The Lightening out of Tatary! Or, what if Muscovy lost to the Mongols?

[Mirza Khan]

So, I'm working on my Louisiana TL, and I have three papers due at the end of this month, and exams next month. So what do I do? Post another TL, of course! Its going to be something of a Muslimwank (but a plausible one, or at least I hope), which starts with the Golden Horde (which becomes known as the Qipchaq Empire in this TL) developing a more stable political system and maintaining control over northern Russia. From there, of course, the effects reverberate through European history. Anyway, here goes! (Much thanks to user Lysandros Aikiedas for some ideas).
Updates to this and Louisiana (which I recommend you check out, its in my sig) will be sporadic for November and early December for the above-mentioned reasons)

One of the most notable Islamic nations in history is the great empire of the Qipchaqs, also known as the Tatars or (archaically) the Golden Horde. Founded by Batu, son of Genghis Khan, in the early 13th century, the empire was converted to Islam by the great Oz Beg Khan in the early 14th century. Though its founders were Mongol, the Empire soon adopted the language, and the name, of its majority ethnic group, the Qipchaq Turks. The empire would come into its own in the 15th century, when Murat Khan began the great pushes, westward into Europe and eastward across the great Steppes of Eurasia, that would ultimately make the Qipchaq Empire the largest nation on earth...
-From An Encyclopedia of the Islamic Nations, entry "Qipchaq Empire"

Of all the cities of the East, surely none can compare to Qazan, master of an Empire greater than that of Rome. The golden domes of her great palaces gleam in the sunlight, and the finest carpets, silks, and spices of the world are avaliable in the Bazaars. The taverns are full of beautiful Circassian dancing girls, whose every step makes a man's blood boil. And I have not even begun to describe the debaucheries and wonders I saw there. Describing the wealth and decadence of this metropolis would take a hundred volumes...
-Jean-Michel LeClerc, Travels in the Orient, 1764. (Many have doubted whether LeClerc ever actually reached Qazan, as some of his descriptions of the city seem rather fantastic)

The year was 1342. Tini Beg, Khan of the Qipchaq Empire, had not held his throne for a year when he was told some disturbing, but not unexpected, information by a spy close to his brother Jani Beg. Angry that he had not been made Khan, Jani Beg was planning on assassinating Tini Beg to rectify the situation. Tini Beg decided to strike first, and successfully arranged to have Jani Beg killed.*

With his troublesome brother dead, Tini Beg launched an offensive against the Chagatai Khanate. The next year, Qipchaq archers killed Qazim, the Chagatai Khan, in battle, and his Khante disintegrated. In the resulting chaos, the Qipchaqs took almost all of the old Chagatai lands, including the great cities of Samarkand and Bukhara and the great Qazaq steppes to their north, with their large population of Turkic nomands. While the Qipchaq's attention was turned elsewhere, the Chupanids in Azerbaijan attacked them through the Caucasus, forcing Tini Beg take his army around the Caspian Sea to confront them. The Qipchaqs succeeded in pushing their enemies back across the Caucasus, and after some hard fighting had taken Azerbaijan by 1348. Tini Beg imported many Persian officials from the conquered lands, whose knowledge of administration greatly increased the effectiveness of the Qipchaq governance.

The long campaigning in Persia meant that Tini Beg had kept his eye off the vassal Russian prinicpalities to the north. Several Russian princes, including Simeon of Muscovy, had taken advantage of this to embezzle some of the tribute they would normally owe to the Qipchaqs. When Tini Beg learned of this in 1350, he summoned Simeon and the prince of Tver (another offender) to the Qipchaq capital of Sarai. Realizing they had been found out and were going to be executed, the two princes led a massive revolt against the Qipchaq Khan. It was brutally crushed in 1351, and many residents of Muscovy and Tver were killed, enslaved, or deported. They were replaced with Persian, Azeri, Turkmen, Qazaq, and Persian colonists. In addition, the Khan sent residents to live in the capitals of all of the Russian princes to keep an eye on them, and commanded that all princes provide their sons as diplomatic hostages, to be educated in Sarai. There would be a few more princely revolts, most notably Ryazan in 1363 (which received the same treatment).

