WI: The Sino-Soviet border clashes of 1969 escalated into war?
- Thread starter Timmy811
- Start date
Probably Not...
Something that would immediately happen is that , if the violence ever got too dangerous, you would have the United States intervene as a diplomatic go-between. Consider Richard Nixon, one of the quintessential Cold Warriors, with his Secretary of State Henry Kissinger would begin the effort to act as go-between in the crisis for several reasons. First to negotiate a withdrawal from the conflict in Vietnam in a "peace with honor". Second, in an effort to improve relations with the People's Republic of China, consider an earlier version of "ping-pong diplomacy", based on a nuclear distrust of the Soviet Union. While the negotiations with the Soviet Union would be aimed at preventing China from moving into Vietnam after American withdrawal, and to negotiate an arms reduction treaty. This would certainly be risky, especially since China still remembers bitterly the Korean War and the support of Taiwan and its Kuomingtang government...
Something that would immediately happen is that , if the violence ever got too dangerous, you would have the United States intervene as a diplomatic go-between. Consider Richard Nixon, one of the quintessential Cold Warriors, with his Secretary of State Henry Kissinger would begin the effort to act as go-between in the crisis for several reasons. First to negotiate a withdrawal from the conflict in Vietnam in a "peace with honor". Second, in an effort to improve relations with the People's Republic of China, consider an earlier version of "ping-pong diplomacy", based on a nuclear distrust of the Soviet Union. While the negotiations with the Soviet Union would be aimed at preventing China from moving into Vietnam after American withdrawal, and to negotiate an arms reduction treaty. This would certainly be risky, especially since China still remembers bitterly the Korean War and the support of Taiwan and its Kuomingtang government...
Mr_ Bondoc said:
You don't think Nixon wouldn't take advantage of China's perdiciment to attack North Vietnam? I think he would see it as his one chance to win the war, he desperatly didn't want to become the first President to lose a war. With Chinese armies fighting the Soviets in Manchuria they wouldn't be able to do anything about it. The supplies that China was sending south would have dried up as well.
The Sandman
Banned
Well, India would probably jump in against China to try and get revenge for the border war in 1962. You might also have some nasty consequences in the Third World when the Soviet and Chinese-backed revolutionary movements turn on each other. And yeah, we'd probably invade North Vietnam while both Communist powers were distracted.
Assuming the war somehow avoids going nuclear, then I would pick the Chinese win in the end. They would simply be able to bleed the Russians out, and the Russians would be trying to fight the war at the far end of a single rail line. We would probably mediate the peace talks, and the Chinese would probably get some minor border adjustments in Manchuria, and possibly control over Mongolia.
Also, North Korea would probably go under. Either it comes in on the side of one of the combatants, or it gets invaded to prevent that; regardless of which it is, I just don't seem them surviving a war fought in Manchuria.
Assuming the war somehow avoids going nuclear, then I would pick the Chinese win in the end. They would simply be able to bleed the Russians out, and the Russians would be trying to fight the war at the far end of a single rail line. We would probably mediate the peace talks, and the Chinese would probably get some minor border adjustments in Manchuria, and possibly control over Mongolia.
Also, North Korea would probably go under. Either it comes in on the side of one of the combatants, or it gets invaded to prevent that; regardless of which it is, I just don't seem them surviving a war fought in Manchuria.
DMA said:China, though, has the numbers. There's an old Russian joke about such a war. It starts with the Russians killing off a few million Chinese within the first week. Russia surrenders in the second week.
Japan did quite well despite the numbers untill they attcked the US and allies. Don't see why the Soviets with an even greater tech advantage wouldn't do at least as well.
The Sandman
Banned
I don't think that the Soviets had that enormous a tech advantage over the Chinese; one would think that for the most part they would be using the same tech. Also, from what I understand, Manchuria is a bitch to invade due to it being very hilly, with a limited number of viable routes south. And again, the Russians would be shipping all of their supplies over the Trans-Siberian Railroad. With the Chinese attitude towards losses in combat, the PLA would probably just throw aircraft at it until it had been severed. And how many of the best Russian divisions would actually be deployed east, what with the need to keep stuff in place to fight NATO?
