The Munich Coup - my latest TL

This is my latest timeline. I will reveal no details. Enjoy.



The Munich Coup



Chapter I: Coup, the German-Polish War the Third Balkan War, and the Threat from the East, 1938-1942


It was 1938 and German dictator Adolf Hitler had once again crashed Europe into a diplomatic crisis, this time over the Czech region known as the Sudetenland. National Socialism was still a very recent phenomenon and it would be a very short-lived one. In 1918, the German Empire had been defeated and the Treaty of Versailles had been forced upon the cast down giant. The army was limited to a mere 100.000 men, no tanks and no heavy artillery, a mere police force to a country that had once been the most powerful nation of Europe. It was an army barely worth speaking of and German military leaders predicted that even a war against Poland or Czechoslovakia was unwinnable. A navy of a mere six battleships of some 10.000 tons, no air force and 132 billion German marks in war reparations completed the picture along with territorial loss which crippled Germany, something the French leader Clemenceau ‘le Tigre’ hoped would be permanent. While the Entente powers revelled in their victory, Germany sank into chaos. Germany was now a republic as the Hohenzollern dynasty had been deposed and communist revolution was in the air, but the gutted army and the Freikorps militias put them down in 1919 and executed the leaders of the revolution. What followed was a period wracked with internal instability which was shown by the fact that in the period 1918-1933, Germany had twenty governments. Coup, communist revolution and foreign enforcement of war reparations (such as the occupation of the Ruhr Area) loomed. Hyperinflation, a weak economy and millions of poor unemployed led to an explosive situation.

In this situation, a veteran Austrian corporal from the Great War known as Adolf Hitler began his journey to total power. In 1919, he joined the DAP or German Workers Party which he renamed the National Socialist German Workers Party or NSDAP. He quickly removed its founder Anton Drexler from power. He turned out to be a great speaker and quickly rose through the ranks of the Nazi party as it was known by its opponents. It quickly became one of the dominant parties in its home region of Bavaria. In 1923 a coup was launched by him, but it failed and Hitler was imprisoned although he was released only two years later only to take power democratically in 1933 after the dubious burning of the Reichstag. He immediately began his program to restore Germany to its former glory to prepare for things that would remain in his fantasy world. In 1935, he reintroduced conscription to rapidly expand the German army and he remilitarized the Rhineland in 1936 without opposition which perhaps encouraged him to go further. In the Anschluss in 1938 he annexed Austria after his 1934 attempt had failed due to opposition from the other fascist dictator in Europe: Mussolini. By 1938, times had changed and after the Second Italo-Abyssinian War, France and Britain were no longer friends with Italy. His ultimate goal being a Greater Germany, he set his sights on the German-speaking Sudetenland in 1938 which was then part of Czechoslovakia, a new state created out of the former Austro-Hungarian Empire which had collapsed in 1918. Czechoslovakia was hemmed in after the Anschluss, making it Hitler’s next target, especially with its demographics (the Sudetenland was inhabited by Czech Germans).

The great powers called for a conference which was held in Munich and present were Adolf Hitler, Neville Chamberlain, Édouard Daladier and Benito Mussolini. Notably missing were Czechoslovakian president Edvard Benes and Soviet leader Joseph Stalin who was upset about not being invited and the USSR not being recognised as a great power. Negotiations commenced in September 1938 and Neville Chamberlain was willing to appease the Germans to avoid war. France had an alliance with Czechoslovakia and was less enthusiastic, but did follow the British. On September 29th, Chamberlain requested a one day delay from Hitler to confer with his colleagues in London. Hitler agreed, but was not too happy with this as he felt that he had been forced to act like a bourgeois politician. The impatient dictator was furious in fact and perhaps he wanted a war to reach his goals and test German military strength. He ordered the German army to execute Fall Grün, the planned invasion of Czechoslovakia. This was the signal for the anti-Hitler elements to move against him and old coup plans were put into action. The border defences in the Sudetenland were very potent, similar to France´s Maginot line if although not as strong. They would undoubtedly cause the German army severe losses although victory was not in doubt. The problem was, however, that it would trigger the alliance with France and in 1938, Germany could not defeat France, let alone Britain as well. German military leaders knew this and many conservative political leaders merely wanted to restore 1914 borders and take the Sudetenland if possible. They refused to go to war for Hitler´s mad schemes and risk the re-emergence of Germany as a great power which was only just beginning.

In the night from September 29th to September 30th, the plotters began to move. General Ludwig Beck Chief of Staff of the Oberkommando des Heeres (the army High Command), ordered his troops to arrest the Nazi leadership and announced a state of martial law. Himmler ordered his SS units to start a countercoup immediately and attempted to contact Hitler whose whereabouts were unknown for the first few hours of September 30th. SS and SA units fought the army, but the SA largely consisted of veterans and soon deserted en masse. The Wehrmacht outnumbered the SS by far and the Waffen SS was soon surrounded in several street battles and defeated. Himmler was arrested as was Heydrich. Other top Nazi leaders such as Hess, Bormann, Nebe, Heydrich and Hitler himself were arrested while Goering fled to Sweden. Beck became president while DNVP leader Carl Goerdeler became Chancellor and SPD member Wilhelm Leuschner Vice-Chancellor. They declared that Hitler had been deposed for attempting to go to war with France, Britain and Czechoslovakia and would be tried for treason while in reality he had already been shot. The coup d’état was complete.

