AH Challenge: Turkic Muslim Russia

Turkic Muslim Russia

Is it possible to realistically create a TL in which the Turkic Khanates that existed in OTL Russia in the middle ages survive to the present day? My idea for a POD would be that Timur Lang decides not to attack the Golden Horde, which IOTL greatly weakened it and allowed Muscovy (Moscow, the ancestor of modern Russia) to successfully break away from and eventually conquer it. Any othes? (Kazan, Astrakhan, the Crimea, or all three surviving into the present also counts)
 
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Is it possible to create a TL the Turkic Khanates that existed in OTL Russia in the middle ages survive to the present day? My idea for a POD would be that Timur Lang decides not to attack the Golden Horde, which IOTL greatly weakened it and allowed Muscovy (Moscow, the ancestor of modern Russia) to successfully break away from and eventually conquer it. Any othes? (Kazan, Astrakhan, the Crimea, or all three surviving into the present also counts)

You might have to create a secure of dynastic line Khans, because after Janibeg, there was a continually violent turnover in succession and feuding between the Hordes nobility. Perhaps Tini Beg Khan, whom succeeded Uzbeg, can anticipate and survive the conspiracy instigated by his brother Janibeg. Or not get killed during his campaign against the Chagatai Khanate. Whichever way he died.

You'll also need to prevent the rise of Muscovy by maybe causing a situation that leads to Ivan Kalita getting executed. Under him, the Moscovite state rose considerably in scope.

Dissident Russian cities that are massacred and depopulated by the Hordes forces could be resettled by Turkic, Khwarezmian, and Persian Muslim subjects.

You'll need to retard the political development of the rest of the Russian duchys, forming a barrier between the Horde and the Lithuanians and the Teutonic Order. The longer the Russians are kept competing with each other, some of them are bound to consider converting to Islam to gain the favour of the Khans.

I was also thinking that the Golden Horde Khans can create a military force akin to the Abbassid Era Mamluks or the Ottoman Janissaries, by recruiting Alannic/Ossetian and Slavic slave children to train as their personal elite private army. The descendents of which would bolster the Muslim demographic across the Khanate.

I hope this helps.
 
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A much earlier POD would have the Khazars stomp on the Rus in the tenth century, rather than the other way around, and then have the Khazar elites convert from Judaism to Islam.
 
You might have to create a secure of Khans as well, because after Janibeg, there was a continually violent turnover in succession and feuding between the Hordes nobility. Perhaps Tini Beg Khan, whom succeeded Uzbeg, can anticipate and survive the conspiracy instigated by his brother Janibeg. Or not get killed during his campaign against the Chagatai Khanate. Whichever way he died. Whichever way he died
Ha, I hadn't thought of that. Anyway, from what I know, that seems like a good POD-Tini Beg isn't executed by Jani Beg, so the Golden Horde develops a more stable line of succession and doesn't descend into the Khan-a-year anarchy that the death of Jani Beg caused. Being more stable, it fends off Lithuania (which IOTL defeated the Horde and annexed much of its western territory, including Kiev). Thus, being stronger, it does not get taken over by Khan Tokhtamysh of the neighboring White Horde in 1380 (in OTL, he sucessfully conquered it, unifying the two states. Five years later, he made the disastrous decision to to to war with Timur Lang, who destroyed much of the Horde's army and pillaged its major cities)

You'll also need to prevent the rise of Muscovy by maybe causing a situation that leads to Ivan Kalita getting executed. Under him, the Moscovite state rose considerably in scope.
My impression was that Muscovy was able to break away from the Horde because the political events above had fatally weakened it. I figured that just making the Horde more stable and stronger would prevent the power vacuum Muscovy was able to exploit.


Dissident Russian cities that are massacred and depopulated by the Hordes forces could be resettled by Turkic, Khwarezmian, and Persian Muslim subjects.


You'll need to retard the political development of the rest of the Russian duchys, forming a barrier between the Horde and the Lithuanians and the Teutonic Order. The longer the Russians are kept competing with each other, some of them are bound to consider converting to Islam to gain the favour of the Khans.

