The Rains Of Shiloh April 1862

P.O.D By early afternoon on April 1862 A fierce rainstorm blows in over the battlefield. turning the fields and the roads to a muddy glue. Albert Sidney Johnston is not wounded as per OTL and the rains will prevent Buell's army from joining Grant. The rain stops during the morning of April 7th. Buell sends a message to Grant stating that he will be unable to reach him before the morning of April 9th.

Can A.S Johnston's attack defeat Grants forces? and if so how might this affect the overall picture of the war?

Thoughts?
Jason Sleeman

Has this one been done already?

2 days and no reply, perhaps I'm covering old ground again?

Yeah, I tried posting the WI the Confederate forces west of the Mississippi would have arrived to fight at Shiloh if they had simply left ealier like they were ordered too, and not attacked and lost at Pea Ridge. Basically Johnston would have nearly 20,000 more men. A better strategy could have been work out, instead of a simple mass charge, and Grant forces at Shiloh destroyed or captured on the first day. Alot of people disagreed though, but I think that they couldnt really envision the changes to the battle. It would be radically different from OTL.

Sorry I missed this earlier. So a big storm before the battle of Shiloh. And Buell is slowed down. Guess what? So is Johnston's army. But wait there's more!

As Napoleon learnt at Waterloo, much to his chagrin, wet soggy ground is excellent for the defense. In other words, the attack itself would have been slowed down. And far more importantly, the Southern artillery would have been stuck in the mud & unable to support any attack.

Ironically, the mud would have also stopped many of the Union troops from running. So you may get the situation that most of the Union troops, realising that they're stuck where they are, actually stand & fight.

Either way the battle is a lot harder than OTL. Grant's army can't run whilst the Rebs are very slow in attacking. Furthermore the Union will have their artillery whilst the Rebs won't. I'd expect a bar fight type of scenario. In other words a slugging match. Alas for the Rebs, they suffer higher casualities than the OTL. More importantly, in the end, both sides will exhaust themselves, but Grant's army will still hold the field. I'd expect the Rebs will later withdraw knowing that they can't hold out against the Union when Buell arrives with fresh troops the next day or so.

I've actually been there (Shiloh) in the rain; most of the battleground is open, mud-prone grass. Cannon would be limited, but could probably move through the woods....

Simon

simonbp said:

I've actually been there (Shiloh) in the rain; most of the battleground is open, mud-prone grass. Cannon would be limited, but could probably move through the woods....

Simon

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On the contrary, much of the battlefield isn't open. It's a complete mix of woodland & a few open fields. One of the reasons why you had a superb Union defence at the Hornet's Nest is due to this fact. Also the Hornet's Nest is also an example of where the Reb artillery was left behind, due to the woodlands, & the Union was able to hold off against a number much greater than themselves.

Now add in enough rain that'll turn the ground into mush, which is what I'd dare say Jason meant when he said Buell is signifcantly slowed, as against a morning shower, & the action at the Hornet's Nest would basically be repeated all over the battlefield at Shiloh. Now at some point the Rebs might be able to finally get their artillery into the action, but it'll be too little, too late.

Technically the battle will end in stalemate due to mutual exhaustion. But then Buell's forces will eventually arrive whilst the Rebs will have no reserve. At this point, either the Rebs will withdrawl, or Grant will counterattack as per OTL. Either way, Grant can claim a victory albeit an even more costly one than the OTL.

A trench battle?

I wonder if seeing themselves immoble and unable to press forward with an attack and fully aware that Buell is on his way, Might not Johnston decide to entrench after the first day. I'm assuming that Johnston is smart enough not to commit his men in futile attack in a muddy quagmire after being repulsed by Grant's forces. A trench defense might allow a stalemate to take place.

Jason Sleeman said:

I wonder if seeing themselves immoble and unable to press forward with an attack and fully aware that Buell is on his way, Might not Johnston decide to entrench after the first day. I'm assuming that Johnston is smart enough not to commit his men in futile attack in a muddy quagmire after being repulsed by Grant's forces. A trench defense might allow a stalemate to take place.

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Good point. I wonder though, considering we're talking 1862, whether a general like S.A. Johnston would have entrenched?

Furthermore, if he had had waited, the Rebs would be outnumbered by 41 000 to 67 000, due to the very fact that Buell will arrive at some point, albeit a day or two later...

A.S Johnston

No A.S Johnston was old school... DMA once again i must concur with your assessment. It would have been a Napoleonic style advance and quite possibly even more of a bloody disaster for the South. And were it so it may have signicantly accelerated Grant's advancement.

well once again one of my P.O.Ds proves implausible..... sigh back to the drawing board

Thanks All

Jason Sleeman-Professional Glamrocker

Jason Sleeman said:

No A.S Johnston was old school... DMA once again i must concur with your assessment. It would have been a Napoleonic style advance and quite possibly even more of a bloody disaster for the South. And were it so it may have signicantly accelerated Grant's advancement.

well once again one of my P.O.Ds proves implausible..... sigh back to the drawing board

Thanks All

Jason Sleeman-Professional Glamrocker

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Actually Jason, why not stick with the heavy storm etc, so yes Buell's forces are delayed by a day or two, but have it so Sherman believes what his picketts are telling him (instead of completely rejecting their reports as per OTL) & that the Rebs are advancing on his position. Grant, as per OTL, is up in Savannah that morning so Sherman takes the initiative & attacks. In other words teh mud now works against the Union completely.