While this took place, Daladier, Mussolini and Chamberlain had all been sleeping and police officers woke them and quickly escorted them to a safer location while the army cleaned up the last remnants of the SS and executed the Nazi leaders, barring Goering who had fled to Sweden, by firing squad. This was a very unwelcome surprise as the old Prussian aristocracy, the Junkers, were back, an enemy that France and Britain had vanquished just shy of twenty years before. The new legal government was, however, recognised by France, Britain and Italy. Mussolini made a proposal that was accepted. On October 3rd 1938, Prague was informed they could accept the annexation or fight it alone. Czechoslovakia acquiesced and German forces moved into the Sudetenland and occupied it in the next few days and the Czechoslovakians let them as they knew that they couldn’t defeat Germany by themselves.

For Germany, this was a new beginning and the government began reorganizing the country and government. Beck issued a statement in which elections were announced while he set up the framework for a new government. He was a military officer and because the army had executed the coup and because Beck was a general, the government was effectively a military junta although that would not be accepted for long which Beck understood. The army was a bulwark of conservatism and many high ranking officers were aristocrats of the landed elite, Junkers, and staunch monarchists who wanted a conservative, nationalist regime to rearm Germany and restore Germany’s position as a dominant power in Europe and re-establish 1914 borders with Poland. The opposition, mostly the SPD, would rather see a true parliamentary democracy although this summoned bad memories from the era of the Weimar Republic.

A compromise settlement was reached with a system called ‘guided democracy’. The military would tolerate a parliamentary democracy with a bicameral parliament, but demanded the reinstating of the monarchy and guarantees for a to be determined military budget and the army would remain influential. Mostly the SPD resisted, but in the end they gave in which created the new issue of who was to become Emperor. A regency council was created with several prominent and notable nationalist, conservative leader as members and general Beck at the head. Emperor Wilhelm II was still alive at this point, but he was dismissed as unacceptable as he was disgraced because of his association with the end of the war and his flight to the Netherlands. His son, Wilhelm, was considered to be a reactionary and unacceptable to the reconstituted SPD. Wilhelm II’s grandson, the prince of Prussia, also named Wilhelm, had entered a morganatic marriage and had renounced his right to the throne, leaving his younger brother. He was a business man and quite an able administrator even though he had not pursued a military career. He had disassociated himself with the Nazis and during his time in Detroit and the rest of the US, he had acquainted President Roosevelt. He was deemed appropriate and he accepted the throne. On January 5th 1939, he was crowned Emperor Ludwig Ferdinand I of Germany and head of state of the interim government in a ceremony in the Aachen Cathedral where the medieval kings of Germany had been crowned. After an interregnum of more than twenty years, the German Empire had been restored although keen observers noticed a difference. Instead of becoming German Emperor like his predecessors, Ludwig Ferdinand was Emperor of Germany as he now controlled all traditional lands of the Holy Roman Empire except for Bohemia-Moravia and Germany was subsequently known as the Empire of Germany even if the alternative title of German Empire remained in use in many circles and the black, white and red was restored as the German flag. The interim government wrote down a new constitution (which emphasized the rights of the military) and legalized the liberal, social-democrat, catholic and nationalist-conservative parties while the Nazis and communists were banned by a decree by Beck. Trade unions were also once again legalized and anti-Jewish legislation was abolished and the Länder as they were in the German Empire were restored with small adjustments in Thuringia.

Ludwig Ferdinand also made overtures to Prague for an alliance and succeeded after some nifty negotiating, promising that the new borders of Czechoslovakia were sacrosanct and that Germany would assist against any Hungarian or Polish incursions. Hungary had already laid claim to Ruthenia while Poland had already made several minor irredentist claims. At this point, Hácha feared the opportunistic Hungarians and Poles more than the new non-Nazi regime in Berlin and accepted. Hungary, as a result, floated more into Rome´s sphere of influence. As Czechoslovakia was clearly the weaker partner of the two, the country quite quickly became a puppet state. On the other hand, the young Emperor did not renounce claims on Poland as many nationalist leaders were lobbying for the restoration of 1914 borders with their eastern neighbour. The monarchist regime organized elections in February 1939 in which a DNVP-Zentrumpartei coalition emerged with Kuno Graf von Westarp as the new chancellor.

Economically, Germany was not doing well. Under the guidance of Hjalmar Schacht, Hitler had rapidly rearmed Germany at the cost of everything else, leading to Germany heading toward bankruptcy as Germany had a lot of outstanding loans. The new government cut in the military budget extensively and began a series of cutbacks and recovery programs, programs that were not always liked but that Ludwig Ferdinand knew to be necessary and so he approved of them. This would slow down rearmament, resulting in Germany being a year behind in 1940 compared to what it would have been under Hitler. The remaining Nazi members were granted amnesty if they co-operated. Basically, the new regime needed the bureaucracy the Nazis had built to run Germany.

In Germany´s foreign policy, Berlin sought detente with Paris and London and had already abstained from invading Czechoslovakia and even announced Hitler´s plans to do so which caused quite a shock. The alliance between Prague and Berlin to protect the Czechs from further incursions could count on some measure of goodwill in London although the French remained sceptical or lukewarm at best although the denouncing of the Nazi regime led to a thaw. France looked upon the new Prussian government with suspicion since they would no doubt try to reclaim Alsace-Lorraine, but Ludwig Ferdinand declined to take a side on this matter. He wanted to remain on Paris´ good side for his own reasons.