I'm not aiming for the complete destruction of the Russian civilization-just for that big Turkic-populated state in the Volga river valley to survive to the present day. I assume it would keep the same policy towards the Russian princes that it had previously used-playing them off against each other, and using them as a buffer against Poland and the Teutonic Knights. Eventually I suspect some would convert to Islam and be assimilated, and others would remain Christian and slavic.
 
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Damn! Someone else voiced this. I was wanting to surprise people. I've been working on this issue but I guess I might as well admit it now. Suffice to say, it will be happening in Raptor of Spain.
 
I'm not aiming for the complete destruction of the Russian civilization-just for that big Turkic-populated state in the Volga river valley to survive to the present day. I assume it would keep the same policy towards the Russian princes that it had previously used-playing them off against each other, and using them as a buffer against Poland and the Teutonic Knights. Eventually I suspect some would convert to Islam and be assimilated, and others would remain Christian and slavic.

What I was thinking about was that the occasional OTL uprisings against the Golden Horde's authority would be punished in the usual way. But to help along the progress of Islamicizing Russia, certain areas would be colonized by Muslims transported from the central Asian territories. I meant for the social degradation of Russia before some of its leaders would convert, and by maybe the 1400 to 1500's Slav Russian culture would combine with Muslim Tataro-Turkic culture. In the 16th Century, the Muslim demographic of the Khanate would be a cosmopolitan mix of Turks, Tatars, Circassians, Slavs, and Persians. Slavery of non-Muslims captured from abroad might take the place of OTL Russian serfdom.

If this happens, what would the Russian Khanate's relationship be with the Ottoman Empire?
 
What I was thinking about was that the occasional OTL uprisings against the Golden Horde's authority would be punished in the usual way. But to help along the progress of Islamicizing Russia, certain areas would be colonized by Muslims transported from the central Asian territories. I meant for the social degradation of Russia before some of its leaders would convert, and by maybe the 1400 to 1500's Slav Russian culture would combine with Muslim Tataro-Turkic culture. In the 16th Century, the Muslim demographic of the Khanate would be a cosmopolitan mix of Turks, Tatars, Circassians, Slavs, and Persians. Slavery of non-Muslims captured from abroad might take the place of OTL Russian serfdom.
I was also thinking that the Golden Horde Khans can create a military force akin to the Abbassid Era Mamluks or the Ottoman Janissaries, by recruiting Alannic/Ossetian and Slavic slave children to train as their personal elite private army. The descendents of which would bolster the Muslim demographic across the Khanate.
Both of these sound very plausible to me-the Russian Khanate would have ample contact with the Ottoman Empire-I can imagine them importing the Janissary idea especially. I expect that the the Russian Khanate and the Ottoman Empire would compete over the Caucasus and Black sea the way Russia and the Ottomans did. But in this TL, both the Ottomans and the Khanate are Sunni Muslim, so I expect there wouldn't be nearly as much animosity as their was between OTL Russia and the Ottomans.

What gets really interesting is the relationship between Europe and the Russian (or I suppose Kipchak would be better) Khanate-it wouldn't be directly exposed to any European states except Sweden and Poland, at least at first. Then things get really interesting-does the Khanate have the same successes against these two countries as OTL Russia does (Considering the military prowess of the early modern Ottomans, I would suspect yes). Then what? Does the Khanate modernise like OTL Russia did? What exactly is the effect of having a giant Muslim country out of the direct line of sight of most European expansionists? Does it develop politically and socially like OTL Russia (a large overbearing Khan opposed by European-influenced reformers?) Does it ultimately get drawn into an experement with Communism like Russia?

What are your ideas? I must say, this is beginning to turn rather interesting.
 
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Both of these sound very plausible to me-the Russian Khanate would have ample contact with the Ottoman Empire-I can imagine them importing the Janissary idea especially. I expect that the the Russian Khanate and the Ottoman Empire would compete over the Caucasus and Black sea the way Russia and the Ottomans did. But in this TL, both the Ottomans and the Khanate are Sunni Muslim, so I expect there wouldn't be nearly as much animosity as their was between OTL Russia and the Ottomans.