Furthermore, Sherman's attack is, more or less, an adhoc affair (as it has to be organised quickly with Sherman thinking that he might gain an advantage & surprise the Rebs), but it smashes piecemeal into Johnston's highly organised attack. As a result the Union Army of the Tennesse is more or less destroyed indetail whilst Grant is left with a mess by the time he arrives (not too disimilar to OTL). However, because of Sherman's actions, about the only thing Grant can do, by the time he reaches Shiloh, is order an evacuation of what's left of his army & retreat across the river to meet up with Buell.

Now although Johnston gains a victory at Shiloh, his army is pretty well exhausted by this stage &, needless to say, the Union controls the river, so any further Reb advance is more or less impossible anyway. So you get a Rebel victory followed by a stalemate.

Is any of that any help?

If it rains in the Tennessee-Northern Mississippi region a couple of days before the battle, it could keep the Confederate troops from moving at all. The effects on the battle and would depend on the timing and how much area was covered by the rain. It's possible that everything below Grant's army and the Confederate troops get covered in water, but the area the Buell is coming through gets little, if any, and he can get to Shiloh before the battle. If Buell and his forces had arrived before the battle and he was in command of the Union forces at the start of the battle, how could that effect the outcome?

Buell Unites W Grant Prior to the battle

Hyperion,


I suspect being outnumbered by over 25,000 men Johnston would not attack and would beat a hasty retreat back to Corinth and perhaps seek another opportunity.


DMA, O.K lets try your scenario. I agree Sherman could be headstrong enough to get himself into serious trouble. O.K Johnston wins at high cost
lets say a few thousand fewer casualties than OTL battle of Shiloh. Here's how I could see it.

- Halleck is furious and sees this as his chance to remove Grant, Sherman is revered for his "brave stand but is wounded by shrapnel in the chaos of battle and his wounds will put him out of field action for at least 6 months.

-Buell assumes field command and prepares to land the combined forces 59,000 effective troops at Pittsburg Landing for a second go

Meanwhile A.S Johnston recieves reinforcements from Earl Van Dorn's force across the river bringing his effective force to nearly 50,000

-stage is now set for Second Shiloh April 23rd 1862

Weather is clear 60 degrees, and the ground is dry

Buell's attack is fully anticipated by Johnston who procures the best ground and prepares defensive positions.

who wins this one folks?

Jason

A Shiloh 2 under Buell's command?

To be honest I haven't got a clue as I know very little about Buell's command abilities. At least there won't be any Reb surprise attack that's for sure.

To me, thus, it all depends who attacks whom. The Union, after such an earlier defeat, I'd say would be cautious. Yet they may still land at Pittsburg Landing (not too disimilar to OTL), but would probably form up along Grant's OTL final position as this was a very good defensive line.

If Buell can't land at Pittsburg Landing, then it'll be to the north at Crump's Landing. Either way, though, the Union will be cautious & careful in their approach. Buell, & this is the only thing I really know about his generalship skills, will take his time & be careful in his advance. Once the picketts have made contact, he'll probably go onto the defence.

From this point, it really depends who goes onto the offensive. So if I was go make a guess, whoever attacks loses the battle.

Yeah, That's a tough call

Hard to say although given Northern politics in such a situation I would say Buell would be compelled to make an attack although perhaps such a slim numerical advantage would prevent him from doing so.

Johnston could bide his time after a victory to seek an opportunity or he could hold his ground. If the Union wanted to take the rail junctions at Corinth Miss, they would be compelled to meet the Rebel army in the vicinity of Shiloh.

I agree again with DMA. the attacker will lose and Buell will be compelled to play that role.

Result - 2nd Shiloh- April 23rd 1862

Buell assaults the Rebel positions- his strategy to try to outflank Hardee on the left which almost succeeds until N.B Forrest arrives with his dismounted cavalry to stem the advance

the diversionary attack on the Rebel center is costly for the yankees and Buell's assault peters out by 1pm

at 1:10 PM Breckinridge leads a counter assault which routs Buell's force back to Pittsburg Landing. Union forces withdraw northward under the protection of the gunboats on the evening of the 23rd

Forces Engaged- Buell U.S:59,123
-Johnston CSA 49,874

Casualties U.S 11,121
CSA 6,597

In the aftermath of 2nd Shiloh Johnston shadows Buell until the later halts his Army near Mufreesboro TN on May 2nd 1862

Thoughts?

Jason

Well if Buell does attack, it'll be a Union defeat. That wouldn't surprise me. So I can agree there, although I'm not confident at all that Buell will attack (mind you I'm making that decision based upon my limited knowledge of Buell fore other than the fact that he was slow & cautious.

