AH Challenge: European Society Collapses Before 1492

Nerdlinger · Nov 1, 2009

Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to propose a realistic, plausible means by which European society collapses prior to Columbus's 1492 voyage to the New World.

Your proposal should begin with a single POD some time prior to 1492 but after the collapse of the Western Roman Empire in 476. (EDIT: The closer to the 14th century, the better.)

The collapse can involve all or most of geographic Europe but should not extend very far beyond Europe. That is, the civilizations of the Middle East and Far East should survive the demise of the various European states.

The collapse can be caused by any realistic event(s), such as disease, natural disasters, foreign conquest, etc. If your proposal involves the Black Death, you must provide a scientifically plausible explanation for how it could damage Europe significantly more than anywhere else (see here for previous discussion on the matter). No ASBs allowed.

Though not necessary, you get bonus points if your proposal also provides a realistic way to retain the sovereignty of one or more native American civilizations (e.g., Aztecs, Incas, etc.) until the present.

With the permission of those who supply the ideas, I hope to incorporate the best of them, along with some ideas of my own, into an alternate timeline which describes the history of a world not dominated by Christian Europeans.

EDIT: If your proposal is part of a timeline which you have written, are writing, or are intending to write, please say so. Also, please cite your source if the idea is directly from someone else's timeline or published work. I don't want to hijack or rehash anyone else's timeline. Thanks!

Good luck!

Polish Eagle · Nov 1, 2009

From start to finish:

Muslim victory at Tours.

Mongol victory that burns the rest of Europe down.

Black plague eliminates enough members of the "cultured" class (Priests, nobles, kings) that the peasants and soldiers are left to fend for themselves. They form various tribal cultures that, while clearly descended of a common, Christian ancestor, are wildly different, and may even have reverted to paganism. The thing that makes it affect Europe more is that Europeans relied on the "cultured" class.

While Muslims, for example, were better educated as a whole, Europeans were restricted to monks, priests, and a few nobles. If enough of them are wiped out, the rest of society is based on subsistence farming with almost no connection to the outside world. Like after Rome fell. Except this time, we might be looking at a collapse of the single Imperial institution that survived the earlier disaster: The Church. If the Catholic Church hierarchy is irreparably damaged by a plague, Europe will fall after it.

Nerdlinger · Nov 1, 2009

That's a good idea, Polish Eagle, but it's the basis for your Muezzins on the Seine TL, so I can't use it. BTW, your TL is quite neat. I'm interested to see the next update.

~~~~~

While I'm responding to my own thread, I might as well put forth another idea that occurred to me. Suppose there was a period of a few years or so around the time of the Black Death in which the sun put out more UV radiation than normal. My astronomy knowledge is not too good, but this might be due to a higher frequency of sun flares (?). Increased amounts of UV rays mean a greater chance of some getting through the ozone layer. Light-skinned people will suffer worse than others, succumbing to skin cancer. And if the people who suffer most are the lightest-skinned ones on the map here, that's nearly all of Europe, excluding the southernmost parts. With the Black Death already decimating Eurasia, this could be the final straw which causes European society to collapse. I'm no expert, so anyone should feel free to poke holes in this idea and note how ignorant I am in astronomy.

Polish Eagle · Nov 1, 2009

DJC said:
That's a good idea, Polish Eagle, but it's the basis for your Muezzins on the Seine TL, so I can't use it. BTW, your TL is quite neat. I'm interested to see the next update.

~~~~~

While I'm responding to my own thread, I might as well put forth another idea that occurred to me. Suppose there was a period of a few years or so around the time of the Black Death in which the sun put out more UV radiation than normal. My astronomy knowledge is not too good, but this might be due to a higher frequency of sun flares (?). Increased amounts of UV rays mean a greater chance of some getting through the ozone layer. Light-skinned people will suffer worse than others, succumbing to skin cancer. And if the people who suffer most are the lightest-skinned ones on the map here, that's nearly all of Europe, excluding the southernmost parts. With the Black Death already decimating Eurasia, this could be the final straw which causes European society to collapse. I'm no expert, so anyone should feel free to poke holes in this idea and note how ignorant I am in astronomy.