What gets really interesting is the relationship between Europe and the Russian (or I suppose Kipchak would be better) Khanate-it wouldn't be directly exposed to any European states except Sweden and Poland, at least at first. Then things get really interesting-does the Khanate have the same successes against these two countries as OTL Russia does (Considering the military prowess of the early modern Ottomans, I would suspect yes). Then what? Does the Khanate modernise like OTL Russia did? What exactly is the effect of having a giant Muslim country out of the direct line of sight of most European expansionists? Does it develop politically and socially like OTL Russia (a large overbearing Khan opposed by European-influenced reformers?) Does it ultimately get drawn into an experement with Communism like Russia?

What are your ideas? I must say, this is beginning to turn rather interesting.

Sorry I couldn't reply earlier. I was out of town yesterday.

If the Balkans is at the mercy of the Ottomans and Golden Horde/Kipchak
Khanate, maybe this will allow the Ottomans of Mehmed the II to devote more military resources to the conquest of southern Italy in the 1480's. This is in regard to another discussion in this forum where the Ottomans manage to secure the vassalization of the Emirate of Granada before its conquest by the Kingdom of Castile in January 1492. If the Ottomans have a powerful ally, more powerful than the OTL Crimean Khanate, they shouldn't have as much bother from the Hungarians, the Wallachians, and the Holy Roman Empire.

About three months ago, I posted a thread about Gold Horde Russia. One of the earlier POD's was the assassination of the Ilkhanid emir and warlord Chupan, whom acted as the power-behind-the-throne for the Il Khan Abu Sa'id. With the death of their best general, the Il Khanate of Iran was conquered in the north-east by the forces of Uzbeg Khan. The Il Khan's Syrian territories were taken by the Golden Horde's Mamluk allies, the powerful Jalayirid family took power in southern Iran, while becoming for a time the nominal subordinates of the Golden Horde, whilst east Iran would become the temporary domain of the Chagatai Khanate.

The occupation of northern Iran by the Golden Horde would be a temporary affair, where it would become independent under the rule of a rebellious Golden Horde Emir, or under a native dynasty. Until then, the Volga region would see further, if steady colonization by Persians at the behest of the Kipchak Khans. This is meant to add to the strengh of the Khanate before conversions could take place among the Slavic population.

With a secure future for the Golden Horde, the Tatars might enter the territories of Lithuania as conquerers, rather than refugees.
 
As the Islamicized Golden Horde had a pretty good diplomatic relationship with the Mamluk Sultanate of Egypt, and were common enemies of the Il Khanate of Persia, I think that knowledge of their ally's ancestry might encourage the stable Golden Horde regime to adopt the Abbassid practice of recruiting slave-soldiers.

With the reduction of the Russian duchies to mere protectorates, the ruling families may consider formally converting to Islam and intermarrying with their Tataro-Turkic overlords. What would this mean for the native Russian peasants? Would Dhimmitude for the rural populace reflect the OTL Russian serf system anyway, or reflect the general situation of the Christians within the Ottoman Empire?

With the Balkans being militarily dominated on two fronts by the Ottoman Empire and the Kipchak-Rus Khanate, how far would slave-raiding expeditions into eastern Europe go? As far as Germany, perhaps?

With a strong Muslim power being felt as far as the Baltic as well as the Balkans, what would this do for the cause of the Protestant Reformation in Europe?
 
If the Balkans is at the mercy of the Ottomans and Golden Horde/Kipchak
Khanate, maybe this will allow the Ottomans of Mehmed the II to devote more military resources to the conquest of southern Italy in the 1480's.
Sounds plausible. The Tatar Khanate could probably keep Poland, Lithuania, Hungary, and Sweden all busy. Now, the question is, what is Europe's reaction to Ottoman armies running around the Italian pennensula, and probably getting a bit too close to Rome for the Pope's comfort? I would suppose the Pope would try to call a crusade to expel them-does it work?