With the new system of government and the most pressing matters taken care of, Germany set its sights towards its eastern borders where there were many unsettled irredentist claims and the nationalists were already sharpening their blades as they expected a war. Ludwig Ferdinand and the cooler heads in his cabinet and the Reichstag preferred negotiations and had a minimum program of Danzig, a border revision of Upper Silesia and the Polish Corridor and a maximum program of 1914 borders with any settlement in between being seen as an acceptable possibility. They took a slow pace and opened a channel via the Polish embassy, but quickly the French and British were drawn in as they were friends with Poland although Poland had no guarantees from either France or Britain. Chamberlain at the time was willing to negotiate since his appeasement policy had proven successful previously which had given him some more stature on the international stage. In the immediate aftermath of the Munich Conference, Poland had occupied small pieces of Czechoslovakia so Hácha was supportive of Germany as well. Bad Polish-Czechoslovakian relations already stretched back quite a while. A conference was called in the city of Dresden. Munich and Nuremberg were purposefully not chosen as they were to loaded with the recent Nazi past. This was known as the Dresden Conference which commenced in November 1939. The Poles themselves were invited unlike the Czechs at the Munich Conference, but they immediately took a defiant stance. Poland itself was a dictatorship and was not in the mood for negotiating over any cession of territory, certainly not to their western neighbour. Negotiations were tough with an obstinate Polish refusal to concede and unrest brewing in Danzig. In a secret operation, Germany had sent agents-provocateurs to Danzig to support the call for annexation by Germany. The Poles instated martial law and outlawed the protests, but they continued. As the conference dragged on, Germany gave a warning to Warsaw that they wouldn’t tolerate the oppression of German people who were exercising their democratic constitutional rights. German panzer divisions began massing against the border and the Polish army announced a partial mobilization.

In mid January 1940, the Poles barged out of the conference to the disappointment and dissatisfaction of both Chamberlain and Daladier while the other great dictator of Europe, Stalin, looked on to see if an opportunity would arise for him. Also, Germany, under the table of course, renounced its claims on Alsace-Lorraine which pleased the French delegation. In the city centre of Danzig, the peaceful protests erupted into violent riots out of frustration as the police dispersed them every time. Police and army units opened fire on the crowd and now both the French and British declared an end to continued support for the Polish government and Germany declared war on January 25th 1940.

Although the German army was superior, it would not be an easy affair for either side. The Poles still had a large army and Germany had drastically scaled down its rearmament program a year before, although German army doctrine was generally more modern and the army was led by superior officers compared to the Polish army. The Luftwaffe immediately began an all out assault and proved to be superior in both numbers and technology. The German Air Force in that period consisted of 1250 fighter craft, 330 Ju 87 Stuka dive bombers, 1200 conventional bombers, and an assortment of 600 transport and 370 reconnaissance aircraft for a total of 3.750 aircraft, all up to modern standards. With experience form the Spanish Civil War, the Luftwaffe was the most experienced, best trained and best equipped air force at the time. The Polish air force was smaller and many planes were far from modern standards with about 600 modern aircraft so the Germans quickly achieved air superiority. On the ground things were more troublesome as the 7TP tank proved a match for the Panzer II, Germany’s most numerous tank. The Panzer III proved superior but Germany only had a small number of these. The Polish corridor was seized and Germany’s doctrinal superiority showed. Poland’s small armoured forces were dispersed over the infantry. Although the 7TP was equal to the Panzer II, the Germans enjoyed quantitative superiority. The Polish commander in chief, Edward Rydz-Śmigly, ordered a retreat to the San and Vistula rivers where his forces regrouped to mount a static defence. Czech involvement would make matters worse.
 
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With the German-Polish War now in full swing, Stalin felt that the opportune moment had come. France and Britain had shown themselves to be weak and submissive. They tolerated what he perceived to be German provocation and aggression so he would get away with his plans too, he reasoned. He had irredentist claims on Bessarabia which had been Romanian since 1918 and with the German-Western detente, he had been rearming massively as well. The Soviet army outnumbered the Romanian army by far with over 240 divisions with over 4.5 million men, 86.600 artillery guns and mortars, 23.400 tanks and over 12.000 aircraft. The Red Army had severe shortcomings as the future would reveal. Over 35.000 officers had perished in the purges, the best Soviet military minds among them. At the end of February, when the German-Polish War reached its zenith, the Red Army was ready or so general Kulik thought. He was a staunch military conservative who opposed Timoshenko’s mechanization of the army, did not like landmines nor submachine guns as he considered them ‘police weapons’ and hated tanks as well. He had his army organized in a very similar way to the Polish army that the Germans were defeating. On February 17th, Soviet troops invaded Bessarabia just as German forces began to encircle Warsaw and crossed the Warta river. This was after negotiations with Bucharest had failed as the Romanians believed they would receive support from France and Britain, a grave mistake. On 04:00 AM local time a devastating Soviet artillery bombardment destroyed Romanian positions on the Dniester river causing a lot of damage. Next, half a million men, 6500 tanks and 4000 aircraft began to move. From the beginning progress was slow as the Romanian army mounted a fierce resistance. The Soviet offensive lacked initiative from individual officers, was badly prepared, suffered from maintenance problems and had found an utterly incompetent commander in Grigori Kulik. Romania fought a fighting retreat in the hills of Bessarabia to the Prut river. In the end numbers mattered, but in one month, 25.000 men and 700 tanks had been lost by the Red Army to both enemy fire and breakdown. Guerrilla resistance from remaining Romanian forces wreaked havoc behind the lines and troubled Soviet supply lines. The militarily still weak Soviet Union was lucky that both Britain and France voiced no more than a diplomatic protest and took no military action.

