AH Challenge: Prevent the Conquest of Native American Civilizations

Nerdlinger

The premise: European civilization is in ruins. The population of Europe has not necessarily been entirely wiped out, but virtually all of the former organized governments in geographic Europe have collapsed. (This may have been due to disease or a natural disaster or foreign conquerors or any other non-ASB cause; explaining exactly how is not required.) The event(s) which caused the Europeans' demise have had little to no negative effect on any other civilizations in the world.

 The challenge: With a single POD ranging anywhere from 476 CE to 1521 CE, propose a realistic, plausible scenario in which the Aztec and Inca Empires survive conquest by foreign powers. (The closer to the 14th century, the better.) The Aztec and Inca civilizations must advance enough from a technological perspective so as to be able to successfully ward off Old World conquerors, allowing them to persist as independent states until the present. They may not necessarily be stronger or more advanced than the Old World civilizations, but simply strong enough to avoid being conquered. This may be accomplished by any realistic means (such as the acquisition of Old World technology or the development of their own comparable technology). No ASBs allowed.

 The catch: With Europe knocked out, this challenge might seem somewhat easy, as it was Europeans who conquered the Aztecs and Incas in OTL. However, one must consider that the other Old World civilizations, such as those of the Middle and Far East, will likely fill the power gap left by the Europeans. These civilizations may present a similar threat to the peoples of the New World that the Europeans did in OTL.

 Bonus points if your proposal also provides a realistic way to prevent the Old World civilizations from conquering some or all of the native Americans living north of the Aztecs. (This may be accomplished in different ways; for example, by creating a sovereign confederation of native Americans or by having them incorporated into the Aztec Empire itself.)

 With the permission of those who supply the ideas, I hope to incorporate the best of them, along with some ideas of my own, into an alternate timeline which describes the history of a world not dominated by Christian Europeans. See here and here for previous discussion on this proposed timeline. If your proposal is part of a timeline which you have written, are writing, or are intending to write, please say so. Also, please cite your source if the idea is directly from someone else's timeline or published work. I don't want to hijack or rehash anyone else's timeline.

Good luck! :)
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
DJC said:
With a single POD ranging anywhere from 476 CE to 1521 CE, propose a realistic, plausible scenario in which the Aztec and Inca Empires survive conquest by foreign powers.
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Well, any POD would have to be after 1300 or so, as anything else would create so many butterflies that the Aztec and Inca empires wouldn't exist, at least not in anything like their form IOTL. They were both relative newcomers, IIRC.
 

Nerdlinger

Anaxagoras said:
Well, any POD would have to be after 1300 or so, as anything else would create so many butterflies that the Aztec and Inca empires wouldn't exist, at least not in anything like their form IOTL. They were both relative newcomers, IIRC.
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True, but I didn't want place too much of a limit on the range. I was thinking perhaps a minor change in history beforehand (such as something to do with Leif Ericson's voyage around 1000 CE) would produce only very minor butterflies that wouldn't prevent the formation of the Aztec and Inca Empires.
 

NothingNow

Banned
Why not just have them domesticate Javelinas (The Native Pigs/Swine) or something. It's the simplest POD I can think of. And because of how Pigs are they'd have more than a few Really bad diseases Endemic to the Americas. With the diseases comes a knowledge of Quarantine theory and better disease resistance Among Most groups would soften the blow a lot.

Also, If the Butterflies move right you could get a Disease with a Long Incubation period that's Extremely Contagious and has symptoms resembling the Cold or Flu untill the Infected Literally Just drops dead. I.E. perfect for Fucking Over Europe and the Middle East. with ~15% of the population dying off. It'd really just buy the AmerIndians time to adapt to European tactics, but that would be enough to make a difference.
 
Viscount of Ohio

Viscount of Ohio

The only idea that's coming to me right now would be to perhaps have Justinian's plague be more severe in the new timeline, since this outbreak was mostly in the Byzantine empire and towards the east this could greatly reduce the power of the Byzantines, perhaps leading to an early collapse. Without them as a shield against the Middle East, Europe would have to be more wary of their neighbors and place their focus on the defense of their boarders. This could curtail some of their explorations, meaning expeditions are sent out with less frequency or with smaller numbers.

The first encounter between Europeans and the Aztecs or Incas ends with a few skirmishes and some European diseases finding their way into the native populations. This means that, although weakened the empires survive and manage to recover to some degree. Perhaps even recovering arqebuses or cannons from the Europeans.

With enough time between the expeditions by the time the Europeans return again the empires are ready to repel the invasions.

Also, a thought for how to save the Aztec empire specifically, a greater language barrier, or more arrogant conquistadors result in the Spanish being unable to get the tribes conquered by the Aztecs to join their cause again resulting in a far less devastating battle against the Aztec empire.
 

