Great War: East First

[miketr]

I had posted this time line on another pair of forum's some time ago. I am going to attempt to restart the time line here. The base of this time line is, "what if the Germans decided on a Russia first stance before the Great War?" I have the time line up through 1913 and a few naval battles for WW1 itself done. I am well aware that many have done this, it is just my versio.

As the years go by the sections get longer as the POD force larger changes to the time line. Many items posted are not POD but historic events I include to make the TimeLine read better. I will post updates for the time line here a little bit at a time to give people a chance to read and comment if they so choose.

Regards,
Michael

1906

“A General European War of murder, a massacre whose horror can only make one shudder to think… It will be a People’s War that cannot be won in one decisive battle but will turn into a long, difficult, painful struggle.” -Helmut von Moltke 1905 on the nature of the next war.

January 1st, Helmut von Moltke nephew of the Helmut von Moltke Chief of the Great General Staff from the German Wars of Unification succeeds Schlieffen as Chief of the Great General Staff.

April, Heads of STAVKA and Conseil supérieur de la Guerre holds the first of annual summer meetings to coordinate cooperation and planning between French and Russian militaries.

April 7th, Algeciras conference on Morocco ends and it is clear that Germany has suffered a major diplomatic defeat and is in fact largely isolated.

Spring, Eulenburg scandal rocks Germany

POD
June, Summer Staff ride, Moltke does two runs of a campaign vs. France. The first sends the entire army except 10 divisions in a great wheel through Belgium; the remaining 10 divisions plus 10 Italian Divisions hold the line in Elsaß-Lothringen. The result was a German victory if just. The second test of the campaign has Moltke removing 10 divisions from the right wing to reinforce either the left wing in Elsaß-Lothringen to cover Italy not honoring its alliance or to defend in the East vs. Russia. The result is a stalling of the German attack and it then being driven back when 50 Battalions of a British Expeditionary Force and 66 French Battalions of the Garrisons of Paris and Northern Coasts join the battle at D + 35. A number question the assumptions that the second staff ride operated under.

June 5, Third Naval Law passed, number of large cruisers for Foreign Service increased by 5 ships, Material Reserve by 1 ship.


June 6, Beginning of discussions between Britain and Russian on reducing tensions between the two nations.

Summer, Engineering and Fortress Intelligence Section of German General Staff presents a report to Moltke that current French and Belgian forts can only be defeated by 12” siege mortars; of which the army has only six and the new forts being built in France are immune to the siege mortars.

August, Moltke asks for increased funding for training, expanded support services and more artillery in particular guns heavy enough to defeat the new French forts. War Minister Karl von Einem rejects most of the requests as the army is already engaged in a replacement of all uniforms with Feldgrau and new field artillery to be finished in 1907. All Moltke gets is the funding for increased training at this time with a vague promise to work on support increases as the budget allows. Krupp is asked to work on a 420mm siege mortar at its own cost.

Autumn, Annual maneuvers held for the army. Moltke returns to the issue of breaching French defenses in the west and orders the umpires to lean towards the defenders. The result is a fiasco with the attacker formations shredded by machinegun and dug in artillery fire. The aftermath has Moltke in internal memoranda beginning to question the ability of the war plan to work. A number of army officers including Moltke start to suggest a Russia first option as the main war plan; a return to the school of thought form the 1880’s and 1890’s. Soon fierce battles are being waged in military journals and in private between pro-west and pro-east factions of the army; in time Schlieffen writing under a pseudonym enters the fray.

December 2nd, HMS Dreadnought enters service

1907

“…In the coming century the German people will be a hammer or an anvil.” - Bernhard von Bülow 1899 to conclude a speech before the Reichstag

January 1, Eyre Crowe's (British Foreign Office) memorandum on English interest in preserving balance of power and joining 2nd most powerful country in Europe (France); comments on German foreign policy and confrontation possible. HMS Temeraire laid down at royal dockyard, Devonport.

January 25, Reichstag elections
Party Seats
Centre Party 105
German Conservative Party 60
National Liberal Party 54
Social Democratic Party of Germany 43
Freeminded People's Party 28
Deutsche Reichspartei 24
Polish regionalist 20
Anti-Semites 16
Freeminded Union 14
Farmers 8
Alsatian regionalists 7
German People's Party 7
Economy Party 5
Other 3
German-Hanoverian Party 1
Bavarian Peasants' League 1
Danish Regionalists 1
Total 397

February 6, HMS Superb laid down at Armstrong, Elswick.

February, Russian Second Duma meets for the first time

April, Eulenberg scandal spreads, Hardin accuses three of the Kaiser's aides-de-camp of homosexuality

May, Duma dissolved by the Tsar

June 1, SMS Rheinland laid down at Vulcan Stettin

June 15, Second Hague Peace Conference Opens. Summer staff ride in Germany see’s Moltke consider an offensive into Congress Poland. Many issues need to be considered but for right now considering the state of the Russian army it is expected to consist of little or than an occupation. Moltke writes a letter to Conrad von Hötzendorf to reopen joint staff talks dormant since the late 1890’s.

June, summer maneuvers in France leave many unhappy at the state of the troops. Ever since the two year army service law was passed in 1904 many have felt that the troops are just not receiving enough training to make them into proper soldiers. A number of junior officers lash out in print at what they view as socialist anti-military restrictions on the army.

July 22, SMS Nassau laid down at Howaldtswerke Kiel

July 30, Russo-Japanese War ends; Russia begins focusing on Balkans instead of Far East for influence peddling

August 12, SMS Westfalen laid down at Weser Danzig

August, the Grand Maneuvers are held for the Italian Army, many foreign observers report upon an exceptionally low standard of drill and discipline in the Italian troops, fouling of weapons by allowing dirt in the barrel and breach, almost no existent fire training, poor discipline, highly unimaginative maneuvers and repeated cases of formations getting lost very quickly. A debate among observers as to whether the Italian or Russian army is the worst major army in Europe, as the 1907 British Army handbook on the Russian army neatly puts it, the officer corps was made of the nations rejects, its NCO’s uneducated and inadequate and the common soldiers while hardy are insubordinate.

August 31, Anglo-Russian Entente; agreement over Persia, Afghanistan, and Tibet

October, fall maneuver in Germany sees one of the two corps use Linear tactics and the results are such that even the Kaiser called the display abysmal. This reinforces the view in France that the German army while highly disciplined is ridged and overly focused on old tactics and massed cavalry charges; especially when the Kaiser takes the field with his favorite arm the cavalry. The debate over open order tactics vs. linear is reignited once more.

October 23, Trial of Hardin (Moltke-Hardin trial) for libel begins in Berlin (dropped on technicality); Kaiser upset by trial and implications

November 11, Kaiser reluctantly visits England during Eulenberg scandal and interviewed by Haldane of the Daily Telegraph.

[miketr]

A major change occurs in German Politics

1908

“You English, are mad, mad, mad as March hares…” Kaiser Wilhelm II from an interview in London Daily Telegraph on October 28, 1908

“And haven’t you learned yet that His Majesty’s personal wishes are often sheer nonsense?” Bernhard von Bülow response to a minister who was to vet the interview before publication but didn’t because the Kaiser wanted it published as is, October 29, 1908

Rest of year, the debate in German army over tactics and strategic focus blows hot and cold at various points. Repeatedly those in favor of one view will speak to the emperor to gain his support; a viewpoint of which he will favor till the next individual corners him to talk about another viewpoint. This lack of a stance by the emperor annoys many.

January 3, Hardin's second trial ends with a conviction for libel; ordered to prison but set free on bond

March 3, SMS Von der Tann laid down at Blohm & Voss, Hamburg

April 1, Richard Haldane Secretary of State for War establishes the Territorial Army, its strength to be of 14 divisions and 14 brigades of mounted yeomanry; this force is scene only as a defense force for the British Isles. Imperial General Staff established and what will be later known as the British Expeditionary Force established to allow the army to fight on the continent.

April 8, Asquith becomes Prime Minister

April 2, HMS Vanguard laid down at Vickers, Barrow

June 8, Eulenberg charged with perjury in Hardin case and arrested

June 14, Fourth German Navy Law (Novelle 1908) ratified and it establishes a battleship building tempo of three per year till 1912

June 29, Hardin's second libel trial begins but is suspended in September, resumed the summer of 1909 and then postponed indefinitely again due to Eulenberg being too ill to stand trial

July, Young Turks come to power and offer to become allies with Britain but are rebuked by Churchill

July 2, Izvolski of Russia offers to support Austria annexation of Bosnia and Hercegovina if Austria would support Russian intentions on the "Straits"

August 19, Austrian Government decides to annex Bosnia and Hercegovina

September 15, Meeting at Buchlau (Buchlov) between Izvolski and Aehrenthal (of Austria) to discuss Balkans and Straits

Fall, Russian army will not finish re-equipment with new model artillery till 1909. Also latest round of draftees is still receiving substandard training because of lack of funds. French Military Attaché notes Russian army will be incapable of offensive action for years to come.

October 2, Details of Buchlau Agreement given to Russian Council of Ministers; Council upset

October 5, Bulgaria declares itself independent of Turkey

October 6, Austria proclaims annexation of Bosnia and Hercgovina; Izvolsky feels humiliated following blunt German diplomatic rebuttals that follow

October 8, Hardin publishes article on Wilhelm titled “William the Peaceful” and it castigates the failings of government, the emperor for his love of pomp over substance and compares him to a dog with all bark and no bite and that rest of Europe knew it to be true.

October 19, SMS Ostfriesland laid down at Wilhelmshaven Naval Yard

October 28, Daily Telegraph interview of Wilhelm II published creates backlash in Germany

October 29, Einem remarks that the interview was hardly a disaster but was in fact necessary as it or something like it is necessary to reign in the emperor. Officers are openly talking about a need to make a major change in government. A number of officers are of the opinion that if faced with the decision to go to war that the emperor will, “chicken out” instead. There are calls for a new chancellor, someone that can restore the prestige of the government and Germany, a general.

November 7, SMS Thuringen laid down at Weser, Bremen

November 10-11, Reichstag debates on Daily Telegraph Affair. Social Democrat Party calls for the government to be answerable to the Reichstag. Several other parties openly question the competence of the government and the emperor.

November, With the new Maschinengewehr 08 ready for deployment funding is sought to obtain enough to give Germany one 6 gun section per regiment; currently besides fortress and cavalry regiments there are only twelve experimental sections for the rest of the army. Einem sighting cost problems instead only agrees to one section per brigade and no funding till 1911 as part of the new 5-year army budget; “The General Staff and Technical Services wanted new unit right away and could afford to ignore costs and political considerations. But for me the matter cannot be settled with such a simple solution to the question. I have to consider it from the financial and political point of view, and additional bear in mind that the military administration can only impose its image the less it changes the opinions it lays before the legislature. It must therefore approach the latter only with properly matured projects.” This response angers many within army; especially as just about every other army in Europe moves to assign machinegun sections to regiments.