This works well. My own post was meant to be taken as 3 seperate PODs. Your UV theory can be taken as part of an expanded black death. Like I said, to wipe out European civilization, you don't need to kill everyone. Just wipe out the nobility and Church hierarchy. This makes it more plausible than a Years of Rice and Salt scenario.

Joseph K. · Nov 1, 2009

There's no single POD, but aside from invasion, the best bet is that the whole place just descends into anarchy during "the calamitous 14th century", as plague, class warfare, warfare, and other complicated factors become more widespread than they were.

Nerdlinger · Nov 2, 2009

Polish Eagle said:
This works well. My own post was meant to be taken as 3 seperate PODs. Your UV theory can be taken as part of an expanded black death. Like I said, to wipe out European civilization, you don't need to kill everyone. Just wipe out the nobility and Church hierarchy. This makes it more plausible than a Years of Rice and Salt scenario.

Ah, I apologize, I misunderstood. I thought you meant in combination with one another. So why didn't the Mongols raze all of Europe? What stopped them? Also, I wasn't aware how dependent Europeans were on the church and the nobles. I was planning to have the Catholic Church collapse in the TL, but as part of a general collapse of European society. But I see now that its demise could help bring on the collapse rather than just be part of it. I know that the Pope isolated himself from almost everyone to avoid catching the disease, and I'm guessing many of the nobles did something similar. I'm not sure a single POD could take out all the nobles, but do you think if the Pope were to die of the plague, the whole church would come falling down? I might have to have some cardinals killed too.

EDIT: Correcting myself -- apparently Pope Clement the VI didn't isolate himself. From his Wikipedia article:

Clement VI's physicians advised him that surrounding himself with torches would block the plague. However, he soon became skeptical of this recommendation and stayed in Avignon supervising sick care, burials, and the pastoral care of the dying (Duffy, 167). He never contracted the disease.