During the Muscovy revolt, the cavalry the Qipchaqs depended on had on a few occasions become bogged down trying to negociate the dense forests surrounding the city. This flaw became even more pronounced when mainly cavalry Qipchaq garrisons were confronted with the problem of keeping large amounts of horses through the winter, and of patroling and (occasionally) fighting in the ever-present woods. Lacking a good infantry force, the Khan decided to create one by buying children from slave markets and having them raised in army baracks, where they were given the best military training the Qipchaq Empire could provide. When they became adults, the new soldiers were declared slaves to the Khan himself, and became the Qipchaq Empire's utterly loyal shock troops. The first of these new military units would enter service in the 1370's. In the meantime, the Khan created military units out of captured POW's and slaves to serve the same function.

The last decade of Tini Beg's reign would be less impressive. In the latter part of the 1350's, tribal revolts took Samarkand and Bukhara away from the Qipchaqs. In 1364. while Tini Beg was celebrating his victory over Ryazan, the Jalayirids, a dynasty based in southwestern Persia, successfully tood Azerbaijan. Tini Beg held on until 1371, when a revolt, led officially by his cousin Orda but in reality controlled by a scheming general named Mamai, succeeded in taking Sarai and killing him. His son Akmet, away campaigning near Samarkand with most of the army, rushed back and defeated Orda and Mamai in a pitched battle. Both were executed, though their supporters took longer to hunt down. In the chaos, Lithuania was able to take the city of Kiev from the Golden Horde. By 1373, the last remnants of the rebellion had been put down, though Kiev remained in the hands of Lithuania.

So, what do you guys think?

*The POD. Jani Beg killed Tini Beg and usurped the throne in OTL. He was assassinated after 15 years of rule, and the Golden Horde [or Qipchaq empire in this TL] plunged into anarchy.

[abas]

Originally Posted by Tolkienguy

The long campaigning in Persia meant that Tini Beg had kept his eye off the vassal Russian prinicpalities to the north. Several Russian princes, including Simeon of Muscovy, had taken advantage of this to embezzle some of the tribute they would normally owe to the Qipchaqs. When Tini Beg learned of this in 1350, he summoned Simeon and the prince of Tver (another offender) to Sarai, where they were executed. Immediately, Muscovy, Tver, and some surrounding cities rose up in revolt. In 1351, Tini Beg brutally crushed the uprising, with the people of the offending cities who weren't killed in the initial onslaught deported or sold into slavery. Tini Beg decided to repopulate the towns with colonists from Azerbaijan, the Qazaq steppe, and northern Persia. Furthermore, he installed a resident in the palace of each of the Russian princes, to keep tight control over them. Furthermore, every prince was ordered to provide his heir as a hostage, to be educated in Sarai. In addition, garrisons were formed in many major Russian cities. Tini Beg's harshness would cause a few more princely revolts, most notably that of Rostov in 1363, which would meet with the same treatment.

I would say the same, what I said to Lysandros Aikiedas, that it is very unlikely to have revolt over execution of some princes. At least in OTL that mesure never met such reaction.

[Lysandros Aikiedes]

Well, I like the way its turning out. Although the actual origins of the Janissaries would have been in the 1300's. But still, that practice seems to have been inspired somewhat by older Mamluks, so no real complaints here.

[Mirza Khan]

Originally Posted by abas

I would say the same, what I said to Lysandros Aikiedas, that it is very unlikely to have revolt over execution of some princes. At least in OTL that mesure never met such reaction.

Think it might make more sense if the Princes realize they're going to get executed and lead the revolt themselves? (I know there were some OTL princely rebellions)

Originally Posted by Lysandros Aikiedes

Well, I like the way its turning out. Although the actual origins of the Janissaries would have been in the 1300's. But still, that practice seems to have been inspired somewhat by older Mamluks, so no real complaints here.