November 14, Following a confrontation with the Chancellor over public speaking Wilhelm II has a nervous break down and retires from duties for the next month.

December 7, SMS Moltke laid down at Blohm & Voss, Hamburg

December 24, SMS Helgoland laid down at Howaldtswerke, Kiel

December 31, a meeting by top generals of the German army is held to discuss the situation about the emperor, the situation within and without of Germany and the armies own divisions. Also the army’s on going budget problems is discussed. The consensus is that the bickering needs to end and the emperor can’t be trusted to make important decisions. The reich’s government needs new leadership…

1909

“It is to be foreseen that the moment may come when the patience of he Monarchy in the face of Serbia’s provocations will come to an end. Then nothing will remain but for the Monarchy to march into Serbia.” –Moltke in a Letter to Conrad

All Russian field artillery units now equipped with 76.2mm MK II field guns with recoil system.

January to March, Moltke exchanging a series of nine letters with Conrad saying that if Russia mobilizes over Bosnia, Germany will as well. Since 1907 there had been low level talks between the two but the annexation crises caused for more detailed talks to occur. Moltke gives Conrad a firm assurance that in the event of a war with both France and Russia, Germany will put her primary effort vs. Russia. The two military chiefs make general agreements for numbers of troops to face Russia and for a meeting of both staffs to draw up detailed combined plans for a joint offensive vs. Russia in the event of war. The joint staff meetings are to be delayed till after the crises has passed at the request of Austro-Hungarian Foreign Minister Aehrenthal to avoid adding undo alarm of the public if word leaks out.

From retirement Count Schlieffen writes a paper titled “War in the Present” where Germany faces encirclement by its enemies and only way to survive is military might and a swift victory on the battlefield. The army divided into westlich and östlich camps reacts quickly to the two events; the battle is rejoined once more over which direction to attack in the event of war. Moltke seeing no other option begins to take steps to attempt to maneuver out those in opposition to his plans. Einem objects to what he calls an attempted purge of the army and interferes with Moltke’s efforts.

January 19, HMS Neptune laid down at Portsmouth Navy Yard

February, HMS Bellerophon enters service

February 1, Germany buys Z1 from the Zeppelin Company

February 23rd, HMS Indefatigable laid down at Devonport Dock Yard.

February 9, Franco-German Agreement over Morocco recognizing French political and German economic rights there

February 26, French Ambassador to Russia tells Russian Government that the Bosnian situation should not be any of Russia or France's concern

March, The joint parliaments of Austria and Hungary motivated since the annexation crises began and a series of special spending measures passed for long delayed new equipment. When the crisis is over bills for new field artillery and machineguns are approved; the later was to be one section per regiment except for the Jager battalions which received one section each. Conrad with Moltke assurance in hand focuses his attention on planning a campaign to destroy the southern slavs (Montenegro and Serbia) and face down Italy all at once if need be.

HMS Invincible enters service

March 1, SMS Oldenburg is laid down at Schichau Danzig

March 8, At the Russian Duma it is reveled that that army is incapable of going to war over Bosnia. Word of this quickly gets to other European capitals of Russia’s situation.

March 12, British Navy bill accepted after "Navy Scare"

March 21 – 31, Russia and Serbia back down when Germany gives an ultimatum over the Bosnian annexation crises.

March 22, In the UK start of Imperial Defense Conferences; these conferences will last till August

March 24, Collapse of Bülow Liberal - Conservative Bloc over the issue of tax reform. In Canada the conservative party, currently in opposition, calls for the establishment of a Canadian Navy to support imperial defense.

May, At what is to be the first of an annual meeting Conrad, Moltke and elements of their staffs meet to discuss joint military planning. Moltke states that Europe is becoming more dangerous and the two nations need to stand side by side to face the future crisis. Conrad is more pessimistic and sees a day when the Monarchy will face enemies from the Alps, Balkans and East all at once.

At the meeting Moltke is also able to achieve major internal victory and gets the head of the Military Cabinet replaced with a officer sympathetic to his view point. All most at once Wilhelm is getting a very different point of view on military maters.

HMS St. Vincent, Superb and Temeraire enters service

June 4th, Canadian parliament in a unanimous vote agrees to a non-binding statement that Canada should build a navy of its own. This navy is to consist of 8 new built cruisers of the Monmouth Class armored cruisers, except they are to have turbines and be oil fired and 20 torpedo boat destroyers. $25 million is to be allocated to this effort with the cruisers built in the UK and destroyers locally. The cruisers are intended for coastal defense and the liberal’s politicians state that Canada has no need for either battleships or large cruisers.

June 10th, Bernhard von Bülow tenders his resignation to Wilhelm as he will be unable to get the current budget through the Reichstag. Wilhelm asks Bülow to stay on to get some budget past while a replacement is sought. A number of names are considered such as Theobald von Bethmann Hollweg Secretary for the Interior and Alfred von Tirpitz Secretary of State of the Imperial Naval Office. In time an unexpected candidate is settled on. Generaloberst Colmar Freiherr von der Goltz. A number in the army had been considering Goltz since the Daily Telegraph Affair of last autumn but a combination of his perceived liberal leanings and demand for the power to declare war on his own if the Kaiser refused caused him to be dropped at the time; however, with the östlich camp of the army in ascendance some of Goltz other qualities now come back into play. In 1899 he had championed the idea of the entire common frontier with France being lined with one continuous fortified system; from the Saar to the Swiss Border. Much of his time since being pushed out of Berlin because of his fortification and army reform ideas and had been spent as commander of the 1st Army Corps in East Prussia were he became a led figure in the östlich school. Goltz favored the östlich faction because of his belief that the next war would be a long war and the östlich faction believed this was possible if not a certainty.

Goltz agrees to drop his demand for the ability to declare war without the emperor but in exchange he wants something else instead; the office of Minister of War in addition to the Chancellors office. It is agreed to as long as no attempt to meddle in the overall makeup of the army, IE no attempt to hugely expand the army, another idea that Goltz was known to be very found of. Goltz also wants to take office at once.

June 15th, Einem steps down as War Minister and Colmar Freiherr von der Goltz is announced as the new Imperial Chancellor, Minister President of Prussia and Defense Minister of Prussia. Goltz quickly works to try to build a working coalition in the Reichstag but finds the parties are divided over the issue of tax reform. The tax reform bill is an estate tax targeting the well to do and the conservative parties are strongly against the measure not so much because of the taxes but to bring down Bülow.

June 28, Since taking office Goltz has been in almost constant talks with the Reichstag attempting to come up with a measure that will please the various factions. Now that Bülow is gone the conseratives are less opposed to a tax measure but many fear what some describe as Goltz ‘liberal’ views. To gain the conseratives support a spending measure is tied to the tax reform; this is to address some of the armies needs, this consists mainly of money for machineguns, the one section per brigade now rather than next year, and to fund some technical units that Einem had opposed. To gain the support of the Navy League additional small cruisers are provided for, three per year and not two as current. No change in total number of small cruisers just the specified number will be built to quicker. The Social Democrats of course support any measure that taxes the rich. Other factions quickly fall in line.

July 8, HMS Colossus laid down at Scotts

July 30, HMS Hercules laid down at Palmers

August,
The Imperial Defence conference concludes with two recommendations of special note; the establishment of two dominion navies one Australian and the other Canadian. The Australian fleet will consist of a battle Cruiser, three Light Cruisers, Six Destroyers and three Submarines, to be paid for and controlled by Australia. The Battle Cruiser and several of the light cruisers will be built in the United Kingdom but a yard is to be established in Australia to build up to small cruisers.

The Canadian Fleet is to consist of two armored cruisers, three light cruisers and four destroyers, to be paid for and controlled by Canada. The armored cruisers are current Royal Navy ships that will be transferred to Canadian service and some of the light cruiser will be built in the United Kingdom but a yard is to be established in Canada able to build up to small cruisers.

August 28, SMS Moltke Laid down Blohm & Voss, Hamburg

September, Following a parliamentary inquiry commission on the Army that showed the armies mobilization system had a number of problems, Italy increases the pay of officers and votes for more funding for the army in general. General Paolo Spingardi the War Minister and Chief of Staff Alberto Pollio embark on a modernization program.

Fall, Goltz and Moltke agree to having a survey of the Franco-German frontier done quietly. This survey is to look for the best locations to establish additional defenses along the border.

October 1st, SMS Blücher enters service

October 28th, HMS Indefatigable laid down at Devonport Dockyard

November 8th, Canadian parliament approves the recommendation of the Imperial Defense Conference and Quebec is specified as the location for the construction of the new yard.

November 20th, HMS Orion Laid down at Portsmouth Dockyard

December, British General Wilson visits Foch and listens to lectures followed by private talks; invites Foch to London; Wilson tours Franco-German border for 10 days by train and bicycle and concludes Germans would invade France through Belgium.

SMS Kaiser is laid down at Kiel Navy Yard.

[miketr]

A random change occurs with respect to Kuwait but I thought it would be interesting to explore.

1910

“The lamps are going out all over Europe: we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime." – Sir Edward Grey on the eve of the Great War

Estimation of improvements to Russian reserve and mobilization shows a marked increase in threat from the Russians.

Italy finishes proto-type of Deport 75mm advanced field artillery and orders it into production; however, production problems prevent the weapon from entering service till after 1914.

January General Wilson goes back to France and revisits Foch in Paris for further talks; Foch visits Wilson and General Staff in London later in the year. (Wilson asks Foch what the smallest British military force that would be of value to France if Germany attacked, prompting the reply of "one British soldier and we will see that he is killed”). Later this year General Wilson will become director of military operations.

January 15, British general elections
Conservative and Liberal Unionist 272
Liberal 274
Labour 40
Irish Parliamentary 71
All-for-Ireland 8
Ind. Nationalist 3
Independent Conservative 1
Independent Liberal 1


The election results are in effect a draw with Asquith formed a minority government of his Liberals and the Irish Nationalist. Asquith gets King Edward VII to agree to the mass creation of liberal peers to break the deadlock in the House of Lords and end the constitutional crises.

January 26, SMS Friedrich der Groβe is laid down at Vulcan, Hamburg

February, HMS Vanguard enters service

February 14, Churchill becomes Home Secretary

March, Serbia still seething from the Bosnian annexation crises announces a massive military expansion program. Soon there are matching programs across the Balkans as Bulgaria, Greece, Montenegro and Rumania all have expansion programs underway.

March 10th, Some members of the Conservative Party in Canada call for an expanded naval program but the program is without wide spread support.

April, Chancellor von der Goltz opens talks with the Ottoman Empire for an expanded military mission. At the same time Chancellor von der Goltz speaks to the German Bank consortium that is backing the Berlin to Baghdad railway about speeding up the project and possibly expanding it.

HMS Collingwood enters service

April 1st, HMS Monarch laid down at Armstrong

April 5th, HMS Conqueror laid down at Beardmore

April 13th, HMS Thunderer laid down at Thames Iron Works

May, Fueled by worries over the Balkan Powers military programs the Ottoman Empire aggress to the expanded army training mission. At the same time Goltz talks to Tirpitz about the possibility of attempting to leverage the British out of their naval training mission in the Ottoman Empire, Tirpitz is interested and agrees to look into the matter in greater detail.