In Poland, German forces completed the surrounding of Warsaw which came under siege by the end of February. By now, German bombers could roam through Polish skies freely and by mid March Przemyśl came within range of German artillery and Lublin fell to forces under the command under young, progressive commanders Erwin Rommel who led a panzer division and Heinz Guderian. A Czechoslovakian offensive toward Przemyśl supported by the Germans made things worse. Poland surrendered on March 20th 1940. A peace was imposed and after Poland’s behaviour at the Dresden Conference and beyond, France and Britain looked the other way. Germany was restored to 1914 borders and the Polish government raged and fumed about French and British betrayal but had no choice but to accept this, along with 5 billion marks in war reparations. Germany needed these as they themselves had suffered losses of their own and because it provided a stimulus to the German economy, more so with all of the important industrial areas of Silesia in German hands. Czechoslovakia settled its claims as well with small pieces of Polish land awarded to them in the peace treaty, or dictate for the Poles. With this in mind, Lithuania agreed to cede Memel to Germany without violence and for a token financial compensation. The German-Polish War of 1940 was over.

As for Romania, they wouldn’t surrender until June after Hungarian forces invaded Transylvania, but they would still lose Bessarabia and Transylvania (in part thanks to Hungarian backstabbing over which resentment would simmer for years to come). Stalin was furious about this debacle and the image this would create to the perceived threat that was the so far still fictional (but very real in his paranoid mind) reactionary, capitalist Anglo-German-French block.

In Rome, another dictator was not too happy with the territorial expansions and successes of both the USSR and the renewed German Empire, an enemy resurrected from the grave as far as many Italians were concerned. Many war veterans had fought the German Empire during Italy’s participation in World War I (1915-1918). Mussolini was far from pleased with Italy’s image of junior partner to the great powers and wanted to establish a sphere of influence of his own and hem in Soviet influence in the Balkans which, in his eyes, had become painfully clear and too powerful. Mussolini also wanted to end what he saw as German meddling in Italian affairs. Much of late 1940 he spent hectoring in Athens to gain an alliance with the dictator of Greece, Ioannis Metaxas who viewed communist expansion and growing influence in the Balkans as a threat as much as Mussolini did. This was also a stab at Italy’s expansionist goals in the region and very soon Rome would make its move against one of its neighbours in what would become known as the Third Balkan War. Seeing how Britain and France had failed to come to Romania’s aid in the Bessarabian War, he viewed Mussolini as a more valuable ally than either Paris or London. Hungary’s expansionist aims into Ruthenia had failed as they encountered German resistance since Czechoslovakia was now under their protection and had been drifting more and more into Mussolini’s arms for years, ever since 1938 in fact, since the Munich Agreement. Count Ciano, Italy’s foreign minister, found it easy to convince regent Miklós Horthy to sign an alliance. Bulgaria was not pleased with the existence of the Yugoslav state either and very soon the so-called ‘little Axis’ of Rome-Budapest-Sofia-Athens was formed even though Greece and Bulgaria remained at odds as well. The menacing Soviet presence proved inspiration to them to put their differences (mainly over Thrace) aside. Very soon they began cutting up Yugoslavia on their maps and drew plans against Belgrade. Italian agents-provocateurs started stirring up unrest in Croatia and Bosnia which the Yugoslav Royal Army put down harshly before instating martial law to combat ‘restive terrorist elements’, similar to what had happened in Poland. Italian troops began massing against the borders. Hungary and Bulgaria began partial mobilizations of their militaries. On March 7th 1941, Italy, Hungary and Bulgaria declared war on the very flimsy excuse that it was humanitarian intervention on behalf of the Croats and Bosnians. According to Italy, the Serbs were conducting an ethnic cleansing, a genocide, against these peoples, ‘a crime that none of the powers could tolerate’. Greece remained neutral as they had no interests in the region although they were generally supportive.

On that same day, Italian battleships Littorio and Vittorio Veneto commenced with a coastal bombardment of Yugoslav positions. On the eve of war, the Yugoslav Royal Navy consisted of one ex-German light cruiser (WW1 vintage and only suited for training purposes), one British designed destroyer, three French designed destroyers, one seaplane tender, four modern submarines (two older French-built and two British built), ten motor torpedo boats, six ex-Austrian World War I vintage medium torpedo boats, six ex-German Navy minesweepers, five small mine layers, four large armoured river monitors and various auxiliary craft. Needless to say, the Italian fleet was by far superior with two big-gun battleships and a number of supporting heavy cruisers and other ships. The small Yugoslav navy remained in port and would be destroyed by air attack. The river monitors would provide some fire support against Hungarian forces on the Danube, but wouldn’t influence the outcome of the war. In the north, Italian forces under Marshall Badoglio invaded into Slovenia and occupied Fiume. Hungarian forces invaded the north into Vojvodina while Bulgaria attacked the Yugoslav garrison in Vardar Macedonia which they claimed for themselves. Greece maintained pro-Italian neutrality and politically supported the war against Yugoslavia. Both France and Britain looked upon this ambivalently. On one hand they supported their Yugoslav allies and disapproved of what they called Italian-Hungarian-Bulgarian aggression. On the other hand, they viewed a strong Italian presence and the existence of the ‘little Axis’ as a buffer against further Soviet expansion in the region as opposed to the weak Yugoslavia. Stalin had not given up on the old Russian dream of a presence on the Bosporus yet which they knew quite well. Also, France and Britain would not be able to support Yugoslavia directly in any way, much like they couldn’t support Romania a year before either.