Well, as I remember from The Ottoman Centuries, the Janissaries were founded by Orhan about 20 or 30 years before the Qipchaqs found their equivalent (what do you think it would be called? I don't want to have to call them the Qipchaq Janissaries or Qipchaq Mameluks forever). Though wiki says it was Sultan Murad in the 1360's. (The Ottoman Centuries is rather old). I guess I'll remove the initial reference to the Janissaries and have Tini Beg just adopt the idea from the Mameluks.

[Lysandros Aikiedes]

I've been wondering what would be a sufficient Kipchaq phrase that would parallel the Janissaries. The Turkish "Yeniceri" (can't get the lettering right) means "New Soldier", while "Kapikullari" means "Door Slaves". So maybe Kipchaq words for, "Armed Servants" or "Foot Guards" might describe this new model army better. The "Khan's Slave Tumen", or "Saqaliba Tumen"?!

[Mirza Khan]

Next update. Might take a little longer for the one after this to come.
1371-1417
Immediately after coming to power, Akmet Khan had to deal with Timur Lang, who was gathering power in Central Asia and would soon become a great conquerer. Akmet feared Timur's growing power, but, having just put down Mamai's rebellion, didn't feel secure enough to leave the capital himself. He thus sent a force under Toqtamysh, one of his generals, to deal with Timur. Timur, however, triumphed, killing Toqtamysh and forcing the rest of the army to retreat. Timur then agreed to peace in exchange for tribute from Akmet (Timur had his sights on Persia and didn't want the distraction of a war with the Qipchaqs). From the 1370's through the 1390's, an uneasy peace prevailed between the Qipchaqs and Timur, as Timur brutally subjugated all of Persia and Iraq, in some cases exterminating entire cities and forming towers out of the hapless inhabitant's skulls. Akmet thought more than once of breaking the truce and going to war with Timur, but Timur's military skill and brutality dissauded him. Fearful that the Russian princes might rebel in the event his armies were distracted by a war with Timur, Akmet increased the powers of the residents in their palaces and upped the tribute to prevent any one of them from acquiring a treasury large enough to support a rebellion. The increased pressure caused many princes to begin looking for a way to gain the favor of the Khan, and several, who'd been raised as hostages in Sarai and were acquainted with Qipchaq culture, did the previously unthinkable-they converted to Islam and changed their title to Emir. Many of the new Emirs had to deal with conspiracies to overthrow them, originating in the Russian Orthodox church and its supporters among the nobility. However, Akmet was delighted and immediately decreased the tribute burden and general pressure on them. Though many of the other Rus princes at first denounced the Emirs as quislings, the benefits of the Khan's favor became more and more obvious as the years went by, and the ranks of Muslim princes grew in number.

In 1400, the long peace between Timur and Akmet ended when Timur attacked the Egyptian Mameluks, who had been allied with the Qipchaqs for over a century. Akmet weighed his options, but decided the time had come to check Timur's power, and came galloping down the Caucasus with thousands of Qipchaq cavalry and the Qipchaq slave infantry, increasingly known as the Saqaliba Tuman (Slavic regiment, after the ethnic origin of most of its members). The army crossed into Syria and came down from the north to Damascus, under siege from Timur's armies, while a Mameluk force came up from the south. The armies were able to coordinate a simultaneous attack on Timur's forces. The epic struggle which ensued went on for several days, but in the end, Timur's forces, facing the battle hardened Qipchaq and Mameluk cavalry, and the Saqaliba Tuman (soon to become famous-or infamous-throughout Europe) went down in defeat. Timur himself was most likely killed in the fighting, though his body was never found and the legends of his escape would grow up throughout the Muslim world, and for the next few decades, it seemed every rabble-rouser and would-be conqueror claimed to be Timur, or Timur's son.

Meanwhile, the destruction of Timur's Empire left an power vacuum in Persia, one which the Qipchaqs immediately attempted to fill. Qipchaq armies quickly occupied Central Asia, including Timur's old capital of Samarkand. Timur had made a policy of deporting artisans and architects from conquered cities to Samarkand to beautify it, and these people were sent to Sarai. Akmet Khan proclaimed himself Shah of Persia and sought to bring the whole country under his authority, setting up the Jalayirids (who had been defeated by Timur) as a vassal in the south and keeping the north for himself.