With a strong Muslim power being felt as far as the Baltic as well as the Balkans, what would this do for the cause of the Protestant Reformation in Europe?
Well, seen as how the Ottoman Empire during its hayday scared Europe senseless, and might have indirectly contributed to the Reformation (Martin Luther wrote something to the effect that the Turks had been sent by God to punish the decadent Catholics for their sins), potentially a lot. I imagine two giant Muslim Empires, both achieving huge runs of success against Christians and one threatening Rome itself, would be a major boost to the Reformation. Especially if Mehmed manages to sack Rome. Heck, considering the success the Reformation achieved in OTL without anything remotely like this happening, I can imagine the fall of Rome being the straw that breaks the Church's back.

With the reduction of the Russian duchies to mere protectorates, the ruling families may consider formally converting to Islam and intermarrying with their Tataro-Turkic overlords.
About three months ago, I posted a thread about Gold Horde Russia. One of the earlier POD's was the assassination of the Ilkhanid emir and warlord Chupan, whom acted as the power-behind-the-throne for the Il Khan Abu Sa'id. With the death of their best general, the Il Khanate of Iran was conquered in the north-east by the forces of Uzbeg Khan.

The occupation of northern Iran by the Golden Horde would be a temporary affair, where it would become independent under the rule of a rebellious Golden Horde Emir, or under a native dynasty. Until then, the Volga region would see further, if steady colonization by Persians at the behest of the Kipchak Khans. This is meant to add to the strengh of the Khanate before conversions could take place among the Slavic population.
I like to keep my POD's to a minimum, preferably one. (At present, I'm working with two-Tini Beg Khan has a long reign over the Horde, and his descendents establish a stable government and servicible line of secession. And something happens to Ivan Khality-haven't figured out what, maybe Uzbeg Khan starts wondering where all the taxes he's supposed to be getting from Muscovy are going). But all of this sounds good, maybe I'll have an Ilkhanate POD too (though I don't want to rip off your timeline, I prefer to be original :)). Or perhaps the colonists are recruited from the Volga river valley (old Volga Bulgaria-I understand this area had a majority Muslim-Turkic population at the time), the Caucasus, Transoxania, and the numerous refugees created by the rise and collapse of Timur's Empire. Eventually, the Russian slavic population would convert to Islam (or at least a majority would) and many of them would assimilate into Tatar culture (the majority of the Ottaman Turkish population were, as I understand it, assimilated Greeks)

What would this mean for the native Russian peasants? Would Dhimmitude for the rural populace reflect the OTL Russian serf system anyway, or reflect the general situation of the Christians within the Ottoman Empire?
Dhimmitude didn't work like that in any OTL Muslim Empires, I doubt it would in this one. I suspect what would ulitimately evolve would be something like the Ottoman Millet system-the Christians being tolerated and having some autonomy, but still subordinate to Muslims. Interesting idea though.

With the Balkans being militarily dominated on two fronts by the Ottoman Empire and the Kipchak-Rus Khanate, how far would slave-raiding expeditions into eastern Europe go? As far as Germany, perhaps?
Possibly. I'm debating just how militarily successful to make the Tatars. Do they take Novgorod (which probably falls under the Swedish protection/rule by necessity)? How much of Sweden? How much of Poland/Lithuania? Do they go right through Poland and attack the East of the Holy Roman Empire? (Seems a little overoptimisitic)

With a secure future for the Golden Horde, the Tatars might enter the territories of Lithuania as conquerers, rather than refugees.
Yes, I expect so. And instead of an embattled minority in Russia, they would be its rulers.
 
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Sounds plausible. The Tatar Khanate could probably keep Poland, Lithuania, Hungary, and Sweden all busy. Now, the question is, what is Europe's reaction to Ottoman armies running around the Italian pennensula, and probably getting a bit too close to Rome for the Pope's comfort? I would suppose the Pope would try to call a crusade to expel them-does it work?

I understand that the French, despite being Catholics, had a pretty good relationship with the Ottomans, and could be a supporting factor. And even the Habsburg Emperors might like to take advantage of a desperate Roman Church, and invade Italy from the north, ostensibly to "protect" the Pope, but doing this to capture Italian land and to get the Papacy under their thumb once and for all. The Italian republics might fear losing their independence, and so could make a pact with the Ottomans.

