Greater Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere

[IchBinDieKaiser]

Let's say that Japan doesn't attack the U.S., and doesn't join the Axis powers, thereby remaining neutral in the war in Asia. Basically, if Japan stays out of European affairs, could the Greater Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere (GACPS) be formed? How long would it take to finally defeat both the Chinese Nationalists and Communists? How might the GACPS look today?

[lothaw]

You're going to have a Greater East Asian Co-Prosperty Sphere consisting of Japan, Manchukuo and Siam. Possibly Mengkukuo(Outer Mongolia) and Jingwei China depending on your POD.

That's hardly going to be a dominant bloc, unless Japan consolidates and effectively dominates China. Even then they're still going to be dependant on US goodwill.

Imperial Japan basiclly had to expand to survive, and the Co-Prosperity Sphere was just a nice looking public face to that. Japan would rather puppet a land than outright conquer it as to better combat the partisan problems.

As for this bloc lasting until today? I don't see it. Japan basiclly had one of two options by 1940 when the US cut off the oil. They could capitulate to the US and West in exchange for economic prosperity, or they could take the resources they need it.

Given their attitude of the that Japan won't stand back for anything, it's hardly surprising that Japan went to war.

But if you're bound and determined to have Imperial Japan around after WW2, they'd have to reach some compromise over China with the US. Possibly a puppet government based out of Beijing, recognition of Manchukuo & Mengkukuo in exchange for a pledge of no more interference in the Kuamantang's government in Nanjing.

So that'd give you Japan, Manchukuo, Mengkukuo, Siam and a rump China. Hardly a coalation the world will fear. Japan would probably go nuclear by the mid 50's but as the Cold War starts, they'd eventually find themselves more and more on the allies side.

You could see a Korean War type conflict over Mongolia, or possibly China as a whole if Mao can manage some more victories over the KMT.

[Solomaxwell6]

How is Japan going to make a real empire if it can't expand into Indonesia, Singapore, etc?

[Markus]

Originally Posted by IchBinDieKaiser

Let's say that Japan doesn't attack the U.S., and doesn't join the Axis powers, thereby remaining neutral in the war in Asia. Basically, if Japan stays out of European affairs, could the Greater Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere (GACPS) be formed? How long would it take to finally defeat both the Chinese Nationalists and Communists? How might the GACPS look today?

Forever! The Japanese tried hard to defeat China but failed. With some time it would have become an even bigger sinkhole for IJA manpower. No chance for a Japanese victory IMO.

[tallwingedgoat]

By 1941 it was clear the Japanese weren't going to take over China. Their objective was to get the Chinese government to accept a peace treaty on terms favorable to Japan. For this to happen they needed a decisive victory against the allied powers. Had the US accepted defeat, Chiang Kai-shek would probably come to terms with Japan reluctantly. If fact he repeatedly threatened to sign a separate peace to pressure Washington to give China more aid after Washington adopted the "Europe First" strategy.

[Wolfpaw]

The Japanese could offer to buy the Dutch East Indies and French Indochina with the subtle threat of invasion during WWII.

Also, Roosevelt had, only a few weeks before Pearl Harbor, decided to restart trade with Japan, which included turning their oil supply back on. His efforts to do so were delayed, however, by Cordell Hull.

[Typo]

citation plz

[Wolfpaw]

It was an excerpt from a memo from OTL cited in the essay "No Pearl Harbor? FDR Delays the War" by John Lukacs from What Ifs? of American History

I see the Japanese Empire as an embarrassing ally against communism whose human rights abuses are shown to the world during the war with the communists for Korea. Then NATO/Allied/UN pressure forces a "truth and reconciliation" end of apartheid-esque situation to reform Japan from it's Showa ways and the Greater East-Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere nations get Western support (an independent Manchuko, US allied; etc.).

Of course being part of the anti-communist Pacific front Japan post-reform would still get plenty of economic support from the West so that they're fleet could check Red China and the Soviet's Far East fleet. Eventually a Pacific equivalent of the EU or African Union would form after there's been some time for old wounds to heal.