Stalin himself denounced the war as an imperialist act of aggression and attempted to funnel weapons and supplies to the beleaguered Yugoslav Royal Army. Twenty-five of the new modern Yak-1 fighter planes made their way to the Yugoslav Royal Air Force which had suffered severe losses against the numerically superior and more modern Regia Aeronautica. He also sold one hundred obsolete T-26 tanks to them. These proved a match for the Italian Fiat M11/39 tank and their tankettes, but Italian forces still grossly outnumbered the divided Yugoslav army whose war effort now rested mostly on the Serbs as Croat soldiers were deserting en masse. Nevertheless, the advance was slow and troublesome. The Regia Esercito experienced troubles similar to those of the Red Army in Romania. Communications between the air force and ground forces were mostly lacking as the air force relied on the Douhet doctrine which favoured bombers and not ground support roles like the modern Luftwaffe did. The poorly prepared offensive ran into resistance in the Dinaric Alps in Croatia and Bosnia where Serb forces formed new defensive lines and successfully halted the Italian advance for a moment while the same happened to Hungarian forces on the Danube. This was three weeks after the start of the war. Mussolini was frustrated by the lack of progress and demanded that Badoglio opened up a second front by invading Albania. Badoglio pleaded knowing the Italian army was not ready, but Mussolini insisted and so Italian forces took on little Albania which fell in three days. The mountainous south of Serbia was easy to defend and Italian troops bogged down within days, but Yugoslavia now found itself fighting a four front war. With their refusal to surrender, they irritated Mussolini who ordered terror bombings similar to those in Poland by the German air force. A five hundred plane raid against Belgrade devastated the city centre.

Stalin watched with interest and with the eyes of Europe focused on the Third Balkan War, he wanted to test his rebuilt Red Army. After the debacle in Bessarabia, Kulik had been fired, degraded and sent to a post in the Russian Far East. Only Kulik’s friendship with Stalin had spared him his life from execution for incompetence or even treason. In his place, Timoshenko had been named Peoples’ Commissar of Defence and he advocated a mechanization of the Red Army. The long discredited ‘Deep Battle’ doctrine of Marshall Tuchachevski was being brought back up again by Timoshenko who was a Marshall himself by now. In early April 1941, Stalin began making demands to Finland. He wanted them to cede the Karelian Isthmus because this would improve Leningrad’s position in the event of war with Germany. He also demanded a thirty year lease of the Hanko Peninsula so the Soviets could establish a military base there and the cession of several islands in the Gulf of Finland. Helsinki refused and on April 9th 1941 Stalin’s army attacked. The Red Army was reforming but was still far from finished and Timoshenko would rather have seen the war a year later, but Stalin told him to work with what he had. He had, among other things, several hundred new KV-1 tanks and T-34 tanks which would see action along with the still quite new Yak-1 fighter and the brand new IL-2 ‘Sturmovik’ dive bomber. 992.000 men were massed against the Finnish border and they attacked under the pretext of taking back what was rightfully Russian (note the use of the word ‘Russian’ and not Soviet).

In the meantime, Italian, Bulgarian and Hungarian troops were still busy fighting in Yugoslavia. The bombing raid against Belgrade had only incited a deep nationalist anger in the hearts of many Serbs and resistance toughened which only led to Mussolini increasing the intensity and frequency of the bombing and after a few weeks, Belgrade was a smouldering ruin. On May 1st, a combined Italo-Hungarian offensive was launched against weakening Serb lines. The Serbs resisted vigorously and launched local counteroffensives which failed. On May 10th, victorious Italian and Hungarian forces marched into Belgrade. At this point, resistance seemed hopeless and Yugoslavia capitulated on May 14th 1941. The Third Balkan War was over and the dismemberment of Yugoslavia could begin. In the Treaty of Sofia, Italy was awarded Istria, Dalmatia and Fiume and an Italian protectorate was established over the newly created Princedom of Montenegro and Kosovo was annexed into occupied Albania. Albania was annexed into Italy. Bulgaria annexed the coveted Vardar Macedonia while Hungary took ethnically Hungarian parts of Vojvodina and the whole of Slavonia. An independent Croat state was also erected (which included Bosnia) under Croat nationalist leader Ante Pavelic. This became the Kingdom of Croatia with the throne awarded to a member of the House of Savoy of course. Chosen was Amedeo, 3rd Duke of Aosta who reigned under the regnal name of King Tomislav II of Croatia. The remaining Serb rump state became a vassal to Rome.