So it's definitely possible for him to have been infected and died. In OTL, he died in 1352, toward the end of the Black Death, after the plague already had passed through Avignon, and obviously the church didn't collapse. But if he were to die in 1348 or '49 of the plague itself, maybe that would do more damage to the church. I might have to take out a few cardinals or something, though. Does this make sense?

~~~~~

I'm still asking anyone knowledgeable in astronomy, meteorology, or medical science to please give their feedback on how scientifically plausible the increased UV radiation idea is. Thanks in advance.

Nugax · Nov 2, 2009

A volcano in Greenland causes a massive and constant flow of freshwater into the Greenland Sea, shutting off the North Atlantic Drift's Thermohaline circulation at some point in the 1300 and lasts at least a few centuries. Europe is plunged from the Medieval Warm Period into a climate like North East Canada and kicking off a societal collapse and mass chaos as agricultural production drops to a quarter of what it was.

Europe rebuilds itself on a more modest scale for a few centuries, eventually clawing back to its 1300 development level sometime in the 1800s, giving Asia a few centuries to conquer the world.

Nerdlinger · Nov 2, 2009

Nugax said:
A volcano in Greenland causes a massive and constant flow of freshwater into the Greenland Sea, shutting off the North Atlantic Drift's Thermohaline circulation at some point in the 1300 and lasts at least a few centuries. Europe is plunged from the Medieval Warm Period into a climate like North East Canada and kicking off a societal collapse and mass chaos as agricultural production drops to a quarter of what it was.

Europe rebuilds itself on a more modest scale for a few centuries, eventually clawing back to its 1300 development level sometime in the 1800s, giving Asia a few centuries to conquer the world.

I like that idea a lot; trouble is, there are no volcanoes in Greenland. There are some in Iceland, but I don't know if there's enough ice on Iceland to melt to screw up the North Atlantic current.

EDIT: Perhaps a similar effect could be achieved by an extraterrestrial impact in Greenland. Hell, I suppose I could have an impact in Europe itself, but one big enough to screw up all of Europe would probably screw up most of the world. What do you think?

The Doctor · Nov 2, 2009

An asteriod hits Europe right before Columbus leaves Sevilla. The size of which devestates Europe but isnt so large that it has long lasting effects outside Europe.

Hows that?

Nerdlinger · Nov 2, 2009

The Doctor said:
An asteriod hits Europe right before Columbus leaves Sevilla. The size of which devestates Europe but isnt so large that it has long lasting effects outside Europe.
Hows that?

That's the problem with asteroid/comet impacts. If one is big enough to devastate Europe, it's going to kick up enough dust to cause global nuclear-type winter, which cripples other societies as well, especially agricultural ones. A small one which melts some ice in Greenland might be more suitable for the purpose, though I'm hazy on the technical details of this.

The Doctor · Nov 2, 2009

Greenland melt would change society in the middle east. Also I was being funny on my post.

Now back to the middle east, I believe it would raise sea level there and make it more wet.

Nerdlinger · Nov 2, 2009

The Doctor said:
Greenland melt would change society in the middle east. Also I was being funny on my post. Now back to the middle east, I believe it would raise sea level there and make it more wet.

That does raise an interesting question -- how much melt would be needed to screw up the North Atlantic Current, and how much would this melt raise sea level?

Nugax · Nov 2, 2009

A Grrenland melt might not necessarily raise sea levels by as much as a foot before cutting the gulf stream, the important bit is the constant introduction of freshwater into the system. This is also why a meteorite wouldn't help as you want a constant slow release over a few centuries (otherwise it'd just be a few bad winters in Europe).

You could handwave in a Magma Plume under Greenland (similar to the source of Yellowstone and Tibisti) since no knows for sure how they turn up, it doesn't even have to break the surface to get the effect we want.

Ofaloaf · Nov 2, 2009

What do you mean by "European Society Collapses"?

No centralized government? Difficult to pull off, since any vaccuum will be quickly filled by warlords and council-run cities, which isn't much different from how the Medieval Ages were anyways.

Running around half-naked like cannibalistic savages? Again, difficult. A return to a nomadic lifestyle would be very difficult to pull off, and metalworking knowledge is hard to lose (but not impossible) once it's gained.

tbrookside · Nov 2, 2009

Is the goal here to have European society completely collapse, or to have a POD that keeps it from advancing technically, agriculturally, demographically, etc., to a point where it is able to readily overwhelm the aboriginal cultures of the New World?

Because I'm trying to come up with a POD that isn't already mentioned or in use, and the level of destruction that is required for the former is considerably greater than that required for the latter.

Nerdlinger · Nov 2, 2009

tbrookside said:
Is the goal here to have European society completely collapse, or to have a POD that keeps it from advancing technically, agriculturally, demographically, etc., to a point where it is able to readily overwhelm the aboriginal cultures of the New World?

Because I'm trying to come up with a POD that isn't already mentioned or in use, and the level of destruction that is required for the former is considerably greater than that required for the latter.

The collapse does not need to be total, but enough damage has to be done to prevent Europeans from dominating the world. So, to be more specific, at least as bad as the latter.

~~~~~

For the hell of it, here's a far-fetched idea which combines parts of previous ones but swings dangerously close to ASB-land: when the cardinals gather at the papal conclave to elect the new Pope in 1352 after the death of Clement VI, a small asteroid hits Avignon, destroying the Palais des Papes and wiping out the church hierarchy. It could even be moved back if Clement VI dies of the plague in 1348 or so, but this would involve 2 PODs and would be even less realistic.