May 2nd, HMS Princes Royal Laid down at Vickers.

May 3rd, SMS Nassau and SMS Westfalen enter service.

May 6, Edward VII dies suddenly and succeeded by George V. George V despite great reluctance agrees to honor his fathers pledge and to pack the House of Lords with Liberal peers if need be.

May 7 – June 10, One of the key issues that now faces the German Government and army is the need to pass a new Quinquennat or five year army spending plan. While Goltz greatly wants to put in place a true mass army he is still new in office and limited by his agreement of last year. At the same time the results of the survey of the western border is available it will be several years and very expensive to fortify. Also Moltke has a long list of wants for the army, in particular a more limited expansion of the army compared to what Goltz has in mind. In addition Goltz would like to get funding for at least a study of what is needed to fight a multiyear and multifront general war.

The parties of the left have a simple demand, they will vote for Goltz army bill if he will reform Prussia’s voting system; currently a three class system that weights votes based upon wealth and land ownership dating from 1850. The parties of the right are not just against the idea of suffrage reform in Prussia they are completely opposed to it. While both groups are powerful, the swing vote lies with the Center Parties, in particular the Catholic Center Party. The Center Party is in effect a Bavarian or South German party and has no interest in suffrage reform in Prussia which would have to get through the Prussian Parliament which is unlikely. In the end the Center Party agrees to back the Goltz fortification plan because it is designed to cover southern Germany.

The tally is close but not enough votes are available. The conservative parties are brought in line by Goltz promise as Minster President of Prussia to allow the vote reform bill to die. The final votes needed to push the Army spending bill forward comes from an unforeseen source. These votes come from those known as the Alsatianen Regionalist of Elsass-Lothringen and eight other votes held by representatives of other parties from the area; while the area has representation in the Reichstag it is ruled as Reichsland or Imperial Territory with no regional parliament and a governor appointed. Goltz will introduce a measure to reform the administration of Elsass-Lothringen.

A new problem appears once the full estimates for the fort program are in place; Finance Minister Adolf Wermuth will not back the Army Bill. Despite the Estate Tax of last year a great deal of debt has been run up, mostly from the Naval Laws but the Army Law would only make matters worse. This threatens the support of the Center Party and others. Goltz even though he is not answerable to the Reichstag but the Kaiser alone needs the Reichstag and part of his ability to function with it is perceived strength. A defeat of the army bill would weaken Goltz’s power so instead of having the entire bill defeated he instead drops the army expansion program and pushes on with the fortification bill and funding for long war study.

June 17th, SMS Konig Albert is laid down at Schichau, Danzig

June 20th, HMS New Zealand laid down at Govan shipbuilding

June 26th, HMAS Australia laid down at John Brown and Company

July, With Goltz’s backing a plan is considered to build a rail line into Syria but the project as designed would require an increase in the Ottoman Empires tariff rate and the rates are set by a foreign controlled border of governors. The UK veto’s the tariff increase and in a speech to Parliament on the matter Sir Edward Grey states that the UK couldn’t allow a measure of dubious value to British Trade to go forward.

Stymied for the moment Goltz suggests that rail road consortium look for other ways to fund the Syrian line and for other ways to speed up the Berlin to Baghdad railway.

September 10th, The annual meeting of Standing Committee on Wartime Supplies, under the control of the Imperial Statistical Office, meets. The committee has been meeting for several years now but its recommendations have been largely ignored. This will be the first meeting of the committee since funding for a long war study was allocated by the Reichstag and the meeting attracts a great deal of internal attention. Theobald von Bethmann Hollweg as Imperial State Secretary for the Interior is the nominal president of the Committee but Goltz as Prussian War Minister is at the meeting. Also in attendance is Admiral Tirpitz who senses a chance for the Imperial Naval Office to achieve tighter controls over industry and control costs, General Moltke Chief of the General Staff and various other officials from various civilian and military agencies of the Reich.

Tirpitz presents a report dating from 1905-06 of industry in the Ruhr showing that they were critically dependant on imports. In particular nickel, manganese, aluminum, copper, wool, flax, rubber, cotton, jute, saltpeter and oil. Industry in1905 had on average a 3 month supply; with 20% having a 6 month supply and 2% had enough to last over a year. Moltke presented a report on the state of the army’s small arms and artillery reserves; including his continued requests to expanded the artillery reserve to 1,200 shells per gun and increase monthly production of shells.

After several days of meetings and talks it is decided that new studies and surveys of the state of industry will be undertaken over the winter and the committee will meet again to consider recommendations. Subordinates will continue to meet in the interim to guide the committee’s activities.

September 21st, SMS Rheinland and SMS Posen enter service.

Balkan Railway consortium announces that the Baghdad to Basra section will be started in Basra and work its way north. The Hamburg Amerika Steamship Line (HAPAG) which has been making port calls in the Persian Gulf since 1906 will setup regular service to Basra, at first to support the railway construction effort. HAPAG is also given permission to survey for the possible construction of another port within the vilayet of Basra, a location closer to the coast. The British government slightly alarmed at this new effort in southern Mesopotamia hints to the Ottoman Government that a British firm would be better suited to setup and run a new port in the area, perhaps in Kuwait with a connecting railway; Kuwait while is technically part of the vilayet of Basra it is largely autonomous under British Protection. The Ottoman Government annoyed by the veto of the Syrian Railway funding tariff rejects the British suggestion. The British Government decides to observe the situation for the moment.

October,
Fall, Russia reforms mobilization system not only is it faster but sees the troops concentrated well away from the frontier. Moltke believes that the new system is still error prone and will be subject to all types of problems.

November, SMS Kaiserin is laid down at Howaldtswerke, Kiel

Late November, The British Foreign office receives reports from Persia and Kuwait that Germans and Ottomans doing survey work have been spotted at Al Faw (near Persia) and Umm Qasr (near Kuwait). Sir Edward Grey is considering what he believes is a measured response to the situation when an unexpected complication occurs. Along with the report from Kuwait came a request that the United Kingdom make the Sheikdom a British Protectorate; a fairly common request that goes back into the 19th century. At various cabinet meetings the situation in the gulf is discussed as the blatant attempts by Germany to gain influence there are worrying and threatening to the UK’s position in the gulf and Persia. A number are in favor of making Kuwait a formal UK protectorate to help secure the UK’s position in the region and the admiralty pressures the government to buy into the Anglo-Persian oil company to secure access to oil even though the company is still building its infrastructure and not producing in any major amount.

Lewis Harcourt has just become Secretary of State for the Colonies and he is looking to make his mark and wants to get a head of what he views as inevitable. During a question and answer session of Parliament where Harcourt is speaking on the situation of the colonies and what he sees as necessary changes an MP who is a friend of Harcourt asks him about the reports from the Persian Gulf and the Kuwaiti request. Harcourt states he believes it would be both Britain’s interest and Kuwait’s to honor the request but it just his opinion and not the governments. More questions on the topic follows from other members of parliament; the government whip quickly moves to squash the secession but the damage has been done and soon the wires and papers have the details.

Asquith, Grey and most other members of government and for that matter parliament were not at the question and answer session as no special questions were on the list, the stated topic was the colonies, interest was on the up coming elections and the issue of reforming the House of Lords. Asquith asks Harcourt to the effect of what the hell he was thinking and only doesn’t ask for Harcourt resignation because of this would make clear that the government was divided on the eve an election might do. Soon maters take on a life of there own as the next day several papers run stories that the Germans are going to build a naval base in the Persian Gulf and or that Kuwait is to made a protectorate. Also over those next several days Asquith’s government attempts to clarify the situation but the Conseratives jump on the issue as a way to attempt to deflect the nature of the upcoming election; moving it from domestic issue of reforming the house of lords to defense and foreign policy.

The Ottoman Government demands a formal and public statement from the British that Kuwait is an internal matter of the Ottoman Empire. Several papers in Italy begin talking that the time has come for the Ottoman Empire to be partitioned and that Italy should seek its part in Ottoman North Africa; a place which the Italian News Papers describe as both rich and scarcely defended by corrupt and despotic Turks whom the natives hate. The British government attempts at first to in effect ignore the issue to attempt to keep the issue focused on reforming the house of lords only saying Harcourt’s were his personal thoughts and not those of the government; then not saying what the governments thoughts on the matter are.

Grey asks the German government to defuse the situation by dropping the port project on the gulf; Goltz replies that the port project is one of private industry and not the German Governments. Also Goltz states if British want to defuse the situation that the Britain should respond to the Ottoman request for a statement on Kuwait.

Dec 2nd, Canadian Prime Minister Wilfrid Laurier faces a revolt in his own party as some liberals want a statement that the New Navy will be independent of the United Kingdom. This idea outrages conservatives and the call for an even larger navy is renewed by the right. Laurier is able to get the $25 million measure passed but the effort fractures his own Liberal party. HMS Suffolk and HMS Lancaster, Monmouth class armored cruisers, were transferred to Canadian service earlier that fall.

Early December, With pressure mounting from the Conservative and Liberal Unionist attempt to paint the Liberal – Irish Nationalist government as weak on defense and foreign policy Asquith attempts to steel the oppositions Thunder and has Sir Grey inform the Ottomans that they can either accept an independent Kuwait or have it forced on them; in particular that Persia, the UK and Russia’s creature will bring up the border location up. The Ottoman government consults with Berlin and while Goltz would like to force the British back down the odds are not favorable. Goltz knows from his time in the Ottoman Empire the logistics of trying to campaign towards the Persian Gulf would be poor and any conference is sure to go against the Ottomans. Instead Goltz suggests that Ottoman Government accept the defeat but attempt to get something in return as Asquith needs the issue to go away before elections.

Several talks are held between the British Foreign office and the Ottoman Government over the next few days. All the Ottomans are able to extract from the British are loan guaranties and faced with an unwinnable situation take what they can get and accept the loans. The Committee of Union and Progress and the old guard in Control of the Government in the Ottoman Empire makes clear that solution to the crises has been forced on the nation; outrage across the Empire follows.

Papers in Germany bemoan the results of the Persian Gulf crises and the inability of Germany to force a favoriable solution.

December 10, In Australia the Naval Defense Act has passed. Admiral Sir Reginald Henderson representing Admiral of the Fleet, Lord Fisher, arrived to advise on Naval Defense. Torpedo Boat Destroyers Yarra and Parramatta arrive in Melbourne.

December 19th, Second General Election of the year held in the UK.

Conservative and Liberal Unionist 277
Liberal 264
Labour 44
Irish Parliamentary 74
All-for-Ireland 8
Ind. Nationalist 2
Independent Conservative 1


Asquith’s government is just able to hold off the Conservatives and retain office. With the Liberal-Irish Nationalist government kept in office and King George V agreeing at last to pack the House of Lords with Liberal peers if need by the Parliament Act moves forward which will strip the upper house of its ability to veto legislation instead they will only be able to delay it.