Soviet forces under Marshall Timoshenko, in the meantime, were doing reasonably well against Finnish forces, a much better showing than during the Romanian campaign of 1940. The Mannerheim line had been broken after days of heavy fighting and high casualties for both sides. Soviet artillery with 76 and 122 mm guns was more effective than in past times with better fire control systems. New purely armour divisions and mechanized divisions destroyed the weaker armour of the Finnish army although problems remained. Large numbers of Finnish forces remained behind enemy lines and Soviet anti-guerrilla tactics had not progressed further than ‘rape, pillage and burn every suspected village you come across’. Timoshenko had already informed Stalin that he expected a six to nine week campaign unlike the optimistic and incompetent Kulik who said he could do it in under three weeks. The Germans denounced the attack as aggression and did what they could short of declaring war. They didn’t want a Soviet presence on the Baltic Sea. They sold newer 37 and 75 mm anti-tank guns, Panzer IVs and fighter planes and a volunteer legion was formed to combat the Red Menace. Several thousands of German volunteers would fight the Soviets during the short war. This slowed down Soviet progress and went far from unnoticed in Moscow. By the time of the Yugoslavian surrender however, Soviet tank formations closed around Helsinki although the government had already evacuated to Vaasa on Finland’s west coast while the Battle of Helsinki began. Some 20.000 Finnish soldiers were tasked with the defence against a force ten times bigger. Trenches had been dug, blockades erected, barbed wire laid, mines laid, anti-tank ditches dug and pillboxes built. All of it was hastily improvised work and on May 12th, the vanguard of Soviet forces reached the outskirts of the city. In spite of an intense artillery bombardment, the Red Army was stalled. With the arrival of the elite 1st Guard Tank division equipped with several regiments of the new KV-1 and T-34 tanks, the line was broken and Finnish forces fell back to defences in the city itself. Machine guns and anti-tank guns set up in the streets leading to the city centre caused heavy losses as Soviet troops were funnelled into these streets were they were cut down. The flood of soldiers overwhelmed these positions, but the Soviets were forced to fight for every house and every building, leading to a 4:1 casualty rate for the Red Army. Victory, however, was not in doubt. The Soviets also employed a new terror weapon known as the Katyusha rocket launchers known as Stalin’s Pipe Organs. These multiple truck mounted rocket launchers struck terror into the hearts of Finnish soldiers with their howl and caused a lot of devastation. One week later, on May 19th, Helsinki fell with only a few hundred defenders left, but after almost 80.000 casualties for the Red Army.

With more than half of the country occupied after stubborn resistance, the Finnish government decided to evacuate to a safe haven, Germany. They would rather become a government in exile than capitulate. Finland was officially fully occupied on June 1st 1941. Stalin continued undeterred by the Finnish gesture and occupied Finland and integrated it as the Finnish Soviet Socialist Republic, or FSSR for short, under Finnish communists. What followed would be a nightmarish occupation with a long guerrilla war and terrorist campaign by the remnants of the Finnish armed forces combined with a strong civilian resistance which would grow after every brutal Soviet reprisal. What followed next was typical for Soviet occupations. The NKVD, Stalin’s dreaded secret police, swept in and arrested anyone who was deemed ‘capitalist’ or ‘reactionary’. Most of the Finnish intelligentsia would be murdered.

German assistance had been a thorn in Stalin’s side and their continued aid for the Finnish resistance frustrated him. The conquest of Finland had also terrified both the French and British who now feared the Stalinist steamroller. For several years now, a detente had bloomed between the Anglo-French allies and Germany thanks to the new Kaiser’s conciliatory attitude. France and Britain began making overtures to Germany for an alliance and to a lesser extent to Italy as well. Stalin feared this more than anything and his own rash actions had caused it no less. In September 1941, they signed the Treaty of Rome, a defensive military alliance between Germany, France, Britain and Italy (although the last demanded the recognition of the Treaty of Sofia first). This new alliance frightened another power as well.

Japan, on the other end of the world, was fighting a war of conquest in China. With an American oil embargo in place, Japan was running out of fuel fast. America upheld an Open Door Policy in China as they had strong business interests there and disapproved of Japanese actions. Japan saw this as a hostile act and with Britain, France and the Dutch upholding the embargo, Japan was low on resources for its war machine and needed to expand south or make peace. The latter was unacceptable, but Japan couldn’t do it alone of course. They needed an ally and found a very unlikely one in their large northern neighbour. Stalin knew realpolitik and a temporary alliance with Japan against the west was needed. Both knew that this alliance was only a ‘marriage of convenience’ or so to speak. Nevertheless, the Moscow-Tokyo Axis had formed and Stalin withdrew any and all support to the Kuomintang of Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-Shek. Mao Zedong, the communist leader, was deeply upset by this and disagreed with Stalin’s new course of action. He, however, followed Moscow to keep the Soviet Union’s favour. Molotov, The USSR’s Foreign Commissar, was sent to Tokyo to broker a peace. The Japanese recognised only Mao’s communists as the legitimate government for now. This was because of their alliance commitments to Moscow and not any love for Mao Zedong. They made peace and a border was drawn. Japan took most of Manchuria, part of Inner Mongolia, Hebei and obtained a lease on Shanghai. Mao, in the meantime, set up a capital in Nanking with Stalin’s endorsement. Like Stalin, Mao had no intention of upholding the alliance any longer than was necessary. After Japan had served its purpose, the alliance would be null and void. With this settled, Stalin drew his plans against the west.
 
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Very interesting TL. I wonder how this will affect US politics as I doubt that FDR will seek a third term and the US will remain isolationist (a little longer).
 
Interesting TL.

I initially thought Britain and France abandoning the Sudetenland so quickly to the new government--particularly since you emphasized it was "the old enemy, the Junkers"--seemed a bit off, but they did do the same thing in OTL.

The butterflies are interesting--the Finns no longer exist, but the Baltic states survive, for now. The Balkan war was interesting.
 
Interesting TL.