Forgive my ignorance of Catholic traditions, but when a Pope dies, is there some sort of open-casket ceremony in which the cardinals pay their respects? If the Pope still has some plague fleas on him, some of the cardinals could pick them up at the funeral.

tbrookside · Nov 2, 2009

DJC said:
The collapse does not need to be total, but enough damage has to be done to prevent Europeans from dominating the world. So, to be more specific, at least as bad as the latter.

The POD doesn't even need to be destructive, really - it just has to retard development to keep Europe roughly on a par with the other major civilizations.

From the perspective of the people involved, even a "good" POD could accomplish that.

For example:

Charlemagne's son, Louis the Pious, decides to break with Frankish tradition, and declares that his estates will be passed on to only a single son instead of being divided. Lothair I as a result spends his time fighting Vikings and Moors instead of his brothers. The Carolingian Empire survives intact for several generations longer than was historically the case - maybe even a couple of centuries, in some form or another. This has the following indirect impacts:

1. The Viking invasions are blunted by the existence of a strong mainland state.
2. The Moslem occupation of Spain is much more brief.
3. No Norman sub-state is ever set up in France.
4. England is never unified under a Norman conqueror. No Norman state ever conquers south Italy or Sicily.
5. Spain never serves as a conduit for Greek learning to be retransmitted to Europe via the Moslem states.
6. The Carolingian Empire and its successor states are much more land-focused, in both military and trade terms, because they are never overwhelmed by seaborne Norsemen.
7. The presence of a stronger Imperial state in the west prevents the rise of the "strong papacy", and the relationship between Church and State in the west comes to resemble that of Byzantium, with emperors and kings sharing control of the church with the Pope.
8. The Byzantine Empire gets more support from the Carolingians than was historically the case and enters the late Middle Ages in a stronger strategic position than TTL. Constantinople does not fall to the Turks in 1453, and because Byzantium's scholars never flee to the West, the impact of the Renaissance is blunted. [Combined with 5, above.]

These all result in a much more conservative, inward-looking, land-focused, unsophisticated and un-renaissanced Europe by 1492. Europe never "falls" or is destroyed, but is simply a couple of centuries behind where it was in TTL in areas like seafaring and navigation, weapons technology, and in its re-adoption of a culture of letters. This means that Europe does not achieve enough of a position of superiority to become expansive while its neighbors are still weak - it stays in rough parity with the Moslem, Indian, and Chinese civilizations, and does not develop the aggressive seafaring states that led through the Age of Discovery [England, Portugal and Spain in particular are poorer and less aggressive than in the TTL, and are probably ruled by continental states or empires instead of being independent and centralized states.] The New World might not even be discovered by 1700, let alone conquered.

Maur · Nov 3, 2009

DJC said:
That's the problem with asteroid/comet impacts. If one is big enough to devastate Europe, it's going to kick up enough dust to cause global nuclear-type winter, which cripples other societies as well, especially agricultural ones. A small one which melts some ice in Greenland might be more suitable for the purpose, though I'm hazy on the technical details of this.

I'm not sure if Greenland impact would work that way. Given your determination on avoiding ASBs, you'd really have to do a lot of research, both about impact effect, and Golfstrom/climate effects.

That said, it's interesting idea.

EDIT/ Ah, already answered.

On a side note, we might be looking wrong way. Instead of hard factors, why not concentrate on some soft, cultural one?

EDIT/ Yeah, one like tbrookside mentions.

remulean · Nov 3, 2009

sacrificial religion

here's one idea i haven't seen so far, what about a new religion rising up in wake of the black death. this religion is heavily paganized in whatever way you want, but includes some hefty human sacrifice a la the aztecs.
while obviously not enough to bring down europe the ensuing religious war will rage over europe. the new pagans will sacrifice christians en masse whenever they get the chance, hunting down the clergy, killing off many or most of the "cultured" individuals. this in conjecture with something else like climate change or a new plaque or something like that should be enough.

