Gerald Ford Wins 1976 Presidential Election

So what if Gerald Ford had won the 1976 Presidential Election and what would be it's effect?


Gerald Ford/Robert Dole (Republican): 276 Electoral Votes
James Carter/Walter Mondale (Democrat): 261 Electoral Votes

Yes, I know the captions are wrong but still.

Ford will get the blame for the 1970's economy, don't know about Iran, but what is for certain is...

NO REAGAN

To downplay butterflies, lets say the 1970's goes as it did under Carter. The economy keeps spiraling and Iran happens. In that case, you'd have a similar situation come election time and all that facing Ford if he decides to run or Dole who will likely get the nomination if Ford decides not to run. Also, Ford isn't really a gripping personality, similar with Carter, which would also translate over to Dole too. You may also see a "Dump Ford/Dole" movement similar to the one to Dump Carter since Ford has the stigma of troubles not to mention the Nixon issues still, and Dole is likely to be viewed as a continuation of Ford. Such movement will likely support Reagan, but I think it'll fail in the end.

Who runs against Ford/Dole is anyone's guess. I'd say it'd be Carter (who is not the incompetent sissy many try to paint him as; rather, he was a victim of circumstances outside of his control) who would have the outsider factor still or Ted Kennedy. Likely Ford/Dole will lose, though, both because of the world factors being blamed on Ford and party fatigue.

If Paul Volcker or a similarly competent Chairmen of the Fed is appointed, you'll see the same economic recovery you did in the 1980's OTL minus the mass explosion and deregulation. And thus that President will probably be a two termer.

The Soviets still have the same chances of collapsing by this point, though.

Ford couldn´t run anymore in 1980 because of the term limit. So it will be Dol or Reagan. Reagan nearly beat Ford for the nomination in 1976, so we can assume that he can beat Dole in 1980.
Don´t see Carter agai in 1980. He was already an outsider in 1976 and he had his chance. So it will be the year of Ted Kennedy.
Reagan vs. Kennedy. I think it would be a close race.
Another thing: I don´t think it there any Automatism for the Fall of the USSR. Actually, I think the West at the beginning of the 1980th was in an critical situation. Public support for NATO military strategy was collapsing and the wrong man in the Whit House could have done a lot of damage. And I think Edward Kennedy would be the wrong man.

Could you imagine the Centennial? The chances for falling down stairs would be endless!

He could fall off the Centennial train, for pete's sake!


(Sorry...had to be a bit smarmy and dickish. I apologize.)

freivolk said:

Ford couldn´t run anymore in 1980 because of the term limit. So it will be Dol or Reagan. Reagan nearly beat Ford for the nomination in 1976, so we can assume that he can beat Dole in 1980.
Don´t see Carter agai in 1980. He was already an outsider in 1976 and he had his chance. So it will be the year of Ted Kennedy.
Reagan vs. Kennedy. I think it would be a close race.
Another thing: I don´t think it there any Automatism for the Fall of the USSR. Actually, I think the West at the beginning of the 1980th was in an critical situation. Public support for NATO military strategy was collapsing and the wrong man in the Whit House could have done a lot of damage. And I think Edward Kennedy would be the wrong man.

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I seriously doubt Ted Kennedy would live long enough to do any good/damage. A couple reasons for this is he is a Kennedy, and a lot of people remember the incident in 1969 which cost a young lady her life. Though I think after another Ford administration, he could overcome it and defeat who ever the GOP puts up including Reagan, if for no other reason than Party fatigue. Perhaps President Ted Kennedy is shot and killed by John Hinckley in 1981, and his Vice President assumes office

The question of who the VP will be vital to the Democrats, perhaps John Glenn or Lloyd Bentsen will get the call, maybe even Robert Byrd (though that is doubtful he has too much power in the Senate by this point).

Most likely, with the same effects from OTL going on, you have an unpopular Ford as the economy falls apart. Reagan enters the GOP primary to challenge Dole from the right, though I'm not sure if he topples him or not. If he does, the General Election might be a bit closer, but the Republicans are still probably doomed because of their unpopular incumbent.

On the Democratic side, you have Ted Kennedy, a possible second run by Jimmy Carter, Jerry Brown, John Glenn, and I would suppose much of your roster from the 1984 primary campaign, plus Carter. Out of a field that crowded, you're going to have two strong frontrunners, which I would peg as Carter, the moderate, and Kennedy, the liberal. Carter lost four years ago, so I would think that the Dem primary electorate hands the nomination to Teddy, who picks a moderate, Southern Democrat (most likely not Carter) as his Veep, probably someone like Reubin Askew of Florida.

freivolk said:

Ford couldn´t run anymore in 1980 because of the term limit. So it will be Dol or Reagan. Reagan nearly beat Ford for the nomination in 1976, so we can assume that he can beat Dole in 1980.

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Ford could have run. The man was never elected in the OTL for God's sake and in this TL, he was only elected once. Remember, he only became President in 1974 because Nixon resigned. He could run in 1980, but it'd just be 6 years of Ford already (2 years for Nixon's term, 4 for his own) and Ford would be rather old. Then again, that didn't hurt Reagan. I doubt Reagan will beat out either Ford or Dole should either decide to run; Ford because he was already President, Dole because he would be Ford's successor both for the office and the moderate section of the party.

Don´t see Carter agai in 1980. He was already an outsider in 1976 and he had his chance. So it will be the year of Ted Kennedy.
Reagan vs. Kennedy. I think it would be a close race.