[Bill Cameron]

Originally Posted by Faraday Cage

I see the Japanese Empire as an embarrassing ally against communism whose human rights abuses are shown to the world during the war with the communists for Korea.

FC,

How is there a Japanese Empire and a war against communism in Korea?

Korea is Japan's first colonial possession, but somehow they're evicted from there and presumably Manchuria while still keeping Taiwan, parts of China, and all the rest?


Bill

[Wolfpaw]

Originally Posted by Faraday Cage

Of course being part of the anti-communist Pacific front Japan post-reform would still get plenty of economic support from the West so that they're fleet could check Red China and the Soviet's Far East fleet. Eventually a Pacific equivalent of the EU or African Union would form after there's been some time for old wounds to heal.

How do the Communists take over China if Japan is still mucking about in there? And I highly doubt Japan would reform, human rights abuses or not. If they can get a hold of a stable oil supply (the Dutch East Indies, for example) they'll be largely self-sufficient, with a huge pool of manpower at their disposal along with countless national resources.

It's strange to think the Japanese would just surrender their imperial dominance because of a few sanctions or finger waggings from the West. They'd most likely not align with either party in a potential Cold War, but rather form their own Third Camp, though probably the weakest one of the three.

[Milarqui]

The Greater Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell to survive by staying out of WWII (well, they also didn't have it after joining WWII). Most of the planned GACPS was at the time either a colonial possession (India, Indochina, Dutch East Indies) or a Commonwealth nation (Australia, New Zealand). If they want to stay out of WWII, they would only have a couple of countries into it, countries that were mostly the puppets they had been creating, and there is no chance that this would become a superpower.

[9 Fanged Hummingbird]

Originally Posted by tallwingedgoat

By 1941 it was clear the Japanese weren't going to take over China. Their objective was to get the Chinese government to accept a peace treaty on terms favorable to Japan. For this to happen they needed a decisive victory against the allied powers. Had the US accepted defeat, Chiang Kai-shek would probably come to terms with Japan reluctantly. If fact he repeatedly threatened to sign a separate peace to pressure Washington to give China more aid after Washington adopted the "Europe First" strategy.

Problem: Chiang Kai-shek wasn't the leader of all of China. It's starting to be a cliche on this site where people assume he was more powerful and noble than he really was. If Chiang tries to give anything up to the Japanese, the Communists just gained a hell of a lot of support, and the other Nationalists might get rid of Chaing themselves. He wasn't even in control of his own faction, he was basically forced to work with the commies. And if Japan doesn't join the Axis, Nationalists might not even have to talk with the Japanese as the Germans would continue their support of them.

[Hendryk]

Originally Posted by lothaw

You're going to have a Greater East Asian Co-Prosperty Sphere consisting of Japan, Manchukuo and Siam. Possibly Mengkukuo(Outer Mongolia) and Jingwei China depending on your POD.

Better refer to it as Nanjing Nationalist China, the Nanjing regime, or at worst the Wang Jingwei regime. "Jingwei China" is a weird-sounding shorthand, since Jingwei is actually Wang's personal name. It's as though one referred to the Vichy regime as "Philippe France".

One should also keep in mind that the "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere" was simply a name for Japanese-occupied Asia. It wasn't a formal organization, and the closest it came to being formally set up was a conference between Japanese delegates and representatives of Japan's various puppet regimes in 1943.

[9 Fanged Hummingbird]

It's always irritating and/or hilarious when people get Chinese names the wrong way around. It's really groan-worthy when it happens in books, like Tom Clancy did that once before, at least. I mean, if you're gonna bother to write a book using a lot of technical info, can you at least check up a teeny bit on the language so you don't come off sounding like an idiot? Not saying the poster who got it wrong is an idiot, of course. Just wanted to rant.

Anyway, Nanjing China sounds like a cool name. But if Nanjing was to be the capital of a puppet government under Japan, that'd be the worst irony ever. Even then, doubt the Japanese could beat the Nationalists and the Communists when they are supported by Germany and Russia.