[Alratan]

It's worth remembering that if the Germans go East first, then the Entente is in a much stronger position, as the British government is still likely to enter the war to preserve the balance of power. This will mean that the French retain their main industrial areas, so the massive strategic imperative to go on the offence their loss caused won't be present, but much more importantly, it means that the Germans won't capture the Antwerpen nitrates, and so they will run out before the ammonium nitrate production plants using Haber process comes on-line in sufficient volume to meet the Central Power's requirements.

This means that it is very likely that the Central Powers will be unable to sustain military action after about 6-9 months until the end of the year, and they'll know it. If they try to fight on, the enormous demands for explosives that trench warfare makes will mean they run out and their lines will crumble under Entente assault, leading to a quick end to the war.

[miketr]

Originally Posted by Alratan

It's worth remembering that if the Germans go East first, then the Entente is in a much stronger position, as the British government is still likely to enter the war to preserve the balance of power. This will mean that the French retain their main industrial areas, so the massive strategic imperative to go on the offence their loss caused won't be present, but much more importantly, it means that the Germans won't capture the Antwerpen nitrates, and so they will run out before the ammonium nitrate production plants using Haber process comes on-line in sufficient volume to meet the Central Power's requirements.

So the French won't be attacking and the Germans are to still run out of ammo. You do note that there is somewhat of a contradiction here?

From what I have read on what was captured in Belgium it wasn't a huge haul for a number of reasons and was delayed in being got at. If you have other info I would be most interested in reading it.

You do hit on a key point in terms of industrial readiness, see below.

Originally Posted by Alratan

This means that it is very likely that the Central Powers will be unable to sustain military action after about 6-9 months until the end of the year, and they'll know it. If they try to fight on, the enormous demands for explosives that trench warfare makes will mean they run out and their lines will crumble under Entente assault, leading to a quick end to the war.

If the Germans go east first they are accepting at least a one year campaign and they need to prepare for that.

Thanks for reading and replying!

Michael

[Kalan]

Originally Posted by Alratan

It's worth remembering that if the Germans go East first, then the Entente is in a much stronger position, as the British government is still likely to enter the war to preserve the balance of power.

I don't think so IOTL after the blatant violation of the belgian neutrality, two ministers resigned over the declaration of war. So it is unlikely that war would be declared without such a good reason.

[tallwingedgoat]

The Russians would be overrun before fully mobilized. Without the insane attitudes of a later age, Germany would use Polish and Baltic nationalism against Russia. In the West, with or without Britain, the French bleed white trying to attack the German trenches manned by a much smaller force that OTL.

[miketr]

Thunder in the Balkans and North Africa...

1911
“The whole of the Balkans is not worth the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier.” -- Otto von Bismarck

With the New Year the Italian press increases calls for war to seize Tripolitania and Cyrenaica from the Ottoman Empire. The Italian Military is ordered to begin preparations for the occupation of Tripolitania and Cyrenaica while the Government is to consult with other European powers. Germany is alone among the powers that is actually overtly against the Italian adventure. A warning is quietly dropped to Istanbul that more trouble is in the wind.

January – HMS Neptune Enters Service, HMS King George V is laiddown at Portsmouth Dock Yard and HMS Centurion at Devonport Dock Yard

January 18 – An airplane lands on the deck of the USS Pennsylvania, ACR-4, stationed in San Francisco harbor, marking the first time an aircraft landed on a ship.

February – HMS Audacious is laiddown at Cammell Laird and HMS Ajax at Scotts

February 4 – SMS Seydlitz laid down at Blohm und Voss

February 9 - Churchill in a speech declares that the British fleet is necessity and a German fleet a luxury

February 20 – SMS Von Der Tann enters service

February 28 – Italy declares war on the Ottoman Empire and invades Libya.

March - British plans for B.E.F. mobilization in event of British intervention in general contintental war ready (schedule of mobilization). HMS Indefatigable enters service. HMS Queen Mary is laid down at Palmers.

Italy bombards a number of ports in North Africa and soon 20,000 Italian troops are operating in Libya but they are in the ports unable to project power into the hinterlands as tens of thousands of Irregular Arab Calvary and the Ottoman Garrison attack any patrols that go outside of the coastal cities.

April – Heads of STAVKA and Conseil supérieur de la Guerre during there annual meeting discus the new military stance of the Germans. A number in the French army are worried about the German fortification plan at the same time the élan school of thought under the leadership of Général de Division Ferdinand Foch is in ascendancy with its belief that will alone can conquer. It is decided to consider a new heavy artillery design and purchase a small number for evaluation purposes, the 105mm field gun Model 1911 or L 11 S is the result and is based on the Russian 107mm Field Gun that was designed in France. The L 11 S fires a shell well over double the size of the famous 75mm but the weapon is also double the size so its not very popular with attack school which favors mobility above all else. The Russians are worried that they will face an offensive and request more loans for railroad construction to sped up there mobilization.

Italy declares sovereignty over Libya but their actual control is limited to the coastal areas. The continued fighting is portrayed in Italy as a revolt by bandits. Quietly Italy sends reinforcements, soon numbering in the tens of thousands. After an Italian force seizes Tobruk and it starts to expand into the country side the Italian advance is checked by a young Ottoman Officer, Mustafa Kemal. At the Battle of Nadura Hill several hundred Italians are killed or wounded and following there retreat, a number of machine guns are captured.

With Russian aid the secret Balkan League is formed between Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia and Montenegro. Not a direct alliance between all parties but a series of agreements that generally link the four powers. Soon the four members begin making military preparations. Goltz worried that the situation is spiraling out of control looks for some type of solution to the problem. In the end all he can do is send more aid to the Ottoman Empire; Germany sends a shipment of arms and munitions to the Ottoman Empire along with even more advisors. The Ottoman Empire makes preparations to fight a war in the Balkans in addition to the Italians.

May 21 - France occupy Fez in Morocco signaling too many that France intends to take over all of Morocco. Goltz distracted by the on going crises with the Ottoman Empire and continued disquieting rumors being received out of the Balkan nations has the German minister in Paris contact the French government to work out some type of agreement. German colonial league and other nationalist groups in Germany demand compensation for Germany.

Tension is mounting in the Balkans as both sides make there preparations for war more obvious.

June - Joseph Caillaux the French Premier begins negotiations with the Germans, Caillaux believes that peace can be maintained by taking a conciliatory stance towards Germany. Also Caillaux is worried over the spreading crises with the Ottoman Empire. Aehrenthal the Austro-Hungarian Foreign Minister is also worried over events, rebuffed when he approaches Russia he soon contacts Paris and finds a sympathetic ear.

July - Asquith appoints Chruchill to Cabinet's Committee of Imperial Defense (formed 1904). HMS Colossus enters service.


Negotiations are advancing between France and Germany over the Moroccan “issue”. Germany is seeking compensation elsewhere in exchange for accepting an outright French Protectorate over Morocco.

Worries over the continuing tension in the Balkans and under general pressure from a number of the powers Italy and the Ottoman Empire sign a treaty ending their war. The Treaty of Lausanne cedes Tripoli and Cyrenaica to Italy and a commission is to be established to fix a small payment to the Ottoman Government based on Imperial expenditures on the two provinces. France agreed to restructure some of the Ottoman debt to help entice the Ottoman Empire into making an agreement.

The various Balkan powers pressure Greece to declare war now while the Ottoman Empire is still distracted. Greece is awaiting additions to its navy to be ready and refuses. So the various powers continue their own preparations for war.

German military advisors have been helping with reforms in the Ottoman Army in particular the Ottomans efforts to establish a new 43 division peace time army. The Ottoman Army is in the middle of converting their divisions from a squad division format of 16 battalions with brigades to a triangle structure of 9 line infantry battalions within 3 regiments; 3 battalions per regiment and a light infantry battalion at the division level. At the same time it is estimated that it will take up to 50 days after general mobilization is declared for all reserves to join the colors and be deployed to the fighting front. While the Ottomans are students of the German schools of tactical and strategic thought they have adopted a defensive stance in the Balkans. There forces are organized into two armies with 24 regular divisions between them the 1st army is to defend Thrace while 2nd army defends Macedonia. The plan is to break any attack on the Ottoman defenses and launch local counter attacks. A number of officers within the Ottoman Army and German military mission, in particular a staff officer by the name of Oberstleutnant Edward von Erichsohn points out that this allows the possibility of a defeat in detail and the plan cedes the initiative to the Balkan Powers.

The Bulgarian Army is the largest and most well regarded of the Balkan Powers. The Bulgarian army is organized into 3 armies of 3 divisions each. Each division is of the large type with numerous infantry battalions common in European armies; however, the Bulgarian army employs divisions of three brigades with two regiments per brigade and four battalions per regiment. Giving Bulgarian divisions a strength of 24 battalions per Division with nearly 30,000 men per. Meaning that each Bulgarian infantry division has the strength of one Ottoman Corps of 3 divisions. At full mobilization Bulgaria can put another two divisions into the field for 11 divisions and nearly half a million men under arms a staggering 80% of their military age population.

Serbia has an army at full mobilization of 15 divisions using a square division setup of 2 brigades and 2 regiments per brigade. The 15 divisions are organized into 3 age cohorts, the first wave is the active army and its reserves those aged 21 to 31, the second wave is aged 32 to 38 and the third is 39 to 45. Plus cavalry division. Montenegro Serbia’s close ally fields an army of 4 divisions with 12 battalions each at mobilization a total of 45,000 men.

The Greek army like Ottoman army is in the middle of a conversion from a square division format to a triangle division format; this conversion is aided by a French military mission. This update of the army is not complete and has left a number of orphaned regiments without divisions. The Greek High command intends to form three mobilization only divisions out of reserves and orphaned regiments. These divisions plus the four peace time only divisions will give Greece a mobilization army of seven divisions. Greece’s most important military force is its navy as the Ottoman mobilization scheme calls for the use of ships to provide reinforcements and reserves to there Balkan armies across the Aegean.

All told the Balkan League is expected to field a force of 556 infantry battalions. The Ottoman 1st and 2nd armies are expected to field 658 Infantry Battalions. The vast majority of the Ottoman Force is reserves, as only 240 battalions are organized into the 24 active divisions. At the same time the Ottoman Army had a 20% short fall in personal small arms, artillery on order, a shortage of munitions of all types and a number of training problems. At the same time detachments from 1st and 2nd armies to deal with problems else where as far away as Yemen seriously disrupt the organization of Ottoman Army. In addition to the problems of army reform with new Corps level formations and divisions had to be created from scratch all while dealing with the Italian war.

