WI the Albuquerque's Red Sea plan worked?

This plan created in a meting in the Portuguese court between 1504 and 1506 [1] had two goals:
1-Close the Red Sea safe for the Portuguese
2-See Jerusalem as a Christian city again

So if the ladders in 1513 manage to hold up, Albuquerque would take over Aden [2].
As Aden is dependent of Zeila and Berbera for its food, those cities would be taken and fortress build, as he did in the other ports he conquer.
His next move would be on Massawa that supplied food to Jeddah [3].
With the first part of the plan to close the Red Sea in place he now would plan the capture of Medina and Mecca.
In 1514 a fleet of 40 ships [4] would land the Ethiopian horses [5] and the Portuguese solders.
After an hard battle the city is taken and now he had to ride with his 3000 horseman to get Mecca and Medina.
Again, imagine that he manages to take both cities.
The third part of his plan was to negotiate a trade of Jerusalem and an harbor for Mecca and Medina.
Would the Mamluck Sultanate, in 1514, accept such a deal or would they became so enraged and start a war to annihilate the Portuguese presence in Arabia?
And if they accepted would this led to an earlier war with the Ottomans, with the Ottomans also taking advantage and retaking Jerusalem?

Also part of the master plan was to weaken the Mamluck Sultanate with the detour of the Blue Nile to the Red Sea.
So sometime between 1530 and 1540, if possible and in this case as a thought experiment after 15 to 25 years of work, the Blue Nile is rerouted to the Red Sea.
Again if it is possible, the people North of Khartoum will lose the biggest part of their annual flood, similar to the severe drought that caused the collapse of the Old Kingdom.
With Egypt suffering with famine does the people move up the Nile to the highlands of Ethiopia, or will they move to other parts of the Ottoman Empire like the Balkans,or in the later date to Mesopotamia?

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[1] This is only part of a bigger plan, other parts wore the closure of the Persian Gulf by taking Ormuz as he did in 1507 and 1515; find and trade spices with Malacca but he conquered it in 1511 and sent expeditions to Siam, Moluccas and China; to take control of Calicut, it failed in 1519 but he conquered Goa in 1510 and in 1513 he build a trading post in Calicut.
[2] In OTL he did tried to go after Jeddah when the attack failed in Aden, but failed due to the lack of propitious winds
[3] At that time these three cities weren't walled and the Portuguese did raided them several times, with this move he can now blockade Jeddah
[4] At that time there wore 50 ships in Goa so he might go to the Red Sea with about 5000 solders; D. Fernando Coutinho did take to the Indic Ocean in 1509 15 ships and three thousand solders; Albuquerque to take Aden he got 20 ships and 2500 solders; so to take Jeddah he would take even more ships and solders, in this case the double of Aden expedition.
[5] The Ethiopians had promised 3000 horses for that campaign, in OTL
 
Interesting stuff.

First, though, you seem to be making a lot of assumptions just to get the scenario started. Second, the Portuguese could not move the Nile.
 
The plan itself was based in letters from Pêro da Covilhã, he had visited Aden, Cairo, Ormuz, Goa, Cannanor, Calicut, Melinde, Kilwa, Mozambique, Sofala, sailed in the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean between 1487 and 1491.
To carry the plan I made three big assumptions.
First the ladders wore sturdier thus allowing the Portuguese to storm and conquer Aden.
Second he can get the horses promised by the Ethiopians.
Third he can take Jeddah, Mecca and Medina.

The first could have happened.
The second is tricky; but Pêro was living in Ethiopia since 1494, in 1508 is the counselor of the queen; so with contact with Albuquerque from 1513 mainly after his conquest of Massawa (Massawa, Zeila and Berbera weren't walled and the captains after the failed Aden attack, in OTL, looted all these cities; and in OTL Albuquerque did of conquer ports and improved its fortifications); it could worked.
Third the number of ships and solders wore there in Goa in OTL he couldn't make a second assault on Aden; the taking of Jeddah, Mecca and Medina would be difficult but all Portuguese solders did had train in fighting in the desert with Arabic peoples( they all spend many years of their youth in Morocco).

Well, he didn't plan to move the Nile, just the Blue Nile.
He wanted to diverted to the Red Sea, and as I pointed as a thought experiment I would like to know the thoughts of the forum, personally it's the only part of its plan that is ASB.
 
After reading about the Portuguese presence in the Arabian peninsula I was guided to the books:"História do Descobrimento e Conquista da Índia pelos Portugueses" by Fernão Lopes de Castanheda published in 1551( "History of the Discovery and Conquest of India by the Portuguese"), of which I only read a few excerpts.
In its Book 1, chapter 1 he refers to Pêro da Covilhã.
After he guided the rabbi Abraham of Beja to Ormuz in 1491, he visited Jeddah, Mecca, Medina, the Saint Catherine's Monastery in Sinai and embark in Tor to Zeila.
In Zeila he went inland until he meet the Ethiopian king Alexander/ Eskender.

As in OTL Pêro couldn't sent to Portugal the notes of this last voyage until the Portuguese embassy of 1520, because no foreign was aloud to exit Ethiopia at that time.
In here there will be contact as early as 1513, so his reports will be available to Albuquerque.
Because of the detail that Pêro put in his reports, Albuquerque will have a very good idea of the roads, water wells and oasis.
So I think that his campaign will be even easier, the only problem would be storming the walls of Jeddah, but as he conquered Goa , Ormuz and Malacca (Aden was a near thing by the Portuguese reports of the time) I think that he probably could do it.
 
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