Besides all of this, the U.S. would likely have tried to help China; after all, a Soviet victory would be disastrous for the balance of power. I don't mean that we would actually attack the Russians, but we would probably start quietly shipping stuff to the Chinese, stage military exercises in Western Europe, etc.
And I said India would try to get revenge. Emphasis on "try", because at this point the Indian military pretty much sucked and the Himalayas aren't exactly conducive to large-scale operations. The Indians would just be an annoyance to the Chinese, to be dealt with later.
Besides all of this, the U.S. would likely have tried to help China; after all, a Soviet victory would be disastrous for the balance of power. I don't mean that we would actually attack the Russians, but we would probably start quietly shipping stuff to the Chinese, stage military exercises in Western Europe, etc.
And I said India would try to get revenge. Emphasis on "try", because at this point the Indian military pretty much sucked and the Himalayas aren't exactly conducive to large-scale operations. The Indians would just be an annoyance to the Chinese, to be dealt with later.
The USSR had 25 divisions and 1200 aircraft on the border. They surely were equiped with T-65s, while the Chinese at best would have T-55 knockoffs. If one looks at the border clashes that did take place the PRC got whipped, in the biggest one the casulty ratio was 800 to 60. That's 13-1.
Well the Soviets had so much faith in their ground forces that they stationed several regiments of nuclear armed IRBMs all along the border. Afterall, like the Japanese, the Soviets would have to split their forces along two fronts - although in this case it'll be the European & the Chinese front.
Now unlike when China faced Japan, when facing the USSR you'll have a unified country with a unified command. It was a completely different story during the Sino-Japanese War.
Now unlike when China faced Japan, when facing the USSR you'll have a unified country with a unified command. It was a completely different story during the Sino-Japanese War.
The thing with nukes is that the conflict probably would go nuclear, at least at the tactical level.
During some sort of joint military conference during the Cold War, a Chinese general bragged to a US general that China could survive a nuke war due to its large population. The general took some markers representing nuclear strikes and set them on a board representing a map of China.
A few dozen nukes would have killed off 75% of China's population. The Chinese general took one look and threw up.
During some sort of joint military conference during the Cold War, a Chinese general bragged to a US general that China could survive a nuke war due to its large population. The general took some markers representing nuclear strikes and set them on a board representing a map of China.
A few dozen nukes would have killed off 75% of China's population. The Chinese general took one look and threw up.
And in reality using nukes would probably be what the Soviets would have to do at some point.
What that esculates to, however, who knows. Certainly the Chinese will try to retaliate, & we're talking 1969, so they'd have some IRBMs probably the DF-2. They had a 12 KT or 3 MT warhead so a couple of those would get the Soviet's attention.
Of course any nuclear exchange would also get the Americans attention. And who knows what Nixon would do.
What that esculates to, however, who knows. Certainly the Chinese will try to retaliate, & we're talking 1969, so they'd have some IRBMs probably the DF-2. They had a 12 KT or 3 MT warhead so a couple of those would get the Soviet's attention.
Of course any nuclear exchange would also get the Americans attention. And who knows what Nixon would do.
Xen
Banned
It would lead to pretty much an earlier collapse of Communism. The Soviet-Sino war would be much more expesnive to the Russians in terms of money and manpower than the Afghan war in the 1980s.
It will kill the Chinese government too, the Soviets will likely win the war, they have a slight edge. If it looks like they're losing they will likely use a nuke or two to tip the scales. The Soviets could also call on the Warsaw Pact, now its true that the Warpac was only to be used to defend Europe from NATO attacks, but Eastern Europe was also supposed to be a collection of sovereign nations, the Soviets constantly violated that when they stepped out of line, so its not hard to see the Soviets calling on their allies for troop support.
Throw in India attacking Tibet, China is not going to win this war. In the end China accepts full responsibility for the war, its government becomes a puppet of the Soviet Union, much like Eastern Europe. Uighuristan becomes a Republic in the USSR, Tibet is turned into an independent country allied closely to India, Manchuria could also be severed from China as another Soviet puppet and a buffer state.