With all these factors considered the German Military mission suggests that the Ottomans discard War Plan 5, the war plan for fighting all the Balkan Powers at once, for a new plan. Instead the Ottomans will attack using interior lines and defeat their enemies in turn. Bulgaria with its 288 battalions in its mobilized army is the key to the Balkan League, destroy the Bulgarian army and the rest are doomed. The expanded military mission from Germany and the various weapons shipments have gone a long way to correct the worst material and administrative defects of the Ottoman Army. Still the Ottoman transport system will not allow a rapid mobilization. 26 reserve divisions and the half manpower of the active divisions need to transported and that will take years improve the infrastructure. A surprise attack is considered and discarded as being too politically risky and the economic and political costs of general mobilization are nearly as bad. So instead manpower from else where will be transferred in slowly and conscripts due to be released to reserves will be kept under arms. Thus the Ottoman army can increase its readiness without massive economic or political consequences and if war comes then 21 of the 24 active divisions will launch an offensive into Bulgaria at the outset of the war. With the Italian war over hopeful tensions in the Balkans will lessen and the plan will not be needed and the troops can go home.

July 10 King George V bestowed the title of 'Royal Australian Navy' upon the Australian unit and ‘Royal Canadian Navy’ upon the Canadian unit.

July 20, While some members of the Imperial Defense Committee are worried over the issue of a European War increasing evidence that Germany’s military stance is to the east is making it difficult to reach a consensus. This combined with talks between Berlin and Paris over Morocco cause the entire issue of war intervention in a European war to be moved to the back burner all together.

August – HMS Hercules enters service

August 1, Since 1910 the Ottoman Navy Foundation has been doing a national donation drive to raise money to buy modern warships for the Navy. Till the Kuwait Crises Vickers and Armstrong had been the front runners to build a new battleship, but the aftermath ruined any chance of major units being ordered from British yards. Instead the new Dreadnought Battleships will be ordered from German Yards. Loans from the Bank of England and Paris have been used to refinance some of the Ottoman Empires debt improving its cash situation and the subscription will allow two ships to be ordered at once. Reshadiye is to be built by Vulcan Stettin and Fatih by Blohm und Voss, both ships are to be built to a modification of the soon to be laid down König class, smaller and reduced range.

August 4 - Morocco Agreement signed between France, Germany and Spain. The Sultanate of Morocco is partitioned between France and Spain with German economic interests respected. Spanish Equatorial Guinea is bought by the German Empire. A large swath of French Equatorial Africa is annexed to the German Kamerun’s and Germany cedes the part of the Kameruns that is east of the Logone River. The most noteworthy addition of the former French territory besides tens of thousands of miles of sleeping sickness infested swamp was the small town of Libreville when the German border was moved to the Equator. See map, http://unimaps.com/cameroon1914/mainmap.gif as historic accept add a swath north a line running a little south of Libreville running along the equator to the Likouala River in the east.
This victory for German diplomacy does much to restore Goltz weakening situation. Goltz continued backing of the Ottoman Empire and back to back defeats for the Ottoman Empire had caused many to question the wisdom of the pro-Ottoman Policy. A number had quietly suggested that Germany should instead join the inevitable partition of the Ottoman Empire, before it was too late and Germany was denied its rightful spoils. All such talk is put on the back burner following the successful conclusion of the talks with France. Within France a number deride what is called alternately Caillaux’s Treason or Cowardice.

August 25 - Elsaß-Lothringen reform bill is passed by special session of Reichstag and confirmed by Bundesrat. The former Reichsland becomes the Großherzogtümer Elsaß-Lothringen with the Austrian Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand and heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary as it Grand Duke. A constitution is granted to the new territory and parliament established. The change was done for a number of reasons including the historic ties of the Hapsburgs to the area and the desire of Wilhelm II for the children of Franz Ferdinand to have a dignity after there father. When Franz Ferdinand married Countess Sophie Chotek von Chotkova und Wognin the marriage was declared by Emperor Franz Joseph to be morganatic marriage because of the countess low social station despite her noble title being one of the oldest within the Dual Monarchy the title wasn’t a ruling title. As a result of Franz Joseph’s declaration the countess and her children would not inherit any of Franz Ferdinand’s titles, including the throne of Austria-Hungary after Franz Ferdinand.

Caillaux’s position in France already tenuous over the resolution to the Moroccan Issue is made much worse by the announcement. Soon Caillaux is under attack from multiple factions and is forced to step down.

September 1, Averof a 10,000 ton Armored Cruiser enters service with the Greek Navy. At once Bulgaria, Montenegro and Serbia start agitating for war. Over September a cycle of diplomatic threats starts that ends with the Balkan League and the Ottoman Empire declaring General Mobilization. Austria and France make a joint statement for a conference to resolve the matter but it is rejected by all parties.

September 6 - Stolypin assasinated in the Kiev Opera House in front of the Tsar

September 25 – Montenegro Declares War on Ottoman Empire.


October – SMS König laid down at Wilhelmshaven Navy Yard and SMS Grosser Kurfürst liad down at Vulcan, Hamburg. SMS Ostfriesland and SMS Thüringen enter service.

October 13 – Bulgaria, Greece and Serbia issue an ultimatum to the Ottoman Empire that is quickly rejected.

October 17 - Bulgaria, Greece and Serbia declare war on the Ottoman Empire.

Bulgaria is mobilizing its forces in three armies, 1st at Sofia, 2nd at Philippopolis and 3rd at Rustchuk.

Greece has its primary force the Army of Thessaly assembling in North Eastern Greece

Serbia has its forces organized into three armies, 1st at Vranje, 2nd at Kyustendil in Bulgaria and 3rd in two parts one at Toplica and the other at Medveđa.

The Ottomans have 2 Armies in the Balkans 1st in Thrace to Macedonia with I to IV Corps, to launch the offensive into Bulgaria. Primary objective is Philippopolis to attempt to destroy the 2nd Bulgarian army. From the 2nd Army V and VI Corps have been attached to 1st army and will continue the offensive towards Sofia. 2nd Army has VII Corps with Divisions and 3 Independent divisions 22nd to 24th along with various reserve units to defend Western Macedonia and Albania.

October 21 – Battle of Thrace, between Philippopolis and Adrianople along the main rail line 1st Ottoman Army and elements of 2nd Bulgarian Army clash, raw weight of numbers favors Ottomans and Bulgarians fall back up the railroad.

Following a skirmish near the Gulf of Actium the Greek Army of Epirus, not even 10,000 men and the largest unit is the Independent 15 Infantry Regiment, takes the city of Preveza. The Greek troops dig in and await events elsewhere.

October 22 – Battle of Saranaporo, Greek Army of Thessaly attacks the Ottoman VIII Provisional Corps, reservists, entrenched in pre-war defenses. Attempted Encirclement / Outflank of Ottoman army fails. A headlong attack into Ottoman Defense also is repulsed. Defeat causes widespread moral problems in Greek forces as it is feared by many that the war will be a repeat of 1897 Greco Ottoman War.

October 23 – Serbian Army advances into Macedonia and moves towards Skopje in the south. Ottoman VII Corps fights a delaying action. Montenegro and Serbia advance into the Sanjak of Novi Pazar.

October 24 – Battle of Phippopolis - 1st Ottoman Army meets 2nd Bulgarian army. Ottomans attack Bulgarian troops dug in to the east of Phippopolis. The result of the day long battle is a bloody draw as the Ottomans while able to drive the Bulgarians back in places were not able to break the Bulgarian defense. Word is received that the 3rd Bulgarian Army is advancing into Eastern Thrace and defeated reservists at the village of Kirk Kilisse.

October 25 – The Greek army has slowly moved around the flanks of the Ottoman position near Saranaporo. This has made the position untenable and the Ottomans retreat under cover of darkness. With the failure to defeat the Bulgarians and reports of the advance of the Bulgarians into Thrace it is clear that the Ottoman attempt to defeat the Bulgarians before they were ready has failed. Indeed 1st Ottoman Army is at risk of being cut off from the Capital by the 3rd Bulgarian Army. Order is given for a speedy if orderly withdrawal back the way the Ottomans came. The Ottoman V and VI corps expected to support an attack on Sofia are released back to the 2nd Army and quickly move towards Skopje and the VI Corps moves due south into Macedonia. Bulgarian 1st Army which had been pined unable to move because of the Ottoman concentration is at last able to move to support the 2nd Bulgarian Army.

Churchill becomes First Lord of the Admiralty and invites Fisher to meet him

October 27 – Battle of Skopje, Serbian forces had arrived outside the city on 23rd but were focusing on attempting to cross the Vardar River to encircle the city. Appearance of V Ottoman Corps on east side of Vardar unhinges Serbs plans and they are forced to draw back. Fighting is generally light as the Serbs were attempting to use their numbers to over extend the defending VII Ottoman Corps and when additional Ottomans arrived the Serbs quickly fell back.

Battle of Lüleburgaz, once more Ottoman Reservists are defeated by advancing Bulgarian 3rd Army. City is quickly besieged by Bulgarian army. This cuts the railroad between Istanbul and Adrianople.

October 28 – 1st Ottoman Army has arrived at Adrianople. The situation for 1st Ottoman Army is desperate as the 3rd Bulgarian Army is along there lines of communication to Istanbul yet 2nd Bulgarian army has been very slow in following after them. The Bulgarians are awaiting the arrival of 1st Bulgarian army to launch there own offensive towards Adrianople. The siege of Lüleburgaz has to be lifted and so most of 1st army along with most of the corps sized city garrison heads towards the 3rd Bulgarian Army. A provisional cavalry division is made out of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd cavalry Brigades and it rapidly advances towards Kirk Kilisse to cut of the Bulgarians supply. Only a few regular battalions and the Adrianople Reserve Division will hold the walls.

October 30 – Ottoman 1st Provisional Division retakes Kirk Kilisse.

October 31 – 2nd Battle of Battle of Lüleburgaz, 1st Ottoman Army arrives on western Flank of Bulgarian 3rd Army. Word also arrives that Kirk Kilisse has fallen. The Bulgarians fearing they will be encircled quickly pulls back towards the North East. The Ottomans move to refit the foot tired 1st army which has been in almost constant motion since the war began.

Second Battle of Skopje, with most of the Serbian army available 14 Serbian Divisions and one Bulgarian Division attack the 6 regular divisions of the V and VII Ottoman corps and the Skopje reserve division. Massively out numbered the Ottomans are driven back and begin a retreat towards Prilep. Serbian army breaks up to advance after Ottoman Army and to advance into Albania.

Ottoman Forces are now split into three sections, 1st army in Thrace, 2nd army with several divisions in Macedonia and another part of 2nd army in Albania.

November 3 - Battle of Giannitsa, Greek Army of Thessaly using its superior numbers is able to out flank the Ottoman forces, who now have to pull back again. The last defense position before Salonika has been taken.

November 5 – Battle of Gevgelí, 7th Bulgarian Division which is advancing towards Salonika clashes with VI Ottoman Corps and Serez Reserve Division. The Bulgarians press the attack as the Bulgarian High Command has as of yet little to show for way in the way of territorial gain and wishes to beat the Greeks to Salonika. The result is a bruising defeat as repeated attacks on dug in Ottoman troops are repulsed.