But Buell wouldn't withdraw any further than Savannah. The USN still controls the river so Johnston is stuck south of Savannah whilst Buell turns the town into a fortress. We get back to stalemate.

An interesting butterfly effect here could be the future of Grant. Afterall, technically he didn't lose at First Shiloh, it was Sherman, & at Second Shiloh Buell is defeated. Grant is still there, thus, on the sidelines & hasn't lost a battle yet. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Lincoln orders Halleck to reinstate Grant to army command.

Maybe Shiloh 3 is coming up? Grant v Johnston. If such is the case, my money is on Grant. Expect an operation similar to Vicksburg.

my knowledge of civil war naval operations

well two gaps in my knowledge prevent me from going further forward with this beyond 2nd shiloh

DMA- where exactly is Savannah in relation to Shiloh?

Also i'm not familiar enough with U.S riverine operations of that period to devise a Rebel POD counterweight to deal with the gunboat fleet controlling the river

do the rebels even possess any vessels or batteries in the area with which they could contest control?

I'll need some info on these points if I am to proceed

thanks all

Jason

Would Johnston even know that Buell had arrived if Buell got to the area before the 1st battle of Shiloh began, say 5 hours before the battle? Just because the Union could put more men into the fight doesn't mean the Rebs wouldn't back down. In a lot of major battles the Union had more men, and it didn't help.

Savannah is about 6 miles upstream, on the Tennessee River, from Pittsburg Landing on the eastern side of the river. Considering the size of the river around here, there's next to nothing, other than prayer, which the Rebs could do to stop the USN controlling the river.

The Union's gunboats were more than capable of keeping the Rebs honest. They would have had a pretty tough time crossing the river (impossible I'd say). Furthermore, even if they could cross somewhere else, where the USN wasn't around, Savannah could still be held & supplies brought into the town via the river.

Pushing Buell back to Murfreesboro is unlikely insofar as the distance involved. We're talking at least 100 miles. But if Buell was going to withdraw over such a long distance, it'll be north along the river towards Fort Donelson. That route would be safer, ensuring one flank is protected by the river, whilst Fort Donalson itself would be in Union hands & thus a safer option overall.

However, I don't think Buell will withdraw any further than Savannah for reasons stated earlier. It's safer to fortify Savannah & wait for reinforcements (akin to Chattanooga after the Battle of Chickamauga). Withdrawing from Savannah would also ensure Buell's sacking by Lincoln having lost, not only a battle, but also a large area of territory. Either way, though, I'd say Buell will be sacked & possibly Grant reinstated.

Hyperion said:

Would Johnston even know that Buell had arrived if Buell got to the area before the 1st battle of Shiloh began, say 5 hours before the battle? Just because the Union could put more men into the fight doesn't mean the Rebs wouldn't back down. In a lot of major battles the Union had more men, and it didn't help.

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Yes, this is true, but you have to take into account the area around Shiloh. It was a mix of open farm paddocks & woodland. So what? I hear you say. Well it's where they can camp everyone. Afterall a camp of 67 000 or so men is going to be pretty big. We are talking about the population of a city here. Now as it was, not all of Grant's men could be camped together. Only four of the six divisions were together when the Rebs attacked at Shiloh - that's Sherman, Prentiss, McClernand & Hulbut. The division of WHL Wallace was to the north at Pittsburg Landing, whilst the division of L. Wallace was more than four miles away at Crump's Landing.

Now considering the OTL camping arrangements, & the restrictions thereof, you'll discover that Buell's men won't be able to camp at Shiloh as there won't be any space for them. Instead, you'll find that they'll be spread out towards the north. That'll mean another division or two at Pittsburg Landing & the rest up at Crump's Landing.

Yet how does this effect the battle?

Well it'll mean that the OTL battle is more or less repeated as Buell's divisions are not involved with the initial Reb attack. Instead they, along with the two divisions belonging to the two Wallace's, are well are truely forewarned. So I'd imagine the WHL Wallace's division will establish their OTL defence line at Pittsburg Landing, but be reinforced immediately by two of Buell's divisions (as they were camped nearby). Later in the day, this defence line is further reinforced by L. Wallace's division plus the remaining two divisions of Buell's army. In other words, this defensive line is three to four divisions stronger that the OTL.

The result of the battle will more or less mirror the OTL. The Reb attack overwhelms the Union defenders at first, but grinds to a halt. When the Reb attack is reorganised, in the afternoon, to purse the remaining Union men off the field at Shiloh, it runs into the final OTL Union defence line at Pittsburg Landing. Here, the Rebel attack is blown away & the Rebs have to withdraw to their OTL line. The next morning, Grant counter-attacks with overwhelming numbers. The battle ends as per OTL.

How about this: In the OTL, when Grant's army originally arrived in the area, before Buell's army arrived, he went about training his men, and didn't set up any serious defensive positions. What would establishing better defenses and better lookouts do to him?