Well, seen as how the Ottoman Empire during its hayday scared Europe senseless, and might have indirectly contributed to the Reformation (Martin Luther wrote something to the effect that the Turks had been sent by God to punish the decadent Catholics for their sins), potentially a lot. I imagine two giant Muslim Empires, both achieving huge runs of success against Christians and one threatening Rome itself, would be a major boost to the Reformation. Especially if Mehmed manages to sack Rome. Heck, considering the success the Reformation achieved in OTL without anything remotely like this happening, I can imagine the fall of Rome being the straw that breaks the Church's back.

A successful Turkish invasion of Italy might divide the Papacy into those that desire to retain their relative autonomy by cleaving to the Ottomans, and agreeing to act as their puppets, and those whom side with the French or the Germans, and become their puppets.

I like to keep my POD's to a minimum, preferably one. (At present, I'm working with two-Tini Beg Khan has a long reign over the Horde, and his descendents establish a stable government and servicible line of secession. And something happens to Ivan Khality-haven't figured out what, maybe Uzbeg Khan starts wondering where all the taxes he's supposed to be getting from Muscovy are going). But all of this sounds good, maybe I'll have an Ilkhanate POD too (though I don't want to rip off your timeline, I prefer to be original :)). Or perhaps the colonists are recruited from the Volga river valley (old Volga Bulgaria-I understand this area had a majority Muslim-Turkic population at the time), the Caucasus, Transoxania, and the numerous refugees created by the rise and collapse of Timur's Empire. Eventually, the Russian slavic population would convert to Islam (or at least a majority would) and many of them would assimilate into Tatar culture (the majority of the Ottaman Turkish population were, as I understand it, assimilated Greeks)

I imagine that by the 1600's, Slavo-Kipchak sailors would be visiting the ports of Scandinavia, and England. Siberia would be settled by slave laboureres abducted from Europe, and the Kipchak Empire (?) would be bordering Mongolia and China.


Dhimmitude didn't work like that in any OTL Muslim Empires, I doubt it would in this one. I suspect what would ulitimately evolve would be something like the Ottoman Millet system-the Christians being tolerated and having some autonomy, but still subordinate to Muslims. Interesting idea though.

I suppose the Christian lay-folk living in the countryside would be no better than serfs, though, except administrated by the Russian Orthodox Church. Illiterate, living on the breadline, restricted to their local area, because only Muslims are permitted to ride horses. And if it is anything like the Ottoman Millet system, boys and even girls could be taken from their families to serve the Khan.

Possibly. I'm debating just how militarily successful to make the Tatars. Do they take Novgorod (which probably falls under the Swedish protection/rule by necessity)? How much of Sweden? How much of Poland/Lithuania? Do they go right through Poland and attack the East of the Holy Roman Empire? (Seems a little overoptimisitic)

The Ottomans did besiege Vienna at one point. I think the Kypchak-Rus Khanate may have more reason to. The Ottomans have an empire spanning three continents. The Golden Horde/Kipchak Khanate have theirs centred in Eurasia, and could probably allow some subordinate Turkic clans to launch independent lightning raids into eastern Europe, with the odd military expedition hitting as far as the Holy Roman Empire.

The Swedes control of Novgorod could be worn down eventually before the city succumbs to a siege.
 
The longer the Golden Horde survives, I wonder if they would have a reason to relocate their capital from Sarai in the Volga region to somewhere closer west around the Black Sea? Even the Russian duchies might just become semi-autonomous Emirates or Ulus' after the native Knayaz' conversion to Islam.

As the Golden Horde/Kipchak Khanate would be controlling the Caucasus region, would this make the Golden Horde the main supplier of white infidel slaves to the Ottoman Empire and the other Asian Muslim states? Or if the Ottoman Sultans still conquer Mamluk Egypt as per OTL, wouldn't they be able to entice the Kipchaks with African slaves in return for Slavic and Christian Circassian ones?

A possible Janissary-like corps of the Kipchak Khan might well help along the Islamization of the Christian Slav population. Surviving Kipchak Janissaries (for lack of a more original title) would be allowed to raise families, although their sons wouldn't be permitted to follow in their fathers footsteps. Slavery in Tatar society might encourage slaves to adopt Islam.
 