Polish Eagle

Here's my proposal. The Native American civilization in question is changed, but not unrecognizable:

Hernan Cortez, instead of conquering the Aztecs, declares himself their Emperor! After warning what the Europeans can do and buying off the Spanish king with some gold, he builds up the Nahua Empire and expands north and east. His Empire learns iron-working and gun production over the course of several decades.
 

wormyguy

Banned
It's a simple matter for Native American civilizations not to be conquered by Europeans.

Have them be conquered by the Chinese first.
 

NothingNow

Banned
Polish Eagle said:
Here's my proposal. The Native American civilization in question is changed, but not unrecognizable:

Hernan Cortez, instead of conquering the Aztecs, declares himself their Emperor! After warning what the Europeans can do and buying off the Spanish king with some gold, he builds up the Nahua Empire and expands north and east. His Empire learns iron-working and gun production over the course of several decades.
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Good one. Isn't there a TL out there like that already?
 

Nerdlinger

NothingNow said:
Why not just have them domesticate Javelinas (The Native Pigs/Swine) or something. It's the simplest POD I can think of. And because of how Pigs are they'd have more than a few Really bad diseases Endemic to the Americas. With the diseases comes a knowledge of Quarantine theory and better disease resistance Among Most groups would soften the blow a lot.

Also, If the Butterflies move right you could get a Disease with a Long Incubation period that's Extremely Contagious and has symptoms resembling the Cold or Flu untill the Infected Literally Just drops dead. I.E. perfect for Fucking Over Europe and the Middle East. with ~15% of the population dying off. It'd really just buy the AmerIndians time to adapt to European tactics, but that would be enough to make a difference.
Click to expand...

That's a very clever idea, but it would probably need a POD of thousands of years BC. Check out this list of domesticated animals -- most of them were domesticated a long time ago, including the pig (9000 BC). This would make for big butterflies. Also, a contagious New World disease which kills Europeans will also kill other people in the Old World just the same.
 

Locke

I made this map a while back utilizing the same scenario (well, except that the only Old World civilizations that made contact with the new ones were the Chinese-as a result, the Columbian exchange waas nto nearly as disastrous in real-life, and now, horses and whatnot roam across America :D):

Oh, and apologies for the size. If yall want, I can post the full scenario...

blank_carib_start.png
 

Nerdlinger

Viscount of Ohio said:
The only idea that's coming to me right now would be to perhaps have Justinian's plague be more severe in the new timeline, since this outbreak was mostly in the Byzantine empire and towards the east this could greatly reduce the power of the Byzantines, perhaps leading to an early collapse. Without them as a shield against the Middle East, Europe would have to be more wary of their neighbors and place their focus on the defense of their boarders. This could curtail some of their explorations, meaning expeditions are sent out with less frequency or with smaller numbers.

The first encounter between Europeans and the Aztecs or Incas ends with a few skirmishes and some European diseases finding their way into the native populations. This means that, although weakened the empires survive and manage to recover to some degree. Perhaps even recovering arqebuses or cannons from the Europeans.

With enough time between the expeditions by the time the Europeans return again the empires are ready to repel the invasions.

Also, a thought for how to save the Aztec empire specifically, a greater language barrier, or more arrogant conquistadors result in the Spanish being unable to get the tribes conquered by the Aztecs to join their cause again resulting in a far less devastating battle against the Aztec empire.
Click to expand...

In the Black Death thread I linked to in the OP, you'll see how discouragingly many problems there are with making diseases more deadly. I know little of Justinian's plague -- was it truly limited to the Byzantine area or was it just that the most documentation of the plague came from that area? Even if it's not disease, perhaps something else could hurt the Byzantines to produce a similar result.

Yes, the general conclusion from previous discussions seems to be that some sort of low-level contact between the Old World and New World which begins a long time before any major colonization attempts is necessary to essentially prepare the NW for what's coming. (That is, so they have enough time to recover from OW disease and develop more advanced technology.) The trouble I see is how to keep low-level contact from rapidly escalating into high-level contact, not giving the NW enough time to prepare.

I like the idea of reducing the number of Spanish allies against the Aztecs. But by that point, even if the first attempt to take out the Aztecs failed, wouldn't the Spanish just return in a few years with more men and guns?
 

Nerdlinger

Locke said:
I made this map a while back utilizing the same scenario (well, except that the only Old World civilizations that made contact with the new ones were the Chinese-as a result, the Columbian exchange waas nto nearly as disastrous in real-life, and now, horses and whatnot roam across America :D):

Oh, and apologies for the size. If yall want, I can post the full scenario...
Click to expand...

Sure, I'd like to see the whole scenario. Is it in a previous thread? How did you manage to limit the damage to the New World due to the Columbian exchange? And that's an awesome map. I suck when it comes to anything artistic.

In my TL, I haven't determined which Old World civilization will contact the Americas first. I'm torn between the Turks, Arabs, and Chinese, but the TL needs a lot more work before I can even get that far into it.
 

