For a couple years now, I've been trying to devise a reasonable ATL stemming from a POD in which the Black Death is even deadlier than it is in OTL. (Yes, I know this has been done before, but I didn't know that when I first came up with the idea sometime back in 2007.) My attempts to develop this timeline actually led to my interest in alternate history, so I consider it to be my "baby" of sorts. Unfortunately, history is not my strong suit, so I'm hoping that the kind, more knowledgeable folks on this discussion board could review the basic outline I have for the timeline and check it for plausibility and accuracy. I would be most appreciative of any input.
The overarching theme for my proposed ATL is: What would the world be like if the Black Death wiped out most of the population of Europe? My intended POD is during the year 1347, when a new mutation spreads throughout the Yersinia pestis population which is on its way to infiltrate southern Europe. The mutation increases the prevalence of the pneumonic and septicemic forms of the plague compared to that of the bubonic form. This enhances the communicability and virulence of the disease by roughly threefold, resulting in the extermination of about 90-95% of the population of Europe.
With Europe almost wholly depopulated, the Ottoman Turks, the Mamluk Arabs, and the Timurids vie for control of the subcontinent, with the Turks eventually prevailing and taking control of almost all of Europe. Islam becomes the dominant religion of the West, as the Catholic Church collapses in the wake of the plague. Christianity exists only in a small minority of the European population from then on. The Renaissance and (later) the Industrial Revolution still take place, although they are focused primarily in the Middle East and China and delayed by about 50-100 years.
Overseas colonization is also set back without the exploits of European conquistadors. This delays the "discovery" of the New World by the Old, giving the Mexicans (Aztecs) and Inkas time to consolidate their hold on the American continents. The Mexicans serve as the progressive catalysts for the indigenous American population. As their influence spreads northward, Mexican-style farming and city-building becomes popular throughout much of North America. City living increases disease resistance, mitigating the impact of foreign germs brought by explorers from the Old World.
The Chinese make contact with the Americas via the Pacific in the late 1500s or early 1600s, around the same time that the Arabs and Turks do the same on the Atlantic side. The Mexicans adopt Old World technology (including metalworking and firearms), allowing them and their North American allies to better defend themselves from Chinese and Muslim would-be colonists. The Mexican Empire (capital: Tenochtitlan) owns Central America and southern North America, and the Caribbean Sea is a Mexican lake. The Inka Empire (capital: Qusqu), though rivals with the Mexicans, adopt their strategy and end up controlling almost the entire South American continent. The Chinese, Turks, and Arabs do establish coastal colonies in the New World, but do not penetrate inland as far as in OTL.
China winds up dominating eastern and southeastern Asia, Siberia, and the Pacific, resulting in an empire larger than even that of the Mongols. In eastern Asia, only the Japanese (capital: Kyoto) manage to avoid conquest by the Chinese, despite numerous attempted invasions. A long, drawn-out civil war in the 1900s between China and rebellious Tibetan guerrillas results in the eventual defeat of the Tibetans. During the 19th and 20th centuries, China starts to become more liberal and democratic, leading to the formation of the Republic of China and the independence of several colonies in southeast Asia and Australia. The majority of Chinese are of the peaceful Buddhist faith (although, as in Turkey, progressive liberal reforms steadily increase the prevalence of secularism), but China is beset with racism toward its non-Han citizens.
Democratization also occurs in Turkey, which has rivaled the Chinese for centuries in terms of economic and military power. By the 21st century, the Turkish Sultanate (capital: Istanbul) holds Anatolia and almost all of Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals, the Arab Sultanate (capital: Cairo) controls the Arabian Peninsula and northern Africa, the Iranian Empire (capital: Samarqand; descendant of the Timurid Empire) controls much of southern and central Asia, the mainly Hindu Bharat Republic (capital: Madurai; descendant of the Vijayanagara Empire) holds southern India, the Kingdom of Delhi (capital: Delhi) has northern India, and the Republic of China covers OTL China, Siberia, Alaska, Korea, Taiwan, parts of southeast Asia, and most of the Pacific. Sub-Saharan Africa is largely peaceful and is dominated by four major nations: the Ethiopian Empire, the Songhai Empire, the Kingdom of Kongo, and the Kingdom of Zimbabwe.
