WI Kerensky surrendered

The March revolution in 1917 was obviously a response to discontent. Food an fuel was scarce and the army was in a horrible state but Kerensky decided to fullfill Russia's committment to the western allies and he ignored the public's desire for the war to end.

Suppose that Kerensky makes peace and gets a mini-Brest-Litovsk which carves off just Congress Poland, the Baltic States and perhaps Finland(with the intent of taking them back some dat. What happens to Russia and the western front? Can Germany now win WW1 and can the Russian Republic survive?
 

Hnau

Banned
If Kerensky made peace early in 1917, like April or May, I think that a CP victory is very likely. There's a lot of troops ready to ship out to the Western Front or the Italian Front. They'd probably focus on Italy, the weaker of the two, knock them out of the war, and then pull all their troops to fight on the Western Front before the Americans are able to fully mobilize. Would Greece still join the war? Maybe so... I don't know how you would be able to hold Venizelos back.

But, making a peace so swiftly is entirely against Kerensky's nature. He was pro-war through and through. This POD would require some transformation of his character.
 
Btw, I forgot to ask: will such a Russian Republic be a big Weimar which will eventually lapse into dictatorship, or can Russian democracy survive?
 
Btw, I forgot to ask: will such a Russian Republic be a big Weimar which will eventually lapse into dictatorship, or can Russian democracy survive?

No it can't. The communists will still take over , the war was only one thing in a long list of reasons they wanted Kerensky to go.

However if the Central Powers [/i]do win,which I doubt,the Reds might lose the civil war.
 

wormyguy

Banned
No it can't. The communists will still take over , the war was only one thing in a long list of reasons they wanted Kerensky to go.
But Kerensky had a much greater support base among the general population - especially the peasants, than the Communists, an advantage he squandered by failing to end the war. If he ended the war in time, he may well have been able to secure a strong enough powerbase and public support to defeat a Bolshevik coup attempt.
 
But Kerensky had a much greater support base among the general population - especially the peasants, than the Communists, an advantage he squandered by failing to end the war. If he ended the war in time, he may well have been able to secure a strong enough powerbase and public support to defeat a Bolshevik coup attempt.

Unfortunately most coups have little support from the public.

Also as said before the whole things contrary to Kerenskys nature.
 
If Kerensky had surrendered there could be butterflies in Russia. The Bolsheviks would still be a big threat, and the revolution and the civil war are still very plausible, but there would be butterflies....

For the war; Germany would have more troops earler. But I doubt they'd be able to get a knock out blow on the Western Front. With the British blockade in action and the Yanks coming, Germany would need to break through, and I don't see them doing that.
 
For the war; Germany would have more troops earler. But I doubt they'd be able to get a knock out blow on the Western Front. With the British blockade in action and the Yanks coming, Germany would need to break through, and I don't see them doing that.

The German economy is less damaged than it would be months later and the Yanks haven't arrived.

Still, it would have been smarter to knock out Italy next (the other weak Allied power) and use that for psychological intimidation.
 
If Kerensky had made peace with the Central Powers it is possible that the Russian Army would have remained in tack and have been less radicalized. The ending of the war would allow him to carry out reforms and undermine the extreme left. It is possible that the 2nd revolution would have been crushed and Russia might have become more of a democratic state rather than a communist one.

The ending of the war earlier would have allowed both Germany and Austria-Hungary to shift forces to the west. It is a good possibility that Italy could have been knocked out of the war. Leading to a possible peace settlement.
 
Almost certainly yes. The Petrograd soviet was initially in Menshevik hands and even in the later July days Lenin was urging caution. Had the June offensive not taken place and the government had sought negotiations then it would have survived. However the reaction of Britain and France may have been hostile and the situation of dual power would have to be resolved.

The soviets would have eventually come into conflict with the government but the Bolsheviks may not have won control of them.

The effect on the rest of the war would to be the release of German, Austrian and Turkish troops to fight on other fronts but the Americans would be on their way
 
The German economy is less damaged than it would be months later and the Yanks haven't arrived.

Still, it would have been smarter to knock out Italy next (the other weak Allied power) and use that for psychological intimidation.
Still, they'd need that knock out blow in France. Without it everything would still end as OTL. The American involvement has already strengthened the confidence of the British and French troops, enough for them to hold their positions.
 