Nerdlinger

Here's a poorly-formed idea that recently hit me: Suppose there are two competing Old World civilizations (e.g., Turks and Arabs) which prop up the Aztecs and Incas to fight a series of proxy wars against one another in the New World. But in doing so, the technology, support, and other stuff the NWers get from the OWers allow them to advance far enough to get out from under the thumb of their former OW allies. Is this far-fetched?
 

Locke

DJC said:
Sure, I'd like to see the whole scenario. Is it in a previous thread? How did you manage to limit the damage to the New World due to the Columbian exchange? And that's an awesome map. I suck when it comes to anything artistic.

In my TL, I haven't determined which Old World civilization will contact the Americas first. I'm torn between the Turks, Arabs, and Chinese, but the TL needs a lot more work before I can even get that far into it.
Click to expand...

The reason the New World is better off is because the transmission happened via peaceful means-Chinese traders brought in and sold horses and guns and stuff, at the same time transmitting Old World disease, wheras in OTL, it was a bunch of fanatical Spanish knights who were spreading death and destruction where they went. As a result, the old world diseases spread more slowly, but within a few decades, the population has recovered and built a resistance to it. And though the Old World flora and fauna will still have the destructive effect it did in OTL, on the whole, the world will be a whole lot better off, because the Europeans aren't there to poach off the confusion.
 

Nerdlinger

Locke said:
The reason the New World is better off is because the transmission happened via peaceful means-Chinese traders brought in and sold horses and guns and stuff, at the same time transmitting Old World disease, wheras in OTL, it was a bunch of fanatical Spanish knights who were spreading death and destruction where they went. As a result, the old world diseases spread more slowly, but within a few decades, the population has recovered and built a resistance to it. And though the Old World flora and fauna will still have the destructive effect it did in OTL, on the whole, the world will be a whole lot better off, because the Europeans aren't there to poach off the confusion.
Click to expand...

I like it. A more peaceful contact. When did the contact occur? Also, would they evolve resistance that quickly? And how did the NW civs hold off the imperalist Spanish, British, French, etc.? Granted, the diseases wouldn't weaken the NW at just the wrong time, but the Old World still has more advanced technology and knowledge (including the metalworking involved in making firearms and ammo) giving them an overwhelming advantage over the NWers.
 

Ofaloaf

With Europeans conked out, why would Arabs go west into the Atlantic? The major reason the Spaniards and Portuguese did it was to circumvent Ottoman control of the overland silk and spice routes.
 

Nerdlinger

Ofaloaf said:
With Europeans conked out, why would Arabs go west into the Atlantic? The major reason the Spaniards and Portuguese did it was to circumvent Ottoman control of the overland silk and spice routes.
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Although it would probably occur later than 1492, I figured the Arabs and Turks would eventually head overseas, discover all the wonderful land and resources in New World, and want it for themselves.
 

Locke

DJC said:
I like it. A more peaceful contact. When did the contact occur? Also, would they evolve resistance that quickly? And how did the NW civs hold off the imperalist Spanish, British, French, etc.? Granted, the diseases wouldn't weaken the NW at just the wrong time, but the Old World still has more advanced technology and knowledge (including the metalworking involved in making firearms and ammo) giving them an overwhelming advantage over the NWers.
Click to expand...

Because, like Ofaloaf said, the Europeans have scrweed up. Basically, I came up with an idea based on a series of disatrous asteroid impacts across the whole Europe-Near East region, destroying most centers of trade and civilization, and thoroughly wiping the slate clean for them. Meanwhile, East Asia and the rest of the world was left more or less unaffected. Eventually, Chiense explorers happen upon the New World sometime in the 17th or 18th century, and prompt the trade off. Considering the Chinese weren't that interested in the first place, and considering the great distances and minimal benefit fior them, the NW develops without much outside political ifnluence.
 

Nerdlinger

Locke said:
Because, like Ofaloaf said, the Europeans have scrweed up. Basically, I came up with an idea based on a series of disatrous asteroid impacts across the whole Europe-Near East region, destroying most centers of trade and civilization, and thoroughly wiping the slate clean for them. Meanwhile, East Asia and the rest of the world was left more or less unaffected. Eventually, Chiense explorers happen upon the New World sometime in the 17th or 18th century, and prompt the trade off. Considering the Chinese weren't that interested in the first place, and considering the great distances and minimal benefit fior them, the NW develops without much outside political ifnluence.
Click to expand...

Ah, I didn't know that in your scenario the civilizations of Europe and the Near East were wrecked. I just thought you had a pre-1492 contact between the Chinese and the New World. When did the impacts occur? Wouldn't that many devastating impacts produce a global nuclear-type winter? That hurts everybody.

My TL so far also includes an extraterrestrial impact, but just a minor one which melts a bunch of ice in Greenland, screwing up the North Atlantic Current for a few years. During this time, Europe's climate becomes much colder, wrecking their agriculture and killing people there in droves.
 
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