WWII continues: USA vs. USSR

[Nerdlinger]

Suppose the following: Not long after the Japanese surrender in WWII, something sets off a war between the United States and the Soviet Union. What might be a plausible trigger? What would this continued WWII be like? How long would the fighting last? Who would come out victorious?

My thoughts: The trigger might be some kind of catastrophic misunderstanding between American and Soviet troops in Germany or Korea. I don't know if the world's two biggest heavyweights would be too war-weary to fight for long (or at all), but I expect the US would have an edge at first due to its nukes. However, the Soviets might catch up quickly and even things out. I don't know who'd win, but I envision Vladivostok going up in a mushroom cloud early on.

PS: I apologize if this question has been posted elsewhere. I found some similar ones, but nothing quite like this.

[BlackWave]

There have been quite a few discussions on this subject. There's even a big TL, I believe.

[The Vulture]

The British and Americans actually did do some rudimentary planing for just such an eventuality- check out the UK's Operation Unthinkable or the American Operation Sledgehammer for a good starting point

[Nerdlinger]

Originally Posted by BlackWave

There have been quite a few discussions on this subject. There's even a big TL, I believe.

Neat. Could you please provide links to any you know of? I wasn't even quite sure what keywords to use to search for this topic.

[Nerdlinger]

Originally Posted by The Vulture

The British and Americans actually did do some rudimentary planing for just such an eventuality- check out the UK's Operation Unthinkable or the American Operation Sledgehammer for a good starting point

Thanks for pointing me in a good direction. I spent most of my education studying biology, so my knowledge of history is itself rudimentary. I'm learning, though, if slowly....

[The Vulture]

No problem, happy to be able to help.

And glad to hear you're getting into history.

[The Kiat]

I imagine the Soviets would get nukes. As for causes: perhaps if Patton lived longer and had freer reign. More likely, the Soviets might try to violate Yalta and grab Greece. Or overtly aid Communists in Greece or Turkey. Or even try to seal off West Berlin earlier.

[Xen]

In 1945 the Soviets had the advantage on land, however the allies had the advantage on the sea and in the air. I do not know how much the Soviets were relying on lend lease at this particular time, which could be a contributing factor. My bet is the western allies are driven across the Rhine where the Soviets have difficulty crossing. The allies begin to rearm the German Army and send them into battle to help liberate their own nation from the USSR. The western allies begin bombing Soviet supply lines royally hurting thier logistics capabilities, but this merely stops the Soviet offensive.

Who wins from here? Hard to say, the Soviets will have to rush their nuclear research which wasnt complete until 1949 I believe, this may end up backfiring on them. So the western allies send Vladivostok, Leningrad, Moscow and Stalingrad up in a mushroom cloud, all but crippling the Soviet Union. The angry red army makes the allies pay for every step they take into occupied Germany. It will be a very bloody war which I believe ultimately the western allies will win.

[Nerdlinger]

Originally Posted by Xen

In 1945 the Soviets had the advantage on land, however the allies had the advantage on the sea and in the air. I do not know how much the Soviets were relying on lend lease at this particular time, which could be a contributing factor. My bet is the western allies are driven across the Rhine where the Soviets have difficulty crossing. The allies begin to rearm the German Army and send them into battle to help liberate their own nation from the USSR. The western allies begin bombing Soviet supply lines royally hurting thier logistics capabilities, but this merely stops the Soviet offensive.

Who wins from here? Hard to say, the Soviets will have to rush their nuclear research which wasnt complete until 1949 I believe, this may end up backfiring on them. So the western allies send Vladivostok, Leningrad, Moscow and Stalingrad up in a mushroom cloud, all but crippling the Soviet Union. The angry red army makes the allies pay for every step they take into occupied Germany. It will be a very bloody war which I believe ultimately the western allies will win.

It's interesting to think of the allies arming Germany to fight the Soviets. I wonder if they'd do the same with the Japanese in East Asia.

And the aftermath . . . what kind of Cold War would this produce? The Soviets may be able to regain some of their former strength, but could anyone really pose much of a threat to the US after that? Of course, Britain may not remain friendly, and if (and when) China gets its economy going, then the US might have competition, but it seems like the US would dominate the world even more than in OTL from then on.

[MikeTurcotte]

Done to death.

Long story short - USSR looses, and looses big. The German Army, in 1945, with no air cover, massive outnumbered in tanks, artillery and men still inflicted devastating losses on the Red Army as it advanced.

I do not think the WAllies would arm the Germans - no need. The Soviets would probably get to the Rhine. But in summer, completely exposed to the Allied air forces? The T-34s are toast on the North German plain. The Red Airforce was enormous, but a generation behind the west. Once the Red Airforce is gone, then the Red Army is chewed up.