Hnau

Banned
Allied involvement? Only if the Czech Legion revolts, which probably wouldn't happen here, its much less anarchic. With the border further west there won't be any fear of German seizure of war materiel. Kerensky calls for an election to a Constituent Assembly as soon as it is possible... August, maybe? Meanwhile the Soviets whither away, they try to host their own elections to the Supreme Soviet or what-have-you, but it isn't as popular. The Socialist-Revolutionaries win, Kerensky probably pushes himself to become Chairman, keeping the Right-SRs in power with Kadet support. After the elections, Kornilov and others lead a military campaign to stomp out the Soviets, leading to a short civil war and White Terror against the extreme left-wing. Finland declares its independence and there is a bloody war in the country to keep it part of the Republic of Russia.

Meanwhile, Germany uses its extra troops to knock out Italy, pressure Greece, and provide support to the Middle Eastern Front during 1917. In early 1918 they launch an attack on the Western Front which allows them to capture territory all the way to the border of Paris, close enough to shell the populace. The government moves to Bordeaux, and American troops are coming in... but the French government changes, becomes Socialist or what-have-you, and agrees to an armistice. Britain and America last a while longer, but eventually come to terms now that France is out of the equation.

When all is said and done, the Central Powers have more things to worry about, holding down their territories, than to rekindle the war against Russia, which many planned to do. The Ottomans want the Caucasus and Central Asia, the Germans want to push the borders of their puppet state Poland, take the rest of the Baltics and create an independent Ukraine and an independent Finland. Romania wants Bessarabia. Instead, there are just very cold relations with the new country.

The Russian Republic will be hard-pressed. Kerensky will not be eager to give the national minorities the autonomy that was given in OTL, so there will be revolts and unrest. Reparations to the Central Powers will keep the economy weak throughout the 1920s (unless they receive American loans, which may create a Great Depression later on, however). They are probably also blamed for the defeat of the Allies. Actually, all these problems might see Kerensky ousted sooner rather than later for a Menshevik or Left-SR Chairman, who would pursue some more radical socialist policies and deal with the minorities a little better.

I wouldn't try this timeline out, though. Kerensky wasn't your guy, it really was out of character for him. He believed in a democratic revolutionary war to sweep Europe clean of monarchy and capitalism. He was definitely pro-war through and through, and the sad thing is, he wasn't very capable at all in waging war.
 
Could Kerensky be persuaded Russia is not in the condition to wage the "democratic holy war" just yet and he should wait for the next round?

That just gave me a really evil idea--Kerensky becomes the next war's "Big Bad," launching the next war to destroy European monarchies in the event of a Central Powers survival.

(If the Germans knock out Italy but stay on the defensive in the West, could they bleed the Allies to death?)
 
Could Kerensky be persuaded Russia is not in the condition to wage the "democratic holy war" just yet and he should wait for the next round?

That just gave me a really evil idea--Kerensky becomes the next war's "Big Bad," launching the next war to destroy European monarchies in the event of a Central Powers survival.

(If the Germans knock out Italy but stay on the defensive in the West, could they bleed the Allies to death?)
Nope, each day the British blockade will hurt Germany more, and the Yanks are coming. Knocking out Italy means nothing, it's France that's important.
 

Deleted member 1487

They can't knock out Italy, because the front is too far forward with inadequate rail lines and not nearly enough rolling stock. The reason that Caporetto offensive stopped where it did was that they simply could not advance any more than they did. Supply is just not there to knock Italy out of the war militarily. Now combine the exit of Russia with Caporetto and a peace deal, then yes, Italy can bail if given good enough terms. Actually the best use of the manpower for the German would be on the Western Front, where it actually mattered.

Take advantage of the French Muntinies. Don't actually attack the French, because they will still defend, just not attack and they have the better defensive doctrine, which will just rack up casualties.
No, the best use of the manpower would be to counter Paschendaele with a counter offensive. Don't advance right into the British build up, rather, let them advance into an operational vacuum and then launch an attack at another part of the line that now has no reserves. The French are not going to assist, so this would be a perfect time to strike where it hurts with overwhelming force.
 
But they could have gone CP under the right circumstances I suppose. They wanted Bessarabia as much as they wanted Transylvania. Like Italy I suppose they will bow under pressure and join who they think will win and give them what they want.
 
Nope, each day the British blockade will hurt Germany more, and the Yanks are coming. Knocking out Italy means nothing, it's France that's important.

What if the Yanks come and die in huge numbers against the German lines?

Plus if the Russians leave the war early and in better shape, Germany can buy grain from them, blockade-free.
 

wormyguy

Banned
But they could have gone CP under the right circumstances I suppose. They wanted Bessarabia as much as they wanted Transylvania. Like Italy I suppose they will bow under pressure and join who they think will win and give them what they want.
Romania went Entente in 1916, before the suggested POD (or the February Revolution, for that matter).
 
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