I understand that the French, despite being Catholics, had a pretty good relationship with the Ottomans, and could be a supporting factor. And even the Habsburg Emperors might like to take advantage of a desperate Roman Church, and invade Italy from the north, ostensibly to "protect" the Pope, but doing this to capture Italian land and to get the Papacy under their thumb once and for all. The Italian republics might fear losing their independence, and so could make a pact with the Ottomans.
I can imagine some of them doing this. On the other hand, there's the ones like Vience and Genoa who have lots of territory in the Balkans, who would probably be inclined to resist the Ottomans for fear of losing it.

A successful Turkish invasion of Italy might divide the Papacy into those that desire to retain their relative autonomy by cleaving to the Ottomans, and agreeing to act as their puppets, and those whom side with the French or the Germans, and become their puppets.
Remember, the Papacy is only one person :), so a lot depends on whose Pope at the time.
On the other hand, the spectacle of Catholic govenrnments and part of the Catholic church "betraying" Christianity for the "heathen" Turks would be propaganda gold for Protestants.

I suppose the Christian lay-folk living in the countryside would be no better than serfs, though, except administrated by the Russian Orthodox Church. Illiterate, living on the breadline, restricted to their local area, because only Muslims are permitted to ride horses. And if it is anything like the Ottoman Millet system, boys and even girls could be taken from their families to serve the Khan.
My impression was that most Muslim countries were fairly tolerant, religiously, except when they happened to be ruled by fundamentalists. I can see this a little bit, especially during the colonization era, though.

The Ottomans did besiege Vienna at one point. I think the Kypchak-Rus Khanate may have more reason to. The Ottomans have an empire spanning three continents. The Golden Horde/Kipchak Khanate have theirs centred in Eurasia, and could probably allow some subordinate Turkic clans to launch independent lightning raids into eastern Europe, with the odd military expedition hitting as far as the Holy Roman Empire.
Perhaps they could do it jointly. I imagine there'd be a lot of cooperation between the two.

The longer the Golden Horde survives, I wonder if they would have a reason to relocate their capital from Sarai in the Volga region to somewhere closer west around the Black Sea? Even the Russian duchies might just become semi-autonomous Emirates or Ulus' after the native Knayaz' conversion to Islam.
I'd thought of that. Kazan, maybe?

As the Golden Horde/Kipchak Khanate would be controlling the Caucasus region, would this make the Golden Horde the main supplier of white infidel slaves to the Ottoman Empire and the other Asian Muslim states? Or if the Ottoman Sultans still conquer Mamluk Egypt as per OTL, wouldn't they be able to entice the Kipchaks with African slaves in return for Slavic and Christian Circassian ones?
Yes, I expect both of those would be the case.

A possible Janissary-like corps of the Kipchak Khan might well help along the Islamization of the Christian Slav population. Surviving Kipchak Janissaries (for lack of a more original title) would be allowed to raise families, although their sons wouldn't be permitted to follow in their fathers footsteps. Slavery in Tatar society might encourage slaves to adopt Islam.
Both of these seem like good ideas. The Kipchak/Tatar Empire could well reach to the Pacific like OTL Russia.
 
I can imagine some of them doing this. On the other hand, there's the ones like Vience and Genoa who have lots of territory in the Balkans, who would probably be inclined to resist the Ottomans for fear of losing it.

This would be a tough one for the Genoese and Venetians. Be dominated by the French, Aragonese, or Germans, or become Ottoman vassals?!

Remember, the Papacy is only one person :), so a lot depends on whose Pope at the time.
On the other hand, the spectacle of Catholic govenrnments and part of the Catholic church "betraying" Christianity for the "heathen" Turks would be propaganda gold for Protestants.

There has been some violent disputes among potential Popes in the past. If the Ottomans are successful in Italy during the 1480's, the Catholic Clergy inside Rome might decide to surrender to the Turkish forces, rather than be destroyed. Those Bishops and Cardinals outside of Rome might view their brethren as being corrupted, and could decide to remake the Church in one of the more powerful of the Catholic states in Europe.

And not entirely sure how this would pan out, but with Rome in Muslim hands, Antipopes could be chosen from resident Catholic Cardinals in the kingdoms of Castile, France, and maybe England?! If this begins in the 1480's, it would pre-empt Martin Luther's efforts. OTOH, Martin Luther could rise high in Holy Roman Empire with its own resident Pope.