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He'll still be an outsider in 1980 and will still have his chance. The Democrats don't really have too many strong possibilities for 1980 besides Carter and Kennedy and Carter is cleaner.

I also very much doubt Reagan. He simply can't get nominated against Dole or Ford in my opinion.

Another thing: I don´t think it there any Automatism for the Fall of the USSR. Actually, I think the West at the beginning of the 1980th was in an critical situation. Public support for NATO military strategy was collapsing and the wrong man in the Whit House could have done a lot of damage. And I think Edward Kennedy would be the wrong man.

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The USSR fell because of a roughly 40 year Cold War which had eaten away at it and over burdened it. Therefore, the USSR has the same chances of collapsing following the 1980's under any other President who may have served in the 80's. It may not collapse in the end, but it has the same chances of collapsing that it did in the OTL by this point.

Emperor Norton I said:

Ford could have run. The man was never elected in the OTL for God's sake and in this TL, he was only elected once. Remember, he only became President in 1974 because Nixon resigned. .

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No, he couldn´t!

1. No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once

Ford didn't serve for more than two years. He served for two years.

Emperor Norton I said:

Ford didn't serve for more than two years. He served for two years.

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August 9, 1974 to January 20, 1977 is 2 years, 164 days. He could not have run in 1980.

The '76 Election may well have been one of those election years where winning the election really could end up being the worst thing that could happen to their party. More than likely whoever could have won the election in 76 besides carter would have lost in 80 (or his party lost in the case of President Ford.

big_ben_mi said:

The '76 Election may well have been one of those election years where winning the election really could end up being the worst thing that could happen to their party. More than likely whoever could have won the election in 76 besides carter would have lost in 80 (or his party lost in the case of President Ford.

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This is going to sound odd...but Chevy Chase would've had more time to work on his impression on Saturday Night Live.

If you recall, he handed it off to Dan Akroyd who did Carter. Perhaps we could've had a few years of funny Chevy Chase-as-Ford stuff.

Emperor Norton I said:

Ford didn't serve for more than two years. He served for two years.

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Math is hard!

Ford Served from August 74 to Jan 77. More than 2 years

'Fraid I agree with those who say that Ford could not run in 1980. Been proven already. Just because he didn't serve three years doesn't mean that he didn't serve two years. He served for - like what Mark E. said - 2 years and 164 days. The only reason Lyndon Johnson, who became president after JFK was assassinated on November 22, 1963, could have been elected again in 1968 was because he had not served more than the last two years of JFK's first term (1961 - 1965). November 22, 1963 to January 20, 1965, is one year and 59 days - not two years. However, LBJ was not elected in 1968 because, along with his unpopularity about the Vietnam War, of his poor showings in the New Hampshire Democratic primaries early in 1968. Ford could be elected in 1976, but not in 1980.

big_ben_mi said:

The '76 Election may well have been one of those election years where winning the election really could end up being the worst thing that could happen to their party. More than likely whoever could have won the election in 76 besides carter would have lost in 80 (or his party lost in the case of President Ford.

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Exactly. Both Ford and Carter had the same position on the Panama Canal, and the winner would bear the onus of being the president who "gave it away." Inflation was out of control and neither demonstrated a policy to control it. By 1977, the Iran crisis was an uprising waiting to happen and no president could have stopped it diplomatically.

The election of 1980 would see a change of parties in the white house, no matter what.

Between 1981 and 1983 the economy was destined to change. The big drivers of inflation were real estate and petroleum. The end of the baby boom and the consolidation of households (caused by single boomers getting married) would send a rippling affect, quieting real estate inflation. More and more older cars were being replaced with fuel efficient models, stabilizing the increase in need for oil. Then oil prices responded. Inflation was going to slow down with or without Reaganomics. Had Ted Kennedy been elected president in 1980, events would have had a far-reaching effect on the perceived fiscal policies of the two parties.

Wait. Are people really going to elect a guy back into office that they never elected to office in the first place? Does that make any sense? Did he even want to run for reelection in the first place?

The History Keeper said:

Wait. Are people really going to elect a guy back into office that they never elected to office in the first place? Does that make any sense? Did he even want to run for reelection in the first place?

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Sure. Ford almost won in 1976 after all and if he had inherited the office 165 days later than OTL he could have run in 1980. I fail to understand what you mean.

I have to agree with those who say Reagan's challenge wouldn't mount. Dole it is. He's Midwestern, so he probably selects a Northerner or Southerner. I'm going to guess Bush to get the Texas electoral votes.

Democrats put up Kennedy. Bentsen's looking like the best running mate, for moderation, and swing state southern votes, with Askew a close second.

Kennedy-Bentsen in a close election, but not as close as Carter's OTL.

He doesn't get assassinated. Reasons being: He's a Kennedy, security is tighter. Hinckley is no better a shot than in OTL (and possibly this is butterflied). Economy growing.

We enter the 90s with President Bentsen, who probably gets defeated in 92 after the inevitable recession and party fatigue by a younger, non-Senator Fiscal Conservative with Moderate Social Positions...
i.e. Jack Kemp or Pete Du Pont or Pete Wilson.

Interesting possibilities with this. The neocons have never moved firmly into the Republican camp, they're actually still in the party of Scoop Jackson most likely. In 1984 the GOP will have run another Goldwater (Helms?? Pressler?), most likely, and lost badly. The Republicans keep more of the Rockefeller / liberal Republican wing. And if Kemp gets elected, what you have is essentially a fiscal conservative party with tolerant social values... i.e. the Republicans are a more libertarian party, while the Democrats don't stand for specific moral issues, but do stand for big government.