It was, however, not to be. Opposition to the Qipchaqs was quickly taken up by a Turkmen tribal federation known as the Qara Qoyunlu, or Black Sheep, led by Qara Yusuf. Operating from Azerbaijan, Qara Yusuf took Tabriz in 1403 and refused to be dislodged, beginning what would become known to the Qipchaqs as the Great Persian War. In 1405, the Jalayirids were convinced to betray their former masters and switch allegiance to the Qara Qoyunlu, but the war between Qara Yusuf and Akmet Khan continued, back and forth, for six more years. The Qipchaqs fought behind long and difficult supply lines, either across the Caucasus (rather close to Qara Yusuf's power base, a fact he quickly exploited, allying with the native tribes to harass Qipchaq supply caravans) or across the deserts of central Asia. The war increasingly drained the Qipchaq treasury, and in 1411, Akmet Khan gave up and made peace with Qara Yusuf. While the Qipchaqs were able to keep most of Turkestan and Khorosan, they agreed to withdrawl from Persia.

Akmet Khan now turned his attention to his north. During his 11 year occupation of Persia, he had allowed many of its residents, refugees from Timur's wars, to settle in the Russian principalities and emirates, along with Turks from central Asia. In 1406, to bolster the ranks of the Saqaliba Tuman, he had ordered every non-Muslim family in Qipchaq lands to provide one son to join its ranks. The decree provoked much anger, and led to several peasant revolts in the Russian lands. Akmet deported all of the offenders to the Qipchaq's eastern Siberian steppes, where they joined Qazaqs and Turkmen who were gradually, with the Khan's encouragement, beginning to colonize the lands to the Qipchaq's east, pushing the empire's frontier in that direction. The depopulated areas in the Rus principalities were in turn settled with Muslim colonists. More and more princes were choosing to convert to Islam, and many slavs, first the merchants and nobility but eventually commoners as well, saw the benefit in following them. Gradually over the 15th century, many cities in what had once been the land of the Rus would become at least partially Islamicized.

Meanwhile, 1415, the Khan's new focus on he north was confirmed when the capital was moved up the Volga to Qazan, which had begun to emerge as a center of trade between the steppe and Central Asia on one hand, and the Rus and northern Europe on the other. Akmet had the artisans from Samarkand draw up plans for palaces, mosques, and new public buildings befitting the new city of the Khans, but he never lived to see them. He died in 1417, and his son Murat inherited the reins of the empire. The new Khan began work on his father's great capital, but soon had other things on his mind. Growing Qipchaq power had greatly alarmed the Swedes, Novgorod, Lithuania, and the Teutonic Knights, and Murat's reign would be very eventful indeed.

[Mirza Khan]

Another thing-what are the northern Russian cities going to be called? Moscow is already Islamicized, and most of the others are going to be to some degree or another. I figure the Qipchaqs keep a lot of the old names, but what does everyone on here think?

[MerryPrankster]

Interesting TL. Keep up the good work.

[Lysandros Aikiedes]

The urban population in Russia may take a century to sufficently Islamicize, but the rural populace would still remain largely Christian, and thus, the main source of recruits for the Saqaliba Tuman. And while the Christian Slavic peasantry are often little better than slaves, the urban Christians of Moscow, Tver, and Vladimir-Suzdal may form part of a priveliged class in comparison. They would probably be employed to represent the Khan's commercial interests in Scandinavia and western Europe. The Russian Orthodox Church would represent the Christian Dhimmis of the Khanate, although the Metropolitan Bishop could be kept close at hand in Qazan, so as not to become a figurehead for any possible uprisings.

[Mirza Khan]

Originally Posted by Lysandros Aikiedes

The urban population in Russia may take a century to sufficently Islamicize, but the rural populace would still remain largely Christian, and thus, the main source of recruits for the Saqaliba Tuman. And while the Christian Slavic peasantry are often little better than slaves, the urban Christians of Moscow, Tver, and Vladimir-Suzdal may form part of a priveliged class in comparison. They would probably be employed to represent the Khan's commercial interests in Scandinavia and western Europe. The Russian Orthodox Church would represent the Christian Dhimmis of the Khanate, although the Metropolitan Bishop could be kept close at hand in Qazan, so as not to become a figurehead for any possible uprisings.