[Blue Max]

Well; if the Japanese are able to cut any kind of deal in China, or manage to subdue the furious Chinese Population, there may be some possibility of a Japanese puppet state holding on, in a South Vietnamese sort of fashion.

Even given the feat of the IJA storming Chunking and a basic level of control over China's urban areas, the Chinese are going to loathe and despise this control and look for a way out. If the United States is dumb enough to back Japan over its anti-communist credentials in the Cold War Era, China is indeed going Red in a large way.

The best that could be managed, I suppose, is if Japan was forced to deal with Chiang or his replacement and the Japanese simply wring a final level of concessions--this would probably mean Beiping and a North China puppet government. Thing is, I doubt that the IJA, earning a "victory" of this nature, will be satisfied with these concessions and will probably start another war.

In the end, Japan needs to take control of its armed forces before they commit it to a war without end.

[HJ Tulp]

Originally Posted by wolfpaw122

The Japanese could offer to buy the Dutch East Indies and French Indochina with the subtle threat of invasion during WWII.

Also, Roosevelt had, only a few weeks before Pearl Harbor, decided to restart trade with Japan, which included turning their oil supply back on. His efforts to do so were delayed, however, by Cordell Hull.

Why would France or the Netherlands sell their colonial jewels?

[lothaw]

Originally Posted by HJ Tulp

Why would France or the Netherlands sell their colonial jewels?

Technically the Japanesse occupation of Indochina was completely legal as Petain was the legitimate leader of France at the time.

As for the DEI, I doubt it.

As for Wang Jingwei's puppet regime(and yes, you caught me on the name reversal ), as corrupt as the KMT is, you could feasibly get enough of it's bigwigs to go along with it if Japan wins a major victory or two. Perhaps even with the promise of going after the Communists. Certainly there was no love between the Communists and Wang Jingwei.

As for FDR supposedly being about to resume trade with Japan, I didn't know that. Certainly I'd like to see a citation on that one, but that could be a very, very interesting POD.

[Wolfpaw]

Oh, I'm not sure as to why the Dutch and French would be willing to sell their colonies. Maybe they Depression hits them harder IITL. I'm not sure. But with a European war going on, neither the French nor the Dutch would probably relish having to fight for their colonies. Again, it all depends on whether or not Japan's offer is "Sell us your colonies. Or else."

As for the citation on FDR normalizing relations with Japan, here's the excerpt where it is mentioned in an essay by John Lukacs.

"On November 21, 1941—it was the Friday after Thanksgiving Day—President Franklin Delano Roosevelt took up a pencil on his desk and wrote this memorandum:

6 MONTHS

1. U.S. to resume economic relations—some oil and rice—more later.
2. Japan to send no more troops to Indochina or Manchurian border or any place South (Dutch, Brit. or Siam).
3. Japan to agree not to invoke tripartite pact even if U.S. gets into European war.
4. U.S. to introduce Japs to Chinese to talk things over but U.S. take no part in the conversations.

LATER ON PACIFIC AGREEMENTS"

From there, Roosevelt sent the memorandum to Cordell Hull, who many historians believe did all he could to delay/quash the aims of the memorandum.

[Solomaxwell6]

Originally Posted by wolfpaw122

Oh, I'm not sure as to why the Dutch and French would be willing to sell their colonies. Maybe they Depression hits them harder IITL. I'm not sure. But with a European war going on, neither the French nor the Dutch would probably relish having to fight for their colonies. Again, it all depends on whether or not Japan's offer is "Sell us your colonies. Or else."

Still unlikely to happen. Ships can still be spared; while the Pacific War was primarily an American show, there was substantial European aid. Once the war in Europe is over, France, Britain, and the Netherlands are going to want their colonies back, and they'll be able to actually focus over there. War weary, yes, but I doubt they'd just bow down to a relatively minor power. And if Japan isn't working with Germany this time around, that means it's not going to get support. Not that they got much support the first time around, mind you, but it's not like Germany and Japan were completely independent (Yanagi Missions provided both sides with needed resources). So Japan isn't going to have much of a way of backing up its threats.