Oil and an independent Scotland

Okay, I'm brainstorming the setting for a soft sci-fiction novel and I need some help with some of the specifics;

(1) If Scotland was to declare independence from the rest of the UK, how much of the North Sea Oil Reserves would it be able to assert control over?

(2) How long before North Sea Oil Reserves run out?

(3) How do you see Scotland ceding from the UK, and what would happen then? Would Wales and Ireland follow suit? What would Scot-British relations be like?

Any other comments?

I would think once the oil runs out that Scotland could make money by exporting that culinary delight haggis.

(1) Depends on how much remains. If there's a lot left, the UK government wouldn't be at all happy about letting them go. As to what they could exert control over, that's a bit cloudier. It'd have to be a diplomatic agreement that ceded them to Scotland.

(3) I'd imagine a large movement for secession arising either out of a genuine grievance or the current tendency to autonomise regions. Wales would try to follow suit, but not Ireland. The Welsh are less than keen on the English, though a sense of financial self-preservation might stop them leaving. The Irish Protestants are rather keen on being ruled from England, though if they view themselves as being betrayed by Westminster, that could change.

We would be subjected to various Mike Meyers jokes of "If it isn't Light sweet Scottish crude its crap!"

There may be as much as 10 billion barrels of oil left in the North Sea oil field. That is great deal of economic power. I don't see the UK or Norway letting that go easily.

Torqumada

Justin Pickard said:

Okay, I'm brainstorming the setting for a soft sci-fiction novel and I need some help with some of the specifics;

(1) If Scotland was to declare independence from the rest of the UK, how much of the North Sea Oil Reserves would it be able to assert control over?

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I believe it has a valid claim to 74% of the established UK reserves; I'm not sure how much they would get though.

(2) How long before North Sea Oil Reserves run out?

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Proven reserves of 4.7 billion barrels.
We extract at a rate of roughly 2.5 million barrels a day.

Of course we likely have more than that.

(3) How do you see Scotland ceding from the UK, and what would happen then? Would Wales and Ireland follow suit?

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Wales is far less inclined towards independence at the present time and they are far less likely to be able to deal with the resultant economic separation from the rest of the UK.

So it is unlikely Wales would follow suit just because Scotland left.

Northern Ireland is somewhat more complex, if it did try to break away blood in the streets would be the likely result.
At the moment they can't do much of everything since they don't have their own parliament and even if they did the Unionists are rather predisposed to maintaining the union.

What would Scot-British relations be like?

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That would depend on how aggressively nationalist the independent Scotland was.

Darkling said:

That would depend on how aggressively nationalist the independent Scotland was.

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Say, marginally more aggressive than the current Scottish National Party (SNP).

Scotland going independant is very very unlikely especially with the current climate of Europe turning into one united nation.
Northern Ireland will never go independant, it would sort of loose its case for not being part of Ireland then.
Wales...Its too much part of England. Maybe in a hundred or two years if the language can establish itself as number 1 in the country.

8-0 Leej, if you've got any Welsh friends, then I salute you as a brave and suicidal man for saying Wales is too much part of England. Don't forget, just because the Southern Welsh don't speak Welsh, doesn't make 'em less disinclined to like the English - our glorious PM Maggie saw to that. She's so beloved in Wales . . .

Actually, the European Union seems like it will increase the ease with which a nation can be independent. Since it'll have a shared economic policy, currency (if Scotland adopts the euro), and a considerable amount of shared foreign policy, the nation's major concern becomes domestic policy, which means it's naturally of benefit to have a smaller area which is "domestic."

Justin Pickard said:

Say, marginally more aggressive than the current Scottish National Party (SNP).

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If we take the moderates in the SNP (such as they are) then relations will probably be fairly trouble free, no doubt some ill will would result from independence (somebody will feel they get the short end of eh stick) but economic realties would force Scotland to remain relatively friendly.

Forum Lurker said:

Actually, the European Union seems like it will increase the ease with which a nation can be independent. Since it'll have a shared economic policy, currency (if Scotland adopts the euro), and a considerable amount of shared foreign policy, the nation's major concern becomes domestic policy, which means it's naturally of benefit to have a smaller area which is "domestic."

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That is true; however the fastest growing part of the Scottish independence movement is the anti EU segment.

From 92-02 those for independence within the EU increased just one percent to 18%.
In that same time those for impendence outside the EU almost doubled form 6% to 11%.

At that rate when Scotland has an overall majority for independence it will be a majority for independence from both the UK and the EU.

MrP said:

8-0 Leej, if you've got any Welsh friends, then I salute you as a brave and suicidal man for saying Wales is too much part of England. Don't forget, just because the Southern Welsh don't speak Welsh, doesn't make 'em less disinclined to like the English - our glorious PM Maggie saw to that. She's so beloved in Wales . . .

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8-0. Qui?
Maggie is hated by everyone in the UK except people around London so the Welsh aren't unique there.
The Welsh do like the English as much as the English like the Welsh. We obviously make jokes about each other but its just like people from the north and south of the US. Its only a few nut cases who want to go independant.

The Scotish independance movement is only gaining speed because the Scotish government is working out so much more efficient then the British one. If the British system could have a bit of repair work done to it then the wish for independance would drop off.

Leej said:

8-0. Qui?
Maggie is hated by everyone in the UK except people around London so the Welsh aren't unique there.
The Welsh do like the English as much as the English like the Welsh. We obviously make jokes about each other but its just like people from the north and south of the US. Its only a few nut cases who want to go independant.