I initially thought Britain and France abandoning the Sudetenland so quickly to the new government--particularly since you emphasized it was "the old enemy, the Junkers"--seemed a bit off, but they did do the same thing in OTL.

The butterflies are interesting--the Finns no longer exist, but the Baltic states survive, for now. The Balkan war was interesting.
Taking the Sudetenland was Hitler's idea - basically, you have a coup to PREVENT that from happening, and now, suddenly, the Army gets it? This seems very strange to me.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if England and France guaranteed the territorial integrity of Finland if Germany weren't a ravening Nazi power.... OTL they had plans to send 'volunteers' through Sweden.
 
Taking the Sudetenland was Hitler's idea - basically, you have a coup to PREVENT that from happening, and now, suddenly, the Army gets it? This seems very strange to me.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if England and France guaranteed the territorial integrity of Finland if Germany weren't a ravening Nazi power.... OTL they had plans to send 'volunteers' through Sweden.

Well, actually the army didn't want a war. They didn't mind taking the Sudetenland peacefully. And Germany took France and Britain's place in sending 'volunteers' (didn't work obviously). Working on that next chapter btw ;).
 

Eurofed

Banned
Cool, another of my preferred "let's save Europe without screwing Germany" PoDs realized with typical OW military expertise. I'll follow this with outmost interest. :D Subscribed.

Now, a few questions:

IMO the Hungarians have been relatively quiet about fulfillment of their irredentist claims, apart from taking part into killing the Yugoslavian beast. I would have expected them at least to threat a backstab of Romania while it was attacked by Russia, and getting back northern Transylvania this way. I wonder, did a First Vienna Award take place ITTL as well, it was a 1-month-later addendum to the Munich Agreement that gave them Hungarian-majority areas of southern Slovakia. If it did, it would help explain why they say relatively quiet while the Russians are busy butchering the Romanians (although the Hungarian army was not anything to write home about, it would have been the best moment to demand northern Transylvania back, Bucharest would be in no sitation to deny them). Since the FWA was an addendum to the Munich Agreement, I would expect it transpired here as well.

The political situation of Poland after the war with Germany is interesting. No doubt they are full of resentment against Germany and the other Western powers, yet they are obviouly the next target on Stalin's list and need their help to survive. Did the war caused them to make a shift to a satellite of Germany like Czechoslovakia, did they retire to resentful isolationism, or Soviet threat can still make them reluctant partners of the Western powers (I would rule out them getting philo-Soviet, despite resentment for the recent war, Germany no more desires anything from them while Stalin does) ? If they refuse any military cooperation with the aborning anti-Soviet alliance, with their army still in shambles after the war with Germany, the Red Army could easily overrun most of Poland.

Is Sweden getting ready to cast neutrality off and join the anti-Soviet coalition ? I would expect so, with Finland overrun they should be scared as Hell.

Romania ITTL is an interesting analogy to Finland OTL (besides their simmering fued with Budapest, see above). They survived the first Soviet onslaught thanks to the bad shape of the Red Army, they lost some important stuff yet they survived for now, however they are an obvious Soviet target when the refurbished Red Army restarts its onslaught, and they may still have some fighting capability and political will to cooperate with the aborning anti-Soviet coalition in the coming rematch.

I am curious to see what Stalin and Stavka's plans are for the next wave. It goes without mentioning that the Baltic states are living on borrowed time, but I wonder, does Stalin at the moment expect that Germany, Britain, and France are still too weak/coward to fight when he does another aggression ? If he does, besides the Baltics, who are quickly dispatched, his next combined target should be Poland, which holds the keys of Central Europe, and finishing the kill of Romania, which holds the keys of the Balkans. If however, he deems the Western powers are ready to fight, and he's simply biding his time before the Red Army is ready for a general pre-emptive attack, then the reverse Barbarossa offensive needs to be expanded to Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan as well at the very least, and quite likely to Sweden and Turkey as well, unless he plans to bully either or both states ino submission.
 
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Eurofed

Banned
Taking the Sudetenland was Hitler's idea - basically, you have a coup to PREVENT that from happening, and now, suddenly, the Army gets it? This seems very strange to me.

Nope. Getting Austria, the Corridor & Upper Silesia, and Sudetenland, in this rough order of preference, was the awowed irredentist goal of the whole German nation after Versailles. Hitler was the one that wanted to conquer all of Czechoslovakia (and Poland), this is why he was disappointed with the Munich compromise, why he was eager to go at war anyway, and why he betrayed it after a few months.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if England and France guaranteed the territorial integrity of Finland if Germany weren't a ravening Nazi power.... OTL they had plans to send 'volunteers' through Sweden.

Well, likely reassessing their strategy after the regime change in Germany momentarily got them into confusion, so they did not thought of giving Finland a guarantee until it was too late. It took them a while to realize out that Hitler could not be reasoned out and had to be fought, no wonder it takes them a little to realize the same with Stalin. However, I would expect that next Soviet aggression (the Baltics) makes them do so, and the one after that (Poland, Romania mk. II, or both) becomes their line in the sand, and declarations of war start flinging.
 
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Eurofed

Banned
I initially thought Britain and France abandoning the Sudetenland so quickly to the new government--particularly since you emphasized it was "the old enemy, the Junkers"--seemed a bit off, but they did do the same thing in OTL.