The Christian populations of Moscow and Tver were deported, and replaced with Muslim colonists in the 1350's in this TL. I suppose Christian merchants would eventually move back in though. As for the Islamicization of the countryside, I was trying to prevent some kind of Russian nationalist movement from forming in the 18th or 19th century and taking away all of Qipchaq territory west of the Volga (like OTL Serbian nationalism in the Ottoman Empire). But you have a point, it might be a little unrealistic

I don't know about "little better than serfs"-OTL Christian residents of the Balkans under Ottoman rule didn't have it that bad. Christian peasants will not have all the same political rights as Muslims, sure-but they won't be bound to the land or have any other of the restrictions serfs did.

Also, serfdom became popular in Russia and other parts of eastern Europe due to western European demand for agricultural goods like grain. Qipchaq-dominated Russia is going to be trading much less with Europe and much more with the Middle East-different patterns which could easily butterfly OTL serfdom (or any equivalent insitution) away.

[Cylon_Number_14]

This is a very interesting timeline, focusing on a unique topic. It goes near the top of my list! Along with the Realm of the Mountain and the Suebi Superpower. I don't know enough of any of these topics to help out, but that's why I love reading them!

[abas]

Originally Posted by Tolkienguy

Think it might make more sense if the Princes realize they're going to get executed and lead the revolt themselves? (I know there were some OTL princely rebellions)

This may be better, but it is hardly possible for them to cooperate. They were old and fierce rivals.

[Lysandros Aikiedes]

Originally Posted by abas

This may be better, but it is hardly possible for them to cooperate. They were old and fierce rivals.

They're not stupid. They must have known that rebelling against the powerful Qipchaqs on their own would have been extreme folly at any rate.

[Nugax]

Originally Posted by Tolkienguy

The Christian populations of Moscow and Tver were deported, and replaced with Muslim colonists in the 1350's in this TL. I suppose Christian merchants would eventually move back in though. As for the Islamicization of the countryside, I was trying to prevent some kind of Russian nationalist movement from forming in the 18th or 19th century and taking away all of Qipchaq territory west of the Volga (like OTL Serbian nationalism in the Ottoman Empire). But you have a point, it might be a little unrealistic

I don't know about "little better than serfs"-OTL Christian residents of the Balkans under Ottoman rule didn't have it that bad. Christian peasants will not have all the same political rights as Muslims, sure-but they won't be bound to the land or have any other of the restrictions serfs did.

Also, serfdom became popular in Russia and other parts of eastern Europe due to western European demand for agricultural goods like grain. Qipchaq-dominated Russia is going to be trading much less with Europe and much more with the Middle East-different patterns which could easily butterfly OTL serfdom (or any equivalent insitution) away.

This is a cool timeline that I'd like to see continued but I think the bolded is part is unlikely. Firstly moving that number of people in and out is probably beyond the capacity of states at the time, and I'm not sure where that many muslim colonists could be found. Secondly they would wholy be dependent of the christain hinterland to feed them, so why wouldn't the displaced persons just move twenty miles upriver and found a new city (see how moscow itself developed) whilst the rump the muslims inhabit would wither. Finally the northern woodlands require an agricultural and skills package that these muslim colonists would utterly lack (and indeed, is highly dependent on Pigs and Beer for survival) and if the prior residents are gone who are they going to learn from?

Anyway here is a map of the russian climate overlaid onto the Volga basin, from south to north the colours are desert=red, scrubland=yellow, steppe=light brown, wooded steppe=brown, decidious forest=bright green, mixed heavy forest=darker green and boreal forest=darkest green. Thus I could see your population shift happening in Ryazan with its more clement climate suitable to wheat farming the colonists will know how to do, but not Moscow or Tver. Kazan was trade based and got its food from the VOlga transport network, something that would be much harder to do fro Moscow and Tver.