A devastating attack in Istanbul by fundamentalist Christian terrorists in the early 21st century results in a severe, worldwide economic depression. In the wake of the depression, revolutionaries take over the corrupt Arab Sultanate, establishing the Arab Caliphate, an authoritarian Sunni socialist state. With the sultan dead and former caliph forced to abdicate, the rebel leader would combine the positions and appoint himself the new caliph. In the Iranian Empire, the response to the crisis is less violent. Discontent is spreading due to the depression and over the controversial new Cairo caliph. A dissident Shia nationalist organization led by a charismatic man claiming to be an Imam would soon take control of Iran, setting up an dictatorship to supplant the old Sunni regime and declaring the Cairo caliph illegitimate. The Turkish Sultanate, though primarily Sunni, grows increasingly secular, in part due to continual scientific and social progress and in part because many Turks are disillusioned by the parody of a valid religious leader in Cairo.
The Turks and Arabs have historically been bitter enemies, competing for control of the Middle East and Mediterranean in numerous wars over the centuries. By the early to mid-21st century, though, their animosity for each other would wane as a common enemy emerges in Iran. The Imam rants to the Iranian public about the blasphemous Sunni socialists and Turkish secularists. He also directs his wrath toward the Hindus of India, who the Muslims of southern Asia have long tried to subjugate. The Imam's intense prejudice toward Hinduism and Hindus as a people becomes apparent, forcing many so-called "heathens" to flee Iran to escape persecution. He blames the industrious Hindus for causing the depression. In the 2030s, Iran would anger the Turks and Arabs by forcibly annexing the western coast of the Kingdom of Delhi, along the Arabian Sea. When, shortly afterward, the Iranian army uses this new territory to invade Bharat, the Turks and Arabs, allies of Bharat, declare war on Iran.
The Mexican Empire, allied with Iran, attacks and captures the Chinese colony of Hawaii, initiating a separate war over control of the Pacific. Less progressive than their northern neighbors, the strength of the Inka Empire has deteriorated over the years, allowing the Mexican army to spread southward and claim the northern part of the Inka Empire as the puppet state of South Mexico. The North Mexican Confederation, composed of many allied North American indigenous tribes, is displeased at Mexico's imperialistic attitude but does not wish to anger its strongest ally. Thus, the NMC remains adamantly neutral in the war. A long global conflict ensues, drenching the world in blood.
So what does everybody think? I'm especially concerned about the plausibility of how the plague became more deadly and how the native Americans could have successfully warded off Old World invaders. Thanks in advance for your help.
EDIT: I should note that even though it's the early 21st century, the belligerent nations are going into the war with technology roughly equivalent to that of WWI in OTL. They are about a century behind us. And in case I couldn't make it more obvious, the war is (for the most part) analogous to WWII.
The overarching theme for my proposed ATL is: What would the world be like if the Black Death wiped out most of the population of Europe? My intended POD is during the year 1347, when a new mutation spreads throughout the Yersinia pestis population which is on its way to infiltrate southern Europe. The mutation increases the prevalence of the pneumonic and septicemic forms of the plague compared to that of the bubonic form. This enhances the communicability and virulence of the disease by roughly threefold, resulting in the extermination of about 90-95% of the population of Europe.
With Europe almost wholly depopulated, the Ottoman Turks, the Mamluk Arabs, and the Timurids vie for control of the subcontinent, with the Turks eventually prevailing and taking control of almost all of Europe. Islam becomes the dominant religion of the West, as the Catholic Church collapses in the wake of the plague. Christianity exists only in a small minority of the European population from then on. The Renaissance and (later) the Industrial Revolution still take place, although they are focused primarily in the Middle East and China and delayed by about 50-100 years.
Overseas colonization is also set back without the exploits of European conquistadors. This delays the "discovery" of the New World by the Old, giving the Mexicans (Aztecs) and Inkas time to consolidate their hold on the American continents. The Mexicans serve as the progressive catalysts for the indigenous American population. As their influence spreads northward, Mexican-style farming and city-building becomes popular throughout much of North America. City living increases disease resistance, mitigating the impact of foreign germs brought by explorers from the Old World.
The Chinese make contact with the Americas via the Pacific in the late 1500s or early 1600s, around the same time that the Arabs and Turks do the same on the Atlantic side. The Mexicans adopt Old World technology (including metalworking and firearms), allowing them and their North American allies to better defend themselves from Chinese and Muslim would-be colonists. The Mexican Empire (capital: Tenochtitlan) owns Central America and southern North America, and the Caribbean Sea is a Mexican lake. The Inka Empire (capital: Qusqu), though rivals with the Mexicans, adopt their strategy and end up controlling almost the entire South American continent. The Chinese, Turks, and Arabs do establish coastal colonies in the New World, but do not penetrate inland as far as in OTL.