During the late 1920s and the 1930s, Britain and France had come to the realization that they could live with a re-emergence of Germany fulfilling its reasonable irredentist objectives, the old conservative elites are nothing new in this perspective, they can do business with them even better than they were willing to do so with early Hitler (esp. after they dispatched him and revealed how dangerous he was in retrospective).

the Baltic states survive, for now.

Poster children for living on borrowed time.

Very interesting TL. I wonder how this will affect US politics as I doubt that FDR will seek a third term and the US will remain isolationist (a little longer).

Well, FDR's third term largely depends on how much his personal Sovietophilia and Germanophobia become known to the American public, which could easily become a political damning mark in the new international atmosphere, and how much he's willing to tone them down seriously in order to keep power as an anti-Soviet war president. American isolationism essentially depends on Japan's actions first. Besides the obvious Pearl Harbor possibility, if they enlarge their South East Asia attack to the Philippines, America has no choice but to join the fray in Asia. Second, American Land-Lease to the European powers is a given, if Russia starts a naval war against American shipping (how good are going to be Soviet submarines, I wonder ?) or overruns the Middle East, America is likely joining the anti-Soviet coalition as well sooner or later.
 
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Very nice.

By the coup you redeemed Germany from the Nazi legacy, it will now just be regarded as a mistake brought on by Versailles and the Depression. You even managed to restore the monarchy. Anbd of course let us not forget the Sudetenlad/Czech vassailzation. The Polish War has both announced Germany's return to great power status and settled all but the lunatic ireedentist claims. And all without any ASB perfection.

But my reaql curiousity lies further South.

1. How are matters progressing in Spain? Franco willstill be in power but how will his policies be affected by the Regime change in Germany and no general European war?

2. Italy has gained its sphere of Influence and now has International stading as the leader of a power bloc. Will the Itlian miitary be reformed after the underwhelming performances in the Balkans and Spain? Also Air Marshal Balbo is still alive. Has the conquest solidified Mussolini's position or the poor handlng lead the Council to question hios ability to continue to lead the state?

3. Romania will likely try to join the Axis to prevent following in Finland's footsteps. What price would be demanded by Sofia and Horthy, and would it be to high?
 

Eurofed

Banned
1. How are matters progressing in Spain? Franco willstill be in power but how will his policies be affected by the Regime change in Germany and no general European war?

In all likelihood, Franco shall cling to alliance with the Italian bloc and pattern its regime to copy Mussolini's. And like the rest of of the Italian bloc, the Western democracies (now including newly monarchical Germany, so much like Britain in many regards) shall regard it as a slightly embarassing but necessary ally for the sake of anti-Communist containtment much like NATO did with anti-Communist right-wing dictatorships during the Cold War. "Our son of a b---" and all that.

2. Italy has gained its sphere of Influence and now has International stading as the leader of a power bloc.

Which ought to make Mussolini less unpredictable and more cooperative during the war.

Will the Itlian miitary be reformed after the underwhelming performances in the Balkans and Spain?

Given that TTL is giving Italy the chance to reform before suffering collapse, I would say yes. Also remember that IOTL Mussolini expected a major war in Europe in 1942-43 and planned accordingly. A WWII beginning in 1942 should see Italy much better prepared, and the sobering experience of the Balkan War helps a lot to see the flaws.

Also Air Marshal Balbo is still alive.

And can influence the regime to implement the necessary reforms. Not to mention being a popular link with the Western elites.

Has the conquest solidified Mussolini's position or the poor handlng lead the Council to question hios ability to continue to lead the state?

The former, I say. It took much bigger failures for the latter to happen IOTL. For all its flaws in execution, the Balkan War has been a big success for Italy.

3. Romania will likely try to join the Axis to prevent following in Finland's footsteps.

Very true. And Poland, too, would equally be very smart to seek allies soon, without sulking too much about being cast down from unsustainable nationalist ambitions, if they don't want to kowtow another Russian governor in Warsaw and feel the joys of Stalinism any time soon.

What price would be demanded by Sofia and Horthy, and would it be to high?

The usual old stuff: renunciation of Romanian claims on Northern Transylvania for Hungary, cession of Southern Dobruja for Bulgaria. Given that they paid the price IOTL, and managed to be a working member of the Axis afterwards for years, it is doable. Romania can and is going to be rewarded with return of Bessarabia and the gain of Transnistria afterwards, as in OTL.
 
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Eurofed

Banned
I wonder if Albert Einstein will play a part in this post-Hitler Germany.

As an influential public figure, surely. ITTL the Nazi have fallen before Kristallnacht and the Jews only suffered legal discrimination for 5 years, a soon forgotten aberration. I dunno how many of the Jew and anti-Nazi expatriates come back and how many stay in America, but those who stay do it for personal reasons. Mind it, Einstein's contribution to the Project Manhattan is largely overrated in popular culture, he did little more than convincing FDR to start it. However, the rest of the Jew scientists coming back is going to have a huge beneficial effect on the German nuclear program, as well as with the rest of the German war effort. As it does the Anglo-German(-American) scientific and engineering cooperation, of course. An Anglo-German Project Shiva with all the Jew scientists has huge potential, and the USSR being the official enemy shall surely lead to ferreting out most of the Communist spies among the British (and American) personnel, kicking back the Soviet nuclear program many years. Even more so if the Americans take part (American Land-Lease and financial support is going to critical to the success of the Anglo-German nuclear program, and the war effort in general anyway, even if they are not official co-belligerants). I can definitely see artificial sunshine coming on some Soviet city...
 
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