1831: Poland wins!

[tom]

What POD could give Poland (I believe it was just a Polish area at the time) victory over Russia? ASBs need not apply.

[Xen]

Just the Russian Polish area? Or all the Polish area in Russia, Prussia and Austria?

If you are referring to just the Russian Area, perhaps Prussia aids the rebels, maybe even uniting all of Poland under the Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen Kings, a close ally of Prussia, and a nation almost totally dependent on Prussia.