November 7 - The Bulgarian 1st and 2nd armies arrive outside of Adrianople and invest the city at once. The Bulgarian 2nd army is left to besiege the city while the 1st army advances east towards Kirk Kilisse and to effect a linkup with the Bulgarian 3rd Army.

November 9 - In Thrace the Bulgarian 1st and 3rd armies have linked up and advance towards Istanbul. The 1st Ottoman army has received a number of reinforcements and falls back on the Chataldja Line 30 km west of Istanbul.

November 11 – Battle of Salonika, there are 7 Ottoman Divisions around Salonika from the Ottoman VI Corps and VIII Provisional Corps. At the same time they are faced by 7 Greek Divisions from the south and 1 Bulgarian Division from the North. VIII Corps plus two divisions from VI Corps digs in along the Vardar River and the remainder of VI Corps faces North. The Bulgarians and Greeks effectively refuse close cooperation as they are both attempting to get the same objective, Salonika. The Greeks setup their artillery, just over 40 batteries and are used to cover an assault crossing of the Vardar River. The Bulgarians are waiting for the Greeks to attack and then will attack themselves. The Bulgarians are hoping the Greeks will soak up and distract the Ottomans and allow there own attack to break through. The result is a messy three cornered brawl that bleeds all the combatants and nearly exhausts the Ottoman munitions supplies. The Ottomans hold the position if just. A signal is sent to Istanbul explaining the dire nature of the situation.

November 12 – Battle of Chataldja, the reinforced Ottoman 1st army defends the Chataldja Line against the 1st and 3rd Bulgarian armies. The result is a clear defeat of the Bulgarian attack vs. the dug in Ottoman troops.

November 13 – Battle of Elli, The Ottoman Navy attempts to force the Greek Navy out of the Aegean so reinforcements and supplies can be sent to Salonika and Western Thrace. The presence of the Greek Cruiser Averof proves decisive despite her somewhat flawed performance, even though the ship has been commissioned she is not had time to shake down to maximum efficiency. Averof’s superior speed and the ruthless drive of Rear Admiral Pavlos Kountouriotis allows him to dictate the pace of the battle and pummel the Ottoman pre-dreadnoughts battleships.

The German Naval Mission had warned the Ottoman Command that in there opinion the Navy was simply not ready to fight and was grossly deficient in most aspects. The warning has come home to roost and the Greek Navy now has effective control of the Aegean Sea and besides dashing any hope of resupply by sea of Ottoman Forces in Thrace and Macedonia now opens the Ottoman Islands of the Aegean to invasion.

November 14 – Battle of Prilep, Serbian 1st army defeats Ottoman V corps and several reserve units driving the Ottomans into Albania.

Austria-Hungary is greatly worried over the possibility of Serbia getting direct access to the Adriatic. At the same time the continued problems of the Ottoman Empire is making things difficult for Goltz in Germany as multiple groups are questioning the wisdom of backing the Ottoman Empire.

November 15 – With the duel defeats of Elli and Prilep the position of Ottoman forces near Salonika is very tenuous. While the Ottomans have repeatedly defeated the Greeks on the defensive their supply of munitions is very short. With no immediate hope of resupply or reinforcements and worried about the possibility of additional Bulgarian or Greek troops arriving the Ottoman troop will withdraw. The Ottoman Commander concludes a local 48 hour armistice with the Greeks. The Ottomans will hand over Salonika in exchange for the Greeks to take no action for the duration of the truce. As a sign of good faith on the Ottomans part the Greeks are allowed to establish two bridge heads on the east bank of the Vardar River.

The Ottomans heavily reinforce verse the Bulgarians to the north and then begin a withdrawal to the east. The Ottomans objective is to dig in along the Struma River west of Sevez to attempt to hold eastern Macedonia.

When the Bulgarians discover what has happened they are outraged at the Greek ‘betrayal’.

November 17 – With the situation grim in the Balkans the Ottomans accept an offer of peace conference to resolve the Balkan War. Bulgaria, Montenegro and Serbia agree to an armistice with the Ottoman Empire. Greece agrees to attend the peace talks but refuses to an armistice unless the Ottomans hand over Epirus area first, this is refused and no armistice is in effect between the two powers.

November 28 – Albanian Nationalists declare independence

November – SMS Markgraf laid down at Weser, Bremen.

Arthur James Balfour resigns as leader of Conservative Unionists following the back to back election defeats. The leading candidates to replace Balfour are Austen Chamberlain who is Balfour’s designated successor and Walter Long. It quickly becomes clear that Chamberlain and Long have roughly an equal following among sitting PM’s. A bruising battle within the coalition follows. This battle threatens to shatter the coalition and is only resolved when Chamberlain bows out in favor of Long to preserve the party.

December 19 - SMS Helgoland enters service

[machine3589]

Got some maps?

[miketr]

Originally Posted by machine3589

Got some maps?

Sorry not for the Balkan Wars

[Tom_B]

I was wondering when someone was going to bring that up and what your answer would be.

[miketr]

Originally Posted by Tom_B

I was wondering when someone was going to bring that up and what your answer would be.

What happens is the UK doesn't declare war on Germany till December 1914 after German surface raiders made a total pain of themselves. As soon as the war starts the Germans have the War Materials Board make massive orders for critical raw materials. They have 3 months to build up stock piles of critical raw materials / steal goods bound for France.

As to Antwerp I recall reading about the Germans siezing raw materials from Belgium but my memory is the Germans were hugely disappointed by the haul. I did a quick check of my books and was unable to find any details. I will look again tomorrow

[Nivek]

Originally Posted by miketr

August 25 - Elsaß-Lothringen reform bill is passed by special session of Reichstag and confirmed by Bundesrat. The former Reichsland becomes the Großherzogtümer Elsaß-Lothringen with the Austrian Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand and heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary as it Grand Duke. A constitution is granted to the new territory and parliament established. The change was done for a number of reasons including the historic ties of the Hapsburgs to the area and the desire of Wilhelm II for the children of Franz Ferdinand to have a dignity after there father. When Franz Ferdinand married Countess Sophie Chotek von Chotkova und Wognin the marriage was declared by Emperor Franz Joseph to be morganatic marriage because of the countess low social station despite her noble title being one of the oldest within the Dual Monarchy the title wasn’t a ruling title. As a result of Franz Joseph’s declaration the countess and her children would not inherit any of Franz Ferdinand’s titles, including the throne of Austria-Hungary after Franz Ferdinand.

Caillaux’s position in France already tenuous over the resolution to the Moroccan Issue is made much worse by the announcement. Soon Caillaux is under attack from multiple factions and is forced to step down.

That was extremly big butteflie effect(and a extremly interesting one), because for that, Elsaß-Lothringen now is State(remember, the second reich was a federation like early-USA) and the french have to answer about the capitulazion of a sovereing state rather than simple territory.

Originally Posted by miketr

What happens is the UK doesn't declare war on Germany till December 1914 after German surface raiders made a total pain of themselves. As soon as the war starts the Germans have the War Materials Board make massive orders for critical raw materials. They have 3 months to build up stock piles of critical raw materials / steal goods bound for France.

Hey. we again are gonna to have the strike against the british(Well for the sake of all the britainwak who all say Rule Britannia, Britannia uber alles) the british have their own personal problems like the Home Rule Crisis or a decent excuse of war(again i didn't know about if the 'little gallant belgium' humbug will happen), maybe the commerce raider will anger them but if possible... make possible a least a more bloddy Ireland(and maybe full independance after the war, for a bless for all the Irish in the world)

Again the TL Looks very good and interesting(the POD is extremly counterfactual and very pausable), keep there will be a very good tl

[miketr]

Nivek without saying to much in the way of details the British will have there own reasons for joining the war. As to Ireland keep an eye on British politics and party leaderships a big change is going ot occur

Thanks for reading

[Alratan]

Politically the British were committed to war. The Tories and half the Liberals were all for it, so if the Liberals decide not to enter the government will fall and the new one will declare.

Originally Posted by miketr

What happens is the UK doesn't declare war on Germany till December 1914 after German surface raiders made a total pain of themselves. As soon as the war starts the Germans have the War Materials Board make massive orders for critical raw materials. They have 3 months to build up stock piles of critical raw materials / steal goods bound for France.

You should realise this won't work. There aren't massive stockpiles of nitrates available for the Germans to buy. Also, if the French have any sense, they'll simply reflag their ships as British. Additionally, commerce raiding might sink ships, but won't gernate industrially meaningful amounts of loot.

Originally Posted by miketr

As to Antwerp I recall reading about the Germans siezing raw materials from Belgium but my memory is the Germans were hugely disappointed by the haul. I did a quick check of my books and was unable to find any details. I will look again tomorrow

At this point the Germans didn't realise how critical the nitrate supply was going to be, so didn't realise the importance of their capture until six months later when their own stocks ran out. I posted the details to MrP's world war thread, I'll try to dig it up.

[miketr]

Final Act of the Balkan Wars

1912
“Gott strafe England!” - Statement by German and Hapsburg soldiers in the trenches and post war became part of the poem, “Hassgesang gegen England” by Ernst Lissauer
"God heard the embattled nations sing and shout
'Gott strafe England!' and 'God save the King!'
God this, God that, and God the other thing —
'Good God!' said God, 'I've got my work cut out!'"
British reply by Sir John Collings Squire

Since the armistice was signed the various parties had been meeting in London attempting to bring a final end to the Balkan war. The result has been mutual recriminations between the members of the Balkan League. Montenegro and Serbia had achieved most of their objectives and at little cost. Greece had also achieved most of their objectives, the Aegean Islands in Ottoman hands were being taken one by one as there was no armistice in place between Greece and the Ottomans. At the same time the Ottomans continued to hold out in Albania. Also other than its victory on the sea Greece’s conquests had not come cheaply however. Bulgaria alone had not achieved its objectives or cheaply; much of eastern Thrace was overrun but the great city of Adrianople refused to surrender due to lack of siege artillery to force the issue and large Ottoman forces held out in western Thrace around the city of Sevez and various fortified cities in between the two. Bulgaria demanded of their allies that they be compensated for their sacrifices that permitted the others conquests. In particular the Bulgarians wanted Macedonia and access to the Aegean with the port of Salonika. Greece refused and kept strong forces facing the Bulgarians. The Bulgarian demands so alarmed their “allies” that Serbia and Greece conclude an alliance and open talks with Romania.

The Great Powers wanted an end to the war. In Particular Austria wanted the war resolved but was not willing to let Serbia grow much larger by seizing all or even part of Albania. Pointed threats were issued that Vienna would not stand for such an event to come to pass. The conscious was that Albania was to be setup as an independent state. Still no agreement was forth coming as the various members of the Balkan league could not agree on a division of the spoils.

Matters then came to a head once a coup d'état occurs within the Ottoman Empire. The so called "The Three Pashas", Ottoman minister of the interior, Mehmed Talat Pasha, the minister of war, Ismail Enver, and the minister of the Navy, Ahmed Djemal take control of the government.

Bulgaria which had been very frustrated with the peace talks decides to use window of opportunity that the Ottoman coup has created to seize their claims in the Balkans. The Bulgarian army moves into Macedonia.