North Korea would probably ally with China, but probably wont send any combat troops, or theyd declare neutrality. The DMZ war was pretty hot at this point if I remember correctly, perhaps it becomes a full scale combat zone? If North Korea gets involved in another conflict with the United States and South Korea it will be destroyed, unless like last time the Chinese or Soviets are there to bail them out.
Vietnam could go either way.
In the end the USSR collapses earlier, perhaps more violently than OTL, China like Eastern Europe breaks away from Soviet control, it might form a coalition government with Taiwan, and eventually the two Chinas unite under one government and one flag. I could even see China digging up some decendent of the Emperor's to use as a symbol for the whole country to unite behind, and hopefully avoid another informal European-American colonization of their country. Hendryk would know more about that than I though.
It will kill the Chinese government too, the Soviets will likely win the war, they have a slight edge. If it looks like they're losing they will likely use a nuke or two to tip the scales. The Soviets could also call on the Warsaw Pact, now its true that the Warpac was only to be used to defend Europe from NATO attacks, but Eastern Europe was also supposed to be a collection of sovereign nations, the Soviets constantly violated that when they stepped out of line, so its not hard to see the Soviets calling on their allies for troop support.
Throw in India attacking Tibet, China is not going to win this war. In the end China accepts full responsibility for the war, its government becomes a puppet of the Soviet Union, much like Eastern Europe. Uighuristan becomes a Republic in the USSR, Tibet is turned into an independent country allied closely to India, Manchuria could also be severed from China as another Soviet puppet and a buffer state.
North Korea would probably ally with China, but probably wont send any combat troops, or theyd declare neutrality. The DMZ war was pretty hot at this point if I remember correctly, perhaps it becomes a full scale combat zone? If North Korea gets involved in another conflict with the United States and South Korea it will be destroyed, unless like last time the Chinese or Soviets are there to bail them out.
Vietnam could go either way.
In the end the USSR collapses earlier, perhaps more violently than OTL, China like Eastern Europe breaks away from Soviet control, it might form a coalition government with Taiwan, and eventually the two Chinas unite under one government and one flag. I could even see China digging up some decendent of the Emperor's to use as a symbol for the whole country to unite behind, and hopefully avoid another informal European-American colonization of their country. Hendryk would know more about that than I though.
DMA said:
With 500,000 American soldiers in Vietnam the Soviets can strip Europe of most of it's forces and not have to worry about NATO intervention. The country was convulsing from the affects of the cultural revolution, and the Soviets were far better organized then the Japanese ever were.
Timmy811 said:
500 000 Americans in Vietnam? Since when?
Furthermore, if the war escalates beyond China, the Soviets can't take that risk of leaving a small force covering Eastern Europe. Afterall, the UK, W Germans, etc are still large enough to keep the Soviets owrried there. And there's at least still US Corps station in W. Germany, not to mention all the Western air forces.
Similarly, considering the date of 1969, I'd dare say that things have settled down in China. Plus a conflict with anyone, even the Soviets, is enough for Chinese to forget about the so-called "cultural revolution" & fight the invader. It'll be on for young & old & probably drag America into the vortex of war regardless what Nixon wants.
DMA said:
American troop strength had peaked at 543,400 in April 1969 but dropped to 505,500 by mid October.
http://www.landscaper.net/offense.htm
First of all, thanks for the websites. As for the question itself:
I think I could also see the Soviets winning this war, and such a conflict crippling Communism's power. After such a costly war, I think it is very likely that the Soviet Union would be sop weakened that continuing the Cold War with the Western powers would seem very inadvisable. If nuclear weapons are used to devastating effect in this war, then I would not be surprised if people around the world take a second look at nukes and think: "Wow, maybe we should end this arms race. Look at what happened in China."
Or maybe not.
I think I could also see the Soviets winning this war, and such a conflict crippling Communism's power. After such a costly war, I think it is very likely that the Soviet Union would be sop weakened that continuing the Cold War with the Western powers would seem very inadvisable. If nuclear weapons are used to devastating effect in this war, then I would not be surprised if people around the world take a second look at nukes and think: "Wow, maybe we should end this arms race. Look at what happened in China."
Or maybe not.