The USSR was exhausted. They were already press-ganing people to fill the ranks; this would have been worse. Britain was spent as well, but the US was not, and the US had the bomb and the industrial and logistical capability the Germans never did. The Red Army is shattered by the autumn. After a build up in the winter of 1945-46, the Allies launch an a-bomb fueled invasion of the USSR, which is coupled with not only devastating tactical air over the battlefield, but deep strategic strikes by the 8th Air Force.

Either a political settlement is reached, or the USSR goes down swinging; it doesn't really matter which. Welcome to the post cold war world in 1947.

Now, what happens in 1948 could be interesting as the world confronts the sole superpower - the United States.

Mike

[Blizrun]

Originally Posted by MikeTurcotte

Done to death.

Long story short - USSR looses, and looses big. The German Army, in 1945, with no air cover, massive outnumbered in tanks, artillery and men still inflicted devastating losses on the Red Army as it advanced.

I do not think the WAllies would arm the Germans - no need. The Soviets would probably get to the Rhine. But in summer, completely exposed to the Allied air forces? The T-34s are toast on the North German plain. The Red Airforce was enormous, but a generation behind the west. Once the Red Airforce is gone, then the Red Army is chewed up.

The USSR was exhausted. They were already press-ganing people to fill the ranks; this would have been worse. Britain was spent as well, but the US was not, and the US had the bomb and the industrial and logistical capability the Germans never did. The Red Army is shattered by the autumn. After a build up in the winter of 1945-46, the Allies launch an a-bomb fueled invasion of the USSR, which is coupled with not only devastating tactical air over the battlefield, but deep strategic strikes by the 8th Air Force.

Either a political settlement is reached, or the USSR goes down swinging; it doesn't really matter which. Welcome to the post cold war world in 1947.

Now, what happens in 1948 could be interesting as the world confronts the sole superpower - the United States.

Mike

Pretty much spot on.

[Ward]

[QUOTE=MikeTurcotte;2786132]Done to death.

Long story short - USSR looses, and looses big. The German Army, in 1945, with no air cover, massive outnumbered in tanks, artillery and men still inflicted devastating losses on the Red Army as it advanced.



I do not think the WAllies would arm the Germans - no need. The Soviets would probably get to the Rhine. But in summer, completely exposed to the Allied air forces? The T-34s are toast on the North German plain. The Red Airforce was enormous, but a generation behind the west. Once the Red Airforce is gone, then the Red Army is chewed up.

The Yak 9 UU was a match for the P-51 And the Red Air force was a tactical Air force And who saids they were a generation Behind anyone .
The T-34/85 was a harder hitting tank then the Sherman Tank was .


The Red Army in the Early part of 1945 was refitting and show me facts and figures were the Germans were Getting Better then 2.5 kill ratio to the Red Army . And Rember the Red Army Was attacking into cities and in to Germany . The Red Army of 1945 kicked ASS and Took names .

[DuQuense]

If you want a good book exploring this check out -A Damm Fine War -
War starts over Poland, US supporting the Free Polish government in Exile, the Soviets supporting the Provisional Government.
Eisenhower is killed in a plane crash, and Patton becomes Supreme Commander Europe.

[CalBear]

Originally Posted by DuQuense

If you want a good book exploring this check out -A Damm Fine War -
War starts over Poland, US supporting the Free Polish government in Exile, the Soviets supporting the Provisional Government.
Eisenhower is killed in a plane crash, and Patton becomes Supreme Commander Europe.

Now THAT could get ugly.

If Ike was killed, I would expect that the job would go to Marshall (who was close to getting it IOTL before Overlord)

[Mike Stearns]

Originally Posted by CalBear

Now THAT could get ugly.

Yeah. Patton in sole command of the entire Allied war effort is a pretty frightening prospect....

[mickeyw]

Even more frighting prospect is a President Patton in charge of the worlds only super power.

[TheMann]

Originally Posted by mickeyw

Even more frighting prospect is a President Patton in charge of the worlds only super power.

Or Douglas MacArthur.

[Kevin Renner]

We played with this idea in the Red Tide group on Yahoo. Somebody join and revive it.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/redtid...guid=187701020

[Citizen Samuel]

Originally Posted by DuQuense

If you want a good book exploring this check out -A Damm Fine War -
War starts over Poland, US supporting the Free Polish government in Exile, the Soviets supporting the Provisional Government.
Eisenhower is killed in a plane crash, and Patton becomes Supreme Commander Europe.

Patton becoming Supreme Commander? Britain wouldn't wear it.

[Citizen]

Originally Posted by DJC

What might be a plausible trigger?

The Berlin Blockade in 48-49? How you'd get that to turn nasty I don't know, maybe the air bridge fails and the Allies try to run the blockade rather than withdraw?