My impression was that most Muslim countries were fairly tolerant, religiously, except when they happened to be ruled by fundamentalists. I can see this a little bit, especially during the colonization era, though.

I reckoned that the Dhimmis in the countryside would be worse off. Those Russian Orthodox Christians living in Moscow, Novgorod, and Tver, on the other hand, would be fairly well off in some respects. Certainly, they would be employed as merchants and diplomats in Europe in the service of the Kipchak Khans, as the Phanariot Greeks were for the Ottoman Sultans. And any Italian Catholics residing in cities like Caffa in the Crimea could be similarly employed.

Both of these seem like good ideas. The Kipchak/Tatar Empire could well reach to the Pacific like OTL Russia.

They could have trading stations for fur-trappers in the Aleutian Islands by the late 1600's. Then again, maybe Siberia and Central Asia might be enough territory for them. The possibilities with this TL are alot wilder than I thought it would be.
 
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The Ottoman invasion of Italy in the reign of Mehmed II, a year before his death. Martin Luther was born in 1483. If the Italian invasion was a success for the Turks at that point, what would that do for the Protestant cause, if the Roman Catholic Church was divided between those in Italy formally serving the Ottomans, and those living throughout Europe? Would this give way to alternating and "nationalized" forms of Catholic Christianty?
 
The Ottoman invasion of Italy in the reign of Mehmed II, a year before his death. Martin Luther was born in 1483. If the Italian invasion was a success for the Turks at that point, what would that do for the Protestant cause, if the Roman Catholic Church was divided between those in Italy formally serving the Ottomans, and those living throughout Europe? Would this give way to alternating and "nationalized" forms of Catholic Christianty? July 19th, 2009 01:23 PM

I don't know if I like the idea of a separate Catholic church for every country. I can imagine a secession dispute forming, eventually ending with, say, three Popes-a pro-French one in Avignon, a pro-HRE one in a German city (the Pope flees from Italy to Avignon and begins to fall under French influence. Fearing a church controlled by their rivals the French, the HRE sets up an anitpope). The third one would be an Ottoman puppet in Turkish-occupied Rome (or else the Ottomans could try to force some sort of union between Catholics and Orthodox, under the control of the Orthodox Patriarch in Constantinople. Catholics and Orthodox outside of the Ottoman Empire reject it out of hand). This infighting continues into the 16th century, and the church's disunity destroys people's confidence in it, leading to a Protestant Reformation more successful than in OTL.

Christendom in the early 16th century is in dire straits-the Tatars attacking Sweden, conquering Poland, and threatening the HRE from the East, and the Ottomans in the Italian pennensula, taking it with the help of some Italian city states and the opposition of others such as Genoa and Venice-and also attacking the HRE from the Balkans, and eventually gaining a platform to do so in Italy. How does this situation work itself out? This could be a very interesting AT.
 
I don't know if I like the idea of a separate Catholic church for every country. I can imagine a secession dispute forming, eventually ending with, say, three Popes-a pro-French one in Avignon, a pro-HRE one in a German city (the Pope flees from Italy to Avignon and begins to fall under French influence. Fearing a church controlled by their rivals the French, the HRE sets up an anitpope). The third one would be an Ottoman puppet in Turkish-occupied Rome (or else the Ottomans could try to force some sort of union between Catholics and Orthodox, under the control of the Orthodox Patriarch in Constantinople. Catholics and Orthodox outside of the Ottoman Empire reject it out of hand). This infighting continues into the 16th century, and the church's disunity destroys people's confidence in it, leading to a Protestant Reformation more successful than in OTL.

All the top dogs of Europe in the Fifteenth Century, France, the Holy Roman Empire, and Castile, would be willing to use the possible political advantages for their states to host the Papacy within their own lands. But nations such as England and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth would be aghast at having to follow the Papal decrees of French or German puppets.

Plus Henry VIII declared himself as the Head of the Church of England due to the Pope had forbade him to divorce Catherine of Aragon, so this could just be another reason.