[Mirza Khan]

Originally Posted by Nugax

This is a cool timeline that I'd like to see continued but I think the bolded is part is unlikely. Firstly moving that number of people in and out is probably beyond the capacity of states at the time, and I'm not sure where that many muslim colonists could be found. Secondly they would wholy be dependent of the christain hinterland to feed them, so why wouldn't the displaced persons just move twenty miles upriver and found a new city (see how moscow itself developed) whilst the rump the muslims inhabit would wither. Finally the northern woodlands require an agricultural and skills package that these muslim colonists would utterly lack (and indeed, is highly dependent on Pigs and Beer for survival) and if the prior residents are gone who are they going to learn from?

Anyway here is a map of the russian climate overlaid onto the Volga basin, from south to north the colours are desert=red, scrubland=yellow, steppe=light brown, wooded steppe=brown, decidious forest=bright green, mixed heavy forest=darker green and boreal forest=darkest green. Thus I could see your population shift happening in Ryazan with its more clement climate suitable to wheat farming the colonists will know how to do, but not Moscow or Tver. Kazan was trade based and got its food from the VOlga transport network, something that would be much harder to do fro Moscow and Tver.

I got into the "pigs and beer" argument with another board member who I pm'ed about this TL. Basically, I don't see why goats or sheep (which Turkic farmers would be used to) can't be a substitute for pigs, and dried fruit and stored grain be a substitute for beer. Several colder forested areas (the Vale of Kashmir, parts of northwest Pakistan, the high Caucasus) host Muslim populations who have lived there for centuries and get along just fine without pork or alcohol. But I do see your point about being used to the environment-I'll have Ryazan get a mostly Muslim population, and Moscow be mixed Christian/Muslim. (The important thing is that the powerful Muscovy created by Ivan Kalita is destroyed, so there's never a Slavic state that can really challenge the Tatars)

The original idea was that the Qipchaqs pulled the new colonists from the parts of Azerbaijan, Central Asia, and the Kazakh-populated steppes, and later got settlers from Persia during their 11 year rule of parts of it (which was right after Timur-probably lots of refugees from his conquests floating around).

Do you know anything about what Kazan would have looked like in the early 15th century when the Qipchaqs make it their capital? (I'm going to have a few "stories" in this TL, including one from the point of view of Khan Murat while his new palace is being built in Kazan)

[Lysandros Aikiedes]

What I said before about the rural Christian Slavs of the Qipchaq Khanate was that as Dhimmis, they would be forbidden to ride horses, so they probably would be confined to the region by circumstances. And if they lived on the estates of a Tatar landlord, he might do what he can to retain his labour force, and any tenant behind on their rents or had suffered poor harvests would end up in serious debt, thus becoming permanently fixed to the land. Plus raiding into Christian Europe would bring in a sizable number of slaves into the Qipchaq Empire. This may not be the case for every Christian Dhimmi in Qipchaq lands, especially if they are churchmen, merchants, or serving in the diplomatic service of the Khan whenever he feels that he needs to build bridges with a powerful Christian state in the west.

[Nugax]

Originally Posted by Tolkienguy

I got into the "pigs and beer" argument with another board member who I pm'ed about this TL. Basically, I don't see why goats or sheep (which Turkic farmers would be used to) can't be a substitute for pigs, and dried fruit and stored grain be a substitute for beer. Several colder forested areas (the Vale of Kashmir, parts of northwest Pakistan, the high Caucasus) host Muslim populations who have lived there for centuries and get along just fine without pork or alcohol. But I do see your point about being used to the environment-I'll have Ryazan get a mostly Muslim population, and Moscow be mixed Christian/Muslim. (The important thing is that the powerful Muscovy created by Ivan Kalita is destroyed, so there's never a Slavic state that can really challenge the Tatars)

Replacing pigs, the organic waste disposal? Firstly Sheep can't be fed as terrible a diet as pigs, and they need significant areas of grassland that can be hard to find in the dense and flat forests of northern Russia (the examples you give all have clear highland and lowland areas in easy reach of the woods, and also see clear dry seasons for grazing). Goats can be fed a terrible diet but produce much less meat per input calories than pigs (pigs on the other hand need much more water - which isn't a problem in the north), secondly the goat breeds that can handle cold produce even less meat per input and are troublesome to keep to boot, and third goats need to be walked around a bit whilst you can keep a pig in a shed all its life gives less infrastructure needed for the settled peasant farmer.