Nerdlinger · Nov 3, 2009

tbrookside said:
The POD doesn't even need to be destructive, really - it just has to retard development to keep Europe roughly on a par with the other major civilizations.

From the perspective of the people involved, even a "good" POD could accomplish that.

For example:

Charlemagne's son, Louis the Pious, decides to break with Frankish tradition, and declares that his estates will be passed on to only a single son instead of being divided. Lothair I as a result spends his time fighting Vikings and Moors instead of his brothers. The Carolingian Empire survives intact for several generations longer than was historically the case - maybe even a couple of centuries, in some form or another. This has the following indirect impacts:

1. The Viking invasions are blunted by the existence of a strong mainland state.
2. The Moslem occupation of Spain is much more brief.
3. No Norman sub-state is ever set up in France.
4. England is never unified under a Norman conqueror. No Norman state ever conquers south Italy or Sicily.
5. Spain never serves as a conduit for Greek learning to be retransmitted to Europe via the Moslem states.
6. The Carolingian Empire and its successor states are much more land-focused, in both military and trade terms, because they are never overwhelmed by seaborne Norsemen.
7. The presence of a stronger Imperial state in the west prevents the rise of the "strong papacy", and the relationship between Church and State in the west comes to resemble that of Byzantium, with emperors and kings sharing control of the church with the Pope.
8. The Byzantine Empire gets more support from the Carolingians than was historically the case and enters the late Middle Ages in a stronger strategic position than TTL. Constantinople does not fall to the Turks in 1453, and because Byzantium's scholars never flee to the West, the impact of the Renaissance is blunted. [Combined with 5, above.]

These all result in a much more conservative, inward-looking, land-focused, unsophisticated and un-renaissanced Europe by 1492. Europe never "falls" or is destroyed, but is simply a couple of centuries behind where it was in TTL in areas like seafaring and navigation, weapons technology, and in its re-adoption of a culture of letters. This means that Europe does not achieve enough of a position of superiority to become expansive while its neighbors are still weak - it stays in rough parity with the Moslem, Indian, and Chinese civilizations, and does not develop the aggressive seafaring states that led through the Age of Discovery [England, Portugal and Spain in particular are poorer and less aggressive than in the TTL, and are probably ruled by continental states or empires instead of being independent and centralized states.] The New World might not even be discovered by 1700, let alone conquered.

Thank you! This is a very fascinating (and well-researched, I might add) idea. Did you come up with it just now? It doesn't wreck Europe like I had originally planned, but I do like the subtleness of it. It's definitely going to the top of pile. My general knowledge in medieval European history is foggy at best, so I've done a little hasty research so I can respond in a semi-intelligent fashion.

If Louis the Pious decides on Lothair as his sole heir, would the other brothers feel cheated and fight amongst themselves and with Lothair anyway?

If I understand correctly, in OTL, the knowledge of the ancient Greeks was passed on to the Romans and to the Muslims of the Middle East. Both expanded upon this knowledge base with their own research, but the Romans' knowledge was mostly lost with the collapse of their empire, with the exception of what the Byzantines retained. The Muslims' knowledge was transmitted back to Europe via the long Moorish presence in Spain. When the Ottomans overran the Byzantines, the knowledge they brought with them when they relocated westward into Europe (along with the Muslims' knowledge) helped spur on the Renaissance. Is this correct?

By the rise of the strong papacy, are you referring to the formation of HRE in the wake of the division and eventual collapse of Charlemagne's empire? So in OTL, the HRE allowed the Pope to have more power over the church, which in turn led to bad relations between the western and eastern Catholic churches. In the ATL, if the Pope has less power, the Byzantines are treated better by the west, allowing them to better withstand invasion by the Turks. Do I have this right?

I do see how all this would result in a less advanced Europe, giving the other Old World civilizations a chance to catch up and giving the New World civilizations at least a fighting chance to remain independent. If you think about it, it seems Europe essentially came to dominate the world through a few twists of fate that could have gone one way or the other.