The Bulgarians believe that the coup will distract the Ottomans and so the most of Bulgarian army is shifted west. Despite the Bulgarian objective of taking area nearer pre-war Greece the lay of railroads forces an offensive vs. Serbia first. Only light forces are available to face the Greeks. What follows that spring is a month of heavy combat between the Bulgaria, Greece and Serbia; fighting that the Bulgarians do poorly in over all.

What ends the renewed war is the duel entry of Rumania and the Ottoman Empire into the second Balkan War. With all of the Bulgarians troops in the west, the Romanians are able to occupy Bulgarian Dobruja in the east and in the west advance towards Sophia at the same time the Ottomans retake all of Thrace right up to the pre-war border.

The final result for the war is a near disaster for Bulgaria; the treaties that end the war see Bulgaria losing most but not all of her gains from the First Balkan War and Rumania seizing Dobruja. The Ottoman Empire has kept Thrace but the rest of its territory in Europe and the Aegean Islands are lost. Greece and Serbia greatly expand and a new independent Albania is setup. Goltz in Germany with his pro-Ottoman stance perceived wildly as a disaster.

January British War Staff established

French Army General Staff makes the offensive à outrance official French military doctrine in it's Regulations for the Conduct of Large Units. At the same time the concept of élan remains the heart and core of small unit tactics. As such the traditional blue and red uniform remains despite recommendations to switch to the duller colors used by the African colonial army. “En avant à la baionette” is to remain the central command for infantry.

Despite the continued fixation on a rapid offensive the German fortification project is causing increased debate in France. With the 105mm field gun Model 1911 / L 11 S now in series if low level production the Conseil supérieur de la Guerre has decided to look into other heavy artillery. Lt. Col of Artillery Émile Rimailho is ordered to work on an update to his Canon de 155 C. T. R. court Rimailho modèle 1904; a 155mm rapid firing howitzer. While some suggestion is giving to looking into updating the siege artillery to allow for the reduction of the German fort system it never advances beyond the design and study phase.

January - Reichstag elections with S.P.D. emerging as the strongest party in parliament. The rise of the SPD is the final straw for Goltz government. His Ottoman adventure widely viewed as a disaster and many seeing the rise of the SPD as the first step towards a liberal revolution causes support to fall away from the Chancellor. Goltz growing tired of the continued political battles and intrigues offers to step down as Chancellor but to serve on as War Minister if the Kaiser so wishes. The Kaiser accepts the resignation but who to replace the General as Imperial Chancellor needs to be answered. The leading candidates are Imperial State Secretary for the Interior, Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg, Secretary of State of the Imperial Naval Office Alfred von Tirpitz and Finance Minister Adolf Wermuth. Wermuth quickly falls out of consideration because of his perceived anti military bias as a result of his opposition to past military spending. Tirpitz while an interesting candidate is not without his problems in particular following one military chancellor with another. Instead Bethmann-Hollweg is selected as the replacement for Goltz, but Bethmann-Hollweg will face difficult challenges. Both the army and navy desire to embark on even larger military programs but the budget is already stretched by current programs and the new left leaning Reichstag is unlikely to be sympathetic to more arms programs.
Party Seats – 1912 Seats -1907 Change
Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) 110 43 67
Centre Party 91 105 -14
(Zentrum - Political Catholics)
National Liberal Party 45 54 -9
(NL - National Liberals, right wing Liberals)
German Conservative Party 43 60 -17
(DKP - Conservatives)
Progressive People's Party 42 7
(FVP - Liberals merged into Progressvive People's Party -1910) 28

(DVP - Radical liberals merged into Progressvive People's Party -1910) 7
Poles 18 20 -2
(P - Polish Regionalists in Posen, West Prussia and Upper Silesia)
Deutsche Reichspartei 14 24 -10
(DRP - Conservative Nationalists)
Freeminded Union 14 14
(FV - Liberals, left wing Liberals)
Wirtschaftspartei 10 5 5
(WV - Economy Party)
Elsass-Lothringer 9 7 2
(A - pro-French and Alsatian regionalists in Alsace-Lorraine)
German-Hanoverian Party 5 1 4
(DHP - Hanover regionalists)
Antisemiten 3 16 -13
(AS - Anti-Semites)
Bund der Landwirte 2 8 -6
(BL - Farmer's Union)
Other 2 3 -1
Bavarian Peasants' League 1 -1
(BB)
Dänen 1 1 0
(D - Danish Regionalists in Northern Slesvig)
Total 409 397

Also the 2nd elections are held for the Ducal Diet of Elsaß-Lothringen and Franz Ferdinand’s administration is fully in place after two years. There are still questions over the Grand Duchies military but they are being worked out if slowly.

January 12 – HMS Iron Duke laid down at Portsmouth Dockyard

January 25 - HMS Marlborough laid down at Devonport Dockyard

February - Joffre tells the Conseil supérieur de la Guerre that he is counting on the British for 6 infantry and 1 cavalry divisions to be ready for action by 15th day of mobilization

February 7 - Kaiser Wilhelm talks with the just installed Imperial Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg about the army and navy requests for expanded budget. Erich Ludendorff a General Staff officer has become one of the more vocal members of the “citizen army” faction. Currently Germany uses about 52% of its available annual manpower intake. Ludendorff presents a plan to increase the standing peace time army by over 50%. While this will involve the creation of a number of new Army Corps the majority of the increase is to take place in the form of additional cadre in current formations to allow for more rapid mobilization in time of war. The two Balkan wars showed that speed of mobilization and rapid movement of troops is critical. Such a massive increase in the standing army would besides being expensive have its own set of social problems. As it would mean more solders from urban areas and then there would be the question of additional NCO’s and Regular officers. Such an expansion would greatly upset the social make up of the army.

At the same time Tirpitz wants to add an additional Battle squadron to the fleet, maintaining the current three battleship per year building tempo, more small cruisers, more large torpedo boats and larger crews to allow for more of the fleet, large torpedo boats in particular, to be kept at war readiness in peace time. Tirpitz felt that the fall from power of Goltz means that he can push through his naval bill at the expense of the armies own plan.

If either program is to be enacted as is let alone both the manpower of the military would exceed the constitutional limit of no more than 1% of the population in the military. This limit dates back to the founding of the Empire in 1871 as a way of compromise to the various other kingdoms to limit the power of the new Imperial State. Not to mention the expense, either program would be prohibitively expensive both would be crushingly so in the current budget setup.

At the same time the Kaiser instructs Bethmann-Hollweg to attempt to seek some type of rapprochement with the United Kingdom.

February 22 – Following the unofficial back channel diplomacy of Alfred Ballin and Ernest Cassel an agreement is made for England to send a cabinet level official to discuss the current naval programs of England and Germany. Lord Richard Haldane was sent to have talks in Berlin with the German Government. There Haldane meets with the Kaiser, Chancellor, Admiral Tirpitz and other officials. Haldane focused on getting the Germans to agree to stretching out there new expansion to 1920 or 1921. The new German program would have the Germans building 18 battleships over the next six years instead of 12 as the British had been expecting. The British reply was to have been to build 21 battleships in response, but for each additional the British would build two. So the new German program of 18 battleships would have a reply of 33 British Battleship in the same time period.

When Lord Haldane returned to London the Kaiser gave him an advanced copy of the proposed 1912 naval law. Once the law was shown to the rest of the cabinet in particular Churchill a number of problems were discovered. The most troubling wasn’t the additional battleships; which were a problem by themselves, but the large increase in peace time manning of the fleet. The Admiralty believed that these new manning levels would allow the Germans to attempt a surprise attack without mobilizing. The only response could be an expansion of the royal navy and to move more ships to home waters.

Once the Kaiser heard of the British reaction he was enraged. The Kaiser felt that there was a nearly done deal with Haldane and that the British were now backing out.

March - Churchill announces enlarging the RN, and removal of Mediterranean fleet from Malta to home waters (and with the French realigning their fleet).

March – While Goltz and Ludendorff make their case for the mass army other senior officers are less sure. Many point out that to achieve the desired numbers would mean too many urban middle class officers. Too many, especially the Kaiser, the army is to be above all a defender of the monarchy and old order this expansion would weaken the army for this critical mission. Also others are pointing out the need for more munitions and other weapons which would increase the cost. Moltke and Goltz after discussions work to scale back the program to something less massive. In the end it is decided to go for a less ambitious program because of the dual problems of cost and officer makeup; still Goltz would continue to have the ministry consider the problem. At the same time Tirpitz presses for the larger naval program.

Bethmann-Hollweg feeling trapped between the failure of his first diplomatic adventure and the demands of the military considers resignation. Looking for some type of solution he turns to Finance Minister Adolf Wermuth. Wermuth replies that if both of these programs are going to move forward taxes have to be raised but how is the question? The bulk of constitutionally legal sources have been exhausted and there is the 1% limit on the military for total numbers of troops. In the end the only solution that can be scene is to alter the German constitution. The changes will be in two parts, first is that article 60 of the constitution would be repealed and that the size of the military would be only fixed by law. Second is that whatever shortfall in the Imperial Budget would automatically be passed on to the states of the empire in proportion to their population.

A bruising political battle would follow, in particular in the Bundserat, but in time the changes and military bills would pass.

March 30 – SMS Derfflinger laid down at Blohm & Voß Hamburg.

April 15 - Cambon proposes to Nicholson a renewal of Landsdowne's "May 1905 offer" of an alliance; Grey writes Cambon with promises but no formal arrangement.

May - SMS Kronprinz laid down at Germaniawerft, Kiel

May 30 - HMS Benbow laid down at William Beardmore and Company, Glasgow

May 31 - Emperor of India laid down at Vickers, Barrow-in-Furness

June – Faced with the results of the Balkan wars the Hungarian Parliament decides to act. Long sought approval for an expansion of the peace time army is given. 250 million crowns are voted to update the artillery and fortresses facing Russia. At the same time the artillery is to be reorganized with the Landwehr and Honved to receive their own organic artillery.

At the joint Austro-German staff meeting Generalmajor Blasius Schemua, who replaced Conrad von Hötzendorf as Chief of Staff last fall agrees to several suggestions made by Moltke ; in particular for reforms to be made for the mobilization system of the Royal and Imperial Army. Also the draft plans for a joint campaign vs. Russia are finalized; a massive double envelopment of Congress Poland.

June 20 – HMS Tiger laid down at John Brown and Company, Clydebank, Scotland

July – France and Russia make a General Agreement for a combined invasion of Germany at the start of war. General Victor-Constant Michel, Vice President of the Conseil supérieur de la Guerre continues to work on his Plan XVI which calls for having French reserves on their left flank all the way to the coast and a pre-emptive invasion of Belgium. General Durand and Colonel Pétain travel across Belgium to consider the results of a German or French invasion. Also Russia has a modest expansion of the army, increase the annual call up by 20,000 to 450,000 men.