Beer is there to provide a way to consume hops and barley (which utilise land thats marginal for other cereals) and give a quick and firewood free way to purify dubious water, which is important in a wet climate. Its not for nothing that Russia is still the worlds largest barley grower . Dried fruit and stored grain are much worse ideas in the dampness of northern Europe and Asia and will succumb to rot much faster than they do in the middle east. Plus storing grain requires more coordination and infrastructure than beer again.

I'm not saying that a Goat and grain muslim culture wouldn't survive in the northern forests, just that a culture that embraces pigs and beer will see significantly higher productivity (and thus long term demographic dominance).

Do you know anything about what Kazan would have looked like in the early 15th century when the Qipchaqs make it their capital? (I'm going to have a few "stories" in this TL, including one from the point of view of Khan Murat while his new palace is being built in Kazan)

Well the Bolaq would probably still be built making the central city a long narrow island effectively bounded by water and the many rivers - the Volga is so wide at this point on its flow that it looks like a lake. It lies on pretty flat ground as well and be bounded by walls just a slight bit up from the waterfront. It'll probably be quite multicultural (I still have doubts about there being enough colonists to displace the Slavics, Bulgers, Finnics and local Tartars), and have near exclusively wooden buildings except for the major civic features.

[abas]

Originally Posted by Lysandros Aikiedes

They're not stupid. They must have known that rebelling against the powerful Qipchaqs on their own would have been extreme folly at any rate.

You are right, they aren't stupid. And as smart guys would do as follows:
In the case prince Simeon had embezzled taxes, prince of Tver would go to Saray to report and, if prince of Moscow get executed, to assure the title of the Grand Prince to himself.
In another case prince Simeon (he, as the Grand Prince, is charged with responsibility to collect taxes and to bring them to Saray), would go to the Grand Khan and come back with tatar army to punish the offender.

[abas]

Originally Posted by Nugax

This is a cool timeline that I'd like to see continued but I think the bolded is part is unlikely. Firstly moving that number of people in and out is probably beyond the capacity of states at the time, and I'm not sure where that many muslim colonists could be found. Secondly they would wholy be dependent of the christain hinterland to feed them, so why wouldn't the displaced persons just move twenty miles upriver and found a new city (see how moscow itself developed) whilst the rump the muslims inhabit would wither. Finally the northern woodlands require an agricultural and skills package that these muslim colonists would utterly lack (and indeed, is highly dependent on Pigs and Beer for survival) and if the prior residents are gone who are they going to learn from?

Anyway here is a map of the russian climate overlaid onto the Volga basin, from south to north the colours are desert=red, scrubland=yellow, steppe=light brown, wooded steppe=brown, decidious forest=bright green, mixed heavy forest=darker green and boreal forest=darkest green. Thus I could see your population shift happening in Ryazan with its more clement climate suitable to wheat farming the colonists will know how to do, but not Moscow or Tver. Kazan was trade based and got its food from the VOlga transport network, something that would be much harder to do fro Moscow and Tver.

Very good point.
And the note on the map: Then steppe and wooded steppe were mush closer to Ryazan than now. Herds of Tatars were heavy pressing on forests.

[Mirza Khan]

Originally Posted by abas

You are right, they aren't stupid. And as smart guys would do as follows:
In the case prince Simeon had embezzled taxes, prince of Tver would go to Saray to report and, if prince of Moscow get executed, to assure the title of the Grand Prince to himself.
In another case prince Simeon (he, as the Grand Prince, is charged with responsibility to collect taxes and to bring them to Saray), would go to the Grand Khan and come back with tatar army to punish the offender.

