WI: Abraham Lincoln assassinated by the Baltimore Plot

[DSS]

WI, as Abraham Lincoln is riding through Baltimore in February 1861, he is killed by the Baltimore Plot? This is probably assuming the police doesn't find out about the Baltimore Plot before they plan to shoot him. Unless I'm mistaken, Hannibal Hamlin would become president. I'm thinking of writing a timeline about this.

[MerryPrankster]

The American Civil War began several months later, so if a link to the Confederacy and/or secessionists can be proven, all hell is going to break loose.

Particularly if Hannibal Hamlin is the president--wasn't he one of the Radical Republicans in later years?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltimore_Plot

It isn't entirely clear if there even was a plot though, let alone who was behind it.

[Pianomaker]

...in Baltimore, enroute to his inauguration:

1. Federal Constitutional Crisis - we've never had a President-elect die before. Probably Hamlin becomes President...probably.

2. More importantly, the assassination has probably galvanizes the north. The North's "let-em-go" politicians and newspaper's all are shut-up. The remaining border states become much less pro-Confederacy.

3. Some recently succeeded States, such as Tennessee and Virginia, maybe even reconsider and rejoin the Union.

4. Now imagine a Civil War with Lee, Jackson, and Stuart in Union Blue - with a much more activate and determined Union.

Maybe we then get a significantly shorter Civil War - with a Union victory dedicated to the martyred memory of President-elect Lincoln?

And, maybe, we don't get an Emancipation Proclamation - instead we get a slower (federally compensated?) emancipation...?

[Derek Jackson]

Virginia had NOT left the Union in February 1861 if I recall correctly. Keeping it in the Union changes a lot.

[DuQuense]

Marysland was divided, Eastern, western Shore an Southern Marysland where heavily Slave areas, Northern and Western Maryland were pro Union
[western MD had fewer than 100 slaves in the 3 Counties]
Annapolis and Baltimore Cities were slim majority Union.

Lincoln arrived in DC in February, a month before his Inaugural.
However due to the President inactivity Lincoln took over the War Planning, ordered the Burning of Norfolk naval yard, and sent troops to prevent Marysland succession, among other things.
However the vote did take place after the anti-Union April riots.

After the occupation of the city, Union troops were garrisoned throughout the state.

and the state was placed under direct federal administration.[8] Days afterward, North Carolina became the final state to approve secession (May 21). Delaware was occupied by Union troops due to its proximity to (and to prevent a repeat of the events that took place in) Maryland. Kentucky declared its neutrality (although it would eventually join the Union's side), and although Missouri was on the Union side, a Confederate government-in-exile existed in Arkansas and Texas. Maryland would remain under federal administration until April 1865, the end of the war.

Now one of the Advantages the Union had was Lincoln's Skill as a Politician, keeping his Cabinet pulling together, and his ability to steer Congress towards winning the War.

I don't think Hamlin was this good a politician

I doubt Hamlin coming from the Rule Bound Senate would have preempted the Military Command, allowing the CS to retain the 3rd largest Naval facility in the US.
While his heavy handed Anti Slavery would push not only OTL's 4 post Inaugural States into the arms of the Confederates, but Maryland and Kentucky as well.

[Stonewall's Lightning]

Originally Posted by Derek Jackson

Virginia had NOT left the Union in February 1861 if I recall correctly. Keeping it in the Union changes a lot.

Correct, Virginia and some of the upper southern states did not leave until later. Without Virginia, the confederacy will loose its strongest state, and the North has a very good chance of crushing the south early. Especially if Robert E. Lee is in charge of the Union Army.

[DSS]

Is there any way that, under a Hamlin Administration, the North could lose the civil war?

[Pianomaker]

While Lincoln arrived in February, early for his inauguration, it still wasn't to have taken place until March 3, 1861. And, certainly, the murder of the President-elect throws the Federal government (and the Nation) into an uproar

Also, Virginia didn't vote to for secession until April 17,1861.

If Lincoln is assassinated (with maybe his wife too?!) in Baltimore, in February 1861, I'll bet Virginia doesn't leave the Union.

This impacts other would-be Confederate states too.

In February 1861, the pro-secessionists in Tennessee's state government put it to a statewide vote - but it was rejected by a 54–46% margin. Only after Ft. Sumter was fired on, did Tennessee (informally on May 7 and formally in June 8, 1861) join the Confederacy.

And the State of Arkansas waited to May 6, 1861 to declare its secession.

Finally, North Carolina was (technically) the last state to secede on May 20, 1861.

Quite possibly, if there are still enough men of goodwill, this terrible event galvanizes the Nation and there is no Civil War.

Based of both Lincoln's public and private writings, I think we can say that he would have been willing to sacrifice his life in this manner if by that sacrifice he would have spared all the blood shed in the Civil War to come in OTL.

[King Nazar]

Originally Posted by Derek Jackson

Virginia had NOT left the Union in February 1861 if I recall correctly. Keeping it in the Union changes a lot.

Not only Virginia but Tennessee, Arkansas and North Carolina

[Derek Jackson]

I suspect that there would be a great reaction of outrage which would damage the slave power traitors.

However I think if this resulted in the easy defeat of the rebellion it would be harder to abolish slavery. Plainly Hamlin was more radical than Lincoln was in 1861- but the justification in OTL for effective abolition was the war situation.

[DSS]

Well, I don't think I'll write a timeline on this subject, but still, it's an interesting prospect. Anyone want to give it a shot?

It'd be interesting to see Virginia side with the Union.

[DuQuense]

Is there any way that, under a Hamlin Administration, the North could lose the civil war?

YES







Poor decisions on important appointments, troubles with Congress, poor International Relations, etc.

[castlemiller]

New to this board, but had to comment on the idea of the Lincoln Assassination; well not the assassination itself, but the idea of Virginia not leaving the Union and what happens with Robert Lee.

Now, I will honestly say that I probably don't know as much about the Civil War as alot of the posters on this board, but it's my opinion that Robert Lee would NOT have fought for the Union even if Virginia hadn't have joined the Southern States. He hated the idea of Americans fighting Americans; he only joined the Confederacy (first as an advisor before he became a field general) because Virginia seceded. If Virginia remains in the Union, I believe Lee would have simply retired his commission and stayed home.

This begs the question of where the war would've been fought. Most of the Eastern Theater in OTL was fought in the state of Virginia - does the fighting move further south into the Carolinas? Does the Confederacy attempt to take the fighting north into Virginia?

[rfenimore]

Lee resigned because he didn't want to take up arms against Virginia his home state. If Virginia stayed in Union, Lee would have been commander of Northern forces.