The Scotish independance movement is only gaining speed because the Scotish government is working out so much more efficient then the British one. If the British system could have a bit of repair work done to it then the wish for independance would drop off.

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Sorry, 8-0 should have read
Maggie's not hated by us all, y'know. My Dad's quite keen on her various policies, so I've grown up with something of an air of ambivalence about her. The fact that she's widely disliked just reinforces that for me

I expect my idea of prevailing Welsh attitudes is coloured by the additional fact that I was a student in a Welsh town - and locals aren't renowned for their love of students anywhere! The penchant of certain locals to start speaking Welsh only when students were present made me rather irritable.

If you're saying the Scotch govt's more efficient than the UK one, then I can only trust that their way of running the country differs from their method of building a parliamentary building!

Wasn't the parliament designed et all before the Scots parliament was fully established so it was still under the general UK one?
Scotland is becoming a much better run place then the rest of Britain, it picks and chooses the British policies it likes and makes its own for things which would not be to its advantage. Its ridiculous, on the northern referendum I was upset there was no box to tick if you wanted to join Scotland.

Maggie Thatcher= worst PM since the war. In the contention for worst ever. She destroyed the country and we only starting to recover economicly in the past 5 years or so. The social recovery however is proving far slower.

Based on economic achievement history will probably rank Maggie Thatcher as the best PM between post-WWII and the 21st Century.

As for the need for social recovery, in my experience most of her worst critics were as noble in their statements and proposed policies as their actions would have been vile had they gone into effect. Nothing better than the McGovernites of UK.

As for Scotland I expect things to change soon. To put it bluntly, the idea that England has no say in Scottish affair but Scottish MPs do get a say on the affairs on England(and Wales) is going to end. Since the separate parliament is here to stay, I would anticipate the Scottish members of the Commons to be expelled in the next ten years.

Grimm Reaper said:

Based on economic achievement history will probably rank Maggie Thatcher as the best PM between post-WWII and the 21st Century.

As for the need for social recovery, in my experience most of her worst critics were as noble in their statements and proposed policies as their actions would have been vile had they gone into effect. Nothing better than the McGovernites of UK.

As for Scotland I expect things to change soon. To put it bluntly, the idea that England has no say in Scottish affair but Scottish MPs do get a say on the affairs on England(and Wales) is going to end. Since the separate parliament is here to stay, I would anticipate the Scottish members of the Commons to be expelled in the next ten years.

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Economic achievement!? She managed to barely better the economic performance of the seventies, against a far mopre benign global econmic environment, while failing to match the economic performance of the fifties and sixties.

I'm also rather annoyed at the persistence of the West Lothian question: under the Scotland Act Westminister remains totally free to vote and rule on devolved matters, it simply chooses not to under current circumstances.

The expulsion of Scottish MPs from Westminster would leave Scotland with no control over defense, foreign affairs or economic policy, and very little control over taxation. It would, quite rightly, lead fairly quickly to a decleration of independence.

I thought that most of the North Sea oil belonged to the Orkneys? What does Scotland have to do with it?

wkwillis said:

I thought that most of the North Sea oil belonged to the Orkneys? What does Scotland have to do with it?

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Aren't the Orkneys part of Scotland?

Economic achievement!? She managed to barely better the economic performance of the seventies, against a far mopre benign global econmic environment, while failing to match the economic performance of the fifties and sixties.

Incorrect, she bucked the trend for declining global growth
relatively to other countries Britain does better in the 1980s. in productivity growth it had the second highest of any major economy.

I'm also rather annoyed at the persistence of the West Lothian question: under the Scotland Act Westminister remains totally free to vote and rule on devolved matters, it simply chooses not to under current circumstances.

I';m rather annoyed that anyone on here (sorry if it was not you!) can claim scotland is well governed, it depends on public sector employment, recieved massive transfers and has no better public services, its economy is sclerotic and socialist and its politicians like it that way.

Rant over.

Leej said:

The Scotish independance movement is only gaining speed because the Scotish government is working out so much more efficient then the British one. If the British system could have a bit of repair work done to it then the wish for independance would drop off.

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I presume you've spent the last 10 years living on the far side of the planet Pluto with your fingers wedged into your ears.

The SNP have constantly been losing ground since their dizzying highs in the late 80's and 90's. The Scots aren't stupid. They vote Labour nationally and SNP locally to get the best deal for Scotland as it works out that way. Core support for SNP policies has been declining since the Scots got their Parliament.

And the Scottish Parliament is only working because Westminster is subsidising it. If it stood independent, it would be as effectual as the Welsh Assembly at best.

My rant over.

Now to answer the questions:

1. Scotland would continue to rely on BP and Shell to develop the North Sea oil fields. But without general English/Welsh support in Brussels, the Scots might be forced into sharing the oil more with Europe in return for subsidies. In 1973 when the UK was admitted into the EEC, there was great hope that the British could flood the Common Market with millions of gallons of cheap petrol. Prudently, Governments have kept tight control over North Sea oil saying that it's not up for discussion - ever. In all likelihood the Scots would be allowed to keep all the UK claims to North Sea oil in return for cheap sales for the next 25-30 years. Unless the Scots really developed Wind and Tidal energy in the interim, the period after that date would see Scotland having something of an energy crisis.

2. Estimates vary between 25 and 50 years. There is a lot of natural gas out there but it's harder to tap. Unless there are some richer finds out there.

3. For Scotland to cede from the UK we have to see a Government that treats the Scots really badly. I don't think there's enough of a movement for peaceful seccession that a referendum could deliver on. North Sea Oil and the potential revenues rekindled the independence movement but it never really materialised as an overwhelming threat and is receding into the background.