And Simeon gets the summons to Sarai, realizes he's been found out, and decides that, instead of going to his death in Sarai, he's going to go down fighting. After the whole thing is over, the Khan figures it proves that Russian princes can't be trusted to collect the tribute and appoints one of his own officials to do it. No prince is again allowed to accumulate the kind of power Ivan Kalita did.

Originally Posted by Nugax

Replacing pigs, the organic waste disposal? Firstly Sheep can't be fed as terrible a diet as pigs, and they need significant areas of grassland that can be hard to find in the dense and flat forests of northern Russia (the examples you give all have clear highland and lowland areas in easy reach of the woods, and also see clear dry seasons for grazing). Goats can be fed a terrible diet but produce much less meat per input calories than pigs (pigs on the other hand need much more water - which isn't a problem in the north), secondly the goat breeds that can handle cold produce even less meat per input and are troublesome to keep to boot, and third goats need to be walked around a bit whilst you can keep a pig in a shed all its life gives less infrastructure needed for the settled peasant farmer.

Beer is there to provide a way to consume hops and barley (which utilise land thats marginal for other cereals) and give a quick and firewood free way to purify dubious water, which is important in a wet climate. Its not for nothing that Russia is still the worlds largest barley grower . Dried fruit and stored grain are much worse ideas in the dampness of northern Europe and Asia and will succumb to rot much faster than they do in the middle east. Plus storing grain requires more coordination and infrastructure than beer again.

I'm not saying that a Goat and grain muslim culture wouldn't survive in the northern forests, just that a culture that embraces pigs and beer will see significantly higher productivity (and thus long term demographic dominance).

Point-no mass Islamicization of the countryside (the cities, on the other hand, mostly import their food, so I guess they could develop a large Muslim population.

Well the Bolaq would probably still be built making the central city a long narrow island effectively bounded by water and the many rivers - the Volga is so wide at this point on its flow that it looks like a lake. It lies on pretty flat ground as well and be bounded by walls just a slight bit up from the waterfront. It'll probably be quite multicultural (I still have doubts about there being enough colonists to displace the Slavics, Bulgers, Finnics and local Tartars), and have near exclusively wooden buildings except for the major civic features.

Well, I though "Kipchak (or Qipchaq)", "(Volga) Bulgar", and "Tatar" all described basically the same ethnicity (I know Kipchak has come to be used for a broader subset of the Turkic languages, but the Golden Horde was called the "Qipchaq Khanate" during its existence, which is where I got "Qipchaq Empire" from)

If you know of any good maps or histories of Kazan, feel free to PM me. I just know it was a major trade center and the capital of the Qazan Khanate after the Golden Horde broke apart, I picked it as the capital because I noticed it king of stood right at the boundery of the southern steppe region of the empire that forms its power base, and the forest, culturally slavic region the empire wants to control and use as a base to expand into Europe, (the way Constantinople was right between Anatolia and the Balkans) and because I thought it would be very ironic if Qazan ruled Moscow instead of the other way around

Originally Posted by Lysandros Aikiedes

What I said before about the rural Christian Slavs of the Qipchaq Khanate was that as Dhimmis, they would be forbidden to ride horses, so they probably would be confined to the region by circumstances. And if they lived on the estates of a Tatar landlord, he might do what he can to retain his labour force, and any tenant behind on their rents or had suffered poor harvests would end up in serious debt, thus becoming permanently fixed to the land. Plus raiding into Christian Europe would bring in a sizable number of slaves into the Qipchaq Empire. This may not be the case for every Christian Dhimmi in Qipchaq lands, especially if they are churchmen, merchants, or serving in the diplomatic service of the Khan whenever he feels that he needs to build bridges with a powerful Christian state in the west.

You know, when the Ottomans came up the Balkan pennensula in the 14th century, life for the average Balkan peasant actually improved, as the Ottomans hadn't developed all the restrictive feudal rules European society had (of course, that changed in the 17th-19th centuries with the decline of the Ottoman government, so in later times, the position of Christian peasants might approach serfdom if the Qipchaqs follow the trajectory of the Ottomans, which is what I'm planning on).