The united Kingdoms of Castile and Aragon would only be too pleased to possess their own Pope on a leash. Especially if this happens a decade before the beginning of their colonial ventures.

For the Holy Roman Empire, however, this situation might be the making or the breaking of them. The Hapsburg Emperors would surely favour having their own Papal puppet, although this might not entirely disqualify the prospects of the Protestant movement.

The Italian Republics of Genoa and Venice are sort of wildcards here. Venice has quite alot to lose if they go against the Ottomans.


Christendom in the early 16th century is in dire straits-the Tatars attacking Sweden, conquering Poland, and threatening the HRE from the East, and the Ottomans in the Italian pennensula, taking it with the help of some Italian city states and the opposition of others such as Genoa and Venice-and also attacking the HRE from the Balkans, and eventually gaining a platform to do so in Italy. How does this situation work itself out? This could be a very interesting AT.

The Tatars would have to control of some of the warmer sections of the Baltic coastline before they can even build a navy to threaten the Swedes.

The Holy Roman Empire might become the bulwark against Kipchak expansionism...if the Emperors could successfully unite their German subjects.

I think the Serene Republic of Venice, which has holdings in the Balkans and the eastern Mediterranean might have to swallow their pride and ally themselves with the Ottoman Empire, in order to preserve their fragile empire, as well as recognise the Ottoman-sponsored Pontiff at the Lateran Palace. What I like about the Ottoman occupation of Italy is that they'll be close enough to the Emirate of Granada to lend them military aid. With the shelf-life of Granada extended, they could send ships to America right after their discovery by the Spanish and Portuguese. With that in mind, as allies of the Ottoman Empire, the Venetians might be permitted to send merchant mariners to do business across the Atlantic.
 
With the further fracturing of the Catholic Church in this TL, the Protestant movement might spread more quickly, and probably adopt the full hierarchy of the old Papacy. I definately see France retaining their own pet Pope, with the other states being either the Holy Roman Empire or the Kingdom of Castile, given Queen Isabella's exceptional devotion.

Actually, OTOH, the Holy Roman Emperors might be more ready to endorse Lutheranism in this TL. Establish their own country's Imperial Church. With the Ottomans and the Kipchaks posing themselves as a perpetual threat, the Hapsburg Emperors might use the popular Lutheranism to help centralize the German states.
 
I've taken another look at this idea, and I'm planning on posting it as a TL sometime in the next month, after I've done some more work on my Louisiana TL.

The POD will be that Tini Beg Khan of the Golden Horde survives and manages to successfully pass power onto his son (who I haven't named yet :). Tini Beg was the Khan after Uz Beg Khan, who converted the Horde to Islam. In OTL, he was killed by brother Jani Beg, whose assination marked the beginning of a period of anarchy which significantly weakened the Horde). Tini Beg's son also rules for a while, and introduces Persian administrative practices (perhaps as a result of a short-lived occupation of northern Persia) into the Horde, eventually making it about as stable as the Ottoman Empire. (And with Tokhtamysh never becoming ruler, the Horde doesn't start some stupid, completely avoidable war with Timur.) As a result, the Golden Horde is able to defeat Muscovy in the late 14th century, destroys it, and repopulates the city with Turkic and Persian colonists. The Horde then begins to keep a tighter lease on its Russian vassals, and expands the colonization program to cover the lands of the inevitable rebels (while continueing to play the rest off against each other). Eventually, Russian princes start converting to Islam to gain favor with the Khan and are integrated into the Horde's administrative structure. Many commoners also convert for various reasons, and gradually assimilate into the dominant Tatar-Turkic culture. Slavic Christians become a minority.
In the 15th and 16th centuries, after the fall of Constantinople to the Ottomans, the Horde (or Kipchak Empire, as I think I'll call it) imports some military ideas (such as the Janissary corps) from the Ottomans and agressively expands into Sweden and Poland-Lithuania, as well as allying the the Ottomans against Hungary. With a stable ally at their rear, and the Safavids butterflied away, the Ottomans become more westward focus, taking Italy and propping up Granada. Where the TL will go from here I haven't decided yet, but European history is going to be very different :)

Thoughts?
 
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