Two laws are passed by France to strengthen the French army. One reorganizes the Infantry and the other the cavalry. The effect of these laws is to mainly increase the readiness of units without any expansion. At the same time the Army does press for a three year service law to expand the army but without success.

July – SMS Lützow laid down at Schichtau Danzig.

September – With the army, naval and related tax laws at last passed Tirpitz looks to unify the command of the navy. The result is the Seekriegsleitung or SKL (Sea Warfare Command) in place of the current divisions of Reichsmarineamt RMA, Naval Cabinet, Admiralty Staff, North Sea Station, Baltic Sea Station, Foreign Squadron Commander, First Battle Squadron Commander, Cruiser Squadron Commander and Training Commander.

September 10th, The annual meeting of Standing Committee on Wartime Supplies, meets. The last major meeting was in 1910 as the 1911 meeting was put on hold because of the Balkan war to study that conflict. In the mean time subordinates continued to meet to guide the committee’s activities. In light of reports received on the Balkan war and the state of German munitions reserves; following Goltz shipments to the Ottoman Empire Moltke renews his request for increased war stocks of artillery shells and increased monthly production. All that was agreed to was to replace the transferred war material because of reasons of cost. The War Ministry would look into less costly alternatives for artillery and munitions to see if something else might be done in the long term.

New studies show that in the event of a blockade German industry would be have less than 4 months of raw materials. A leading industrialist following receiving the committee’s requests on raw material in turn asked why the War Ministry wanted the information. Once being informed of the reason for the information request the head of Allgemeine Elektrizitäts-Gesellschaft (AEG) offered to help the committee’s activities and act as a bridge between it and industry. Walther Rathenau was added to the committee and requested to setup a sub committee of Industrialists and for them to consider the issues and provide some suggestions. The first results of that sub committee were presented. The industrialists considered the idea of keeping expanded peace time stockpiles of raw materials to be too expensive for the firms. Instead better tracking of raw materials, production capacity and critical machinery would occur. In the event of war controls would be placed on industry to regulate the movement of these items to coordinate needs.

October - SMS Pfalz & SMS Anhalt laid down 10/1/1912, armed with ten 350mm guns in five twin turrets.

November 17 - Poincaré tells Izvolski that France will back Russia in a war against Austria (which he said was backed by Germany)

Conrad von Hötzendorf is once more made chief of staff of the Austro-Hungarian Army.

November 21 - HMS Queen Elizabeth laid down at Portsmouth Dockyard


November 31 - HMS Warspite laid down at Devonport Dockyard

December - Haldane tells German Ambassador that England would aid France if attacked by Germany and could not allow the balance of power to be changed

December 8 - Wilhelm II calls military conference at Potsdam (over Haldane's comment) and the belief at this time is that Britain will back France in any conflict.

December 10 - Greece considers a numbers of designs for a battleship to build in response to Ottoman Construction. For some time AG Vulcan of Hamburg had been the leader but because of the marked pro Ottoman stance of German in the Balkan wars Greece in turns orders a warship from the United Kingdom. Salamis, laid down at Vickers

[miketr]

Originally Posted by Alratan

Politically the British were committed to war. The Tories and half the Liberals were all for it, so if the Liberals decide not to enter the government will fall and the new one will declare.

What is the Casus Belli that Parliment is going to declare war over? The historic time line is clear that until the Germans gave their ultimatium to Belgium many of the UK ministers were going home for the weekend. This is hardly the stance of a nation about to declare war to support France. Also Grey started to pour cold water on French expectations for a declaration of war. Would the UK back France once the war started? For example extending loans, closing the channel, etc? Yes they would but the British have internal distractions and no clear cause for war.

I agree that it isn't in the interest of the UK to allow Germany to become the master of Europe but the UK has no alliance to honor and isn't a dictatorship; they need a reason to declare war.

Originally Posted by Alratan

You should realise this won't work. There aren't massive stockpiles of nitrates available for the Germans to buy. Also, if the French have any sense, they'll simply reflag their ships as British. Additionally, commerce raiding might sink ships, but won't gernate industrially meaningful amounts of loot.

#1) German acces to global trade isn't cut off for 3 months so that buys them 3 months of access to nitrates, copper, food, etc. They also place additional orders. Which takes time to arrive as most such orders are placed weeks / months in advance and then you have to ship across the Atlantic, which takes time via 8 knot steamer. I am not saying the Germans are able to get 2 year supply of stuff, just that there supply situation is different.

#2) Look at the time line, the Germans have paid much closer attention to raw materials and in effect the War Materials Section was formed pre-war. They are aware of what they can and will loose to a blockade. So as soon as the war starts and its clear that the UK isn't going to join in German industry through KRA starts building up a stockpile on what it can from the start and with raw materials control in place from the start.

So net effect is the Germans are better off. 1914 timeline has some differences with respect to the Haber Proccess in terms of plants.

French law is black letter on the subject they can't reflag their shipping. When they do so anyways this becomes one of the Casus Belli for the UK after the Germans start siezing form French flagged shipping. This has interesting side effects down the road.

Originally Posted by Alratan

At this point the Germans didn't realise how critical the nitrate supply was going to be, so didn't realise the importance of their capture until six months later when their own stocks ran out. I posted the details to MrP's world war thread, I'll try to dig it up.

Please

[Alratan]

Originally Posted by miketr

What is the Casus Belli that Parliment is going to declare war over? The historic time line is clear that until the Germans gave their ultimatium to Belgium many of the UK ministers were going home for the weekend. This is hardly the stance of a nation about to declare war to support France. Also Grey started to pour cold water on French expectations for a declaration of war. Would the UK back France once the war started? For example extending loans, closing the channel, etc? Yes they would but the British have internal distractions and no clear cause for war.

Yes, the Liberals weren't completely in favour of the war, and the machinery of government wasn't that efficient. However, the Conservatives were. I'd say they'd enter the war at the latest immediately after German commerce raiding began.

Originally Posted by miketr

I agree that it isn't in the interest of the UK to allow Germany to become the master of Europe but the UK has no alliance to honor and isn't a dictatorship; they need a reason to declare war.

The Germans at this stage will provide one if they start making any use of their sea power.

Originally Posted by miketr

#1) German acces to global trade isn't cut off for 3 months so that buys them 3 months of access to nitrates, copper, food, etc. They also place additional orders. Which takes time to arrive as most such orders are placed weeks / months in advance and then you have to ship across the Atlantic, which takes time via 8 knot steamer. I am not saying the Germans are able to get 2 year supply of stuff, just that there supply situation is different.

Why are the British selling them the nitrates - I believe that they dominated the consortia that controlled the mines? The French will also be engaged in commerce raiding, and it's far easier to perform a distant blockade of Germany than France.

Originally Posted by miketr

#2) Look at the time line, the Germans have paid much closer attention to raw materials and in effect the War Materials Section was formed pre-war. They are aware of what they can and will loose to a blockade. So as soon as the war starts and its clear that the UK isn't going to join in German industry through KRA starts building up a stockpile on what it can from the start and with raw materials control in place from the start.

This is pretty much impossible, I think. The way German strategic thinking (and Entente, to be fair) went, the only war they could contemplate winning was one where they had a rapid victory. Paired with the massive under-estimation of how much material fighting industrial war required, if they correctly estimated how much they'd need to stokcpile they wouldn't be going to war in the first place.

Originally Posted by miketr

So net effect is the Germans are better off. 1914 timeline has some differences with respect to the Haber Proccess in terms of plants.

IOTL, the Germans moved Heaven and Earth to get the Haber process going as soon as they did (see the book I linked above),

Originally Posted by miketr

French law is black letter on the subject they can't reflag their shipping. When they do so anyways this becomes one of the Casus Belli for the UK after the Germans start siezing form French flagged shipping. This has interesting side effects down the road.

I'm confident that the French shipping companies will do it pretty damn quick, whatever the law says. Prosecution is better than death.

Please

This book has details, page 94 onwards.

[Nivek]

Originally Posted by Alratan

Yes, the Liberals weren't completely in favour of the war, and the machinery of government wasn't that efficient. However, the Conservatives were. I'd say they'd enter the war at the latest immediately after German commerce raiding began.



The Germans at this stage will provide one if they start making any use of their sea power.



Why are the British selling them the nitrates - I believe that they dominated the consortia that controlled the mines? The French will also be engaged in commerce raiding, and it's far easier to perform a distant blockade of Germany than France.



This is pretty much impossible, I think. The way German strategic thinking (and Entente, to be fair) went, the only war they could contemplate winning was one where they had a rapid victory. Paired with the massive under-estimation of how much material fighting industrial war required, if they correctly estimated how much they'd need to stokcpile they wouldn't be going to war in the first place.



IOTL, the Germans moved Heaven and Earth to get the Haber process going as soon as they did (see the book I linked above),



I'm confident that the French shipping companies will do it pretty damn quick, whatever the law says. Prosecution is better than death.



This book has details, page 94 onwards.

I think you're forget the POD:

POD
June, Summer Staff ride, Moltke does two runs of a campaign vs. France. The first sends the entire army except 10 divisions in a great wheel through Belgium; the remaining 10 divisions plus 10 Italian Divisions hold the line in Elsaß-Lothringen. The result was a German victory if just. The second test of the campaign has Moltke removing 10 divisions from the right wing to reinforce either the left wing in Elsaß-Lothringen to cover Italy not honoring its alliance or to defend in the East vs. Russia. The result is a stalling of the German attack and it then being driven back when 50 Battalions of a British Expeditionary Force and 66 French Battalions of the Garrisons of Paris and Northern Coasts join the battle at D + 35. A number question the assumptions that the second staff ride operated under.

You can said anything against that POD(postdiction or the use of future sight) but that means that nominally, the know the danger of the 'trench slatemate' who was the WW1 pre USA entry to the war, eternal situation and dilema in the Western Front.

that doesn't means who germany will have perfect supplies(don't throw us lies that impossible for any belligerant in a war), but have a better supply situation or more strategic interesting(like the legendary Operation Unicron).

Again about the British entry of war.... everybody here that will be better for them no entry to the mess... but like a little unavoidable, if the britsh enter to the war for the Entete in december, that means 4 months with lesser troups for france and more spare troups for germany to Russia(again the East first stategy is risky but if Germany doesn't attack belguim before England DOW, that means a little more troups for the eastern front and that means a worse tanneberg)

Again a war is never perfect, you're always work over the way with the aviable resource, and the war didn't start yet.. for that any little butterflies post POD will be crucial for any side.

Att
Nivek von Beldo

[Alratan]

Originally Posted by Nivek

You can said anything against that POD(postdiction or the use of future sight) but that means that nominally, the know the danger of the 'trench slatemate' who was the WW1 pre USA entry to the war, eternal situation and dilema in the Western Front.

The issue is the whole point of the Schliffen Plan is that the Germans don't believe they can sustain and then win a long war on two fronts - that's why they had to knock the French out quickly, as they recognise that the logistical limitations they'll operate under trying to advance into the Russian hinterland mean it will take a long time to beat them.

If they recognise that this is a real risk, why are they going to war in the first place?