Technology

[tom]

Let's see if I get this poll to work:
Starting a million days ago (about 707 BC), what percentage of timelines have a more advanced technology than OTL:
1) <1%
2) 1-10%
3) 10-50%
4) 50-90%
5) >90%

[zoomar]

I would guess that the majority of timelines would be far less technological then OTL as the evolution of industrial technological civilization has depended upon so many earlier developments that the odds of each occuring as in OTL is minimal. I voted for 10-50% (as opposed to 10% or less)because with a PoD beginning after urban, literate, civilization has already developed in many parts of the world, a lot of the prerequisites have already occurred and the trend to technology had already begun.

[Tyr]

1-10% I would say.
I think this is before Greek civilization really took off (not 100% sure though) so first we need to have them (or someone similar come along) then the chances of the Romans after that are small so we are not going to get many similar to our TL.
There will be some where a technilogical civilization has started and they could get luckier then our TL with no great collapse.

This is a infinite number of tls and there are far more ways things can go wrong then things can go right.

[Grey Wolf]

Not knowing the answer and being loathe to guess I would go for 50% - unfortunately that option was not given so I abstain on the poll

Grey Wolf

[DuQuense]

?All we talking in the real milti-Universe, or on these chat pages.?

[Flocculencio]

We can't really tell can we?
100% being more advanced is just as possible as 0% being more advanced.

[Amerigo Vespucci]

Infinite number of universes means that an infinity are more advanced and an infinity are less advanced, so anything is really possibile.

[Norman]

Everything I've been able to learn suggests that technological continued even during the several so-called 'dark ages'. If we look at the most recent (400 ad to 1300ad), we see that the 'dark ages were primarily in Europe and science and technologies contiued to develop everywhere else.

So I think it is likely that the number would be below 50%, but not absolutely 50%, merely because of the amazing ability of humankind to kill men like archamedes.

[tom]

Flocculencio:
Of course we don't know. If we did, I could just state that the percentage is 7.384%, or whatever. That is why this is a poll of opinions, not a posting of a fact.

[Kidblast]

This sounds like something that TMOT would post. It's impossible to know so I think that the answer is the square root of -1.

[Grey Wolf]

Originally Posted by Kidblast

This sounds like something that TMOT would post. It's impossible to know so I think that the answer is the square root of -1.

You are the answer, apparently

I always thought J was, but no

Grey Wolf

[Max Sinister]

Necromancing again, Kidblast?

[Kidblast]

Originally Posted by Max Sinister

Necromancing again, Kidblast?

Again? This is the first time in about 6 months.

[NapoleonXIV]

Originally Posted by DuQuense

?All we talking in the real milti-Universe, or on these chat pages.?

I went by the chat pages and gave 50-90 since a more advanced TL would be more interesting as a story setting, however that is just me.

[Thyme]

Assuming a large number of fair POD's, <10%.

Counting only ones that get fleshed out to a current date or semi-modern tech >90%.

[Glen]

I would have said about 40-60% but that wasn't a choice. I find OTL to be a rather middle of the road one for technological innovation. Plus its usually the safer bet to put yourself somewhere in the middle of the pack in the absence of other information.

[Douglas]

I'll admit that one of the things that bugs me is the tendency for people to nudge technological developments forward in timelines, but very rarely later, unless ASBs are involved.

[HueyLong]

Ia gree... it happens all too often.

Even that pinnacle of TLs, Decades of Darkness, falls into that.

[Jared]

Originally Posted by HueyLong

Ia gree... it happens all too often.

Even that pinnacle of TLs, Decades of Darkness, falls into that.

Ahem... The technology in Decades of Darkness is both ahead and behind OTL, not nudged universally ahead. Some areas are further ahead: engines (both internal combustion and ship engines), tropical medicine, artillery, rockets. But some areas are definitely behind: radio, electronics in general, and nuclear physics, for example. (They won't have nukes or computers until roughly a decade later than OTL, in other words.) This was a deliberate variation from OTL; I figured that due to random factors of some geniuses being born later and some earlier, there would be corresponding changes in when things are developed.