China winds up dominating eastern and southeastern Asia, Siberia, and the Pacific, resulting in an empire larger than even that of the Mongols. In eastern Asia, only the Japanese (capital: Kyoto) manage to avoid conquest by the Chinese, despite numerous attempted invasions. A long, drawn-out civil war in the 1900s between China and rebellious Tibetan guerrillas results in the eventual defeat of the Tibetans. During the 19th and 20th centuries, China starts to become more liberal and democratic, leading to the formation of the Republic of China and the independence of several colonies in southeast Asia and Australia. The majority of Chinese are of the peaceful Buddhist faith (although, as in Turkey, progressive liberal reforms steadily increase the prevalence of secularism), but China is beset with racism toward its non-Han citizens.
Democratization also occurs in Turkey, which has rivaled the Chinese for centuries in terms of economic and military power. By the 21st century, the Turkish Sultanate (capital: Istanbul) holds Anatolia and almost all of Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals, the Arab Sultanate (capital: Cairo) controls the Arabian Peninsula and northern Africa, the Iranian Empire (capital: Samarqand; descendant of the Timurid Empire) controls much of southern and central Asia, the mainly Hindu Bharat Republic (capital: Madurai; descendant of the Vijayanagara Empire) holds southern India, the Kingdom of Delhi (capital: Delhi) has northern India, and the Republic of China covers OTL China, Siberia, Alaska, Korea, Taiwan, parts of southeast Asia, and most of the Pacific. Sub-Saharan Africa is largely peaceful and is dominated by four major nations: the Ethiopian Empire, the Songhai Empire, the Kingdom of Kongo, and the Kingdom of Zimbabwe.
A devastating attack in Istanbul by fundamentalist Christian terrorists in the early 21st century results in a severe, worldwide economic depression. In the wake of the depression, revolutionaries take over the corrupt Arab Sultanate, establishing the Arab Caliphate, an authoritarian Sunni socialist state. With the sultan dead and former caliph forced to abdicate, the rebel leader would combine the positions and appoint himself the new caliph. In the Iranian Empire, the response to the crisis is less violent. Discontent is spreading due to the depression and over the controversial new Cairo caliph. A dissident Shia nationalist organization led by a charismatic man claiming to be an Imam would soon take control of Iran, setting up an dictatorship to supplant the old Sunni regime and declaring the Cairo caliph illegitimate. The Turkish Sultanate, though primarily Sunni, grows increasingly secular, in part due to continual scientific and social progress and in part because many Turks are disillusioned by the parody of a valid religious leader in Cairo.
The Turks and Arabs have historically been bitter enemies, competing for control of the Middle East and Mediterranean in numerous wars over the centuries. By the early to mid-21st century, though, their animosity for each other would wane as a common enemy emerges in Iran. The Imam rants to the Iranian public about the blasphemous Sunni socialists and Turkish secularists. He also directs his wrath toward the Hindus of India, who the Muslims of southern Asia have long tried to subjugate. The Imam's intense prejudice toward Hinduism and Hindus as a people becomes apparent, forcing many so-called "heathens" to flee Iran to escape persecution. He blames the industrious Hindus for causing the depression. In the 2030s, Iran would anger the Turks and Arabs by forcibly annexing the western coast of the Kingdom of Delhi, along the Arabian Sea. When, shortly afterward, the Iranian army uses this new territory to invade Bharat, the Turks and Arabs, allies of Bharat, declare war on Iran.
The Mexican Empire, allied with Iran, attacks and captures the Chinese colony of Hawaii, initiating a separate war over control of the Pacific. Less progressive than their northern neighbors, the strength of the Inka Empire has deteriorated over the years, allowing the Mexican army to spread southward and claim the northern part of the Inka Empire as the puppet state of South Mexico. The North Mexican Confederation, composed of many allied North American indigenous tribes, is displeased at Mexico's imperialistic attitude but does not wish to anger its strongest ally. Thus, the NMC remains adamantly neutral in the war. A long global conflict ensues, drenching the world in blood.
So what does everybody think? I'm especially concerned about the plausibility of how the plague became more deadly and how the native Americans could have successfully warded off Old World invaders. Thanks in advance for your help.
EDIT: I should note that even though it's the early 21st century, the belligerent nations are going into the war with technology roughly equivalent to that of WWI in OTL. They are about a century behind us. And in case I couldn't make it more obvious, the war is (for the most part) analogous to WWII.
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