this can be interesting.

Valdemar II · Dec 25, 2009

pompejus said:
For some reason it looks like you overestamate sugarcane production for the Dutch economy. Yes it was important and it will most certainly means the end of the WIC (again) and probably the collapse of the Dutch west Indies, but sugarcane wasn't that important for the Dutch economy. It will suffer, of course, but the spice and other trade of the Dutch east Indies (Indonesia) was far more important as was the baltic trade.

I don't see the Netherland collapsing but the loss of sugar canes are a serious blow (through the benefits of the new native production will likely be better in the long term). It's interesting what kind of production will take over in the West Indiis instead (cacao, tobacco, cotton?).

Gladi said:
Bright day
Bohemia can grow sugar beet for Austria and well enough (And Slovakia, dunno about other areas of empire, we dedicated entire year of "middle school" geography to former federation, but not the empire), though ITTL you may see a less of industrial concetration if the industries start elsewhere due to beets. Regadless of that if it causes some sort of "village industrialism" which was aprt of Austria OTL, it will advance several cases. The national case is unique to Austria.

Good point through I think Fladern will be the first Austrian sugar producing region, the rest of the Habsburg domains will likely also end up producing it (through outside Czechia most of the soil are inferior for the production compared to Flandern*), of course I imagine that Czechia will mostly produce to internal needs (in Austria, Czechia and Hungary), while Flandern will focus on export (resulting in a major capital infusions in the Habsburg domains). If this hit at the same time as Joseph and Maria-Theresa economical reform (which I think it will). We could likely see the Austrian proto-industrialisation under their rule turn into the Industrial Revolution before the Napoleons Wars. Through this may also make Maria Theresa ready to behave more agressive in the War of Bavarian Succesion (mostly it was the enourmous upkeep of the army which made her force Joseph to back down). Beside this will put Joseph in a much better position to force his reforms through.

In cities the germanization is still occuring and will not go into reverse untill late 18th century and even then many Czech national leaders of 19th cnetury were born in german-speaking households (for a given value of "german"). But the fertile countryside is speaking Czech. On one hand the "Czech" inteligentsia is mostly thinking in german (though there has been lately evidence of more robust cultural life than previoulsy thought). On the other hand Germans are not yet calling Slavs incapable of knowing truth, beauty, love or God.

I imagine that either it will develop as in OTL or we see the Czech not turn into Germans but into Austrians. So we get a identity more based on French nationalism (national identity based on the state) rather than German nationalism (state based on national identity). It would be a world where Bohemians would celebrate their Slavic/Czech heritage while speaking German.

*Through production are still quite possible.

pompejus · Dec 26, 2009

Valdemar II said:
I don't see the Netherland collapsing but the loss of sugar canes are a serious blow (through the benefits of the new native production will likely be better in the long term). It's interesting what kind of production will take over in the West Indiis instead (cacao, tobacco, cotton?).

Oh yes, the Netherlands will suffer, but I think they will suffer as much as the French and Britain. I think that mainly the Guyana colony (Surinam) will suffer as I believe many of the islands were already used for other things like salt and slavetrade.